Winter 2010/2011

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yeah the 2 very disappointing days 20th and 22nd Dec, winds were too westerly, giving stockport area 8 inches and here nothing,

need the winds on the perfect angle, and not too northerly, or the showers will drift down wales, 31st Jan was better got around 1 inch from cheshire gap

[Gavin P]

It's a long way off, and only one update - but this morning's December temperature anomaly map from our cfs system is a doozy!

WOW.

[Backtrack]

WOW.

I don't want that chart.

The South East have had the best summer weather out of the UK, and now heading for a colder winter than us? I don't think so.

[SNOW GO]

yeah the 2 very disappointing days 20th and 22nd Dec, winds were too westerly, giving stockport area 8 inches and here nothing,

need the winds on the perfect angle, and not too northerly, or the showers will drift down wales, 31st Jan was better got around 1 inch from cheshire gap

Those two days 20th and 22cnd of December saw here in Crewe not much at all snow wise but go 15-20 miles north where I was visiting relatives in Poynton and Hyde there was snow and thick ice on the ground sometimes living in South Cheshire is sometimes very annoying if you like severe weather conditions because the North of the county can be so different when severe weather hits..

[snowlover2009]

WOW.

just viewed that chart again, and even to the far west of that chart it is below average which is still pretty good.

I don't want that chart.

The South East have had the best summer weather out of the UK, and now heading for a colder winter than us? I don't think so.

it is a rough guide, most of england like us in the north would have similar or even colder temps than south east. it is obviously showing that we could be in for some big scandi high and bitter easterlies, with cold off the continent. when models predict this, it tends to show the south the coldest.

[TEITS]

I don't want that chart.

The South East have had the best summer weather out of the UK, and now heading for a colder winter than us? I don't think so.

This is simply due to the proximity of the continent. The coldest upper temps are always more likely from the E in winter and because of the relative short sea track the airmass doesn't have much chance of warming up. This is why when the models indicate an E,ly, Kent often has the lowest upper temps.

Due to your location your better off with a NNW/NW,ly but this is likely to have much warmer upper temps. During winter an E,ly can bring upper temps below -15C into Kent/E Anglia whereas a NW/NNW,ly the upper temps are between -5 to -10C in your region. The ideal scenario for you is when we have experienced a cold E,ly outbreak and then the Atlantic tries to move in. This can cause a front to stall over your region bringing huge snowfall amounts. This happened sometime in the 1990s.

[Cymro]

This is simply due to the proximity of the continent. The coldest upper temps are always more likely from the E in winter and because of the relative short sea track the airmass doesn't have much chance of warming up. This is why when the models indicate an E,ly, Kent often has the lowest upper temps.

Due to your location your better off with a NNW/NW,ly but this is likely to have much warmer upper temps. During winter an E,ly can bring upper temps below -15C into Kent/E Anglia whereas a NW/NNW,ly the upper temps are between -5 to -10C in your region. The ideal scenario for you is when we have experienced a cold E,ly outbreak and then the Atlantic tries to move in. This can cause a front to stall over your region bringing huge snowfall amounts. This happened sometime in the 1990s.

The South east will always get more of a continental feed yes, but there are downsides too, the never get the substantial snow that Western areas usually get from batteling fronts of the atlantic therefor major snow events tend to be more severe in the Western and Northern sides of the Uk. Frosts are also more frequent in Western Uk compared to the easte because more cloud tends to feed of the North sea than it does the Irish. So wherever you are in the Uk your climate has its ups and downs.

[beng]

The South east will always get more of a continental feed yes, but there are downsides too, the never get the substantial snow that Western areas usually get from batteling fronts of the atlantic therefor major snow events tend to be more severe in the Western and Northern sides of the Uk. Frosts are also more frequent in Western Uk compared to the easte because more cloud tends to feed of the North sea than it does the Irish. So wherever you are in the Uk your climate has its ups and downs.

Perhaps that's true in general, but it's not true that the SE doesn't get snow from atlantic systems coming up against cold air. I can think of several examples off the top of my head - e.g last Jan - where parts of the SE had very large snowfall totals. Feb 12th 1991 - where a low pressure system can down from the NW bringing rain to the North - which turned to heavy snow by the time it crossed into the continental air and snow fields in the SE. Then there is the boxing day blizzard of 1927 which deposited 20 foot drifts in this area - the great blizzard of Jan 1881 - with 10 foot drifts left in Oxford Street in the middle of London. Then there were the snows of 1963 and 1947 and the mid 80s winters - again there were atlantic systems coming into the cold air - but on a southerly jet stream.

