Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

Some tentative signs from the 06z GFS run that we may not see as much troughing to

the northwest of the UK, if this is perhaps a new trend then there is a real chance that

the high will lift northwards which could very well introduce colder continental air.

There could also be more chance of undercutting from the low out west or at least

shortwaves running underneath the block helping to shift it further north.

Another consequence of less troughing to our northwest would be more chance of

ridging being thrown north and a greater threat of a decent northerly down the line.

[Milhouse]

All the longer range models are now showing the milder Atlantic air breaking through around next weekend. At the moment there looks to be no real change to unsettled conditions either so for many areas the dry spell looks like continuing for some time yet. Becoming quite warm too.....eventually.

[SteveB]

I see nothing mild or warm on the 06z. What I do see is high pressure in charge with cold air mixed in, then an attempt at a northerly then an attempt at an easterly, then some sort of break down to near average temps deep deep in FI.

Below average for the foreseeable

[cooling climate]

All the longer range models are now showing the milder Atlantic air breaking through around next weekend. At the moment there looks to be no real change to unsettled conditions either so for many areas the dry spell looks like continuing for some time yet. Becoming quite warm too.....eventually.

There is nothing that I can see from any data to support this unless by referring to becoming

quite warm eventually you mean in April or May then you may well be right.

Prognostic discussions from NOAA support northern blocking.

THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY

PREDICTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MODELS AGREE ON ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM

CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER GREENLAND AND THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.

BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FROM A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO BE

OVER WESTERN ALASKA, WITH A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET TO ITS SOUTH. THE JET

WEAKENS AND SPLITS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH ONE

STREAM TRAVELING NORTHWARD TO THE ALASKAN

Here is the 6-10 day 500 anomaly map from NOAA.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Thundery wintry showers]

All the longer range models are now showing the milder Atlantic air breaking through around next weekend. At the moment there looks to be no real change to unsettled conditions either so for many areas the dry spell looks like continuing for some time yet. Becoming quite warm too.....eventually.

Looks like a hopecast to me- I see nothing obvious to suggest that on the charts? Looks like staying dry and sunny for nearly all (except for the possibility of some cloud towards the SE, depending on how far north the high ends up) for another week, and then possibly an attempt at a breakdown from the NW but it's probably as likely to result in a northerly outbreak as it is to give mild westerlies, dull damp weather for the NW and sunshine for the SE (or for that matter an unsettled spell of weather). Alternatively the HP could just keep hanging around.

[Duane S.]

Looks like a hopecast to me- I see nothing obvious to suggest that on the charts? Looks like staying dry and sunny for nearly all (except for the possibility of some cloud towards the SE, depending on how far north the high ends up) for another week, and then possibly an attempt at a breakdown from the NW but it's probably as likely to result in a northerly outbreak as it is to give mild westerlies, dull damp weather for the NW and sunshine for the SE (or for that matter an unsettled spell of weather). Alternatively the HP could just keep hanging around.

I agree. It would take a brave man to confidently predict what sort of weather we will be in once the high pressure cell does leave us. I can see the argument for 1. a proper Atlantic return, 2. a Northly and 3. retrogression of the high.

[snowmadchrisuk]

All the longer range models are now showing the milder Atlantic air breaking through around next weekend. At the moment there looks to be no real change to unsettled conditions either so for many areas the dry spell looks like continuing for some time yet. Becoming quite warm too.....eventually.

Mild Weather next weekend ?

[Wilks]

Mild Weather next weekend ?

I'd go with mild weather next weekend as well - no way that chart is going to happen. If it's sowing a northerly now then by the time that happens we#ll be in southerlies - for the past month I've looked at charts a week away that never happen so now I look and work out the oppositte and that's about what we get!

[karyo]

There is some indication for a northerly attempt according to the models, for a week from now. The Met Office update just mentiones the return to the unsettled weather with average temperatures so they are not thinking the chance for the northerly is high at the moment.

I hope the support for the northerly will increase in the following runs but I'll be happy with some cool unsettled weather too!

Karyo

[SteveB]

I'd go with mild weather next weekend as well - no way that chart is going to happen. If it's sowing a northerly now then by the time that happens we#ll be in southerlies - for the past month I've looked at charts a week away that never happen so now I look and work out the opposite and that's about what we get!

I don't think southerlies will be the out come next week, nor do I think the northerly will be the out come.

Most likely outcome is the high influencing our weather & a dry settled cool/cold theme continuing with a gradual mixing out of the cold & return to near average Temps.

Edited March 5, 2010 by SteveB

[Eugene]

There is some indication for a northerly attempt according to the models, for a week from now. The Met Office update just mentiones the return to the unsettled weather with average temperatures so they are not thinking the chance for the northerly is high at the moment.

I hope the support for the northerly will increase in the following runs but I'll be happy with some cool unsettled weather too!

Karyo

lol so cool settled weather doesnt suit you then, a shame because plenty of that on offer, well actually cold as 5C on sunday is not a springlike day no matter what anybody tells you with really cold dewpoints,i see GFS sticking to some incredible dewpoints for midday monday but moved them to the southwest now.

