Warm/hot Spells Discussion

[johnholmes]

It may seem an odd comment but its encouraging to note that people looking closely at the precip predictions are linking it to perhaps a more realistic view of them when we get to winter and possible snow set ups.

Remember in summer there is only one variable, will the cloud be thick enough for rain, assuming the prediction for precip is correct.

I'm continuing with my checks on rainfall accuracy both from GFS/Extra, out from T+96, and with NAE from T+48.

In winter, will it snow, has 7 or 8 including the most important is the precip going to be over my area and is the prediction right anyway!

Edited July 12, 2010 by johnholmes

[Wilxy]

I hope its dry next weekend as im going to the air tattoo in fairford near swindon on the saturday one of the best air shows in the world

[jamesay]

Sun's coming out here now, 23.5 deg and pleasantly warm. We've had no rain, so the neigbours mocking me for watering the garden yesterday " dont know why you're bothering, it's gonna pour down all week" have egg on the faces!

[TonyH]

Dont mind this cooler rainy spell! Warm and quite sunny and without the wind thats featured so far this month.

[johnholmes]

welcome to Net Wx James but we need to know your nearest town to appreciate what you have just posted about your weather?

many thanks

[Upgrade]

Sorry John, i logged in under a wrong name by mistake which i registered with years ago and didnt use Comments above from Jamesay are from me!

Appreciate your comments on the rain - one to take note of in the winter- i have noticed several times this summer the forecast rain for the south east / london area is a good deal lighter than predicted, if it turns up at all. Goes to show the difficulty in forecasting the weather.

Absence of thunderstorms too, so far. Was in Southern Greece last week though and we had a cracking one, those Southern European summer thunderstorms don't half pack a punch of lashing rain and very high winds.

cheers

James

[johnholmes]

thanks James

rainfall/precip/snow prediction is not a strong point of any model in my view, in spite of all the obvious improvements in predicting weather patterns more accurately.

I'm currently trying to do a series of checks across the UK checking on GFS/Extra from T+96 down and for NAE from T+48 down.

I intend to drop them into my blog from time to time along with other things like T+240 checks with ECMWF and GFS as well as doing lrf ideas in there.

[Downpour]

The post above about rainfall totals in London/SE is bob on.

I lose track of how many times I have said to friends (without lawns) that BBC weekly forecasts are not to be relied upon when it comes to rainfall here.

They often forecast light rain or heavy rain shower, only for said water to be totally downgraded when the time comes.

London is a very dry place – it rarely rains much here despite the popular perception of our city's weather.

I went to my mate's house on Saturday - he does have a lawn but it was totally brown and parched. I said "why don't you buy a sprinkler, you need it here". He said: "Oh it will recover".

I said: "Mate, it hasn't rained for five weeks. How much rain do you think we are going to get?!'

[Optimus Prime]

Talks of brown lawns and dry weather in summer....well I'll be blowed!

[Upgrade]

Talks of brown lawns and dry weather in summer....well I'll be blowed!

i have lost faith in the amount of rain we're actually going to get here this week. It looks as if some areas might avoid the showers. i am going to keep watering the garden!

[Thundery wintry showers]

London is a very dry place – it rarely rains much here despite the popular perception of our city's weather.

It's very true. In fact London is one of the driest places in Europe- the perception of London being wet is probably more down to relatively low sunshine totals and the frequency of rain rather than the quantity.

On the other hand, rainfall in London is traditionally more reliable than in many other parts of Europe. For instance in much of southern France barring the Mediterranean coast, average summer rainfall is similar to London's but typically falls in a few big thunderstorms, so it is not as unusual for individual months to record under 10mm or over 100mm. The UK's infrastructure is not set up to cope with such extremes because of their rarity.

[Guest]

Well any risk of a drought around here has really been quashed by a miserable day. It's funny to think the last couple of days have been fine and sunny with highs in the mid to high 20's. Today is more reminiscent of October!

No matter what you think of the British climate, it never loses it's ability to surprise! 14.1C!

Edited July 12, 2010 by Steve Vincent

[Eugene]

GFS wasn't that far off afterall(alot of people dismissing it on saturday in model chat i remember)

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=07&TT=12&TIME=1600&TYP=temperatursyn&KEY=MID&TIME=1278954960

Highs of just 14C/15C in the midlands today, that is cold for mid July the average max is around 22C.

