Winter 2010/2011

[pyrotech]

Ok after last years forecast of an 80s style winter here we go again

The main change from last year is La nina, however other major factors are still in place.

So it will be an almost identical run to last winter, unusual for some as global warming should mean less off this( lets not get into that can of worms here)

So rainfall in its plentyful quantity again as we head into winter,Some Snow before christmas with a brief cold spell, An 80s style mix of cold then as we move into 2011 but with snowfall making the news.

Signifigant cold spell with travel disruption and undercutting lows effecting the South, away from the very far coastal areas.

A Blocking high over North East Europe will help this situation occur along with Sudden Stratosphere warming amplified by a low solar influence. The Al nina will probably peak around December and during this period a cold spell will be likely over North East USA.

An brief AO and -NAO will allow deep cold air to plunge over northern Europe.

So think 80s and a true mix of winter.

And ok last winter was refered as cold as 70s not 80s but remember when i made my forecast Met O went for a mild winter. So i think my 80s style was close enough.

Edited October 1, 2010 by pyrotech

[NorthernRab]

Out of interest, can we have regional (and national in the case of Scotland / Ireland {north and republic} / Wales) threads again this year? It was great having all the sweaty socks in one thread, meant we could really get down to detail with discussions and forecasts. It was great how organised it was, if you were looking for a particular snow event it was simply a case of looking into the correct region - hope this format returns this year

manchester.....anyone know where that ranks on the list of snowiest british cities.........i would imagine somwhere in the middle

I couldn't tell you, but I'd imagine it would be around the middle of any English list, a little bit further down for UK as a whole - Manchester is quite a fair size to say the least, so it will have a significant warming effect in the centre, with the outskirts seeing more in the way of persistent, long lasting snow.

[greybing]

why are we so obsessed with winter....why,what is it,how did it begin,when.........is it partly because we naturally get so little truly cold weather,....that we don't have to live with the difficulties .living in our warm cages,juist maybe shovel some snow,now and again.....god knows i love winter or more to the point stereotypical winter weather but for me living in britain this can be bad......i mean i watch the weather like a hawk in wintertime...waiting for that fruitfull forcast ,only to dis-appointed tim and time aagain....i am highly neurotic about it....then on occasions i get my fix biut i'm never fulfilled...even last winter could have been much colder for me....................er.....sorry for that outburst

Edited October 1, 2010 by greybing

[katzndogz]

Looking forward to winter now, can we have a dedicated forecasting model thread for snow hunting in the main winter section?

That way we can leave the sane/sensible people alone, and we SnowBuffs can start building our hopes up for no reason.

Don't worry that's not a serious suggestion.

[NorthernRab]

why are we so obsessed with winter....why,what is it,how did it begin,when.........is it partly because we naturally get so little truly cold weather,....that we don't have to live with the difficulties .living in our warm cages,juist maybe shovel some snow,now and again.....god knows i love winter or more to the point stereotypical winter weather but for me living in britain this can be bad......i mean i watch the weather like a hawk in wintertime...waiting for that fruitfull forcast ,only to dis-appointed tim and time aagain....i am highly neurotic about it....then on occasions i get my fix biut i'm never fulfilled...even last winter could have been much colder for me....................er.....sorry for that outburst

I blame Charles Dickens and his take on Christmas. Genuinely.

[greybing]

Out of interest, can we have regional (and national in the case of Scotland / Ireland {north and republic} / Wales) threads again this year? It was great having all the sweaty socks in one thread, meant we could really get down to detail with discussions and forecasts. It was great how organised it was, if you were looking for a particular snow event it was simply a case of looking into the correct region - hope this format returns this year :o

I couldn't tell you, but I'd imagine it would be around the middle of any English list, a little bit further down for UK as a whole - Manchester is quite a fair size to say the least, so it will have a significant warming effect in the centre, with the outskirts seeing more in the way of persistent, long lasting snow.

yes...city centre manchester does suffer from the warmth of being a large city...but greater manchester is hugely varied in snowfall and temperature as a fair bit of greater manchester is high up ,being on the edge of the pennines..........the pennines also have the affect of blocking snow ascociated. with northerly,north east and easterly air fows as manchester is surrounded in these 3 directions by the pennines..

[Thundery wintry showers]

Ringway (Manchester Airport) at 68 metres above sea level had an average of 9 days per year with >50% snow cover at 0900 GMT over the period 1961-90. This is about the same as at Lancaster and is probably below the average for an English city. However, in the higher-up areas of the conurbation it will be a very different story, e.g. Oldham has roughly twice the frequency of Manchester Airport.

The list of cities in the UK is available here:

http://www.ukcities.co.uk/

I think Plymouth is almost certainly the least snowy city in the UK. Other cities that get rather less snow than Manchester include Southampton, Exeter, London, and Liverpool.

[thevalley]

Height makes a massive difference when conditions are marginal . Relatives who live near the Yorkshire Moors often remark to me that London has it easy during the winter and of course it does but out in the sticks and especially on the Downs we can have at least 15 extra days of snow cover and frosty I would say 30 days. Winter so hard to predict but maybe we are into a run of cold winters :o

[greybing]

god ..i hope so,i just can not bear the thought of a dreary ,wet,mild....boring winter..................all those palms people are planting outside,you must of seen them.....well i hope they freeze and die............erm....sorry

[Weather-history]

Ringway (Manchester Airport) at 68 metres above sea level had an average of 9 days per year with >50% snow cover at 0900 GMT over the period 1961-90. This is about the same as at Lancaster and is probably below the average for an English city. However, in the higher-up areas of the conurbation it will be a very different story, e.g. Oldham has roughly twice the frequency of Manchester Airport.

