Model Output Discussion

[TEITS]

Not sure I agree (although it may be a matter of taste here), I see a lot of cloudy weather and the odd bit of drizzle from the current outputs, thanks to weak fronts moving across from time to time, and the temperatures of 12-13C are out in FI and subject to considerable change. The mild weather and more especially the sunshine have downgraded considerably on this morning's runs.

The coming week will be warmer than the last one, but except if you live in south-east England or East Anglia (where, in contrast to the rest of the UK, the last few days have been dull) it probably won't actually feel any warmer because of more cloud cover.

However the models are only just picking up new signals so maybe something with more interest will show up on future runs.

To be fair I did say in my post "could feel pleasant in any spells of sunshine. This doesn't mean im suggesting wall to wall sunshine!

I feel my summary was a fair one. Very little sign of anything particularly cold and with HP being close by then temps around 12-13C are perfectly plausible in this situation. Furthermore I continue to suggest that from the 19th onwards temps might reach the dizzy heights of 15C+. This is what the models are suggesting which of course is what this thread is all about!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Part of the disagreement was on the personal POV bit (hence the "matter of taste" reference) as I don't find the current outlook particularly inspiring especially after how it looked yesterday (yes, there is a fair amount of warm sunshine promised for the 19th March, but we all know how these things can downgrade from 8 days out, just like the possible warm sunshine for 15-18 March has largely gone- it's like cold/snow lovers spotting northerlies at T+180).

The original post referred to maxima of 12-13C by the 19th March which certainly sounds reasonable (indeed as the above post indicates it could be a big understatement!) but is subject of course to downgrades- but I don't see 12-13C being widely reached this coming week except in localised spots- too much cloud on the whole. The increased warmth will be felt mainly by night over the coming week rather than by day and it is likely only to feel appreciably warmer by day than last week in the south-eastern third of the country, unless the models reverse their trend of placing the HP a bit further south/west.

[cooling climate]

The ECM t240 chart will have the cold and snow weenies amongst us (including myself) showing

a cautious interest in the chart. I would like to see one more good cold snap before we say

goodbye to winter weather.

Plenty of time for warm weather in the months ahead.

[phil nw.]

The next 3 or 4 days see the flow turning to the North or North West.

The main thrust of the Colder air just glancing Northern and Eastern regions as it goes down the North Sea into Europe so temps just below average by day but less Night frosts with more cloud about.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn962.png

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

A little rain and then some showers tomorrow and then predominately dry and settled into next week.

Looking further into midweek , all the models showing warmer air coming in as the flow turns into the South or South West.

The change starting as early as Tuesday,

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

Pressure rising over France and bringing Warmer air into Southern districts.

Depending on how dry the air is, there could be quite pleasant sunny spells, especially in sheltered Southern and Eastern districts.

However there`s always the risk of cloud with this pattern,especially as ever, in the West and North.

Edited March 11, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Fozfoster]

The ECM t240 chart will have the cold and snow weenies amongst us (including myself) showing

a cautious interest in the chart. I would like to see one more good cold snap before we say

goodbye to winter weather.

Plenty of time for warm weather in the months ahead.

Here here, But things will change, in this up and down month, enjoyed reading your posts on this thread CC cheers.

[January Snowstorm]

The increased warmth will be felt mainly by night over the coming week rather than by day and it is likely only to feel appreciably warmer by day than last week in the south-eastern third of the country, unless the models reverse their trend of placing the HP a bit further south/west.

I would have to disagree totally.

We haven't had a mild Southerly for practically 3 months.

It will feel positvely balmy for most compared to of late. Even here in Ireland double figures haven't been seen for 3 months!!

Yes it's not showing warm Spring weather but it will be quite mild, mild enough for growth to finally begin, so a notable change imo

[Thundery wintry showers]

But unless I'm missing something, there are no mild southerlies showing on the GFS or UKMO until around 5-6 days out, and none at all showing on the ECM? Except for East Anglia and the southeast (where daytime temperatures have been low recently under thick cloud cover) the outlook for the next 5-6 days is for similar daytime temperatures to what we've been used to, and significantly warmer nights, and in my experience 9C and cloudy often feels no warmer than 7-8C and sunny. Of course regarding East Anglia and the SE (where it will warm up by day by a good 3-5C) and plant growth (owing to the warmer nights) there is more of a case for the next 5-6 days feeling warmer.

