Model Output Discussion

[Rollo]

.... hello guys

now that the horrid cold appears to be going, ill wake up!

im liking the current model outputs, especially the gfs which suggests milder or much milder conditons into fi.. pretty dry too.

Well mushy-we cold lovers had our run and now hopefully for us all its your turn. It certainly looks like it from the current charts.

[Thundery wintry showers]

IMHO confidence is growing on a mild spell of weather, with high pressure close enough to the south and east to promote the scenario of warm sunshine and 12-15C by day over much of England and Wales, and temperatures dropping close to freezing overnight due to clear skies and light winds. Indeed, the potential is there for something along the lines of what happened in mid-March last year.

I would hesitate to generalise as far as "hopefully for us all"- as well as the minority who would rather it stayed cold there are also those who wouldn't fancy something mild but dull and drizzly (whereas I imagine Mushy probably would). It looks an unlikely scenario over England and Wales as above, but particularly if the HP ends up to the south of current progs, it could certainly end up that way over much of Scotland and Ireland, and possibly parts of north-west England, in which case it may not feel any warmer in those areas than it has done over the last week.

The charts in FI illustrate the fickle nature of spring with cold airmasses never too far away to the north despite mild weather persisting in the vicinity of Britain, and correspondingly I don't think it's likely to be "set mild" for the rest of March, but certainly a week or more of relatively mild temperatures looks likely.

[derrylynne]

.... hello guys

now that the horrid cold appears to be going, ill wake up!

im liking the current model outputs, especially the gfs which suggests milder or much milder conditons into fi.. pretty dry too.

Agree with you there Rob. Like you I am fed up with this cold and just want something milder now. The coldies have had a good winter - now us mild lovers want a good spring and summer:-) The charts are certainly promising something much milder with temperatures at last in double figures...

[Ben_Cambs]

Well it looks like the Southern arm of the Jet will remain well to our South, but at the same time the Northern arm of the jet will strengthen and will probably bring a period of westerlies, with temperatures probably slightly above average in most areas (13C in the South, 9-10C in the North) looks quite probable IMO. HP looks likely to influence our weather for some time yet, with the North-West most prone to unsettled weather. IMO, towards the final third of the month, the HP will slowly sink allowing much more unsettled weather in to all areas.

Edited March 10, 2010 by Snowman0697

[I remember Atlantic 252]

.... hello guys

now that the horrid cold appears to be going, ill wake up!

im liking the current model outputs, especially the gfs which suggests milder or much milder conditons into fi.. pretty dry too.

agree with that as its mid march, like 12Z for next week in FI, but would also like it if it was showing cold and snow, as long as its dry lets have it warm now, as rain sucks

[Tom D]

It's about time we had some warm weather, this winter has been fantastic but I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting to not have to wrap up every time I go out now.

I'd still like the month to come out just below average in CET terms however it depends on how mild it gets next week and for how long. Currently March is 3.5c below average!

Edited March 10, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Cheese Rice]

Well what a surprise, the GFS touted the mild weather on many runs but it now looks average or just below, there has been a definite shift away from milder weather. The northerly at T108 http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100310/18/108/h850t850eu.png gets very close to the UK compared to previous runs, and there is a chance of prolonged heavy snow in the north/North East Scotland at T108.

Perhaps subsequent runs may push the northerly further west thus giving the UK a full on northerly blast?

[weather_it_will]

It might get warmer but it will be wetter too!

Maybe hit 15C around 23rd March, then it cools down again.

No real warm up....just a bit more rain and slightly milder in about a weeks time.

[Duane S.]

Again the models are starting to hint that maybe the 'warm spell' will not be quite what some were hoping for. Warming up for sure over the next few days but watch this space I would say, a northerly or an Easterly may well be on the cards in 7-10 days time as the odds on a sinking high pressure bringing us some nice spring warmth have widened quite considerably I would say.

[Polar Continental]

Again the models are starting to hint that maybe the 'warm spell' will not be quite what some were hoping for. Warming up for sure over the next few days but watch this space I would say, a northerly or an Easterly may well be on the cards in 7-10 days time as the odds on a sinking high pressure bringing us some nice spring warmth have widened quite considerably I would say.

Yes, the GFS this morning looks to have picked up a cooler trend once again, this could start as early as Monday. That small disturbance running round the eastern periphery of the high looks as though it could bring a northerly on future runs. I think the 06z could be an interesting run regarding that small development.

[The PIT]

Cold air not very far away but to get it we need one these secondary features to run in our favour for once. ECM not really playing ball with this with more average temps before a warm up in deep FI.

It seems that the models are struggling again as they have been for months so anything can still happen.

[TEITS]

Have to say im not sure I agree with some of the posts this morning.

The outlook to me suggests remaining dry, settled but becoming milder. Looking at the GEFS ensembles and the ECM output suggests temps probably rising to around 12-13C by around the 19th March. Certainly no heatwave but this would feel rather pleasant in any spells of sunshine.

Could change although from a personal POV I hope not!

[mushymanrob]

Have to say im not sure I agree with some of the posts this morning.

The outlook to me suggests remaining dry, settled but becoming milder. Looking at the GEFS ensembles and the ECM output suggests temps probably rising to around 12-13C by around the 19th March. Certainly no heatwave but this would feel rather pleasant in any spells of sunshine.