And obviously we can get major snow events down here just from a NE or ENE wind with deep colder uppers - creating the Lake Effect Snow from the N Sea (e.g. 1987/91 - deep snowfalls widely across the SE, & Feb 2009, Dec 2009). Two day northerly/N Westerly topplers very rarely deliver much here though since convective snowfall from the North or North West is never as potent down here (with perhaps the exception of East Kent).

[Cymro]

Perhaps that's true in general, but it's not true that the SE doesn't get snow from atlantic systems coming up against cold air. I can think of several examples off the top of my head - e.g last Jan - where parts of the SE had very large snowfall totals. Feb 12th 1991 - where a low pressure system can down from the NW bringing rain to the North - which turned to heavy snow by the time it crossed into the continental air and snow fields in the SE. Then there is the boxing day blizzard of 1927 which deposited 20 foot drifts in this area - the great blizzard of Jan 1881 - with 10 foot drifts left in Oxford Street in the middle of London. Then there were the snows of 1963 and 1947 and the mid 80s winters - again there were atlantic systems coming into the cold air - but on a southerly jet stream.

And obviously we can get major snow events down here just from a NE or ENE wind with deep colder uppers - creating the Lake Effect Snow from the N Sea (e.g. 1987/91 - deep snowfalls widely across the SE, & Feb 2009, Dec 2009). Two day northerly/N Westerly topplers very rarely deliver much here though since convective snowfall from the North or North West is never as potent down here (with perhaps the exception of East Kent).

Yes of course but what I was trying to point out was that in gerneral western areas to better in terms of atlantic systems where as the east does better interms of deep entrenched cold air from the continent so all in all it balances out very well. You can't generally say the East gets more snow than the West or likewise back it naturally depends on the weather patterns, if its from the East the east will fear worse if its from the North anyones game but if its from the north west or polar maritime then its the West that will benefit, generally however in all these events people get affected east to west, as happened in here February 2009 also.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think the problem was the winds were not quite NWly enough to produce a good Cheshire Gap effect. Were there any days during last winter where there was a Cheshire Gap effect? It was snowy in this neck of this woods with snow showers streaming off Irish Sea. The heaviest snow of the winter was due to this, the one during early January, very heavy snow showers streamed off the Irish Sea dumping its loads across the the Liverpool-Manchester corridor. The wind was not quite NWly enough to get the Cheshire Gap effect going. Southern Cheshire didn't quite as well as further north did because of this. I remember seeing news reports from Winsford about the salt shortage and seeing a distinct lack of snow on the ground.

It happened again late January when another snow shower streamer developed and we had a good snow cover but that was more localised. It was strange seeing snow cover here and Winter Hill was largely snow free. Once again the winds were not quite NWly enough to produce the Cheshire Gap effect.

I remember that well, you have no idea how frustrating that was! As you say, the winds weren't quite northwesterly enough to blow the showers this far south and instead, places a mere 15-20 miles north of here got pasted. I remember my other half driving down to here from Stockport and she had what looked like a foot of snow still anchored to the roof of her car.......suffice to say I was a tad jealous! All we mustered was about 2 inches at most.What made it more annoying was the fact I could clearly see the snow shower trains consistently blowing across to the north!

Those two days 20th and 22cnd of December saw here in Crewe not much at all snow wise but go 15-20 miles north where I was visiting relatives in Poynton and Hyde there was snow and thick ice on the ground sometimes living in South Cheshire is sometimes very annoying if you like severe weather conditions because the North of the county can be so different when severe weather hits..

See my post above

Edited September 25, 2010 by CreweCold

[Cymro]

I remember that well, you have no idea how frustrating that was! As you say, the winds weren't quite northwesterly enough to blow the showers this far south and instead, places a mere 15-20 miles north of here got pasted. I remember my other half driving down to here from Stockport and she had what looked like a foot of snow still anchored to the roof of her car.......suffice to say I was a tad jealous! All we mustered was about 2 inches at most.What made it more annoying was the fact I could clearly see the snow shower trains consistently blowing across to the north!