Certainly if we get to the GFS/UKMO solution for around T+144 it will feel a lot warmer everywhere, with temperatures finally getting into the low teens in many places, and a good chance of the sun getting out in many areas particularly on the UKMO. But with the ECM having the high much further south and promoting nearer-average daytime temperatures, even that isn't set in stone yet.

[damianslaw]

Becoming appreciably milder for the south east by Sunday as we loose the cool north easterly/northerly flow and also becoming much sunnier, conversely the north looks increasingly like getting a cloudy dull spell of weather with the present high anchored to the south west allowing weak weather fronts and associated cloud to rotate around it.

Longer term outlook, can't see the atlantic steamrolling in.. expecting heights to be in close situ to our south west and a bit of a status quo, it may ridge slightly north at time giving southern parts the chance for mid teen maxes later next week. With a weak atlantic and heights staying strong to the south and west every chance before the month is out for a cold northerly plunge with the scandi trough very much remaining in its current situ. Yes a milder outlook but sustained mild mmm I'm not sure, late March and early Aprilhas a habit of producing cold blasts from the north.

[snowfish]

But unless I'm missing something, there are no mild southerlies showing on the GFS or UKMO until around 5-6 days out, and none at all showing on the ECM? Except for East Anglia and the southeast (where daytime temperatures have been low recently under thick cloud cover) the outlook for the next 5-6 days is for similar daytime temperatures to what we've been used to, and significantly warmer nights, and in my experience 9C and cloudy often feels no warmer than 7-8C and sunny. Of course regarding East Anglia and the SE (where it will warm up by day by a good 3-5C) and plant growth (owing to the warmer nights) there is more of a case for the next 5-6 days feeling warmer.

Certainly if we get to the GFS/UKMO solution for around T+144 it will feel a lot warmer everywhere, with temperatures finally getting into the low teens in many places, and a good chance of the sun getting out in many areas particularly on the UKMO. But with the ECM having the high much further south and promoting nearer-average daytime temperatures, even that isn't set in stone yet.

Agreed and by being milder, that would be minimal.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interestingly the GFS 18Z goes for a slightly different scenario again- a few days of near-average temperatures and predominantly north-westerly winds followed by a resumption of the anticyclonic, dry sunny but not especially mild theme, temperatures a notch higher (10-12C likely by day but still quite frosty at night). That illustrates what happens when the high settles over us rather than to the south or east- we get the sunshine but lose the anomalous warmth.

[johnholmes]

Lots of changes obviously possible but the 00z run gives maxima in double figures for MOST days way out into FI after the first few days. That, I think, is the first time I've seen that this month-I'm talking about my area by the way.

[MR EXTREMES]

Lots of changes obviously possible but the 00z run gives maxima in double figures for MOST days way out into FI after the first few days. That, I think, is the first time I've seen that this month-I'm talking about my area by the way.

in my opion its only a matter of time before double figures do return.

but being outside most of the week here on the southcoast its been freezing cold infact feeling bitter,its incredible ive not seen the cet below like this for this amount of time for many years.

also must be noted the solar cycle is a little more active but still well below and with the jet still on holiday to the south it would seem although milder not nothing like what we have seen in more above years.

it certainly will take awhile of above average cet,s to remove the ground level cold and thats only if they go above and stay above i think this spring and summer are looking pretty much average to below.

as for the models there looking very boring right now nothing really exciting going on.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, looking through the GFS it places the HP further north again than on yesterday's runs (except the 18Z which had it even further north!) so warm sunshine by day from around the 16th March onwards (11-13C) and chilly nights suggests itself, and then a warm unsettled FI. However the ECM makes less of the HP- probably just two warm sunny days from that before the Atlantic comes powering in.

Not sure which to back at this stage.

[Paul]

Michael Fish's latest forecast is now online, with his take on the likely happenings next week:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

[sandstorm2]

Anybody know what has happened to the fax charts?

SS2

[Paul]

They're here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

[DaBrigg]

I would have to disagree totally.

We haven't had a mild Southerly for practically 3 months.

It will feel positvely balmy for most compared to of late. Even here in Ireland double figures haven't been seen for 3 months!!

Yes it's not showing warm Spring weather but it will be quite mild, mild enough for growth to finally begin, so a notable change imo

Bit of a late reply, but be careful what you wish for!

