Model Output Discussion

[phil nw.]

Not quite as mad as some posters bleating winters over during early November.

Plenty of northern blocking showing up again on the 12z GFS run but nothing really cold

according to the operational run at least.

I must say C.C. i can`t see any Northern blocking on any of the 12z`s.

I get the feeling from your posts that you are reluctant to let Winter go.

Really there are plenty of Lows to our North with any upper High`s over Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

The models all show a Westerly pattern now with a couple of decent bright and mild days to come in the South Westerly flow thenturning a little cooler with rain towards the weekend as the winds turn West/North West.

Nothing remotely like Winters return showing on current output

[The PIT]

ECM cooler than the GFS but does away with the easterly it showed earlier in deep FI. Agrees with GFS for a brief transient cooler blast at T120 just outside the reliable time frame.

[Milhouse]

I know everyone on here seems to hate southwesterlies but i'm really looking forward to later on this week. Here on the east coast we always fair pretty well in terms of sunshine amounts and warmth. Given some decent sunny periods i can see temperatures rocketing well into the mid teens.

[yamkin]

I know everyone on here seems to hate southwesterlies but i'm really looking forward to later on this week. Here on the east coast we always fair pretty well in terms of sunshine amounts and warmth. Given some decent sunny periods i can see temperatures rocketing well into the mid teens.

I agree Milhouse, but according to the latest ECM & GFS models, this milder period may be short lived.

[johnholmes]

Well for those wanting cold to return then the 00z GFS, with support at T+240 from ECMWF, way out into FI from about T+150'ish, must seem like manner from heaven.

Those who want warmer weather to take over will hope its wrong.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well for those wanting cold to return then the 00z GFS, with support at T+240 from ECMWF, way out into FI from about T+150'ish, must seem like manner from heaven.

Those who want warmer weather to take over will hope its wrong.

Yes ,quite true John. Models ,well gfs and ecm are yet again backing a cold spell, like they were a few days ago before dropping the idea! Must say though that given the time of year and the Cold Winter thats engulfed most of the Northern Hemisphere and a trend this time of year for an increase in East/northeasterly winds it all looks pretty plausible imho, but of course living on this unique little Island anything is possible!!

[MR EXTREMES]

I must say C.C. i can`t see any Northern blocking on any of the 12z`s.

I get the feeling from your posts that you are reluctant to let Winter go.

Really there are plenty of Lows to our North with any upper High`s over Europe.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

The models all show a Westerly pattern now with a couple of decent bright and mild days to come in the South Westerly flow thenturning a little cooler with rain towards the weekend as the winds turn West/North West.

Nothing remotely like Winters return showing on current output

i very much agree it would seem to be the most likely outlook,

with the jet returning north so very spring like,

wet perhapes windy cool/warm and the kitchen sink.

the only concern i have is with the winter being so prolonged,

could this pass over through spring/summer with the jet not returning north far enough to allow to much settled weather and being more like the summer 2007.

this also maybe going through summer just a theory and agreed it has no link with current models so i apoligise for that.

lol although thats deep deep in super fi.

i just feel like climate seem to be shifting towards normal seasons,

everything does very much seem 80s style.

[Polar Continental]

Yes a long way off, though some good support from the main models this morning for another good dose of northern blocking developing around T168.

The GFS has hinted at this on a few runs lately, before dropping the idea again.

We will see.

ECM T168

ECM T192

GFS T162, projects an easterly.

GFS T180, Develops northern blocking

[cooling climate]

All three models the ECM, UKMO and the GFS now showing a much colder outlook

from the weekend onwards which is what was suggested by myself and NSSC so not

quite as mad as some believed.

This is brought about by significant blocking to the north and again as I said before

a tanking AO. We are of course still talking a week away so things could change but I

for one believe a big switch in the weather is on the way.

The ECM and GFS models have been showing this trend for several days now and I

notice on the ECM stratosphere zonal wind anomalies charts there are large negative

wind anomalies showing up above 60 north in the outlook.

