Model Output Discussion

[Wilks]

For instance the last few days of February were much warmer than the past week over much of southern England, and at times featured temperatures of around 10C and south-westerly winds, but few were commenting on how much warmer it felt after the persistently cold weather up until that point.

I have to disagree with that! - It certainly felt much warmer and in fact I remember posting to comment I was out in the garden doing jobs in a t shirt - something I wouldn't normally do that time of the year in 10c but with the weather that preluded it it certainly felt miles warmer in comparison. In fact I even sat in the pub garden one day for lunch in just a jumper and it was lovely in the sun. Kind of goes without saying that it would be different with cloud/wind of course but that's not the point.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I certainly won't be joining most others wishing for south westerlies - one thing that for sure will never happen with me, whatever the time of year!!

Disappointing and rather poor model output at face value, but hopefully the models are being too progressive and high pressure will stay closer by, although admittedly it is looking less promising in that regard.

Could be a case of be careful what you wish for - the atlantic weather doesn't tend to be very obliging in half measures, and that is putting aside my very large anathema to it, in whatever guise it arrives!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have to disagree with that! - It certainly felt much warmer and in fact I remember posting to comment I was out in the garden doing jobs in a t shirt - something I wouldn't normally do that time of the year in 10c but with the weather that preluded it it certainly felt miles warmer in comparison. In fact I even sat in the pub garden one day for lunch in just a jumper and it was lovely in the sun. Kind of goes without saying that it would be different with cloud/wind of course but that's not the point.

I did choose my words carefully- I meant "few" in the literal sense, I certainly recall the odd post here and there in areas that saw some sun noting how much warmer it felt- indeed there was a one-off day in Norwich (a Saturday if I remember rightly) when I was one of them, as we had sunshine and showers and 9C and it felt genuinely springlike.

Apologies if it came across the wrong way- though I'm pretty sure that during the spell as a whole, the posts noting how much warmer it felt were heavily outnumbered by the ones lamenting about cold cloudy wet weather- it was meant as a generalisation rather than an absolute statement.

I think the upcoming outlook could still go the way of the high pressure- the models are fully capable of overdoing the Atlantic at this range but I agree it must be admitted they are trending away from that at the moment.

[TEITS]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

You are joking Eugene aren't you.

A realistic look at the model output does suggest becoming less cold with max temps probably reaching around 10C by the start of next week. Certainly no heatwave but far from cold.

Just looked at the GEFS mean and its clear from this the general trend thats going to occur. The HP bringing cold NW,lys will slow drift SE and be replaced by less cold W/SW,lys.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if at some stage warm S,lys will bring temps in excess of 15C from around 19th March onwards.

[Frosty.]

A very impressive Northerly on the GFS 00z @ T+384 hours but the N'ly later this week looks like a 24 hour toppler at best. High Pressure features strongly in FI so lot's of settled weather is possible with just brief changeable phases and the occasional Pm incursion bringing some wintry showers to northern & eastern coastal areas and homegrown shower potential as convection increases rapidly during the second half of march, it's fair to say the weather pattern is much more springlike with no sign of potent cold spells during the next few weeks apart from the T+384 chart which would still pack a punch, even in late march.

[La Bise]

I certainly won't be joining most others wishing for south westerlies - one thing that for sure will never happen with me, whatever the time of year!!

Disappointing and rather poor model output at face value, but hopefully the models are being too progressive and high pressure will stay closer by, although admittedly it is looking less promising in that regard.

Could be a case of be careful what you wish for - the atlantic weather doesn't tend to be very obliging in half measures, and that is putting aside my very large anathema to it, in whatever guise it arrives!

Hear, hear, swlies come from Satan's very own bottom I think...Once Atlantic weather is back in place, it's not going to shift and bring us nothing but rain, wind and misery. Just peaked out of my window and said "boring weather" is nothing short of lovely, unless you got an aversion for the sun...

