Convective Discussion

[Chloe]

Im just waiting to see if we have another storm this year like the one we had in August 2004 well overdue!

[dogs32]

Im just waiting to see if we have another storm this year like the one we had in August 2004 well overdue!

tell me about it....some scientific reason why the Spanish Plumes have nearly died out here in the UK...

Or maybe it all goes in Cycles...OVERDUE !!

Edited June 10, 2010 by dogs32

[readingstormchaser]

was going to go down to southsea but looks like its just going to rain so i just might stay at home

[Harry]

That'll keep Harry quiet for a bit.

Phil.

Moi? Quiet? Never...not when there's the slightest sniff of thunder in my area!

Let's not forget people this front is supposed to pulsate throughout the course of the night - one heavier pulse was supposed to swerve past around time, with a subsequent lull, before a fresh batch of more intense, perhaps thundery stuff moves through later.

All a bit might it won't it - have attached my thoughts on thunder risk (bearing in mind this is for isolated flashes/rumbles, not full on embedded thunderstorms by any means, though nevertheless there is a chance). Yellow meaning a slight chance while orange represents a fair/reasonable chance.

Edited June 10, 2010 by Harry

[Guest FireStorm]

ML Cape / Li for the SE on 12z NMM model alone does meet the minimum values needed for a storm across the SE. 18z will give a better hint. It does seem the real heaviest of the rain will remain in the channel with more general moderate to heavy rain along the south coast, into Southern England, South-Central England and across to the West.

SE could still see moderately heavy rain as it moves through in the early morning hours, given the cape / li values its appears to be more thundery then anything but time will tell.

Main reason for say Eastbourne and to the West looking to get the heaviest rain from the Netweather radar is the 1000/850hPa wind vectors are from the SE pushing the main "cell" if you will, towards Eastbourne/IOW. Will depend if theres any additional intensification to its Eastern flank

[loopydreamer]

doesnt look that good now on radar,just heavy rain

oh crap! i was hoping for the storms to fight through the english channel a bit more than that!

oh well....it was never going to get to north kent anyway!

now im thinking about how large these rain totals will get in the s/e? extreme rainfall pumps my adrenaline too!

[Costa Del Fal]

Not surprised to hear the Lightning activity has died out tbh. Still chances left for the rest of the night so i wish you in the S the best of luck but heavy rainfall is a much greater risk. It was always going to be a will it wont it thundery wise tonight anyway imo.

[Mesoscale]

Im all up for seeing lightning but aslong as it dont wake me up with a BANG then im good!

plus i have college tommorow!

[dogs32]

Moi? Quiet? Never...not when there's the slightest sniff of thunder in my area!

Let's not forget people this front is supposed to pulsate throughout the course of the night - one heavier pulse was supposed to swerve past around time, with a subsequent lull, before a fresh batch of more intense, perhaps thundery stuff moves through later.

All a bit might it won't it - have attached my thoughts on thunder risk (bearing in mind this is for isolated flashes/rumbles, not full on embedded thunderstorms by any means, though nevertheless there is a chance). Yellow meaning a slight chance while orange represents a fair/reasonable chance.

whats the dbz's on that Harry

[loopydreamer]

Not surprised to hear the Lightning activity has died out tbh. Still chances left for the rest of the night so i wish you in the S the best of luck but heavy rainfall is a much greater risk. It was always going to be a will it wont it thundery wise tonight anyway imo.

u r right heavy rainfall is the greater risk and im wondering if places in the s/e r going to get some flooding from the amounts of rainfall? we need to keep an eye on this as it could be pretty bad for some areas! i just have a feeling that it could be bad! hope im wrong! it's that lull before the storm feeling!

Im all up for seeing lightning but aslong as it dont wake me up with a BANG then im good!

plus i have college tommorow!

sorry! i think thats really funny too! finished my third glass of wine and i better not drink anymore tonight *giggles*

[Callie]

Hmmm well Kaddie was forecasting heavy and maybe thundery rain, will have to wait and see I guess. Been very gusty this afternoon!

[Harry]

whats the dbz's on that Harry

LOL! Not that high I'd imagine do we ever get high dbz's? About once or twice a year, and even then they are relatively high by UK standards...

Hoping for a flash and/or a rumble in the early hours (if I'm awake to hear it)

Hmmm well Kaddie was forecasting heavy and maybe thundery rain, will have to wait and see I guess. Been very gusty this afternoon!

No thunder for us then - Kaddie however lovely she is, is a bit of jynx IMO especially when she forecasts anything thundery and yes I agree, very gusty this afternoon (but warm nevertheless) and on occasions from the North and NorthEast!

Also noticed the rain band is quite rapidly expaned NE across Benelux on the radar, so activity does appear to be increasing.

Edited June 10, 2010 by Harry

[andy_leics22]

sorry! i think thats really funny too! finished my third glass of wine and i better not drink anymore tonight *giggles*

*takes wine away from you and orders you to go sleep*

[VillagePlank]

My best guess is for the late early morning ie much closer to 6am than to midnight based on the 18z upward movement forecast for overnight.

55hPa/hr @700hPa is quite substantial (bordering on explosive) - and it implies mid to high level storms. Lightning without the noise? Perhaps. Further clarification will come once the forecast skew-t's are out.

No warnings from the MetO, yet: but I'd expect at least heavy rain warnings later in the night. Not a good morning for drive into work in the S/E tomorrow morning. Potential for sferics, I suspect, will die during the night, but pep up at around sun-up, which gives this a little chance of rush-hour thunderstorms.