I tell you what's more annoying living on one side of a mountain walking up to a frost whilst looking over to the other side of the mountain and they have a good 2/3 inches of snow blanketing the fields. Happened once or twice here,

[Backtrack]

This is simply due to the proximity of the continent. The coldest upper temps are always more likely from the E in winter and because of the relative short sea track the airmass doesn't have much chance of warming up. This is why when the models indicate an E,ly, Kent often has the lowest upper temps.

Due to your location your better off with a NNW/NW,ly but this is likely to have much warmer upper temps. During winter an E,ly can bring upper temps below -15C into Kent/E Anglia whereas a NW/NNW,ly the upper temps are between -5 to -10C in your region. The ideal scenario for you is when we have experienced a cold E,ly outbreak and then the Atlantic tries to move in. This can cause a front to stall over your region bringing huge snowfall amounts. This happened sometime in the 1990s.

Colder uppers I agree, but that chart was indicating 3c below average. That's cold for that region!

An easterly is normally VERY bad for us, the pennines eat most of the snow leaving bits for Manchester, and nothing when it reaches here. A WNW is the best for us, as we all remember what happened last January in out region (1 foot of level snow).

A dusting on CairnGorm today:

http://www.winterhig...php?2,file=6766

A very light hint of a dusting on the top of Meall a' Bhuiridh on Friday morning too, but melted quickly when the sun came out despite it being just a shade below 0c during the morning.

Maybe it was frost?

Cairngorm's look like they have had a light snowfall however.

Edited September 25, 2010 by Backtrack

[damianslaw]

Those two days 20th and 22cnd of December saw here in Crewe not much at all snow wise but go 15-20 miles north where I was visiting relatives in Poynton and Hyde there was snow and thick ice on the ground sometimes living in South Cheshire is sometimes very annoying if you like severe weather conditions because the North of the county can be so different when severe weather hits..

The 20th/21st Dec brought the heaviest snowfall of the winter to the south Lakes region. We saw nearly 10 inches from some intense convection action off the Irish Sea. Troughs developed on a south westerly wind circulating around the low just to our NE, it was quite an unusual set up, normally a south westerly unless associated with a stalling front moving into continental cold air doesn't normally bring snow. I can't help it was a case of pure luck that we saw as much snow as we did, there were some deep cold uppers and evaporative cooling was extremely active, it was the intensity of the showers which helped lower the temps aided by the cooling. It was a terrific snowy episode just in time for christmas couldn't have been much better..but unusual all the same for these parts considering the synoptics..

[kold weather]

Will be interesting to see how this winter turns out but even if you take a statistical viewpoint we've had 2 cooler then normal winters in a row, to get a 3rd would be decent in the old days, totally unheard of in recent times since the flip in 88...so its probably not all that likely.

La Nina with the flip of the QBO probably argues against another cold winter, you never quite know because it only needs a high to set-up in a good place to give the goods but historically stronger La Nina's tend to not be great...last winter we massivly lucked out in terms of how several major players that would normally argue for a mild winter such as the ENSO state actually helped to set-up a very favourable set-up for cold...sadly I'm not expecting to luck out like that again.

Not really expecting much from this winter to be honest, esp after last winter, it'll be a near impossible act for this winter to follow even if it ended up being colder then I expect...either way the usual fun and games will be had I'm sure!

[bobbydog]

http://en.vedur.is/e...es/vatnajokull/

i realise this is kind of the wrong thread, but i just thought i'd get some opinions on this, as far as i'm aware, volcanic eruptions follow an earthquake swarm then increased tremor measurements. all the surrounding seismic stations are showing increased low frequency tremor- a sign of magma intrusion. i'm aware that it doesnt mean the volcano is about to blow but it is a very large increase in activity so it could be ready to pop! the reason i mentioned it here is because if it does go, it could have a major impact on our coming winter and most likely next years weather as well. definitely one worth watching!

[TEITS]

You can't generally say the East gets more snow than the West or likewise back it naturally depends on the weather patterns, if its from the East the east will fear worse if its from the North anyones game but if its from the north west or polar maritime then its the West that will benefit, generally however in all these events people get affected east to west, as happened in here February 2009 also.

