Model Output Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

http://www.meteociel...N72-7.GIF?03-17 - Blimey.

Looks fairly normal for early March.

[MR EXTREMES]

looking pretty good easterly all the way right into fi more so for the south of england southeast england should be pretty dam cold lol.

edit sorry gfs.

ukmo aswell -10 uppers of whole of the southeastern corner if only it went futher out also noticed theres nice plume of even colder air to our east.

Edited March 3, 2010 by badboy657

[nick sussex]

Better agreement between the models as to where the shortwave heads south but the easterly still looks a blink and you'll miss it affair!

The high is too far south and realistically the only area that could see some snow showers is the se as this region is likely to have the coldest 850's together with a stronger flow off the North Sea but again this relies on there being no further southward shift of the high.

In terms of any backedge snow off the occlusion this looks marginal and it would help if the precip was heavier, theres still room for some small changes at this timeframe but it looks once again that the main cold thrust will head into the continent. In such a cold recent winter its surprising that theres not been a single potent easterly of reasonable duation.

Edited March 3, 2010 by nick sussex

[MR EXTREMES]

Better agreement between the models as to where the shortwave heads south but the easterly still looks a blink and you'll miss it affair!

The high is too far south and realistically the only area that could see some snow showers is the se as this region is likely to have the coldest 850's together with a stronger flow off the North Sea but again this relies on there being no further downward shift of the high.

in terms of any backedge snow off the occlusion this looks marginal and it would help if the precip was heavier, theres still room for some small changes at this timeframe but it looks once again that the main cold thrust will head into the continent. In such a cold recent winter its surprising that theres not been a single potent easterly of reasonable duation.

i dunno the high seems to wobble about so it could be a case of cold air on and off for a week or so.

[Wilks]

I see next week being an almost carbon copy of this week.

[nick sussex]

i dunno the high seems to wobble about so it could be a case of cold air on and off for a week or so.

Yes but the cold upper air is really in the earlier output, even though the high meanders about and edges north again with the GFS by this time theres not the cold upper air pool to the east to draw on.

The GFS output in mid winter would be very cold right upto 180hrs with cold surface pooling over the Continent but during March this area warms quickly. Normally unless you get a very rare PV dropping into eastern Europe then its really northerlies that produce the best spring wintry conditions.

[cooling climate]

Better agreement between the models as to where the shortwave heads south but the easterly still looks a blink and you'll miss it affair!

The high is too far south and realistically the only area that could see some snow showers is the se as this region is likely to have the coldest 850's together with a stronger flow off the North Sea but again this relies on there being no further southward shift of the high.

In terms of any backedge snow off the occlusion this looks marginal and it would help if the precip was heavier, theres still room for some small changes at this timeframe but it looks once again that the main cold thrust will head into the continent. In such a cold recent winter its surprising that theres not been a single potent easterly of reasonable duation.

I think had the -NAO been more east based then we would have surely seen a good easterly

set up but being to far west it could not keep the troughing out of Scandinavia.

You never know though small upgrades like the 12z today and the UKMO as well over the next

two or three days and some areas might get lucky.

I would imagine there will be some very cold ensemble runs.

[Cheese Rice]

In such a cold recent winter its surprising that theres not been a single potent easterly of reasonable duation.

It's become the norm that the cold 850's flood into Europe and miss the UK, something that has become more common in the last ten years. If we had some of the cold Europe has had in the last decade we would easily see easterlies beating 1991 and comparable to the 80's or 60's. Perhaps something in late march, even -5 850's at the end of march can deliver widely, the only issue is we need a more northerly component, but if we did get a Easter/South Easterly I'm pretty sure it would be cold as Europe is very cold

[Eugene]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=114&mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=3&ech=120&mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=120&mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=120&code=17&mode=0&runpara= :o

　

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=126&mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=132&mode=0&runpara=

　

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-8-1-144.png?12

A definate increase in the amount of cold easterly runs on the GFS 12Z ensembles.

[keithlucky]

http://www.meteociel...mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel...mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel...mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel...mode=0&runpara= :o

　

http://www.meteociel...mode=0&runpara=

　

http://www.meteociel...mode=0&runpara=

　

http://91.121.94.83/...-8-1-144.png?12

A definate increase in the amount of cold easterly runs on the GFS 12Z ensembles.

Met office agrees with gfs a cold easterly run with winds gusty after the front pushes west friday night.with -4 common night time temps.

[Eugene]

Yes it will feel bitter this weekend, i mean if that is a failed easterly please show me a successful one, they are some astonishing cold 850`s this weekend for early March, temps might reach 4C in any sunshine but it will takes ages for temps to recover after bone chilling nights and in the shade it will feel freezing not all of us sit out in the sun all day long :o

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[karyo]

Yes, the 12z gefs ensemles certainly look colder for the weekend and early next week: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

The mean is down to -10 now for the above mentioned period. It still rises after that with no sign of a northerly though!

Karyo

Ps Eugene you are too fast!

Edited March 3, 2010 by karyo

[Thundery wintry showers]

What I find most interesting about the ensembles is that on many of them precipitation is evident for London when the cold air hits- suggesting that the possibility of a few snow showers firing in on the NE'ly is still "on", even though the operational run has the HP too far south to support this.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm say a fleeting easterly the frosty nights sunny days.:o

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecm say a fleeting easterly the frosty nights sunny days.