Edited June 10, 2010 by VillagePlank

[loopydreamer]

*takes wine away from you and orders you to go sleep*

hubby has already done that! he's drunk the last lot! im really p*ssed! been down the pub with friends earlier too and drunk 2 double vodka cokes and a pint of stella to celebrate moving house! i am falling asleep as i type! lol! omg! im gonna have one hell of a hang over in the morning!

[andy_leics22]

hubby has already done that! he's drunk the last lot! im really p*ssed! been down the pub with friends earlier too and drunk 2 double vodka cokes and a pint of stella to celebrate moving house! i am falling asleep as i type! lol! omg! im gonna have one hell of a hang over in the morning!

Lmao!

*waves you off up the stairs* shoo shoo!

I'm kidding Do you like Kent then?

[loopydreamer]

Lmao!

*waves you off up the stairs* shoo shoo!

I'm kidding Do you like Kent then?

well.... i grew up in tunbridge wells and met future to be hubby there! we got married in t/wells when i was 21 and then moved to hastings east sussex for 5 yeears before we moved to west midlands 6 years ago or there abouts (cant add up! im drun k) so i have lived down south longer than up in the midlands and its nice to be back nearer my mum, dad , auntie and uncles, cousins, etc. yea you've got it! i have a big family that all live in the south east! so its nice to be back down the south agasin! omkg! im loosing it! gotta sleep! LOL!

[VillagePlank]

snip

Edited June 10, 2010 by VillagePlank

[loopydreamer]

My best guess is for the late early morning ie much closer to 6am than to midnight based on the 18z upward movement forecast for overnight.

55hPa/hr @700hPa is quite substantial (bordering on explosive) - and it implies mid to high level storms. Lightning without the noise? Perhaps. Further clarification will come once the forecast skew-t's are out.

No warnings from the MetO, yet: but I'd expect at least heavy rain warnings later in the night. Not a good morning for drive into work in the S/E tomorrow morning. Potential for sferics, I suspect, will die during the night, but pep up at around sun-up, which gives this a little chance of rush-hour thunderstorms.

I Can really imagine whether we have thunder or not it will be really awful in s/e tomorrow morning! i hope u r right mate! hope sferics do indeed pep up tomorrow morning! fingers xxxxed!

[Kentish Kiwi]

well.... i grew up in tunbridge wells and met future to be hubby there! we got married in t/wells when i was 21 and then moved to hastings east sussex for 5 yeears before we moved to west midlands 6 years ago or there abouts (cant add up! im drun k) so i have lived down south longer than up in the midlands and its nice to be back nearer my mum, dad , auntie and uncles, cousins, etc. yea you've got it! i have a big family that all live in the south east! so its nice to be back down the south agasin! omkg! im loosing it! gotta sleep! LOL!

Guys... This is all getting really off topic and starting to clogg up this thread a little. Any chance you could move it to a more appropriate thread, something like general chat?

[VillagePlank]

I Can really imagine whether we have thunder or not it will be really awful in s/e tomorrow morning! i hope u r right mate! hope sferics do indeed pep up tomorrow morning! fingers xxxxed!

Well unfortunately an upwardly mobile atmosphere simply implies clouds, and not much else really. However, I think it is a reasonable indicator, but, rather like having a go at forecasting snow: if there is one thing out of place it won't happen, and, for me, the one thing out of place is the time of day, which is the coldest part of the night.

Skew-t's will tell the story better, though. Perhaps another hour or so before I can take a quick peek.

But yes, if you are a storm-lover, then at the very least, torrential rain is pretty likely. I'm glad I'm not commuting to London, tomorrow (a few days off - yippee!!)

Edited June 10, 2010 by VillagePlank

[r6 steve]

estofex has given the same warnings for tomorrow exept for a few severe 2 warnings on mainland europe

[willinkent]

Feels stormy out there, had to put away patio umbrella thought it mite fall on tomatoes.... if it were january id of thought it would snow very heavy soon..... bit humid out there too....strange with ne wind... hopefully itll be 20c odd saturday as going to world cup bbq.... rain promised all week here has fizzled to drizzle all week here so probably will do same according to latest radar.... eventhough pretty intense across channel all day... oh well storm shield up and ready to stop any weather system... we shall see and await morning....

[VillagePlank]

For some reason I get a hold of the NetW skew-t's for the 18z. So, here's the skew-t from elsewhere for the 12z:

LI, surprisingly is positive, and there's no CAPE to talk of. The positive LI might indeed be the show stopper, so talk of storms might well have been a little premature.

Interestingly, TT is at 47 which implies likely thunderstorms (but sparse, and not severe), and the K-Index shows 31 which indicates moderate convective potential. Of course, this is what the atmosphere is like, here, not what might be arriving. However, surviving the channel at the coldest point of the night it seems highly unlikely that electrification will still be present, and any storms that might occur will have to rely on the atmosphere 700hPa or higher in order to pep them up.

Certainly lots of rain to wake up to in the morning, though

[Coast]

No thunder for us then - Kaddie however lovely she is, is a bit of jynx IMO especially when she forecasts anything thundery

Yep, Kaddie was the final nail in the coffin for storms last night!!!! (Kaye is more conducive to storms :winky:)

Some how it didn't just add up yesterday afternoon. Soundings and charts weren't 'quite there' and the flurry of activity in France was another no-show for us like many before. Never mind, plenty more chances to come this year yet!!! (but probably not today eh?)