July CET

[damianslaw]

Suspect the finishing number will be 17.3 degrees. Not expecting much in the way of final adjustments unlike in recent months.

So a fairly 'warm' July going off the CET value however a value which masks great differences between north west and south east - it is not a true reflection of conditions nationwide.

Here we have not seen 21 degrees all month - anyone else away from Cumbria not seen 21 degrees all month???. This statistic emphasises the great NW-SE divide that has occured this month lack of abundant sunshine and predominantly westerly airstream has been the reason.

[Gavin P]

Damien, we've had the cloud in the CET area - Going to be the dullest July since 1988 - But thankfully we didn't really get the rain and the cool temps. We've been lucky, really.

Edited July 31, 2010 by Gavin P

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.2C to the 30th (17.23)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was a surprisingly low 15.7C, thanks to a max of just 19.4C. Minimum for today is 14.6C so provided the max today stays below 21.5C we will actually finish on 17.2C!

[Gavin P]

If we were to get a big adjustment down we could still come in below 17! That would be a shame, IMO. This month has earned the right to finish in the 17's!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think we might finish on 17.0C or 17.1C. 1 or 2 nights looked a little too high. But for me, the bigger the downward adjustment, the better for my cet guess!

[AderynCoch]

That would be a shame, IMO. This month has earned the right to finish in the 17's!

It most certainly has NOT! :w00t:

Anyway, I stand a good chance of nailing this one (17.1) in contrast to my recent failures. A slither of silver lining on a very large cloud for this month.

[The PIT]

I'll be happy at 17.2 C but it looks like I'll be out.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looking like this month will finish above 17.0*C, making it the first July for four years that has been above both the 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages. This will make it the first month to be warmer than September 2006. It must be a very rare occurrence for a September to be warmer than any summer month in the following three years. However, when you look at the bigger picture, only one month between 1959 and 1975 exceeded 16.8*C, and even then only marginally so. Strange for a warmer than average July we have not seen much in the way of a really hot spell. There have been frequent warm nights but really hot days have been mostly restricted to the SE.

This compares against most other Julys that have had a CET between 17 and 17.5, most of them have seen a fairly

widespread hot spell at some point (like 2001, 1991, 1975 etc). July 2001 saw pretty widespread hot days in the first and last weeks, and July 1990 (16.9) was consistently warm after the 12th, and saw some pretty widespread hot days at times, and also in July 2005 (16.9), a hot spell occurred widely from about the 9th to 16th.

Compared to the above this July, despite being comfortably warmer than average with a CET in the low 17s, it has passed without any really hot days affecting a large part of the country, so on a large scale it hasn't felt as warm overall as a July like 2001.

[The PIT]

This is one month where CET doesn't tell the whole story.

Here we had only one really warm night 16.1c however night time temps were above normal which fits in with the cloudy picture. The other side day temps the highest were 25C and 24.9C both offset by two days with max temps of 13.5c. After the 10th for us the month was either average or below average bar the rainfall.

Hopefully climaten UK will wake up and we can see the regional variations which should be very interesting.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The emphasis has been on consistent rather than outstanding warmth, especially by night- the CET data shows this up very clearly. It's in contrast to May and June which were often characterised by high temperature variability and high maxima offset by low minima.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Provisionally 17.1 (17.06) it would seem. Some big drops in the mins, like a drop of 2.2C on the 1st.

[The PIT]

Provisionally 17.1 (17.06) it would seem. Some big drops in the mins, like a drop of 2.2C on the 1st.

I'll take that.

[reef]

Provisionally 17.1 (17.06) it would seem. Some big drops in the mins, like a drop of 2.2C on the 1st.

Thats actually the final figure:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2010

Provisonally it was 17.23C, so not a large adjustment this month.

[summer blizzard]

Thats actually the final figure:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2010

Provisonally it was 17.23C, so not a large adjustment this month.

Well that is the confirmed figure, so it was the warmest July since 2006 and warmest month since September 2006. Quite pleased that while i backed 16.5C in the CET thread, it followed my 1984 anologue quite well which suggested 17.2C.

[Evening thunder]

Thats actually the final figure:

http://hadobs.metoff...t/cet_mean_2010

Provisonally it was 17.23C, so not a large adjustment this month.

Just 0.02C lower would have had it rounded to my guess of 17.0

Oh well I'm quite pleased with that guess, especially as I was 0.1C out last month too. Just a shame about those -10 penalty points for being late both times!

Edit: Oops, was actually 0.3C out last month, it was May where I was 0.1C out.

Edited August 1, 2010 by StormMad26

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thats actually the final figure:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2010

Provisonally it was 17.23C, so not a large adjustment this month.

Oops! I presumed they would have had it on the main page as confirmed..

0.7C out this month, not too bad I guess.

[Weather-history]

Well that is the confirmed figure, so it was the warmest July since 2006 and warmest month since September 2006.

It is warmer than September 2006, September 2006 had a CET of 16.8, so it is the warmest CET month since July 2006

[Snowyowl9]

June felt alot warmer than this poor excuse of a month.

[Don]

Pleased with my July guess at being just 0.1C out.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just 0.2C out then, I think I said 17.3C which isn't bad going.

[J10]

I am still waiting for this page to confirm the 17.1c before updating. However the spreadsheet has been prepared, so it will be ready tomorrow, meto permitting.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Milhouse]

Well the proper heat may have deserted us in the second half of the month but to maintain a CET in the low 17s until the end of the month shows how consistently warm its been. Remember last year when the CET was still falling right until the last day ending up on 16.1c.

Edited August 1, 2010 by Milhouse

[AderynCoch]

My previous best was 0.6C out back in January.

[Methuselah]

Only 0.3C too high...

[The PIT]

bah missed by 0.1C I demand a recount.

I see Philip Edens site hasn't update since the first of July. Either on holiday or ill or just given up.

Edited August 2, 2010 by The PIT