[Weather-history]

By the way, Easter is about to creep onto the GFS charts right out in FI.

Will it be a cold Easter? Here is Maundy Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

[Eugene]

Yes poor looking models for spring really, today could be the last glorious spring day with more in the way of mild temps and lots of cloud/rain giving way to colder unsettled weather.

[Eugene]

but I

for one believe a big switch in the weather is on the way.

lol it was mainly cold from mid Dec to the end of last week, hardly a big switch if we go back to cold patterns towards the end of March.

The actual big switch in the weather is from tomorrow until the weekend when we see temps we havent seen in ages and it will feel very strange indeed putting up with such warm temps after all the cold we had to get used to.

Edited March 16, 2010 by Eugene

[snowfish]

Yes poor looking models for spring really, today could be the last glorious spring day with more in the way of mild temps and lots of cloud/rain giving way to colder unsettled weather.

Not uncommon at the end of March - this is usually when winter's sting in its tail presents itself - this might be it before spring returns as there is now agreement between all the main models, when spring does return after what COULD be a pretty potent northerly/easterly spell, hopefully it will be here to stay...

[cooling climate]

lol it was mainly cold from mid Dec to the end of last week, hardly a big switch if we go back to cold patterns towards the end of March.

The actual big switch in the weather is from tomorrow until the weekend when we see temps we havent seen in ages and it will feel very strange indeed putting up with such warm temps after all the cold we had to get used to.

The last several days have been quite spring like so I do not understand your post. I have been out over the park

with my grandchildren and my dogs without a coat. Today is ment to hit 15c in many areas, maybe you live on a mountain because it certainly has not been cold for a few days now.

I think you have cold on the brain.

Edited March 16, 2010 by cooling climate

[MR EXTREMES]

i will say it teach me for being sloppy your very right it does look to be heading that way and easter has been known to produce suprises in terms of cold.

the thing i was talking about is the jet position,

i really dont think the jet is going to jump very far north for a longtime.

it just seems to be the trend what i mean is the effect now,is it possible that it could stay fairly south compaired to years where hot summers were the norm.

so it could be possible that spring and summer could be alot different to the hotter years.

Edited March 16, 2010 by badboy657

[The PIT]

Interesting charts. Just a subtle change in positioning of lows in FI so this could be a new trend or just the normal FI tease. Interesting to watch. In the reliable time frame though mild, breezy at time with spells of light rain.

Got to give the models charts of the winter award for interest and spring could also claim some very interesting charts.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The ECM has a lot of promise about it and the GFS agrees about the blocking to the north too. Important though that we don't end up with low pressure over the UK like the second half of Feb, or, even worse with low pressure just to the west of the UK and wet and windy mild southwesterlies over the UK and the colder drier air over the atlantic. The GEM goes along those lines - that is not a good outcome.

However, if the low pressure can get south of the UK as the ECM this morning suggests then we can get the right side of the polar front and some more easterlies or north easterlies could be on the way

GFS 06z is nearly there, but things are being spoilt a bit by that nuisance Iberian ridge

Edited March 16, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cooling climate]

The ECM has a lot of promise about it and the GFS agrees about the blocking to the north too. Important though that we don't end up with low pressure over the UK like the second half of Feb, or, even worse with low pressure just to the west of the UK and wet and windy mild southwesterlies over the UK and the colder drier air over the atlantic. The GEM goes along those lines - that is not a good outcome.

However, if the low pressure can get south of the UK as the ECM this morning suggests then we can get the right side of the polar front and some more easterlies or north easterlies could be on the way

GFS 06z is nearly there, but things are being spoilt a bit by that nuisance Iberian ridge

As you say nearly there, if the low out west disrupts and undercuts the block as the 0z ECM

run shows then we could be in for a fairly potent cold spell of weather.