[Iceni]

Talks of brown lawns and dry weather in summer....well I'll be blowed!

I don't care whether the lawn's brown, but I do care about my vegetables!

[Moisty]

Not a bad day here at all, a dribble of rain first thing this morning then sunny spells, still 21c now and feeling quite humid, the brown grass carries on for now. Seems hard to imagine how bad it has been in Scotland and NI so far this summer

[Eugene]

Some very unfair criticism of GFS on TWO, for the north/east midlands and parts of northern england the temps only reached 13C to 15C and in central/west midlands only reached 16C very briefly before going down, GFS had the cold temps for central parts of the UK not for the extreme south/southeast which reached around average, how anybody can expect GFS to accurately forecast every single place in the UK 100% days before is beyond me, it did very well today and picked up the cold temps in quite a large area days in advance, i would like to see people forecast temperatures for the whole of the UK correctly days in advance and see how correct they are.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Talks of brown lawns and dry weather in summer....well I'll be blowed!

I mentioned in the "we need the rain" thread that the problem isn't the fact that we're having issues with dry weather, which has recurred throughout history at frequent intervals. The problem is the unusual extent of the dry weather- we have seen some areas set new records for low rainfall since the turn of the year, and during the period April-June.

A glance at the barren landscape around UEA strongly suggests that many aspects of wildlife may benefit strongly from today's dull wet day.

[Optimus Prime]

Yeah but we've had such a run of wet years since 2007 it's hardly overbalancing the dry side. Cold blocked winters are generally very dry anyway (aside from perhaps 47 and 79) 1962/1963 was remarkably dry, particularity Northern Scotland where some areas recorded no rainfall for months with heath fires breaking out. Parts of Scotland had a marginally colder winter than 1962/1963 but it was wetter in all cases this year.

I guess the problem we face now is an even more overcrowded country then was the case in other exceptional dry spells (1995 included) and that the problem has been stretched further than it would have been in the past.

Edited July 12, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[ZONE 51]

im pleased surrey got some rainfall tuesday morning ,here in weybridge most grass is brown and before the rain very dusty , atho not much rain got to the tree bases and under the large trees area, and the wildlife must have enjoyed the rain.

looks like the heat may return next wk for the south.

[Milhouse]

Certainly warming up in the SE on Sunday/Monday and it will be most welcome. This week has been dreadful in comparison to June.

[conor123]

I think we may well squeeze at 28/29c somewhere around the London area on Monday though it wouldn't take much to shift that low a bit further north west and give a larger area warmer temperatures.

[Snowyowl9]

Very little sun this July to normal,just dull moist SW-lys so the max temperature has been more depressed more like 21c

At least there was a shortlived hot thundery spell last July upto 27.5c,no burnt grass here now but not as much rain to the last 3 julys by quite a margin so far,but we have this week to come yet,could be alot of rain in the form of showers.

[damianslaw]

Mmm can't describe July so far as warm in Cumbria. Yet to record 21 degrees, markedly different to the SE..

[Thundery wintry showers]

All of the last three Julys had a west-east split with dull wet weather and suppressed maxima in the west, and close to average sunshine and maxima in the east. It looks like this July is seeing an even starker west-east split- the fourth rotten July in a row in the west, and a warmer drier sunnier one towards the SE.

In Norwich I think the weather has been pretty normal after the first week, but the first week was dry sunny and hot so it's probably still warmer drier and sunnier than average up to now.

[damianslaw]

All of the last three Julys had a west-east split with dull wet weather and suppressed maxima in the west, and close to average sunshine and maxima in the east. It looks like this July is seeing an even starker west-east split- the fourth rotten July in a row in the west, and a warmer drier sunnier one towards the SE.

In Norwich I think the weather has been pretty normal after the first week, but the first week was dry sunny and hot so it's probably still warmer drier and sunnier than average up to now.

Yes indeed we are experiencing another very poor July here in the 'west'. The past four July's have been very poor. Whilst June on average tends to deliver much more settled dry weather than July up here it can often be cool whereas July is the month for proper warmth and we should expect at least one very warm settled spell however brief. Recent Septembers have been better than July.