Could change although from a personal POV I hope not!

indeed dave, whilst this mornings runs arnt as warm as previous, they are still better then recent conditions (temps wise)and the trend is certainly towards more normal conditions.

[TEITS]

indeed dave, whilst this mornings runs arnt as warm as previous, they are still better then recent conditions (temps wise)and the trend is certainly towards more normal conditions.

I do feel sorry for you Mushy what with 2 crap summers, 2 cold winters. I am willing mild in the model output just for you mate.

Little support for the 0Z GFS around the 19th March with the mean around +4C.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100311/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Edited March 11, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[cooling climate]

The near miss easterly that at one time was showing ice days and blizzard conditions for

parts of the UK really was a potent affair by all accounts.

Here is a snow and ice chart still showing lying snow over much of southern France and

into Spain. It has been like this for several days now.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Nick Sussex who lives in southwest France posted yesterday in the cold spell thread a

maximum of 2.5c despite a good deal of sunshine.

The reason why I posted this is that given the right synoptics and being some 400 + miles

further north then the threat of a potent cold spell is still very real during the month of

March. So given the amount of blocking and ridging showing up in the models I would not

rule anything wintry out for a few weeks yet.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

As suggested in recent days, each time the models try and flatten out the jet and bring south westerlies they revert to amplyfing the pattern again. The outlook is fairly average and with hints of pressure builds to the north next week then every chance of one of those Spring type wintry snaps showing up in the coming couple of days or so

Even if that doesn't happen, the recent chilly and dry easterly spell with sunshine has been very welcome indeed and so just further dry quiet and chilly weather will be fine.

[cooling climate]

It would not take much judging by the 06z GFS run to see a much colder pattern

setting up for next week. Compared to the 0z run the latest GFS run has brought the

cold further west in the t72 to t120 time frame.

[Weather-history]

Its deja vu all over again.

Remember early February and it looked as though the mild was going to make a breakthrough only for it to give a glancing blow?

Edited March 11, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Higher Ground]

Its deja vu all over again.

Remember early February and it looked as though the mild was going to make a breakthrough only for it to give a glancing blow?

Looks like a pretty major breakthrough by the end of next week on the GFS 6z. If it came off, even 20C might be possible. Not sure it will come off though, seems there is a trend for everything to be pushed progressively westwards, as previous posts have suggested, and has happened throughout this winter.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Persistant signal for warmth next week, though maybe cloudy on monday and tuesday, we eventually get the 5C isotherm so maxima topping out in the high teens towards the end of next week.

[La Bise]

So sum up for dunces: a litteral interpretation of the models is a return to much milder conditions by the end of next week however this is to be taken with a large pinch of salt as it is a repeat of a scenario that has occured during all winter, the vanishing FI mild. No major changes reported in the background signals, so a betting man would dismiss the models as being way over-progressive.

Fair sum up you reckon?

As for what could happen, a puny northerly followed by a slack flow and hp to re-assert itself after a threat of an easterly...?

[summer blizzard]

Must say that the modeling still favours a very amplified flow, going from northerly to southerly to easterly.

[mushymanrob]

I do feel sorry for you Mushy what with 2 crap summers, 2 cold winters. I am willing mild in the model output just for you mate.

Little support for the 0Z GFS around the 19th March with the mean around +4C.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100311/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

erm... thats 3 crap summers mate! but thanks... i dont mind some cold, ive always cited witer 81-2 as my fav... the cold had the courtesy to go! lol.

im late starting work, its now costing me c£150 a day in lost earnings and im not starting for 2 weeks yet.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The outlook to me suggests remaining dry, settled but becoming milder. Looking at the GEFS ensembles and the ECM output suggests temps probably rising to around 12-13C by around the 19th March. Certainly no heatwave but this would feel rather pleasant in any spells of sunshine.

Could change although from a personal POV I hope not!

Not sure I agree (although it may be a matter of taste here), I see a lot of cloudy weather and the odd bit of drizzle from the current outputs, thanks to weak fronts moving across from time to time, and the temperatures of 12-13C are out in FI and subject to considerable change. The mild weather and more especially the sunshine have downgraded considerably on this morning's runs.

The coming week will be warmer than the last one, but except if you live in south-east England or East Anglia (where, in contrast to the rest of the UK, the last few days have been dull) it probably won't actually feel any warmer because of more cloud cover.

However the models are only just picking up new signals so maybe something with more interest will show up on future runs.

[Cheese Rice]

Interesting run from the GFS, I don't think the mild weather will come anytime soon tbh. A few days ago I thought milder weather was very likely with pretty good agreement but again the GFS is colder than previous runs, with any "mild" weather not reaching the UK till T150 which is too far out. Interestingly the northerly at T96 is further West, hopefully the next run will push it even further west. I don't think anyone can complain at a blast from the north which would bring much wanted sunshine and snow showers, with some inland showers possible. From an IMBY point of view I don't mind what weather we get as in Leeds we have had sunshine all week with some cloud at time with average temps which has been great, but you only have to look at the radar to see many northern parts and southern areas have been plagued with low cloud, fortunately we have been in the middle.