Model Output Discussion

[guitarnutter]

This chart seems strange, a large are with really slack pressure.

[Cheese Rice]

This chart seems strange, a large are with really slack pressure.

I though that too, it's like the jet stream has shut down.

[La Bise]

As everybody seems bored to tears with the models, I've got a little task for you chaps for which I would be quite grateful, what's your considered opinion on the possible weather in Snowdonia for the week-end of the 20/21st of March...? Return of the Atlantic and the damp or stuck in settled conditions? MetO reckons it's the former.

[kold weather]

Yep things become very slack indeed in our neck of the woods, the strong upper high weakens and the PV shifts then also weakens as well and we are left in a no mans land. What sort of temps we get out of that will totally depend on cloud, the night time mins would still be more then low enough IF the skies are clear to offset lightly milder maxes but obviously cloud would probably lead to temps very close to average for the time of year.

[Polar Continental]

Little change from the models this morning, all showing high pressure firmly in control, some cold nights ahead producing sharp frosts, but should feel pleasant enough by day in the sunshine and out of the wind.

The 0z GEM begins to evolve a more interesting prognostic pattern for next weekend as the high start a regression north west, thus hinting that a northerly flow could develop, nothing special at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on if this pattern is picked up by the other models on subsequent runs.

GEM T168

[phil nw.]

Yep things become very slack indeed in our neck of the woods, the strong upper high weakens and the PV shifts then also weakens as well and we are left in a no mans land. What sort of temps we get out of that will totally depend on cloud, the night time mins would still be more then low enough IF the skies are clear to offset lightly milder maxes but obviously cloud would probably lead to temps very close to average for the time of year.

Little change from the all the 00zmodels.

The High remains over the UK for the next few days and the general pattern remains slow moving with any low pressure to the far North.

Maybe more cloud later as we pick up a light drift off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

A very quiet start to Spring.

[MP-R]

Absolutely awful runs today still, unless you like cloudy muck for days on end of course. The first interesting bit of weather arrives on March 15th in FI according to the GFS:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

And that's what I like to see at this time of year - a nice clean polar maritime airmass which would bring sunshine and showers.

Could be a half/half month judging by what I see at the moment. So I say bring on the second half of the month because this one big switcharound from what has been a fantastic winter of model-watching.

[cooling climate]

Finally the 06z GFS run shows us a northerly which I think some models runs of late

have been hinting at. The GFS of course turns it into a snow fest but after the latest

failed ice age scenario the GFS was showing regarding this easterly, I do not think

anyone will be taken in by what the GFS is showing detail wise at 168 + hours out.

Yesterday I mentioned that a northerly outbreak was favored in 7 to 10 days time

so we shall see.

One thing I noticed and I know it may not verify but the low that is off the coast of

Norway between t120 and t144 that then decides to travel south pulling down the

much colder air to the north. Now why couldn't the low back in early February (if posters

remember the synoptics) have done the same. For such a evolution would I believe

have led to a CET for February rivaling that of February 1986 perhaps.

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like a couple of the coldest nights so far for this month,and tomorrow will be cold too.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2417.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn4817.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn3617.png

Drying up spells seem to happen this time of year.

[The PIT]

Well an FI northerly which could go the way of the easterly and be too far east or south as in the present case, to provide us with a really cold blast. Again the cool/cold run continues without any real sign of any really warm weather.

[reef]

Absolutely awful runs today still, unless you like cloudy muck for days on end of course. The first interesting bit of weather arrives on March 15th in FI according to the GFS:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

And that's what I like to see at this time of year - a nice clean polar maritime airmass which would bring sunshine and showers.

Could be a half/half month judging by what I see at the moment. So I say bring on the second half of the month because this one big switcharound from what has been a fantastic winter of model-watching.

Im not sure what charts you are looking at but the GFS is showing sunny skies for the majority of the UK until at least Saturday, heres a chart for Thursday for example:

Cloud amounts might be higher at times in the south which is under the influence of a light easterly flow. However it essentially looks like more of the same with warm sunshine and temperatures of 6-10C during the day but with hard frosts overnight. The weekend then sees a front move down from the north with polar air behind it, though this is still too far out to speculate on as of yet.

[Eugene]

Looks like the cold weather goes on for another week at least with maybe a cold northerly next weekend, pretty amazing this run of cold weather, yes 6C to 7C is cold for March in the midlands and south they are average winter maxs not average March maxs with bonechilling nights, -6C forecasted for the midlands tonight which is incredible for March, the days are getting as long as very early October now, doubt we would see -6C or colder in the midlands that early

Edited March 6, 2010 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Absolutely awful runs today still, unless you like cloudy muck for days on end of course. The first interesting bit of weather arrives on March 15th in FI according to the GFS:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

And that's what I like to see at this time of year - a nice clean polar maritime airmass which would bring sunshine and showers.

Could be a half/half month judging by what I see at the moment. So I say bring on the second half of the month because this one big switcharound from what has been a fantastic winter of model-watching.

