Convective Discussion

[andy_leics22]

Well I'm in a minority here I suspect But I don't want a single flash of lightning or rumble of thunder in my area as I can't stand them

good luck to those who like them though

Gordon Bennett!!

LOL, to be honest I get a lil worried during storms incase lightning hits our house or something and causes damage. It has never happened but I have known in the past of a few houses in Leicestershire that got struck by lightning during a big storm and they got serious fire damage because of it.

I do like storms though.

[r6 steve]

i remember when i was a child and we lived in married quarter me and me dad was looking out of the window with a metal window frame and lightening struck the window frame and broke a few tiles of the window sill!!

[Dorset_Weather]

hi hazard

what do you think our chances are for some activity down here?

Hey Steve,

I'm not so sure, these heavy thundery showers do look like they will be heading South towards us this evening/tonight, will just have to hope they keep up there intensity when they get here, they could also be quite wide spread with some places getting a drowning and some staying dry.

I certainly will be keeping my eye on developments today in the hope of jumping in the car in the hope of some more lighting pics :-)

[weatherobsuk]

I really should stop heading away from the PC Monitor, as every day I do it seems something new springs up out the blue. Back on topic i'm just catching up with todays warnings and watch, Is this a overriding Front or a surface feature to which possible SLW could be expected from any convective activity?

[Gordon]

don't know why I'm so worried

We've had storms from past years that have drifted up from france after a few days heat (you know the type) and probably a lot worse than aything that'll be seen today and I'm still here

I think it's just the uncertainly of if and when we get any because when they start I go into a certain mindset which I maintain for hours and actually calms me down but does little for a manly image

anyway enough of me taking this off topic

[Guest]

The sky has that undulating look to it now. Encouraging definitely. Also the line of showery rain that si currently over NW England and N Wales is heading directly eastwards with not even a thought of going south yet. Again encouraging. The stuff over N. Ireland is moving more ESE though.

Also a few spots of rain now. 

[Craigers]

The sky has that undulating look to it now. Encouraging definitely. Also the line of showery rain that si currently over NW England and N Wales is heading directly eastwards with not even a thought of going south yet. Again encouraging. The stuff over N. Ireland is moving more ESE though.

Also a few spots of rain now. 

this helps to materialise the pattern of the NMM models , we could do very well from this if NMM is correct!

[Gordon]

The sky has that undulating look to it now. Encouraging definitely. Also the line of showery rain that si currently over NW England and N Wales is heading directly eastwards with not even a thought of going south yet. Again encouraging. The stuff over N. Ireland is moving more ESE though.

Also a few spots of rain now. 

weather09 said

Rain over Wales is associated with the cold front/occlusion. The risk for heavy showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms from the Midlands southward will be greatest from late afternoon onwards and throughout the night, as Low and associated upper cold pool post-frontal airmass situates over central and southern England during this period, so sufficiently unstable environment present after sunset.

that may explain that rain moving Eastwards and the showers over NI moving ESE

[Craigers]

i might be going mad here but theres slight rotation in the clouds at the moment! ill take a photo of the rotating part!

just above the tree is where its slowly rotating!

[sunny scunny]

It's clouding over here, but after looking at the radar it's unlikely i'll see many showers here anytime soon.

[Mesoscale]

Im just having a break from the studio and thought id check up on this thread as i haven't wrote anything in a while!

So what are the chances for northern london to catch anything?

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite an unstable looking sky here now.

i might be going mad here but theres slight rotation in the clouds at the moment! ill take a photo of the rotating part!

just above the tree is where its slowly rotating!

I dont see anything rotating!

[weatherobsuk]

Same skies here, but it looks like the undulating Altostratus is being caught in a localised convergence.

[Craigers]

Quite an unstable looking sky here now.

I dont see anything rotating!

just the movement of the cloud in the middle of the photo had circular motion as the shower is moving east.

[The PIT]

Just light showers here. Still brewing though looking at the radar. No sign of any storms at the moment though.

[Craigers]

Same skies here, but it looks like the undulating Altostratus is being caught in a localised convergence.

that explained it for me, cheers

[andy_leics22]

Just light showers here. Still brewing though looking at the radar. No sign of any storms at the moment though.

Looks like quite a lot of rain to come for Sheffield area over the next 3 hours+. Loads of showers packing in from the West heading towards you. I can't see much in the way of thunder today for England, it's 3pm and no thunderstorms have kicked off yet. There is only about another 3 hours before storm activity will start to die down so time is running out for something to happen!

[Guest]

Looks like quite a lot of rain to come for Sheffield area over the next 3 hours+. Loads of showers packing in from the West heading towards you. I can't see much in the way of thunder today for England, it's 3pm and no thunderstorms have kicked off yet. There is only about another 3 hours before storm activity will start to die down so time is running out for something to happen!

I read on UKWW that any storms will likely spark off late afternoon early evening and continue through the night as they track SE'wards. So don't despair just yet ;-)

[weatherobsuk]

The showers will be forming into late afternoon/evening, there not your typical "summer storms" where Heating is the rule, but the Trough behind this Front will fire up as a result of destabilised air under Forcing from the Cold Pool behind it. Hence why the MetO and many other organisations are putting watches out for Central/Southern parts overnight aswell as later on today.

The rain over Wales into England isn't the main area to watch for, its that batch of precip out towards N.Ireland which is following behind.

[Lynxus]

Some very heavy downpours over wales currently. Cant see much in the way of sferics though.

[fromey]

good afternoon,

its black to my ssw and just looked on sat24.com and there seems somthing is begining to brew up.

fromey

[andy_leics22]

Ahhhh, thanks Steve and Snow Joke =) Thats good news then!

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like quite a lot of rain to come for Sheffield area over the next 3 hours+. Loads of showers packing in from the West heading towards you. I can't see much in the way of thunder today for England, it's 3pm and no thunderstorms have kicked off yet. There is only about another 3 hours before storm activity will start to die down so time is running out for something to happen!

Looks as though some strong lapse rates to which will also aid in a forcing mechanism in formation of thunderstorms despite weak diurnal heating.

Edited June 13, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[MikeUpjohn]

Thunder heard to the South, from Macclesfield at 1502z, possibly from the cell over Stoke-on-Trent.

[r6 steve]

looks like it could be a long wait for us in the south of england : (