General Storm Discussion Thread

[anvilhead]

Hey all.

GFS 12Z looks a bit better on meteociel (to my eye)- cape of 800kj by 14:00 (to the east of the cotswolds), and 1300kj by 17:00 (Near Norwhich way). Jet support is good, and there looks to be a convergence of surface winds across the spine of the country, moving slowly east as the trough approaches. Lift in the area of cape bullseyes for both periods at 700mb - The model does show precip breaking out, only getting its act together as it gets to the NE coast, but to me all our storm situations have one or two twists or turns before the event, so I'm personaly not ruling out strong storms and a bit of chasing sunday

sam

[loopydreamer]

well....as much as i love storms i can wait a little longer as im loving all this hot weather! the hotter the better for me and we are just barbequeing almost every evening! fantastic! although we really are needing the rainfall atm as reservoirs are too low in certain areas!

[Guest FireStorm]

well....as much as i love storms i can wait a little longer as im loving all this hot weather! the hotter the better for me and we are just barbequeing almost every evening! fantastic! although we really are needing the rainfall atm as reservoirs are too low in certain areas!

Which areas? I'm guessing you mean for further north in England as Southern water states;

....Its four above-ground reservoirs are close to full with levels higher than this time last year. The latest figures show Powdermill is 100 per cent, Bewl 86 per cent, Weir Wood 88 per cent and Darwell 92 per cent.

http://www.yourmedway.co.uk/kent-news/Summer-hosepipe-ban-ruled-out-newsinkent37128.aspx?news=local

[dogs32]

this risk for here as fizzled out...just looking at dry hot weather..

no foreseeable storms in prospect

carol not- mentioning any humdingers or couplets

Edited June 25, 2010 by dogs32

[ANYWEATHER]

this risk for here as fizzled out...just looking at dry hot weather..

no foreseeable storms in prospect

carol not- mentioning any humdingers or couplets

Ahh, good news than Pat, if she did not mention all that gobbly gook than we have at least some chance of storms!! :o :o

[Coast]

Don't be downhearted - just like investments, thunderstorm potential can go up as well as down!!!! I'd wait and see what the weekend brings. This guessing, days beforehand can be misleading and we're getting fraught before it's even upon us!!!

In any event, you have footy, F1, Tennis and Cricket to contend with and I want to see all members from here stoking up a smashing barbie and necking a cold one Sunday lunchtime. :o

[Thundery wintry showers]

That map that I posted looks very wrong now- not much chance at all across eastern England while, in contrast, much of Scotland and Northern Ireland are probably in the 20-40% chance bracket rather than 0-20% as given.

[Coast]

Where's Stuart?? I thought he'd be delighted with the change in possibilities!!!!! B)

Like many down here in the South, I'm missing the plume events that can bring us a little something. Not even got much happening on the French North coast recently

[ZONE 51]

from the weather online ..an extract from the sunday forecast . looks like a storm floating around somewere in england and wales ...

(England and Wales it's looking mainly dry and sunny though the odd rogue thunderstorm could pop up somewhere.)weather online

no but seriously this is how hard its going to be to pin any storm, the models are changing so frequently:unsure:

[Costa Del Fal]

Would actually say here is quite favoured if any storms develop tomorrow. It does seem the risk has moved from North and West Wales more to East Wales, The West Midlands and Northwards.

[Neilsouth]

It went really dark today i thought it was going to pour it down , i guess the humidity was high

[Stuart]

well i nerver seen the 6z run i was out but still hope it upgread

edit 12z run move the liffted index more to the north soo still a hope

Edited June 25, 2010 by Stuart

[Costa Del Fal]

Thunderstorms look highly unlikely, given that there is no real cold pool aloft. However, I wouldn't rule out heavy showers being accompanied by some electrical activity and some rumbles of thunder, as temperatures peak out into the mid-upper 20s and more moisture becomes available. Mid-level lapse rates looks to be the only limiting factor for tomorrow across Wales, west Midlands and northern England. NAE progging rather light precip over these regions, so it may be a case of scattered light showers and isolated heavier ones.

Still the risk of thunderstorms across north-east Midlands and eastern England on Sunday - GFS continues to prog precipitation breaking out over these areas. CINH values quite high across parts of the country, but would expect any "cap" to be overridden as heat and moisture really build throughout the day here - low-level convergence providing the necessary forcing for storms to develop late on Sunday.

Yes it does look unlikely tomorrow hence i said if they happen. A least here has a better chance than most other areas. I remember 29th June last year. Isolated storms only forecast i think and the one in the country pounded here. ;0

[Costa Del Fal]

Latest NMM suggests more heavier ppn over the West Midlands and NW England tomorrow evening after 6pm.

[Stuart]

well i still got my hopes up hope we see more upgreads in the morning then i be happy

[dogs32]

our local going for nothing but dry weather for the next few days with temps hitting 30 by Sunday...any breakdown will happen for Thursday for us according to the local BBC

Edited June 25, 2010 by dogs32

[Ross B]

A few showers now over western Scotland. It feels very thundery with large raindrops coming from the small showers!

[NUT]

A few showers now over western Scotland. It feels very thundery with large raindrops coming from the small showers!

I wonder if that could be a sign of things to come over the rest of Scotland tomorrow. Spread those beauties just a few miles further east!

Edited June 26, 2010 by NUT

[ZONE 51]

could be thunderstorms across SE england on monday night :yahoo:from upper front

[A.J]

lots of convection here...big cumulus congestus, wouldnt be surprised to see some beefy showers break out in the next hour or two...Lapse rates are still weak, but NW radar overlays are showing a build up of energy available plus some increasing lift over the west midlands..time will tell......and its nearly 30C, damned hot!

[Lynxus]

lots of convection here...big cumulus congestus, wouldnt be surprised to see some beefy showers break out in the next hour or two...Lapse rates are still weak, but NW radar overlays are showing a build up of energy available plus some increasing lift over the west midlands..time will tell......and its nearly 30C, damned hot!

A bit like that round here.

Dont forget,

GFS shows some potential today, but not much.

UKASF have a warning out.

Estofex have a very poor warning, but its still a warning.

So there is some chance. Not much though.

Wouldn't be surprised if it builds then vanishes quickly before a single spot of rain.

[A.J]

Nothing giving way yet, with just the odd shower over northern England. Temperatures really building across the west Midlands - approaching 27C near Birmingham. Satellite showing Cumulus across the country, so perhaps some showers in the next 2-3 hours...

great minds think alike....both posting the same thing at the same time....

[ZONE 51]

bit of fun-this is my map for sunday)tommorow) for highest storm risk( based on data - GFS 06Z ) isolated severe thunderstorm risk

what does anyone think ?

[Alex95]

It looks quite thundery to my south west now. Looking at the radar though I doubt it.

[dogs32]

some nice convection going up around here...

though it keeps towering up and then collapsing