No sign of spring on the ensembles, staying below average for weeks, at least a below average CET is possible again so will please some.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[karyo]

lol so cool settled weather doesnt suit you then,

No! Not for as long as there is a good chance for proper wintry weather (say till mid April).

I find settled weather in spring and summer boring! I'd rather have low pressure.

Anyway, as I said before, I hope that the support for a northerly increases in the following outputs.

Karyo

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Been lovely out and about today and the day started off with a nice sharp frost too - the last thing I want from the weather is more unsettled low pressure.

Fortunately the models show plenty of much overdue high pressure to come for a while at least, so no need to worry about ran and/or wind just yet, thank goodness.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not much change from this morning's GFS run- except that the rain/sleet hangs around a bit over north-east England tomorrow, probably cold and overcast and damp for much of that area of the country, sunny and dry elsewhere. The outlook remains the same into next week but watch the positioning of the HP- with a modification of the cold air over the continent any easterly flow would most likely bring large amounts of stratiform cloud to the southeast of the country.

Nothing wrong with the differing views on high and low pressure- I know I can end up on either side of the fence, depending on the amount of cloud cover and type of precipitation (if any) involved. But for better or worse, the high doesn't look like moving anywhere fast over the coming week, and beyond that we get into the realms of FI where pretty much anything could happen. I still don't see a straightforward sinking of the HP and a mild moist SW flow being one of the more likely outcomes though.

[glosteroldboy]

I would take a month of this weather in all honesty all though the mornings are a little chilly but it's a good if the pay off if it means clear sunny days. Doesn't look like much wet stuff about for the at least the next 7+ days.

[cooling climate]

The UKMO run at t144 looks interesting. Nothing of note other than that although

as others have said it is nice to see things starting to dry out and the spring sunshine

is very pleasent.

[MR EXTREMES]

The UKMO run at t144 looks interesting. Nothing of note other than that although

as others have said it is nice to see things starting to dry out and the spring sunshine

is very pleasent.

been through most of the models absolutely nothing mild settled and cold as each day passes i expect it will get a little warmer but id reckon not getting above average right through into fi.

gonna be frosty aswell for sometime.

but i admit im rather looking forward to the warm up lol.

also looking forward to next winter lmao.

[D KARLSON]

there is literally no weather to speak of at present, and synoptics wise there are no deep low pressure systems or intense highs its almost as though our the whole circulation has shut down ,these are very unusual synoptics to my eyes especially when you consider this is spring.

At the moment its hard to envisage where any rain will come from, never mind low pressure systems delivering rain and strong souwesterlies and by the same token without active lows its difficult to imagine a northerly occuring.

Perhaps the adage out like a lion could apply to this March as i would expect at some point the Atlantic to power up but where from, it would not surprise me if any energy from the jet asnd lows if they do occur come from a northwesterly or westerl;y quadrant thus delivering near average temps for most but once again scotlands high ground could well see more snow with temps on the cool side of average and perhaps mid march before any of these changes occur

[J10]

Been lovely out and about today and the day started off with a nice sharp frost too - the last thing I want from the weather is more unsettled low pressure.

Fortunately the models show plenty of much overdue high pressure to come for a while at least, so no need to worry about ran and/or wind just yet, thank goodness.

Totally agree, hardly a cloud in the sky today, and after an early frost, very pleasant weather indeed.

Looking at the models, more of the same to come.

[cooling climate]

The t168 chart on the ECM 12z run is just insane with the amount of lows, shortwaves to the

north and northwest. The output from the Euro models tonight give me more confidence of a

northerly outbreak in severn to ten days time.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though we are now in a "welcome" run of settled albeit chilly ,very cold at night but some warmish days in any sunshine, so perhaps some interesting Diurnal temps in the forseeable future. Cloud will be a problem at times so if its cloudy during the day ,it will be cold and a nagging East wind in the far south of the Uk in the next few days, but overall some damn nice weather to enjoy!!

[John London]

At the moment its hard to envisage where any rain will come from, never mind low pressure systems delivering rain and strong souwesterlies and by the same token without active lows its difficult to imagine a northerly occuring.

I know this isn't strictly to do with model watching but I thought I should mention in reply to this post that it has been raining for most of the day here, and it is still raining right now.

[TonyH]

Lovely weather, dry and quite sunny for a change, with reasonable temperatures by day, and the added interest of low temperatures overnight, -7c here last night.

Also nice to see fog for a change- very little of that through the winter, had it 3 mornings this week.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Totally agree, hardly a cloud in the sky today, and after an early frost, very pleasant weather indeed.

Looking at the models, more of the same to come.

The Metoffice got it totally wrong for my area today , blue sky's and sunshine until it got dark. That is what I suspected what would happen by the Satellite picture this morning and GFS predicted it all along . They won't admit it though

The 12z Paints a bit of a messy picture and looks really like they don't know what to do with the high .. The weekend coming up and if it is anything like the last few weeks the GFS won't give us a clear indication of an outcome until Monday.

[Cheese Rice]

GFS is a really tedious run, we are so close to getting the cold air to our east but it never gets near enough. At least there will be some dry and hopefully sunny weather, I suspect there will be cloud feeding in of the north sea at some point which will suppress temps.