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General Storm Discussion Thread

dogs32

By dogs32
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

With a bit of help from a NW radar image, the risk is as follows....

I'd make that blue area more of a long band across to the East, ajp. But GFS will wobble around for a couple of days yet shunting it about!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I'd make that blue area more of a long band across to the East, ajp. But GFS will wobble around for a couple of days yet shunting it about!

nope...it's where it wants to be, over my roof.....*sigh*...lol

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

With a bit of help from a NW radar image, the risk is as follows....

Red Area: Strong to severe thunderstorms, with large rotation, huge hail, wedge F5's, cats & dogs & kitchen sinks.

Blue Area: Thunderstorms, old chap??.....You must be joking!! (I'm in the blue area, of course)

post-4149-12773865285799_thumb.png

That map is wrong!

That blue area doesnt cover Gloucestershire.

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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

With a bit of help from a NW radar image, the risk is as follows....

Red Area: Strong to severe thunderstorms, with large rotation, huge hail, wedge F5's, cats & dogs & kitchen sinks.

Blue Area: Thunderstorms, old chap??.....You must be joking!! (I'm in the blue area, of course)

post-4149-12773865285799_thumb.png

I've just added an extra area to that map if thats ok! :clap:

post-7593-12773894681781_thumb.png

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

I'm going on holiday to N. Yorkshire on Saturday - any indications as to whether the natural inclination of my home area (S. Norfolk) to storms will extend that far north on Sunday?

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

I'm going on holiday to N. Yorkshire on Saturday - any indications as to whether the natural inclination of my home area (S. Norfolk) to storms will extend that far north on Sunday?

Much too early to pin down at this time. That sort of thing will be down to indications late Saturday afternoon and some radar watching during Sunday around late morning onwards - for those that won't be watching footy or F1!!!

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CarlLH44 Newbie

CarlLH44

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales
Posted

In all seriousness...if anyone has a genuinely plausible theory for the reason that there is now this Eastern bias with regard to where storms occur...and also why it is that Spanish Plume storms nowadays always seem to go North East across the Channel and hammer the Low Countries in contrast with days gone by when large parts of the UK would be treated to really good night storms (they did happen, I can remember them well) then I would be most interested to hear it.

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Much too early to pin down at this time. That sort of thing will be down to indications late Saturday afternoon and some radar watching during Sunday around late morning onwards - for those that won't be watching footy or F1!!!

Cheers Coast. I hope our ar radio can pick up Five Live Sport Extra so that I can hear the qualifying coverage on our drive up.

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Crimson_Sprite Rookie

Crimson_Sprite

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Supernova hot summers with mega lightning storms, and SNOWMAGGEDON WINTERS!
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL
Posted

With a bit of help from a NW radar image, the risk is as follows....

Red Area: Strong to severe thunderstorms, with large rotation, huge hail, wedge F5's, cats & dogs & kitchen sinks.

Blue Area: Thunderstorms, old chap??.....You must be joking!! (I'm in the blue area, of course)

post-4149-12773865285799_thumb.png

rofl.gif HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! That map is like the snow risk area during winter for me, but just narrow the blue region to the city limits of Nottingham. This morning we had 1700 cape potential for sunday with -5 lift, and now is down to 600 cape -2 lift. At this rate is will just be a passing cold shower on Sunday.

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Guest FireStorm

Guest FireStorm

Posted
Posted

I'd hazard a guess the way things have been the past few "storm events", and with the way it looks at the moment. The areas of Peterborough up to Kings Lynn and Skeggy are favoured for more storms like last time.

As much as I love storms, Good luck & enjoy :unknw: (whoever does get storms anyways....)

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z really keeps the thundery potential to around the Wash area now. Cape etc downgrading too. Not at all surprised.

Edited by Blizzards
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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

My current feeling on thunder probability distribution:

post-7-12773973934579_thumb.jpg

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

according to netweather I am at 45% chance for a Storm around Bishops Cleave

6% Sunday laugh.gif

the drought continues

I have the same too... but I'm not banking my hopes up.I'm sure it will be downgraded by those GFS people lol... what I can't work out if the GFS are in the USA how can they forecast our weather lol

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
  • Author
Posted (edited)

I have the same too... but I'm not banking my hopes up.I'm sure it will be downgraded by those GFS people lol... what I can't work out if the GFS are in the USA how can they forecast our weather lol

lol.....Its computers Jane and bouys and weather balloons...fed into Area 51..lol.

..no computers

have faith our time will arrive..2012 :unknw:

Edited by dogs32
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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

My current feeling on thunder probability distribution:

post-7-12773973934579_thumb.jpg

Put a little red over our house LOL , my name always gets mentioned when a storm hits the south east :yahoo:

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

lol.....Its computers Jane and bouys and weather balloons...fed into Area 51..lol.

..no computers

have faith our time will arrive..2012 laugh.gif

Oooops didn't realise they are computers lol laugh.gif

Looking forward to 2012 lol biggrin.gif

I bet Area 51 is knicking all the storms lol

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted (edited)

sad.gif I have 0% storm risk for the next 5 days!

I guess the storms just dont like me! cray.gif

but the big 3 0 © for sunday! drinks.gif

Edited by Mesodiscussion
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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

According to these charts, this Saturday should be good and it looks good for storms end of next week! Not sure if it's the GFS forecasting it on this one lol

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cape_frame.htm

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sbiggs Newbie

sbiggs

Posted
  • Location: St Ives, Cambs
  • Location: St Ives, Cambs
Posted (edited)

*whispers* 80% whistling.gif

About time, been a long time since I've seen anything decent round here. Forecats now show the heat will remain for at least the next 10 days with another storm potential next weekend too!

Edited by sbiggs
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

GFS storm hype strikes again.....lets rewind 24 hours, on yesterdays GFS12Z we had 1659j/kg CAPE with a LI of -6C as of 1900hrs sunday.....Now we have 38, I repeat 38j/kg CAPE with an LI of +1C.....hmm....who designed the supercomputer that computes the GFS model?....Amstrad?...lol

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

12z ECM and UKMO along with MetO forecasts very reluctant to break out precipitation on Sunday let alone Saturday across England and Wales ... though still think there maybe an isolated storm over E or NE England Sunday PM. Best chance seems to be across Eire and western Scotland with less inhibition and more forcing close to low pressure to the NW.

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