Winter 2010/2011

[Methuselah]

I know from experience how difficult it is to predict more than a week ahead. My month-ahead forecasts involve a fair amount of detail for the first week, only moderate detail for the second week, and general pointers for weeks 3 and 4- simply because it becomes a nightmare to work out how the synoptics will "play out", even with bucketloads of GFS data in the N-W Datacentre (both free and in Extra), the newly-expanded UKMO/ECMWF data at Wetterzentrale, and the NOAA's teleconnections data. One irony that often arises is that the more data you have to go on, the more conflicting signals you get!

I think I have had some "hits" with my monthly forecasts over the years, but I also freely admit that there have been some that went wrong after a few days, or ended up partially right but for the wrong reasons- for example the December 2009 forecast didn't go very well. The Met Office's record has been similarly mixed, but unfortunately for the MetO most of its successes were clustered early on (the excellent forecast for Winter 2005/06 for instance) and most of the disasters clustered during 2008-10 and so the earlier successes have largely been forgotten by the public.

I doubt that we will ever be able to forecast accurately more than 2 weeks out, except maybe at a very generalised level- I get the impression that the amount of computing power needed to improve accuracy increases substantially as you get further and further ahead due to the "snowball effect" of minute differences in atmospheric variables throwing the weather patterns off-line.

Thanks for that very honest self-appraisal, Ian...As for my own efforts? Well, I've given it up!

[ZONE 51]

It is extremely complicated, teleconnections ect..its like a big jigsaw puzzle ,and as you build the picture(the lrf) you get an idea of were the next part(day/week) goes, when its created (the picture/lrf) something knocks the picture and jumbles it up.

lrf can be frustrating but exciting!

Edited September 24, 2010 by nimbilus

[Cymro]

Notecably cooler this morning

[Paul]

It's a long way off, and only one update - but this morning's December temperature anomaly map from our cfs system is a doozy!

[Don]

It's a long way off, and only one update - but this morning's December temperature anomaly map from our cfs system is a doozy!

Yes please!!

[Stuart]

it look cold on that chart

[Radiating Dendrite]

Deal please Noel!

[fear sneachta]

It's a long way off, and only one update - but this morning's December temperature anomaly map from our cfs system is a doozy!

That's interesting but it seems to be at odds with this December prediction:

[BucksSnow]

thats second chart isnt bad 2-3 degrees

[Cymro]

thats second chart isnt bad 2-3 degrees

That's the anomaly not the actual tempreature lol

[Marcus_surfer]

Dusting of snow in parts of Norway today... Live cameras... http://www.galahandel.no/kamera4.html

[Don]

That's interesting but it seems to be at odds with this December prediction:

That chart is from last month!

[johncoolj]

That chart is from last month!

where did you get the chart that shows the cold temps in dec cant find that one

[Paul]

That's interesting but it seems to be at odds with this December prediction:

That's from the monthly update, those charts are updated weekly in Netweather Extra which is where the one I posted has come from.

[phil nw.]

It's a long way off, and only one update - but this morning's December temperature anomaly map from our cfs system is a doozy!

Looks like a long draw Easterly on the way there Paul.

[Cymro]

Dusting of snow in parts of Norway today... Live cameras... http://www.galahandel.no/kamera4.html

I'de say more than a dusting there lol a good inch

Looks like a long draw Easterly on the way there Paul.

I was thinking the exact same, typical scenario where there is a beasterly on europe but Britain can't quite tap into the cold a bit like 2006.

[phil nw.]

I was thinking the exact same, typical scenario where there is a beasterly on europe but Britain can't quite tap into the cold a bit like 2006.

I couldn"t reisit this so apologies to members who have seen this many times before but this what we need ,

Now thats a long draw Easterly.A Beast from the East--as TEITS would say.

A true classic-probably some of the Coldest Uppers ever to reach the UK .

[CroatianWeather]

Paul you posted map for December,have you got maps like this for January or February or pressure anomaly maps???Please if you have put it here )))

[MR EXTREMES]

I couldn"t reisit this so apologies to members who have seen this many times before but this what we need ,

Now thats a long draw Easterly.A Beast from the East--as TEITS would say.