[snowfish]

Hear, hear, swlies come from Satan's very own bottom I think...Once Atlantic weather is back in place, it's not going to shift and bring us nothing but rain, wind and misery. Just peaked out of my window and said "boring weather" is nothing short of lovely, unless you got an aversion for the sun...

Absolutely classic! (laughs) totally agree - I detest south westerlies and this is what in recent winters brought that horrific mild wet and windy winters (and equally so) summers. Fortunately, this trend now seems to be at an end with the start (last year) of a much colder winter. I don't think we are 'out of the woods yet' and winter hasn't had it's last 'sting' yet either. Eugene's chart although FI is interesting and possible. I love spring and like TEITS will welcome warmer temps but please not from south westerlies - a southerly would be much nicer lol!

One final thing, what I would say is that if we are going to have a northerly (see Eugene's chart) - let's have a mega one like that! - not a weak 'puff and it's gone' number lol!

Edited March 9, 2010 by snowfish

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hear, hear, swlies come from Satan's very own bottom I think...Once Atlantic weather is back in place, it's not going to shift and bring us nothing but rain, wind and misery. Just peaked out of my window and said "boring weather" is nothing short of lovely, unless you got an aversion for the sun...

Well, as I mentioned yesterday, there is every chance that the jet stream will stay amplified enough to prevent south westerlies setting in for any period of time and also with high pressure close enough by whilst low pressure sticks over Scandinavia then all this should be sufficient to allow some north westerly or even northerly incursions to occur in the second half of March. Although some rather more unsettled weather looks increasingly likely, especially further north - further dry and cool conditions with sunshine and night time frost would continue to be very welcome imo in the absence of any further wintry potential

[cuckoo]

Some reasonably cold uppers accompanying this Northerly flow later in the week. The -10°C line just failing to make it to our shores once again though.

[Frosty.]

Some reasonably cold uppers accompanying this Northerly flow later in the week. The -10°C line just failing to make it to our shores once again though.

Yes it's a blink or you miss it Northerly with absolutely nothing to sustain it beyond 24 hours, hardly worth a mention really unless you live on cairngorm. The cold pattern of winter is well and truly broken now with much more typically spring type weather ahead.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re. south-westerlies and southerlies, a southerly is usually much more conducive to sunny dry weather taking the country as a whole because it picks up less Atlantic moisture. South-westerlies can bring warm sunshine to the SE if high pressure is close by but it is usually cloudy and damp in northern and western regions. Of course a cyclonic south-westerly is a different matter, and can give rise to sunshine and showers, but the near term has HP close by which would promote tropical maritime airmasses if we get a SW'ly.

The current trend towards T+168 suggests a high building from the south which might bring some warm sunshine to many parts, though it is still subject to change particularly as the Atlantic was shown as coming into force in many of yesterday's runs.

[Paul]

Hi all, Nick Finnis (senior forecast for netweather) has put together what he hopes will be the first of a regular video with an in depth look at the upcoming week and beyond over on the community channel:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=community-video;sess=

[weatherobsuk]

FI obviously, but +153 - +177h the models are having temps here of +12'c, with +15'c in France all the way up to the end of the month. Obviously Spring has to arrive sometime.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well I think it seems likely that it will turn milder in a weeks time or so, the latest model output suggests 10-13C widely by next weekend, which will be welcomed by most including me. The NAO looks to be staying slightly negative for some while yet, so the Southern arm of the Jetstream looks likely to stay where it is for some while yet

[stewfox]

A very impressive Northerly on the GFS 00z @ T+384 hours

Its almost like a dinner lady has called a whistle on all the kids have gone back in with just a few left outside not realising lunchtime is over.

T384 is getting a little bit FI, winters over

For now

[Avain]

Hi all, Nick Finnis (senior forecast for netweather) has put together what he hopes will be the first of a regular video with an in depth look at the upcoming week and beyond over on the community channel:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=community-video;sess=

Nice forecast Nick, good to see the various charts used and explained, much better than the dumbed down weather on the TV. I look forward to the next one!