No absolutely awful is mild sw'lys with lots of cloud and rain, the outlook doesn't look awful for most but not as great as some would make you believe with the chance of cloud cover in southern/eastern areas in the early week, i think you expect way too much from March in what is the first month of spring, mild atlantic muck is quite common in March so the cool HP theme is pretty good for people who like chilly weather.

For proper spring fans i guess you could say they are poor as no sign of a proper taste of spring with temps into the early to mid teens with mild dewpoints that so many March's can produce.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4210.png - With such bonechilling dewpoints tomorrow night has the potential to be even colder than tonight, that should do the CET no favours at all.

Edited March 6, 2010 by Eugene

[andymusic]

As everybody seems bored to tears with the models, I've got a little task for you chaps for which I would be quite grateful, what's your considered opinion on the possible weather in Snowdonia for the week-end of the 20/21st of March...? Return of the Atlantic and the damp or stuck in settled conditions? MetO reckons it's the former.

There's a good chance that the Atlantic may well re-awaken by then but still bringing in a northerly - but overall the blocking scenarios may still continue well beyond March into the summer - I think it's still too early to put any detail on a date that far out - the meto have now agreed that looking further than 5 days or so can lead to difficulties in getting the forecast right!

[guitarnutter]

Another strange chart!

[Eugene]

No sign of any warmth on a rather cold looking GFS 12Z , pretty amazing i can't see any 10C+`s in england on a run out to T+384 hrs in March :o

[andymusic]

No sign of any warmth on a rather cold looking GFS 12Z , pretty amazing i can't see any 10C+`s in england on a run out to T+384 hrs in March

The blocking seems to be continuing and holding the mild westerly flow at bay!!!!!!!!!!!

[MP-R]

No absolutely awful is mild sw'lys with lots of cloud and rain, the outlook doesn't look awful for most but not as great as some would make you believe with the chance of cloud cover in southern/eastern areas in the early week, i think you expect way too much from March in what is the first month of spring, mild atlantic muck is quite common in March so the cool HP theme is pretty good for people who like chilly weather.

For proper spring fans i guess you could say they are poor as no sign of a proper taste of spring with temps into the early to mid teens with mild dewpoints that so many March's can produce.

I entirely agree, mild southwesterlies is as bad as this high but thankfully they rarely last more than a day or two unlike these highs. I would personally prefer the Atlantic to switch on as it has been in a bit of a slumber over the winter.

I think you've misunderstood as someone who expects it to go from snowing in February to 15C and sunshine at the turn of the month when in fact all I would like is some of what March really can offer. This is more like what I would expect in March:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

[andymusic]

I entirely agree, mild southwesterlies is as bad as this high but thankfully they rarely last more than a day or two unlike these highs. I would personally prefer the Atlantic to switch on as it has been in a bit of a slumber over the winter.

I think you've misunderstood as someone who expects it to go from snowing in February to 15C and sunshine at the turn of the month when in fact all I would like is some of what March really can offer. This is more like what I would expect in March:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

looks like the second half of March may well deliver that!

[La Bise]

There's a good chance that the Atlantic may well re-awaken by then but still bringing in a northerly - but overall the blocking scenarios may still continue well beyond March into the summer - I think it's still too early to put any detail on a date that far out - the meto have now agreed that looking further than 5 days or so can lead to difficulties in getting the forecast right!

Thank you Andy. I somehow think the winter conditions up there won't be going away in a hurry...Right i'm off to buy crampons and ice-axe...

[bluearmy]

the NAEFS continues to advertise a northerly just after mid month with a mean northern arm streak down the western side of the UK. how potent?? TBH, after the model watching rollercoaster of a season we've endured, not sure i can be bothered to care . no sign of spring temps for the foreseeable.

Edited March 6, 2010 by bluearmy

[Cheese Rice]

the NAEFS continues to advertise a northerly just after mid month with a mean northern arm streak down the western side of the UK. how potent?? TBH, after the model watching rollercoaster of a season we've endured, not sure i can be bothered to care . no sign of spring temps for the foreseeable.

Yeah same, I do want more snow and would love a northerly, but I cba watching the runs as the failed easterlies of this winter show nothing is set in stone in the reliable time frame.

[Derp Patrol]

Quite astonishing.. like it has been said, still no sign of mild conditions. Cold to very cold for the time of year for the next 5 days at least. Average March temperatures should be about 11C here, and still we are seeing 5s and 6s, not a sight of even average temperatures. I must admit that it is getting quite tedious now, I would relish some mild or even average temperatures..

[Cheese Rice]

Quite astonishing.. like it has been said, still no sign of mild conditions. Cold to very cold for the time of year for the next 5 days at least. Average March temperatures should be about 11C here, and still we are seeing 5s and 6s, not a sight of even average temperatures. I must admit that it is getting quite tedious now, I would relish some mild or even average temperatures..

I suspect any milder weather will be from mild sw's with plenty of rain, I think we are better of in dry and sunny weather.

[Bolton67]

I must admit that it is getting quite tedious now, I would relish some mild or even average temperatures..

It's becoming very tedious now!! enough is enough.

Looking at the models, HP still dominates us next week. cold and frosty at night, chilly during the day but feeling pleasant in any sunshine.

Boring in other words.