Warm/hot Spells Discussion

[Sunlover]

I'm attending my best friends wedding this Sat (24th) in Bedford. Prob too early but if anyone cd give me a heads up on what the weather might do would be greatly appreciated:)

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm attending my best friends wedding this Sat (24th) in Bedford. Prob too early but if anyone cd give me a heads up on what the weather might do would be greatly appreciated:)

At the moment it's looking as though Saturday in Bedford will be a dry and warm day with sunny periods. Max' temp' around 22 or 23c I would think.

[AderynCoch]

Back from hot and sunny Spain (*sigh*) and it doesn't look like much has changed: more and more and more forecasts along the lines of "sunny and warm in southern and eastern parts, dull with heavy rain at times in the north and west". Another potential fine summer's day has been ruined by the encroaching Atlantic.

I'm fast losing faith in the remainder of summer, as the hot stuff (which has certainly shown up in abundance not a million miles away) just doesn't want to travel just that bit further this year. When are these ridiculous carrot-dangling synoptics going to end? What I'd give for persistent high pressure and southerly winds July 2006-style. Four years ago today...

[Harry]

Back from hot and sunny Spain (*sigh*) and it doesn't look like much has changed: more and more and more forecasts along the lines of "sunny and warm in southern and eastern parts, dull with heavy rain at times in the north and west". Another potential fine summer's day has been ruined by the encroaching Atlantic.

I'm fast losing faith in the remainder of summer, as the hot stuff (which has certainly shown up in abundance not a million miles away) just doesn't want to travel just that bit further this year. When are these ridiculous carrot-dangling synoptics going to end? What I'd give for persistent high pressure and southerly winds July 2006-style. Four years ago today...

2006 was an exception I'm afraid, far from the norm. The average british summer has it warmer and drier towards the SE, cooler and wetter towards the NW. This is just an average british summer (albeit on the drier and slightly warmer side, with hardly any thundery weather to speak of, grr!!)

[Milhouse]

Great to see the warmth back, even though its just brief. We reached 26.2c here and the 5th time this year we've surpassed last years maximum for the whole summer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

2006 was an exception I'm afraid, far from the norm. The average british summer has it warmer and drier towards the SE, cooler and wetter towards the NW. This is just an average british summer (albeit on the drier and slightly warmer side, with hardly any thundery weather to speak of, grr!!)

We do usually get a NW-SE split to some extent but the extent of it this month is much greater than usual. We're looking at western areas being duller and wetter than the long-term normal with suppressed daytime maxima, and the southeast being warmer, drier and sunnier than normal- so a strongly accentuated divide. It was a similar story during August 2009- warm dry and sunny in the SE, dull and wet in the west and not much thunder.

The nearest to a "normal" summer that we've had in the last decade over most of the UK was probably 2005- about 0.5C warmer than average (which is consistent with the general anomaly over the Northern Hemisphere) with rainfall and sunshine close to normal. There were a few exceptions, notably northern Scotland which was duller than average.

July 2006 really was an exceptional month btw- according to Philip Eden it "had no parallel" for its combination of high pressure and southerly winds in records going back well over 100 years. I think it was also relatively unusual for its combination of record heat and sunshine and above average thundery activity- most of the hottest and sunniest months of the past have tended to be very dry and associated with little in the way of thundery activity (e.g. Augusts 1947 & 1995, the summer quarter of 1976).

[AderynCoch]

Indeed, July 2006 really was exceptional but there's no way that the current pattern is typical of summer either: by the same rationale, August 2009 was a normal month but the fact that some eastern areas had their driest August since 1947 and parts of Scotland had their wettest August on record suggests that it was completely abnormal on both sides of the fence.

I do expect to be frustrated like this occasionally during the season, but this setup has gone on for weeks now and I'm absolutely fed up of it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye, I mentioned that in passing in my previous post- this month is developing in a similar vein to August 2009. What's also interesting is that upon scrutiny of the Met Office's actual and anomaly maps, while it was the NW which had the greatest rainfall excess in August 2009, if anything it was the SW which was the coolest and cloudiest relative to normal. I mentioned earlier that the theme of the SW being particularly cool and cloudy relative to normal recurred during Julys 2007-09, and it was also a feature of August 2008.