A mild, humid, southerly or southwesterly could be dreadful if you live in Cork City.

You don't want the dew points to get higher than the sea-temps!

There could be lots of sea-fog over the coming months for us coastal dwellers, if there is a sudden rise in temps.

I notice this morning's GFS going for a mild SE'ly later next week. If that were to occur it would likely result in temps of 6-8C, with fog and low cloud, here on the Irish Sea coast.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A mix of spring weather on the GFS 12Z- warm and sunny for a time in the near term with HP heading across southern areas, then a cold northerly in the inner reaches of FI, then another warm spell in its outer reaches. The northerly is something that's cropped up on ECM a few times, so not without its support. In the meantime support continues for that warm sunny weather in about 4-6 days' time but we need ECM on board to be particularly sure about it.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks as though a "benign" period of weather coming up in the following days never to mild never to cold. I expect if the Ecm is correct a lot of cloud associated with this setup but the ecm is still singing the same tune in the later stages of its runs with high pressure situated somewhere north or northeast of the uk....

[karyo]

Chilly extended De Bilt esnembles: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

The control is particularly cold!

It seems that I will miss no interesting weather when I am away next week, but hopefully something chilly/cold for my return!

Karyo

[Ben_Cambs]

Well I think there will be a milder spell, the most likely outcome from this spell are temperatures around average to slightly above in most areas. Temperatures will probably range from up to 13C in the South at times and up to 11C or so in the North. I cannot see any single day getting possibly getting above 15C from these synoptics. IMO it will turn cooler later in the period, as we see more of a north-westerly source of air.

Also note to mention that for a long while yet we are still at risk of a Northerly incursion, due to the track of the Southern arm of the Jet, although in time this may track further north, and also the risk of a Northerly depends on the strength of the Northern arm of the Jet too, which looks likely to strengthen over the next few days, so I think there is a possibility of one towards the end of the month though.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Bit of a late reply, but be careful what you wish for!

A mild, humid, southerly or southwesterly could be dreadful if you live in Cork City.

You don't want the dew points to get higher than the sea-temps!

There could be lots of sea-fog over the coming months for us coastal dwellers, if there is a sudden rise in temps.

I notice this morning's GFS going for a mild SE'ly later next week. If that were to occur it would likely result in temps of 6-8C, with fog and low cloud, here on the Irish Sea coast.

And in Norfolk we have sea temperatures of 4.5 C. But with the mild weather coming over the next week, I think we may see the bottoming out of the sea temps, at least from this point they shouldn't drop any more,

Looks, as someone else has commented, benign, the sun getting higher in teh sky will help soil temperatures, so things may start growing, I estimate winter has lasted at last 3 weeks longer here than last year

Probably the wrong place to ask, but is this the coldest the southern north sea has been for a few years?

[Nick F]

Tumbleweed rolls across page!

Trend from the models this morning is for the extension of the azores high ridging NE towards Ireland currently, to move east across southern UK over the next few days, while a long-wave trough upstream extending south across Davis Strait/New Foundland moves east and amplifies into the mid-N Atlantic, which will be the impetus for the high to shift E and SE into the near continent during the coming week.

From Tues onwards winds become S or SW'erly for the rest of the week, so becoming increasingly milder with temps creeping up through the low teens across England and Wales. It does look like turning unsettled on Wednesday, as the high across the south moves into near continent allowing the first Atlantic shortwave moving around the trough to the west to move NE across the UK spreading in rain. There is some uncertainties later next week, ECM is keen to build a transitory ridge back in across southern UK, while GFS keeps it more unsettled. But general theme is turning milder and becoming unsettled by mid-week.

[MP-R]

Good to finally see a change afoot with something a bit more interesting from Wednesday with the high slipping away, a short period of southwesterlies veering round to a more WNW direction.

Tuesday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

Wednesday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Thursday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Friday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Saturday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Could be a wet one.

So another few days of cool(th) then the temps on the rise with some rain, spring looks like finally arriving.

[damianslaw]

Trend for next week will be increasingly mild as we see heights building in from the south and ridging south eastwards meaning a flow from between south west to south east,nothing expcetionally mild but compared to recent weeks it will certainly feel very spring like.

Looking further towards the end of the month, signs of heights remaining fairly strong to the north and north east and I wouldn't be surprised if a northerly developed before the month is out, the polar front jet looks like staying fairly southerly.