Model Output Discussion

[johnholmes]

thanks for the reply -as you say interesting to see which if any validates.

Currently over 5 days they are all about the same=GFS/EC/Met

at 6 days GFS and EC are about the same with Met having dipped somewhat recently

the above according to the NOAA 5 and 6 day routine checks.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The longer-term outlook certainly looks a lot more mobile and varied than what we've been seeing recently. I still think, after the mild south-westerly type of the next 5-6 days, the outlook could go the way of mild or cold (or a mix of both) and so the question of whether we get a below average March CET is still wide open.

Tuesday is still looking the most conducive to outdoor activities with plenty of sunshine and fairly warm temperatures under a ridge of HP, then from Wednesday to Friday, probably the usual NW-SE split with south-westerlies- cloudy and wet at times in the north and west of Britain but there may be some warm sunshine at times in eastern England, especially the SE.

Overall a far more interesting outlook than we'd been staring at 2-3 days ago- given the increasing likelihood of the cold air trying to attack from the north again towards next week, we might well see something for almost everyone out of this. As for JMA- I think it's rarely particularly accurate to be honest, and often suffers from larger versions of the standard GFS problems- overdeepening lows and overdoing northerlies.

[Stu_London]

The longer-term outlook certainly looks a lot more mobile and varied than what we've been seeing recently. I still think, after the mild south-westerly type of the next 5-6 days, the outlook could go the way of mild or cold (or a mix of both) and so the question of whether we get a below average March CET is still wide open.

given that we already need one of the mildest 2nd halves of March to acheive above average CET, I would say below average is almost certain, given the output on offer and the uncertainty contained therein.

[The PIT]

LOL GFS blows a fuse in deep FI. Now those are charts we used get in March when I was much younger. The return to mild weather had to happen eventually. The southerly jet stream trying to move back north before returning to it's previous position.

So a very mild in parts in the week coming up which will savage the CET temps somewhat.

[phil nw.]

GFS and UKMO continue to model a milder week,especially for places further South with temps. of 12-13C forecasted for some.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

Typical early Spring outlook though with the warmth not long lasting.

The High moves away to the S.E.and much cooler air comes back into the North by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Edited March 14, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Scorcher]

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Very cold 850`s in the short term, amazing how long this cold winter has gone on into the spring, we were supposed to be in milder wetter atlantic based weather by now but still blocking keeps it cold.

Not amazing at all, in fact the last week has been very average by day and a couple of days could well have been considered slightly above.

[Frosty.]

I suspect the GFS 12z in FI is a cold outlier with little or no support, I can't believe we would be plunged back into winter as the op run suggests although the strong late march sun would take the sting out of any arctic or polar continental airflow but the reality will probably be for something coolish in the longer term but nothing special.

[Derp Patrol]

Not amazing at all, in fact the last week has been very average by day and a couple of days could well have been considered slightly above.

Not here it hasn't anyway.. i've struggled to even reach double figures, it still feels like mid winter most of the time apart from today, where we have been reaching 8C at max, 3C below average. Maybe not amazing, but quite astonishing how we have had virtually no mild spells since early December and even this coming week will be just average or slightly above average for most areas.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not here it hasn't anyway.. i've struggled to even reach double figures, it still feels like mid winter most of the time apart from today, where we have been reaching 8C at max, 3C below average. Maybe not amazing, but quite astonishing how we have had virtually no mild spells since early December and even this coming week will be just average or slightly above average for most areas.

This coming week will also be wet from Wednesday with Some areas also having a wet day tomorrow. I don't think there will be anything remotely warm to write home about this coming week .

12z GFS FI was virtually the Coldest option with the mean 850's value staying close to 0 deg .

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there will be a good deal of warmth around Wednesday-Friday with temperatures likely to nudge 15 or 16C in places, and 13-14C will be pretty widespread. That's above the normal for mid March which ranges from 8-9C in the northern half of the country to 10-11C in southern England. However as correctly suggested, for most parts this will occur under a good deal of cloud and rain creating a rather muggy feel, and to quote a common forecasters' phrase, the gusty SW wind will take the "edge" off those temperatures. I think Tuesday will be a sunny day (if not quite as warm, 11-13C likely) for most, and Wednesday will be sunny in the SE before the rain powers in- those days are likely to feel positively warm in the sun with not too much wind at that stage.

[The PIT]

ECM having none of the cold spell displayed by GFS. If ECM verifies a wet mild end of the month bringing too march average possibly. UKMO doesn't really back the GFS either.

[Derp Patrol]

Wind is one factor that definately makes it feel colder at this time of year. 13-15C in the sunshine without wind will feel very pleasant indeed, but the wind often is the deciding factor on whether or not I take of my coat/jumper. Later this week might be the first time that I can sit in the sun with just a T Shirt this year.

One thing that I have noticed on the models for a while now is the heat in eastern/southern Europe. 850s of 20C have been hanging around there for a while and have been tipping southern Greece, whereas the north of the country has seen them at around 5-10. It would be good to see the temperature differences across such a small country.

Edited March 14, 2010 by robthefool

[shotski]

and how often as JMA validated compared to GFS

ECMWF

UK Met

at this time scale?