[Weather-history]

We do usually get a NW-SE split to some extent but the extent of it this month is much greater than usual.

To be a touch pedantic, exactly where is NW? For instance I live in the NW of England but in terms of the British Isles, its not really NW though, if you see what I'm saying.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Good question. In these situations I think of "NW" as meaning central, northern and western Scotland, together with Ireland and north-west England, as those areas have a particularly strong tendency to be wet and cloudy in these situations.

However since 2006 as already noted Wales, the west Midlands and south-west England have also fared very badly- even in August 2009 which many of us quote as having a "NW-SE split".

[Upgrade]

A lovely very warm summer's day here again today - 29 degrees.

It really has been a lovely summer so far in the South East.

Edited July 19, 2010 by jimmyay

[Milhouse]

If the GFS is anything to go by this week shouldnt be too bad temperature wise. Easily into the low 20s quite widely but if we do develop a northerly towards the weekend temperatures may drop back a little into the high teens.

[Andy Bown]

If the GFS is anything to go by this week shouldnt be too bad temperature wise. Easily into the low 20s quite widely but if we do develop a northerly towards the weekend temperatures may drop back a little into the high teens.

Here in West Wiltshire we're in the low 20s now despite rain and it being cloudy since 16.00!

I think it could be quite a warm night!

[Sunlover]

At the moment it's looking as though Saturday in Bedford will be a dry and warm day with sunny periods. Max' temp' around 22 or 23c I would think.

many thanks at least I know wot to pack now!

[reef]

It has been suprisingly warm here today with a max of 26.8C. It was still 20.7C at midnight, which is very muggy indeed for around these parts.

A very different day tomorrow with the weather front sitting across this area. Dry for the moment though.

[Milhouse]

It has been suprisingly warm here today with a max of 26.8C. It was still 20.7C at midnight, which is very muggy indeed for around these parts.

A very different day tomorrow with the weather front sitting across this area. Dry for the moment though.

And still dry here but with a few occasional spots of rain. The warmth is still with us though. Up to 22.3c

[Backtrack]

Indeed. Radar says rain should be here by now, but it isnt.

warm too at 19.9c.

[TEITS]

Feeling very humid today and the temps at 11.00am are 24C already in my location and across much of E Anglia/SE.

[Tucco]

Hopefully make in to 20's next week. Although its not been a cool month, the heat has always stubbonly just to SE across Yorkshire etc.

Mark

[Polar Continental]

Could be a 30c over the south east this afternoon, especially central London, the news papers probably not that far out after all

[Andy Bown]

Fascinating to see how the Cold Front has barely moved since yesterday.

Therefore the heat/humidity is more widespread. I never expected it to be 24.9c today, let alone

by 13.00 and with plenty of hazy sunshine still to come, but that's the result of the stalled front!

[AderynCoch]

Fascinating to see how the Cold Front has barely moved since yesterday.

Does it ever?

By now you should be used to these fronts racing in from the west before hitting the Watford Gap summer forcefield and gradually decaying in situ.

[Upgrade]

the Watford Gap summer forcefield

lol that's the summer version of the snowshield!

[frozencanals]

Afternoon Folks

Not been on here for ages, too busy enjoying the summer weather in SE England and SW France...

We have not seen the sun all day here in Central London, though it is still warming up quite nicely, I think it could end up beeing a sticky night in the Capital as the rain bypasses us once again.

Wonder when the hose pipe bans will start marching southwards

Cheers

FC

[Derp Patrol]

Afternoon Folks

Not been on here for ages, too busy enjoying the summer weather in SE England and SW France...

We have not seen the sun all day here in Central London, though it is still warming up quite nicely, I think it could end up beeing a sticky night in the Capital as the rain bypasses us once again.

Wonder when the hose pipe bans will start marching southwards

Cheers

FC

Yes, it was a sticky night last night, we got down to about 18C, in the city centre i'd imagine closer to 20C. I'm usually fine with night time temperatures up to about 16-17C, but of course when I go to bed it's usually a good 5C higher.