I would not be surprised to see some much colder options in the ensembles.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

As you say nearly there, if the low out west disrupts and undercuts the block as the 0z ECM

run shows then we could be in for a fairly potent cold spell of weather.

I would not be surprised to see some much colder options in the ensembles.

Yes, as far as the London ECM ensembles are concerned then the operational is one of the colder members in places but is certainly not without support. A few members wouldn't have looked out of place back in January

These have definitely trended colder today. Have to see what latest GFS members think

Edit: GFS members agree well on a cool-off after this weeks mild weather. Some scatter after that with a few very cold members - much the same as the ECM

Edited March 16, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Optimus Prime]

It looks all very normal to me on the models for March. Cold 1/3 March warmer 2/3 and then cold and warm sharing the last 1/3. I do think there is a higher chance of a cold April this year as the Northern blocking starts to regather strength.

[mushymanrob]

as ever, with a much more mobile outlook fi is showing great ranges in what might happen. theres as much warmth as their is cold, i expect the reality will be somewhere in between although odd days (as opposed to lengthy spells) of extreme mild/cold might well be manifest.... typical march really.

[johnholmes]

As you say nearly there, if the low out west disrupts and undercuts the block as the 0z ECM

run shows then we could be in for a fairly potent cold spell of weather.

I would not be surprised to see some much colder options in the ensembles.

CC

But HOW is that going to be achieved-how about you explain how you feel it might happen please?

I could make an equally good case for saying if this happens and then that we could get a very mild and quite dry SE flow?

In reality it would seem highly unlikely my comment would develop hence I don't make that point.

I really wish all posters, if they feel something COULD happen, be it a mild or cold set up would explain how and why and give an opinion on how likely. That way those new to the forum and model watching might learn.

[Eugene]

then we could be in for a fairly potent cold spell of weather.

If it was winter yes, i think you have forgotton its approaching late March now and that just like from late September you need special setups for anything potent cold or warm wise, the potential is there for colder and wet weather after the very mild and very wet weather this weekend, i dont see anything potent cold wise that is widespread snow and temps around 1C by day.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

CC

But HOW is that going to be achieved-how about you explain how you feel it might happen please?

I could make an equally good case for saying if this happens and then that we could get a very mild and quite dry SE flow?

In reality it would seem highly unlikely my comment would develop hence I don't make that point.

I really wish all posters, if they feel something COULD happen, be it a mild or cold set up would explain how and why and give an opinion on how likely. That way those new to the forum and model watching might learn.

Irrespective of whether you believe it or not John, it might be worth looking at post 359. CC has given his reasoning there, and whether one agrees with it or not, or whether there is more to it or not, he has backed up his reasoning.

I would not disagree with him that another spell of blocking to the north is quite feasible - much as stated for the last week or two.

There is an issue wrt timing, but zonal stratospheric winds remain weak, with further negative (easterly) anomalies available as CC suggests - the 30mb stratosphere level is average and the AO as CC has again said is showing good signs of going negative.

And additionally as OP says, it is simply just not unusual to see blocked patterns and easterly and northerly winds through Spring anyway.

Can't access the MJO forecast atm - but this has been weak of late but developments seem to be progressing much as Brickfielder and GP last stated a week or so ago -and this supported an evolution back to blocking to the north. It could be that the sequence has been merely delayed.

Edited March 16, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cooling climate]

CC

But HOW is that going to be achieved-how about you explain how you feel it might happen please?

I could make an equally good case for saying if this happens and then that we could get a very mild and quite dry SE flow?

In reality it would seem highly unlikely my comment would develop hence I don't make that point.

I really wish all posters, if they feel something COULD happen, be it a mild or cold set up would explain how and why and give an opinion on how likely. That way those new to the forum and model watching might learn.

You could do with brushing up on your manners for a start.

All I was suggesting was that if the GFS 06z has the low in the Atlantic modeled wrong and

the ridge from the north is stronger then you might see a similar synoptics to what the ECM

shows.

Edited March 16, 2010 by cooling climate