[snowingtequila]

Well I think it seems likely that it will turn milder in a weeks time or so, the latest model output suggests 10-13C widely by next weekend, which will be welcomed by most including me. The NAO looks to be staying slightly negative for some while yet, so the Southern arm of the Jetstream looks likely to stay where it is for some while yet

it is no looking like remperstures may rise slightly as we go through march which is not such a surprise I guess although I still think e could get a few surprises until the end of April as temperatures are not set to rise that high yet. I am not convinced a temperature rise will be so welcomed by most. I love the weather at the moment, cold and frosty at night and sunny by day and everywhere slowly drying out. Great out in the garden at the moment.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Its almost like a dinner lady has called a whistle on all the kids have gone back in with just a few left outside not realising lunchtime is over.

T384 is getting a little bit FI, winters over

For now

It's a bit too simplistic writing off the possibility of snow events later in the season just because there aren't any to come for the foreseeable future.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990309.gif

Lots of northern blocking (though it did not bring any notable low temperatures to Britain)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990313.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990317.gif

Northern blocking ceases... winter's over!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990413.gif

ah.

No sign of anything wintry coming up for the foreseeable- still looks like a near certainty to turn pretty warm, the main question marks lying over sunshine and rainfall amounts.

[damianslaw]

Well, as I mentioned yesterday, there is every chance that the jet stream will stay amplified enough to prevent south westerlies setting in for any period of time and also with high pressure close enough by whilst low pressure sticks over Scandinavia then all this should be sufficient to allow some north westerly or even northerly incursions to occur in the second half of March. Although some rather more unsettled weather looks increasingly likely, especially further north - further dry and cool conditions with sunshine and night time frost would continue to be very welcome imo in the absence of any further wintry potential

Yes I'm echoing your thoughts, can't see any westerly/south westerly regime taking over, heights look like staying too high close to our south western shores, I can north westerly incursions during the second half of the month ad very potential for a potent northerly before the month is out.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Still Bitter cold in Scotland with -9 being recorded currently at some places in the Highlands. Cloudiest day of the week here in the Midlands which is making it feel Cool. On the bright side the charts are suggesting some clear and sunny days as we head towards the weekend with the exception of Friday.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes I'm echoing your thoughts, can't see any westerly/south westerly regime taking over, heights look like staying too high close to our south western shores, I can north westerly incursions during the second half of the month ad very potential for a potent northerly before the month is out.

Indeed, and both ECM and GEM echo exactly that this morning with a brief westerly following the high pressure area early next week, and then in turn there is good agreement of suggestions for a northerly/north westerly to follow on both models. No sign of any sustained milder unsettled weather.

Edited March 10, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[TEITS]

Yes I'm echoing your thoughts, can't see any westerly/south westerly regime taking over, heights look like staying too high close to our south western shores, I can north westerly incursions during the second half of the month ad very potential for a potent northerly before the month is out.

Worth pointing out though that at +144 we have good agreement for a milder spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Still despite the ECM OP being colder than the mean the control also follows the Op. So the chance of a N,ly i.e GEM remains possible around the 19/20th. Having said this it oculd equally turn very mild with S,lys!

[Snowangel-MK]

Hi all, Nick Finnis (senior forecast for netweather) has put together what he hopes will be the first of a regular video with an in depth look at the upcoming week and beyond over on the community channel:

http://www.netweathe...ity-video;sess=

Fantastic, well done Nick !

Someone give this man a job on the BBC

[weatherevents]

Hi all, Nick Finnis (senior forecast for netweather) has put together what he hopes will be the first of a regular video with an in depth look at the upcoming week and beyond over on the community channel:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=community-video;sess=

I really enjoyed Nick's presentation and in particular, his reference to the charts.. this is definitely a great way to learn by seeing and experiencing the unfolding weather with reference to the model output. Finally a weather forecast for those that want to understand, rather than be spoon fed! :lol: Really looking forward to the next instalment!

[mushymanrob]

.... hello guys

now that the horrid cold appears to be going, ill wake up!

im liking the current model outputs, especially the gfs which suggests milder or much milder conditons into fi.. pretty dry too.