July CET

[damianslaw]

Could be some interesting variations across the country at the end of this month. We were following CET pretty closely but cooler air has pushed us back down towards average.

Yes I suspect Scotland, N Ireland and N England CET wise are average even slightly below and the cool nights in the coming days will only pull levels down further. Whereas the SE has been consistently above average - the final CET will disguise a month of great diversity between north and south and particularly NW-Se, proving that you shouldn't make assumptions about a month based on the CET values. No doubt the BBC will say it has been a warm month in england and wales forgetting the fact that not everyone lives in the SE corner of the country.

[reef]

Could be some interesting variations across the country at the end of this month. We were following CET pretty closely but cooler air has pushed us back down towards average.

It has been exceptional here so far and on course to be the second warmest July since my records began in 1982. The mean temperature at present is 18.8C making it 2.1C above the 1971-2000 average.

The mean minimum temperature is also running higher than July 2006 and rainfall is still only 33% of average.

It hasnt been as sunny as July 2006 but its certainly up there with the best.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wondered if that would be the case, because I got my weather records for Cleadon for the first half of July 2010 and recorded similar results, with a mean minimum temperature 0.2C above the July 2006 value so far, and an overall departure from the 1971-2000 average of +2.1C. This would make it the 2nd warmest July on my record going back to 1993.

It was a similar story in August 2009 which averaged nationally was unexceptional but in Cleadon it was the warmest August since 1997.

I think sunshine has merely been close to average in Cleadon, and rainfall is also near average, but down here in Norwich it has certainly been sunnier and drier than average so far.

[The PIT]

And again cold today which will offset one of the recent warmer days. We're now at 16.5c average July average is 16.4C today will bring it below unless the sun comes out. Wasn't long ago we're at 17C plus.

[reef]

And again cold today which will offset one of the recent warmer days. We're now at 16.5c average July average is 16.4C today will bring it below unless the sun comes out. Wasn't long ago we're at 17C plus.

It'll be interesting to see the Metoffice 1km grid chart when its available for this month. I suspect there will be quite a temperature anomoly difference over a small area, not to mention a stark difference in rainfall totals from west to east.

Hadley still on 17.4C to the 21st after yesterday came in at 17.1C.

[Optimus Prime]

It hasnt been as sunny as July 2006 but its certainly up there with the best.

Can't possibly be beating 1983?

[reef]

Can't possibly be beating 1983?

1983 wasnt an exceptional month here, with a mean of 17.9C due to cooler days with cloud from the North Sea, especially in the second week.

1991 (18.0C), 1994 (17.9C), 1995 (18.0C) and 2006 (19.9C) were all the same or warmer.

[The PIT]

After yesterdays cold day we're now at 16.3C. If tonight's a cool one should be another drop for us. Been a funny month for us some warm days but also some very cool/cold days which so far have been enough too offset the warm spells.

Hadley now on 17.3C down 0.1C.

[RichardR]

The CET compared to here just shows how much the lucky SE and East Midlands have taken away the summer from my area and further north/west. My average is running at 15.3C.

[summer blizzard]

After yesterdays cold day we're now at 16.3C. If tonight's a cool one should be another drop for us. Been a funny month for us some warm days but also some very cool/cold days which so far have been enough too offset the warm spells.

Hadley now on 17.3C down 0.1C.

Looking at the models, i would think that 17.1C is what Hadley will finish on before ajustments.

[summer blizzard]

Hadley is at 17.2C to the 23rd. Now that both GFS and ECWMF have reached a consensus, i can not see any more rises in the CET before the end of the month, and would still wager on a drop, though the flow we are going to get looks a cloudy one, while this will limit maxima, it could well keep minima up, so how much of a drop we see is dependant on cloud cover at night because an anticyclonic northerly flow coud yield very low minima.

[summer blizzard]

Hadley is at 17.2C to the 23rd. Now that both GFS and ECWMF have reached a consensus, i can not see any more rises in the CET before the end of the month, and would still wager on a drop, though the flow we are going to get looks a cloudy one, while this will limit maxima, it could well keep minima up, so how much of a drop we see is dependant on cloud cover at night because an anticyclonic northerly flow coud yield very low minima.

Have just had a detailed look at all models. CET is likely to stay stagnant today with a rise to 17.3C likely on tuesday, the last four days of the month all look like they have potential to deliver a drop, definitely at least 0.2C, most likely 0.3C dependant on minima, meaning that the final CET before ajustments is likely to be 17C, though after ajustments we probably won't have beaten the figure from September 2006 of 16.8C.

[The watcher]

If we get 16.7c I will eat my hat....that'd be 2 spot on guesses in consecutive months bringing me back up the leader board again.

[Stu_London]

I think my 16.9 has more legs (maintaining my dominance at the top of the leader board)

[Gavin P]

My 16.7 shouldn't be too far out either. :lol:

[TonyH]

It should not fall below 17c unless those blasted corrections are used again! I look close with my 17.2c (corrections aside!).

[Gavin P]

No movement for todays update;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

But I suspect the 24th will be part of the month end correction.

[summer blizzard]

Have just had a detailed look at all models. CET is likely to stay stagnant today with a rise to 17.3C likely on tuesday, the last four days of the month all look like they have potential to deliver a drop, definitely at least 0.2C, most likely 0.3C dependant on minima, meaning that the final CET before ajustments is likely to be 17C, though after ajustments we probably won't have beaten the figure from September 2006 of 16.8C.

Models have shifted towards a more cylonic northerly flow for the last four days of the month. With this in mind, maxima should be limited and the flow a bit cleaner so i would not rule out a 16.8C finish before ajustments if we don't see a rise on monday or tuesday.

[Stu_London]

I think nights will generally be too mild for a sub 17C (before adjustments) finish. 17.1 would be my guess, which would give me a shout with my 16.9C of a bullseye

[TonyH]

There will be a slight rise to mid week as today is warm and sticky in the midlands. A mean of around 18c likely for next 3 days followed by a slight drop off close 17c to the months end.

[Milhouse]

Another very mild night in the CET zone tonight with mins between 15c and 18c, with much the same for Monday night. With days running out i'm confident that will secure us at least 17c come the end of the month.

[The PIT]

Another very mild night in the CET zone tonight with mins between 15c and 18c, with much the same for Monday night. With days running out i'm confident that will secure us at least 17c come the end of the month.

However on the counter side day temps may also be be held back. Overall I can't see much change in the next few days.

[The watcher]

My 16.7 shouldn't be too far out either.

I said it first.....get your own 16.7

yes though, mild nights have snuffed our chances I believe....I'm expecting it to be between 16.8c and 17.0c

[Gavin P]

I regard being anywhere within about 0.1c to 0.5c of the final result as a successful outcome. Of course its nice to guess it right on the nose, but as long as I'm close to the final number, I'm quite satified with that,

[Methuselah]

A lot of warm nights this week?