Model Output Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

The suggested northerly in the models would probably be less cold if it happens than the current gloriously cold and sunny easterly!

I think it would be warmer for the south and colder for the north overall, I think especially for southern areas a northerly would be welcome as there may be alot of cloud cover especially so in the south east in the coming week. The feed we are in now isn't particularly cold either, even though we are all seeing low min temps afternoon temps are rising pretty quickly (currently 5.1c and rising after a low of -5.7c) so maybe the northerly could overall be colder.

[Eugene]

Wow some amazing dewpoints forecasted for midday tomorrow especially in wales

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2410.png

Todays dewpoints are also incredibly cold for March

[Paul]

The dewpoints are very low because the air is so dry - looking at the example of tomorrow, the humidity is very low:

Temperatures aren't out of the ordinary:

But dewpoints are well down, with a -12c in there in north wales:

[in the vale]

Yes - the models have got the humidity (or rather lack of it) about right today - 34% humidity at the mo, and -0.5 dp, in sun temp of 15.4, air temp 7.5.

[Cheese Rice]

NAE is going for some exceptionally cold dew points for tomorrow morning, dew points as low as -18.c across West Midlands/Norther Ireland. The temps are predicted to be -4.c but surely with dew points that low -10.c or below could easily be achieved?

[frostyjoe]

NAE is going for some exceptionally cold dew points for tomorrow morning, dew points as low as -18.c across West Midlands/Norther Ireland. The temps are predicted to be -4.c but surely with dew points that low -10.c or below could easily be achieved?

yes i agree i think i might get -10c or -11c tonight as it is real clear and dry here the dew points are even low around -6c here at 6c which is quite cold.... last week i recorded -7c.. its bound to be far colder than -4c.. well i hope it is! probably this auld wind that has been blowin all day

Edited March 7, 2010 by frostyjoe

[guitarnutter]

If there was any precip around in Wales, Dew points certainly wouldnt be marginal!

Edited March 7, 2010 by guitarnutter

[Cheese Rice]

Yeah too bad there isn't any precipitation around, this chart shows it better with -18.c dew points over parts of the UK.

Edited March 7, 2010 by 10123

[Nights King]

yes i agree i think i might get -10c or -11c tonight as it is real clear and dry here the dew points are even low around -6c here at 6c which is quite cold.... last week i recorded -7c.. its bound to be far colder than -4c.. well i hope it is! probably this auld wind that has been blowin all day

Very cold here already so I think we could be in for lowest night time minima for a while! -0.5c

[Paul]

Yeah too bad there isn't any precipitation around, this chart shows it better with -18.c dew points over parts of the UK.

You need moisture for precipitation though, and the lack of moisture is the reason for the low dewpoints.

[The PIT]

Well the gfs has wiped out the idea of the northerly altogether which surprises me a little. Overall the "warmest" run from the GFS for a while. It'll be interesting what the ECM comes up with.

[frostyjoe]

Very cold here already so I think we could be in for lowest night time minima for a while! -0.5c

yea what would you expect??? i think -10c the way its dropping i mean its dropped 3c in 1hr.

[Nights King]

yea what would you expect??? i think -10c the way its dropping i mean its dropped 3c in 1hr.

I am not sure about -10 but -8/9 maybe?

current temp is now -1.5c

I love exceptional cold nights, has anyone else noticed that if you drive around everything is browny and dead in fields which is not common even for january in most average winters.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the gfs has wiped out the idea of the northerly altogether which surprises me a little. Overall the "warmest" run from the GFS for a while. It'll be interesting what the ECM comes up with.

On the ensembles for Aberdeen (being a Northerly the best place to check ) Gfs 12z is about the coldest run , But there has been no trend to anything over the weekend really so we will see what happens next week. A much more Cloudy week looks in store thats for sure which is a shame.

[Steve Edgefield]

I assume its my post your referring to.

Im not saying the SSTS will prevent any hot weather and if you read my post correctly you will see that. What im saying is any warm spells during April, May, June may see coastal regions much colder than inland locations. Now I here you saying "this is always the case with sea breezes" which is true. However what im saying is the difference between inland and coastal locations could be even more noticeable than previous years due to the below average SSTs. This could especially be the case along the Norfolk coast.

Have been thinking the same as you TEITS. Living just 4 miles from the N Norfolk coast, I cannot agree more that with a sea breeze, temps in May & June can be no more than 10C. With SST's lower this year and taking longer to warm, I think that coastal regions could well experience some notably cool days during late spring and early summer in particular.

[nick sussex]

The possible northerly really doesn't look like being much to write home about. Perhaps a glancing blow for ne Scotland and especially the Shetland Isles. The main cold thrust looks like going into central Europe where the winter just keeps going, really the whole of Europe looks below average with no sign of a warm up.

I think theres more chance of a colder more wintry spell later into the second half of the month,the Scandi trough seems reluctant to go anywhere so a northerly or ne flow can't be ruled out later on. Its at that time of year now where its always marginal so whether the UK can tap into the coldest source of air is still uncertain. Regarding the UKMO 6-15 day further outlook, i'm surprised they keep going with a milder theme, really can't see that happening.