Id say very mild for Scotland on this ecmwf, hope its a clear frosty high for england and Wales, could end up a dirty high, but at least dry

[phil nw.]

Yes it looks as if the High will be around for a good while and after the little low moves away it should be quite a dry period.

Quite cold air around too,especially to the South East.

We should get some quite sharp frosts with those low dewpoints but some lovely fresh sunshine for many as long as that High doesn`t move to the West which allow damper Atlantic modification eventually.

On the whole not a bad outlook for early March.

[shotski]

Surely not Could this come off

[karyo]

The 12z ECM provides us with a snooze fest in the later timeframe. The bad smell, sorry I meant high pressure, settles on top of us and no hint of a northerly!

In fact, the early timeframe is not promising either, with hardly any precipitation and uppers not as low as in the 0z output. Disappointed really considering what the gfs and its ensembles came upwith!

Karyo

[TEITS]

Yes it will feel bitter this weekend, i mean if that is a failed easterly please show me a successful one, they are some astonishing cold 850`s this weekend for early March, temps might reach 4C in any sunshine but it will takes ages for temps to recover after bone chilling nights and in the shade it will feel freezing not all of us sit out in the sun all day long

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Here is a successful one!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870112.gif

Whilst some of the ensembles are very cold all the models have one thing in common and that is LP to the N of our HP tracking E. So my advice is don't get carried away because this isn't going to be a classic snowy E,ly. I would say the chance of maybe a few snow showers if some of the GEFS members verified but nothing really worth shouting about.

Personally I can't see anything to be excited about. Im afraid dry and cold doesn't interest me and all this will do is increase my fuel bills. There is a world of difference between the E,ly suggested by the models and what I would describe as a classic E,ly. Now im not referring so much to the extent of cold upper temps but the actual positioning and orientation of the HP.

[nick sussex]

The mean height comparisons say it all for the further outlook.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

That pattern has no chance of delivering a northerly with no major troughing in the eastern USA, weak negative anomalies to the south and weak positive anomalies near the UK.

For those liking frosty nights and sunshine you'd need the high to remain centred to the east and not edge west as that will introduce cloud into the flow.

Earlier the GEFS ensembles throw a few teases into the mix at least for the weekend but generally at this range the operationals take precedence in terms of modeling the shortwave and hence the strength of the easterly flow and upper air profiles. Theres a small chance the high could be a touch further north which would increase the chance for a few snow showers in the se however as we've seen from the recent winter once the models start taking the high further south they don't usually backtrack.

Overall then a wintry mix into the weekend as the occlusion clears sw'wards, chance for a few snow showers into the far se then a quiet, settled spell.

I think many of us are suffering from model fatigue at the end of the winter, i sense some people are still a little frustrated at how things eventually turned out for their particular locations and i'd tend to agree, a very good winter but with several near misses for the UK which could have made it even better, the biggest disappointment I think is the failure of any easterlies of decent duration, which is once again evident with the last week in the models.

Edited March 3, 2010 by nick sussex

[January Snowstorm]

I think many of us are suffering from model fatigue at the end of the winter, i sense some people are still a little frustrated at how things eventually turned out for their particular locations and i'd tend to agree, a very good winter but with several near misses for the UK which could have made it even better, the biggest disappointment I think is the failure of any easterlies of decent duration, which is once again evident with the last week in the models.

Yes indeed Nick it has been an exceptional Winter re cold yet most, me included, are disapointed!

The number of frosts over here was unreal, yet falling snow on maybe 2 occasions which could happen on the mildest of years.

Models continue to look dry and settled which will of course delay any growth and Spring further as I reckon a temp of over 10C is needed to warm up a ground that is several degrees below normal

[nick sussex]

Yes indeed Nick it has been an exceptional Winter re cold yet most, me included, are disapointed!

The number of frosts over here was unreal, yet falling snow on maybe 2 occasions which could happen on the mildest of years.

Models continue to look dry and settled which will of course delay any growth and Spring further as I reckon a temp of over 10C is needed to warm up a ground that is several degrees below normal

From my perspective down here its been a good winter and this far south I have no complaints however looking at my old haunt of West Sussex I think I would have been left a little frustrated with how things panned out regarding so many modelled easterlies which didn't make it.

I think what this does show is how difficult it is to get the right synoptics that deliver more nationwide in terms of snow. Looking at the current set up we once again find the dreaded shortwave causing all the problems. Looking further ahead it does look settled but for lovers of some more interesting weather in terms of convective spring wintry showers and those sudden big drops in temperature it could be a while yet, we really need to see the upstream pattern amplify more with eastern USA troughing aligned favourably for that to happen.

[Secret Society]

oh dear, GFS and its ensembles, hmm chocolate teapot.

nothing changes

[cooling climate]

Two good cold spells one in December the other in January the rest of the winter

you could sum up by saying close but no cigar. A cold winter yes but thats it although

looking back at the mild muck we have had to endure its great to see three below

average CET winter months.

The weather for the weekend looks now to be mainly dry and sunny which should be

enjoyed after all the rain and murk but synoptic and model watching wise it does

not come much more boring than this.

[Backtrack]

oh dear, GFS and its ensembles, hmm chocolate teapot.

nothing changes

I don't know, I think I like the GFS atm, it's been really accurate (For once) and it's giving us a nice dry, cool-ish spell, with mild-ish days and sub-zero at night.

We've had our winter now. Here's hoping next year is just as good!