I have a very old weather book (written in the 1950s) and in this book it says snowfall in the UK increases the further N & E you are away from the Atlantic ocean. Now obviously there are exceptions but I feel generally this is correct. For example I believe Aberdeenshire has far greater snowfall than anywhere else.

[Snowstorm1]

Snowstorm’s Winter Weather Forecast 2010- 2011

November

Temperature - 0.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Above Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the first week and last week of the month.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the first week will be 2-5cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a dusting - 2cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 5-10cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a 2 - 5cm.

No snow is expected during the middle part of this month.

December

Temperature - 1.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will occur from around the third week (14^th) onwards.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the third week (14^th-21^st) will be 4-8cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the third week (14^th-21^st) will be a 2cm - 4cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during Christmas week and leading up to New Year (21^st - 31^st) will be 10-15cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the Christmas week will be 8 - 12cm.

As you can tell from mid month onwards am I expect severe weather conditions to take over from the north and the east as the Siberian air will take control off the Uk’s weather. At this moment in time I strongly fancy the chances off another white Christmas Id say around 80% chance currently. The snow fall figures are in general and more would be expected in certain areas which catch the showers and closer to the coast so in some areas by New Year on low ground a foot of snow lying to 45cm will be possible in areas most prone to the snow showers.

January

Temperature - 3.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Below Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will occur from around the first week to the third week.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the first week (1^st - 7^th ) will be 8-12cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the third week (1^st - 7^th ) will be a 3cm - 6cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during second week ( 8^th - 15^th ) will be 10-15cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 12 - 18cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during second week ( 16 ^th - 23^rd ) will be 15-25cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 15 - 25cm.

The final week ( 24^th - 31^st ) I expect the Atlantic to finally break through and bring wet and windy weather and severe flooding across the Uk is possible with the rain and melting of snow.

During the first two weeks the winds will alternate from the North to the East with cold arctic and Siberian air. The third week the Atlantic will come knocking on the door and produce large nationwide snow events until the 23^rd when it finally wins the battle. During this long snowy period from mid December to last week of January I believe the average totals of lying snow in Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland to be 1ft to 3ft of snow and in Wales and the other areas of England 20cm - 2ft.

February

Temperature - 0.5C Above Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Above Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the last week of the month.

　

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 5-10cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a 2 - 5cm.

No snow is expected during the early and middle part of this month as Atlantic will be in control but during the last week a bitterly cold Northerly Arctic air stream will occur and bring back snow and bitterly cold conditions for the last week but on the last day of the month the Atlantic will come back.

March

Temperature - Average. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Below Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the second week and last week of the month.

　

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the second week will be 7-12cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 4 - 8cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 3-5cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be dusting - 3cm

No snow is expected during the first and third week because the Atlantic will keep fighting the cold air. The first week will be mild and wet but the second week there will be a cold Northerly and give good falls of snow then Atlantic back for the third week. During the last week the snow will have its last hurrah and bring bits and bobs around the country.

Thank you for reading my forecast and I hope you enjoyed it. If you like it please leave your comments below but if you don’t like it then give me tips and advice on how to improve my LRF. No nasty snipes please.

Thank you Snowstorm1 J

[TonyH]

With ref post 267 above.

Edited September 26, 2010 by Tonyh

[Cymro]

Snowstorm’s Winter Weather Forecast 2010- 2011

November

Temperature - 0.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Above Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the first week and last week of the month.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the first week will be 2-5cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a dusting - 2cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 5-10cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a 2 - 5cm.

No snow is expected during the middle part of this month.

December

Temperature - 1.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will occur from around the third week (14^th) onwards.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the third week (14^th-21^st) will be 4-8cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the third week (14^th-21^st) will be a 2cm - 4cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during Christmas week and leading up to New Year (21^st - 31^st) will be 10-15cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the Christmas week will be 8 - 12cm.

As you can tell from mid month onwards am I expect severe weather conditions to take over from the north and the east as the Siberian air will take control off the Uk’s weather. At this moment in time I strongly fancy the chances off another white Christmas Id say around 80% chance currently. The snow fall figures are in general and more would be expected in certain areas which catch the showers and closer to the coast so in some areas by New Year on low ground a foot of snow lying to 45cm will be possible in areas most prone to the snow showers.