Oh dear, does that mean a return to cold by the end of the month (if GFS is to be believed ?)

[damianslaw]

GFS keen on bringing in a cooler north westerly by the end of next week with potential therafter for a northerly. One thing that GFS is quite good at is spotting the developments of northerlies, it is much better than ECM and UKMO in this respect, I remember it did very well with spotting the northerly at the end of January.

Could we about to be seeing the 5 day mild if not warm spell Piers Corbyn had forecasted with his March forecast beginning Tuesday and lasting through to Saturday and then for it to be wiped away ala GFS - northerly scenario. I think this is very very plausible, a classic switcharound situation.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

ECM overdoing, as it often does, the downstream ridging over Europe from atlantic lows and FI is yet again another massive warm outlier.

Milder this week with yuksville south westerlies and increasingly unsettled, then cooler and still unsettled, and then colder with wintry showers to see out the month is what I expect

Edited March 14, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[NorthantsSnow]

Goodness me, have we teleported back into winter again?

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-1-276.png?18

Mind you, I'd be lying if I said that was representative of the ensemble suite as a whole. Very much on its own that one!

[The PIT]

Yes it does look like a winter chart. I've noticed the gfs has dumped return of cold until well into deep FI and has followed the ECM line. I suspect more winter stormy line maybe related to the late return of the jet north.

[cooling climate]

The ECM 0z run is not far off from showing a potent wintry outbreak in FI and the GFS 0z

run also shows much colder and perhaps wintry weather around the same time frame.

This trend has been in the models the last few days now and is brought about by a tanking

AO (high latitude blocking over the Arctic).

At 10 days away it is still very much in FI but the models seem very bullish about a -AO

developing therefore I do think there is a reasonably high chance of a major switch in the

weather after the weekend.

At the moment this is still to far out for the UKMO model to pick up on.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png - Very mild very dull southwesterly, strange people are talking of FI cold with charts like this in the reliable timeframe, abit like in the winter but the other way around

[NorthantsSnow]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png - Very mild very dull southwesterly, strange people are talking of FI cold with charts like this in the reliable timeframe, abit like in the winter but the other way around

It doesn't really get a grip on us though does it? A sustained mild spell doesn't appear to be on the menu just yet.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn842.png - Very mild very dull southwesterly, strange people are talking of FI cold with charts like this in the reliable timeframe, abit like in the winter but the other way around

i have to agree come on guys you really think a return to winter is on the cards just by fi ?

sorry i have got to laugh theres no suggestion of a return of winter until fi i expect this to be much more inline with normal spring type weather,

why on earth anyone would think that something in fi will happen is beyond me.

its sexy weather out there today i mean ive not felt so alive until today brillant stuff.

id like to add a comment about the met o and my confidence pinned onto the home page cants seem to get it to load.

but still if this part of my post could be moved there id be greatfull.

i have not lost faith in the meto,

and i do think there new setup is much more realiable,

one thing i have noticed though,

is alot of sites like two outlook and accur weather all called a cold winter and were bang on,but the performance of the winter was from the net weather team.

i think the meto could well listen to sites like net weather and use more in depth methods to come up with a seasonal forecast,

which would have been more realiable than the information they take from other sources, that do seem to be bias towards warming,

there for mistakes being made over and over.

but i think there going to lern a lesson from there 3 years of poor seasonal forecasting,

and will progress in the right direction but only if they dont let the higher power take to much control,

or atleast look at other idears and inputs for seasonal forecasting.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Above-average temperatures starting early this week and persisting through to early next week seems like a pretty sustained mild spell to me! I note that the "boot is now on the other foot" with GFS merely bringing temps down to near average after that, and ECM going for a full-on northerly, with thicknesses low enough to support snow showers. Probably a watered-down cool but not especially cold incursion may be the most likely outcome. For next week- mild & unsettled but sunny tomorrow for most.

[The PIT]

The gfs 12 oz a mild to average run. Wet and breezy at times but no real hint of anything cold. Compaired to the Ecm it's the question of where the lows are placed. GFS further north while the ecm takes them south allowing colder air back in. It'll be interesting too see if the 12 oz ECM keeps the idea up in FI or ditches and falls in line with the gfs. As ever with FI changes will occur.

[cooling climate]

i have to agree come on guys you really think a return to winter is on the cards just by fi ?

sorry i have got to laugh theres no suggestion of a return of winter until fi i expect this to be much more inline with normal spring type weather,

why on earth anyone would think that something in fi will happen is beyond me.

Not quite as mad as some posters bleating winters over during early November.

Plenty of northern blocking showing up again on the 12z GFS run but nothing really cold

according to the operational run at least.

[MR EXTREMES]

Not quite as mad as some posters bleating winters over during early November.

Plenty of northern blocking showing up again on the 12z GFS run but nothing really cold

according to the operational run at least.

did you swollow all my head .

im certainly not suggesting anything much above average also not suggesting anything .

just typical spring weather with models throwing up alsorts perhapes its the transition period which in spring can bring extremes from either side april 2008 springs to mind.