Edited March 7, 2010 by nick sussex

[TEITS]

Have been thinking the same as you TEITS. Living just 4 miles from the N Norfolk coast, I cannot agree more that with a sea breeze, temps in May & June can be no more than 10C. With SST's lower this year and taking longer to warm, I think that coastal regions could well experience some notably cool days during late spring and early summer in particular.

Yes I think TWS is failing to understand what im saying.

Our SSTS will recover to normal values if we experience spells of warm weather. What im suggesting is if March does turn out to be below average then the coastal regions during early spring/summer will experience much colder sea breezes than normal. I wouldn't expect our SSTS to recover as quickly as TWS suggests because its well known the sea takes longer to warm/cool than land does. Furthermore because a sea breeze develops due to the differences between the Sea/Land temps then I would expect an even stronger breeze to develop.

Also worth mentioning that the state of the sea will have an impact on warming/cooling our SSTS. A strong N,ly would make the N Sea rather rough thus causing a quicker cooling effect. However in the spring/summer a warm spell will coincide with a spell of HP this meaning rather calm seas. So saying "We have already seen our SSTS cool quickly in Dec" doesn't tell the whole story. Don't forget im referring to sea surface temp because obviously below this is much colder.

Back to the models and what I find remarkable is just how often this winter my location on the ensembles has been around -5C.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100307/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

I really can't see anything mild in the model output at the moment which I find actually disappointing!

[keithlucky]

Yes I think TWS is failing to understand what im saying.

Our SSTS will recover to normal values if we experience spells of warm weather. What im suggesting is if March does turn out to be below average then the coastal regions during early spring/summer will experience much colder sea breezes than normal. I wouldn't expect our SSTS to recover as quickly as TWS suggests because its well known the sea takes longer to warm/cool than land does. Furthermore because a sea breeze develops due to the differences between the Sea/Land temps then I would expect an even stronger breeze to develop.

Also worth mentioning that the state of the sea will have an impact on warming/cooling our SSTS. A strong N,ly would make the N Sea rather rough thus causing a quicker cooling effect. However in the spring/summer a warm spell will coincide with a spell of HP this meaning rather calm seas. So saying "We have already seen our SSTS cool quickly in Dec" doesn't tell the whole story. Don't forget im referring to sea surface temp because obviously below this is much colder.

Back to the models and what I find remarkable is just how often this winter my location on the ensembles has been around -5C.

http://charts.netwea...bridgeshire.png

t

I really can't see anything mild in the model output at the moment which I find actually disappointing!

So do the daffodils they shivering eye a good two weeks behind cant see any flowering for another week shows how cold the ground tempretures are .Normally out by march the 1st

[damianslaw]

Models in the short-medium term i.e. out to next weekend all in general agreement of the current high slowly backing north westwards to allow a chilly north westerly flow by Friday with chance of wintry showers in the NE and perhaps a longer spell of rain/sleet/hill snow for the north and east.

Thereafter I think ECM is onto the right theme, heights look like staying strong to the north west and low over the med with scandi trough in situ, can see a potent northerly setting up during the third week of March, watch the models beging to show this synoptic in the coming days. Can't see the atlantic coming into stir, its very much a case of the status quo with northern blocking in residency alebit in different disguises, with airflow staying predominantly between the NW to East and therfore a fairly dry outlook, now is the time of year when northerlies and easterlies become much more frequent, so these are quite common synoptics for the time of year.

[MP-R]

Well seeing as there doesn't seem to be anything remotely interesting showing on the models at the moment for at least another week, here's something nice and juicy out in FI which would surely be a snowfest in December-January.

This chart has marked similarities with that of the same date in 2001 when it snowed heavily here in the West Country:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

20th March

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010320.gif

20th March 2001

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the GFS 00z shows a blink your eye and you will miss it Northerly on Friday , followed by High pressure bang on top of us before sinking South , Low pressure crosses Northern England and then pressure rises once again . Looking back at history this patten can stick around for quite a while although you are always at risk of brief Northerly's .

We can now confirm that GFS over does due points by the way as I can not find any dew point lower than -8 and yesterdays GFS had due points of -18 over the Midlands.

[frostyjoe]

Well the GFS 00z shows a blink your eye and you will miss it Northerly on Friday , followed by High pressure bang on top of us before sinking South , Low pressure crosses Northern England and then pressure rises once again . Looking back at history this patten can stick around for quite a while although you are always at risk of brief Northerly's .

We can now confirm that GFS over does due points by the way as I can not find any dew point lower than -8 and yesterdays GFS had due points of -18 over the Midlands.

well they must be low here as there is no frost and its -8c..

[weather_it_will]

I really can't see anything mild in the model output at the moment which I find actually disappointing!

Same here...

Just the odd day where temp scrapes 10°C, but the overall pattern remains on the cold side, and perhaps very cold again in last week of March.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

I notice that in FI there is an appearance of the fabled 'Iberian Thruster' high

[snowfish]

I notice that in FI there is an appearance of the fabled 'Iberian Thruster' high

Congratulations to you all - something of interest in each of your posts! lol! Where DID that northerly go? The same way all the easterlies have! Still, will check models later to see if it has 'come back' as sometimes happens!