A true classic-probably some of the Coldest Uppers ever to reach the UK .

nice scandi block there remember that year yummy winter weather lol.

so come on whats the chances of cold winter this year?

i reckon 60% cold chance

[conor123]

Last winter was severly overhyped/overrated around these parts, in December whilst most places saw snow it always seemed to stay dry here and when precipitation did arrive like in troughs we always ended up in a mild rainy sector, the only time it snowed properly was the 23d and that was only around a centimeter which got washed away next morning.

January & February were on the chilly yes though no nights below -10c which happened 3 times in 2006 and once in 2009, but in terms of snow depth it never passed the amount that fell on 9th February 2007, early March 2006, or February 2009 so snowwise it was nothing special.

[Thundery wintry showers]

You will always get some areas that largely miss out in even the coldest and snowiest winters. Winters 1947 and 1963 were not particularly snowy in north-west Scotland, and according to Philip Eden's book "Weatherwise", Ambleside had only three days of snow cover in January 1963. February 1979 had remarkably little snow over north-west Lancashire considering how snowy it was in many other parts of the country- and similarly, in the easterly outbreak in January 1987, Lancaster only managed 1cm.

For whatever reasons Shropshire seems to have missed out on a lot of snow events recently, I remember Summer of 95 often complaining about how the Shrewsbury area keeps missing out.

[snowlover2009]

people have asked several times. where do you get those winter anomalies charts. i have looked and there is no update. i can only look at the one example posted. that chart is probably colder than last december's predictions.

[skifreak]

A dusting on CairnGorm today:

http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/file.php?2,file=6766

A very light hint of a dusting on the top of Meall a' Bhuiridh on Friday morning too, but melted quickly when the sun came out despite it being just a shade below 0c during the morning.

[phil47uk]

My wife told me that she is expecting a cold winter because she has seen lots of berries on the trees.

Brilliant..

As a professional musician my weather forecasting skills leave much to be desired to say the least, but your post was about the most refreshing thing I have read, or understood for that matter.

Atlantic lows...Jet streams etc etc?? The MET office have all this equipment and still can't manage to get it right.

I live in the wilds of west Dorset and the only person who got it right last year was an 80 year old local yokel farmer we know, who after pointing to a multitude of fauna and decribing the habbits of the animals on the farm in broad Darzet speak, got it spot on long before the weather satellites picked it up. ( Well at least over Dorset anyway ).

I just read your post to my wife who thought your wife was spot on, but then I suppose she would wouldn't she?

She reckons there has been a multitude of berries this year and also said it's not only how many berries there are, but how fast they dissapear from the hedgerows as the wildlife either gobble them up to store fat or hoard them away.

I asked her if it was female logic, which as one might guess, went down like a pork chop at a Jewish wedding.. She was not ammused.

Anyway after last year I think I'll give the MET office and their weather satellites a wide birth and put my money on the ladies.

P.S.. Have you also noticed how the weather people on TV never mention Dorset?

They seem to spend an aweful lot of time talking about rainfall patterns in Burton-On-Trent, the Cheshire gap and the Irish sea. but merely pass us by with a sweep of the hand.

The bloody council tax charges down here are one of the highest in Britain and as all I have is my dustbins emptied. ( No street lights. mains sewerage, gas, or buses ) I think for £2,500 a year I'd at least be entitled to a mention on TV.

Edited September 25, 2010 by phil47uk

[Weather-history]

Last winter was severly overhyped/overrated around these parts, in December whilst most places saw snow it always seemed to stay dry here and when precipitation did arrive like in troughs we always ended up in a mild rainy sector, the only time it snowed properly was the 23d and that was only around a centimeter which got washed away next morning.

.

I think the problem was the winds were not quite NWly enough to produce a good Cheshire Gap effect. Were there any days during last winter where there was a Cheshire Gap effect? It was snowy in this neck of this woods with snow showers streaming off Irish Sea. The heaviest snow of the winter was due to this, the one during early January, very heavy snow showers streamed off the Irish Sea dumping its loads across the the Liverpool-Manchester corridor. The wind was not quite NWly enough to get the Cheshire Gap effect going. Southern Cheshire didn't quite as well as further north did because of this. I remember seeing news reports from Winsford about the salt shortage and seeing a distinct lack of snow on the ground.

It happened again late January when another snow shower streamer developed and we had a good snow cover but that was more localised. It was strange seeing snow cover here and Winter Hill was largely snow free. Once again the winds were not quite NWly enough to produce the Cheshire Gap effect.

Edited September 25, 2010 by Mr_Data