January

Temperature - 3.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Below Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will occur from around the first week to the third week.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the first week (1^st - 7^th ) will be 8-12cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the third week (1^st - 7^th ) will be a 3cm - 6cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during second week ( 8^th - 15^th ) will be 10-15cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 12 - 18cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during second week ( 16 ^th - 23^rd ) will be 15-25cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 15 - 25cm.

The final week ( 24^th - 31^st ) I expect the Atlantic to finally break through and bring wet and windy weather and severe flooding across the Uk is possible with the rain and melting of snow.

During the first two weeks the winds will alternate from the North to the East with cold arctic and Siberian air. The third week the Atlantic will come knocking on the door and produce large nationwide snow events until the 23^rd when it finally wins the battle. During this long snowy period from mid December to last week of January I believe the average totals of lying snow in Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland to be 1ft to 3ft of snow and in Wales and the other areas of England 20cm - 2ft.

February

Temperature - 0.5C Above Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Above Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the last week of the month.

　

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 5-10cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a 2 - 5cm.

No snow is expected during the early and middle part of this month as Atlantic will be in control but during the last week a bitterly cold Northerly Arctic air stream will occur and bring back snow and bitterly cold conditions for the last week but on the last day of the month the Atlantic will come back.

March

Temperature - Average. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Below Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the second week and last week of the month.

　

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the second week will be 7-12cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 4 - 8cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 3-5cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be dusting - 3cm

No snow is expected during the first and third week because the Atlantic will keep fighting the cold air. The first week will be mild and wet but the second week there will be a cold Northerly and give good falls of snow then Atlantic back for the third week. During the last week the snow will have its last hurrah and bring bits and bobs around the country.

Thank you for reading my forecast and I hope you enjoyed it. If you like it please leave your comments below but if you don’t like it then give me tips and advice on how to improve my LRF. No nasty snipes please.

Thank you Snowstorm1 J

Impossible to make such a general remark at this time. funny reading though .

[richardc1983]

Snowstorm’s Winter Weather Forecast 2010- 2011

Thank you for reading my forecast and I hope you enjoyed it. If you like it please leave your comments below but if you don’t like it then give me tips and advice on how to improve my LRF. No nasty snipes please.

Thank you Snowstorm1 J

Excellent post and forecast snowstorm, fingers toes, legs and arms all crossed that you are right! Some fantastic weather possibilities there!

[damianslaw]

With ref post 267 above.

As the map shows average snowfall levels increase the further east and north you travel from SW England but the single biggest factor is altitude. The map is like a relief map of the country, the same occurs with average rainfall totals. Average snowfall levels increase sharply over the western highlands and also the Lake District. It is our mountainous areas of the north i.e. Lake District, Highlands, Pennines and Cairngorms which see the most frequent and heaviest of our snowfalls in a normal year. Exceptions do occur in winters with high frequency of easterlies, in such years Eastern Pennines tend to be the snowiest part of the country and low level parts in east england and east anglia can recieve more than the Highlands, 1962/63 being a case in point.

In winters with lots of northerlies, the Cairngorms and lower parts of NE Scotland as well as eastern coastal parts see the most frequent snowfalls.

Last winter was quite unusual in how much of the country saw similiar amounts and duration of snowcover - exceptions being parts of west/north/east midlands and east yorkshire/ which somehow escaped much of the heavy snow.

[johncoolj]

Excellent post and forecast snowstorm, fingers toes, legs and arms all crossed that you are right! Some fantastic weather possibilities there!

Snowstorm did u do a forcast last winter 2009 if so how did it go

[Snowstorm1]

Snowstorm did u do a forcast last winter 2009 if so how did it go

Yes I did one for a few of the months last winter and it went well in my humble opinion gives a minuite and ill find the thread mate http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57223-my-first-amateur-attempt-at-a-winter-forcast/ there you go

Edited September 26, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[BARRY]

Well it would be good if, We had more than the mm of snow that we had last winter, We always seem to miss it, Unless it's from a SE direction

Edited September 26, 2010 by BARRY

[Cheese Rice]

Tbh I don't know how you could be bothered writing all that considering you made it up. Hopefully it plays out like you predict but it looks like more of a dream winter forecast rather than an actual winter forecast.  

Edited September 26, 2010 by 10123