The list of cities in the UK is available here:

http://www.ukcities.co.uk/

I think Plymouth is almost certainly the least snowy city in the UK. Other cities that get rather less snow than Manchester include Southampton, Exeter, London, and Liverpool.

There is another way looking at this. How does Manchester do as regards to the frequency of really big snowfalls ie say over 15cm? I suspect Manchester comes even further down the list.

[Cheese Rice]

'The Met Office don't issue their seasonal forecast to the general public anymore, using them for internal research purposes only, but as I understand it, their forecast also suggests that the probability of a cold winter is higher than normal.'  

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Paul Hudson updated his blog, details about this winter. On Look North (Leeds) Paul Hudson said there is a high probability (not to those words) of a cold winter. 

Edited October 1, 2010 by 10123

[Nights King]

Ringway (Manchester Airport) at 68 metres above sea level had an average of 9 days per year with >50% snow cover at 0900 GMT over the period 1961-90. This is about the same as at Lancaster and is probably below the average for an English city. However, in the higher-up areas of the conurbation it will be a very different story, e.g. Oldham has roughly twice the frequency of Manchester Airport.

The list of cities in the UK is available here:

http://www.ukcities.co.uk/

I think Plymouth is almost certainly the least snowy city in the UK. Other cities that get rather less snow than Manchester include Southampton, Exeter, London, and Liverpool.

I think you may find Wells, somerset will come very close to that with an average of only 0-4 per days snow cover per year sitting on south side of mendip hills.

Edited October 1, 2010 by mullender83

[Don]

'The Met Office don't issue their seasonal forecast to the general public anymore, using them for internal research purposes only, but as I understand it, their forecast also suggests that the probability of a cold winter is higher than normal.'  

That's odd as the Met Office long range charts from September very much indicated a warmer than average Winter across the whole of Europe, unless they've already updated for October to now suggest a higher probability of colder than average conditions!?

[Backtrack]

That's odd as the Met Office long range charts from September very much indicated a warmer than average Winter across the whole of Europe, unless they've already updated for October to now suggest a higher probability of colder than average conditions!?

Don't know how you were interpreting the information there!

The current CFS long range charts suggest a colder than average winter.... See the link posted above.

[Don]

Don't know how you were interpreting the information there!

The current CFS long range charts suggest a colder than average winter.... See the link posted above.

I'm not talking about the CFS charts! I'm talking about the Met Office's own long range probability charts that indicate warmer than average conditions.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html

Edited October 1, 2010 by Don

[Guest]

I'm not talking about the CFS charts! I'm talking about the Met Office's own long range probability charts that indicate warmer than average conditions.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html

BBQ summer anyone? Hmm...

[Wales123098]

With regards to snowfall Cardiff does fairly well, it's in a good location with frontal snow. The new Cardiff metro area especially (the valley borough counties like RCT) I live in the far north of cardiff about 10 miles north of the coast at 200 meters above sea level and I usually get tons every year on many days and height makes a huge difference. Many times in the winter it'l be rain and sleet in urban Cardiff and you go 2 miles up the A470 and suddenly at the village of tongwynlais it would be snowing like crazy. I live above tongwynlais and as you go up the mountain road it gets terrible. Get snowed in often in winter and the access road to where I live is always shut. But yeh that just an example where height makes a huge difference and how it makes things so localised. Merthyr Tydfil and Pontypridd which are commuter towns of cardiff are probably amongst the snowiest large towns in Britain being on the edge of the beacons. They are in the perfect position and elevation to get the beunt of excellent frontal snow storms which really do give the heaviest snow.

[Cymro]

With regards to snowfall Cardiff does fairly well, it's in a good location with frontal snow. The new Cardiff metro area especially (the valley borough counties like RCT) I live in the far north of cardiff about 10 miles north of the coast at 200 meters above sea level and I usually get tons every year on many days and height makes a huge difference. Many times in the winter it'l be rain and sleet in urban Cardiff and you go 2 miles up the A470 and suddenly at the village of tongwynlais it would be snowing like crazy. I live above tongwynlais and as you go up the mountain road it gets terrible. Get snowed in often in winter and the access road to where I live is always shut. But yeh that just an example where height makes a huge difference and how it makes things so localised. Merthyr Tydfil and Pontypridd which are commuter towns of cardiff are probably amongst the snowiest large towns in Britain being on the edge of the beacons. They are in the perfect position and elevation to get the beunt of excellent frontal snow storms which really do give the heaviest snow.

Same situation here in regards to Swansea, Carmarthen, Llanelli, Neath, These areas aren't very snowy but you can go a few miles up the road and your in some of the snowiest locations in the Uk, For example Ammanford, Pontardawe, Aberdeulais, Moriston etc all receive alot more snow compared to the coastal towns.

[Gavin P]

That's odd as the Met Office long range charts from September very much indicated a warmer than average Winter across the whole of Europe, unless they've already updated for October to now suggest a higher probability of colder than average conditions!?

If you read Paul Hudsons words carefully, the Met are NOT calling a cold winter behind the scenes. What they are saying is that the NAO is predicted to be negative because of the striking tripole SST anomaly in the Atlantic back in May;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.5.17.2010.gif

And with a greater chance of a negative NAO comes the increased possibility of a cold winter.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Gavin P

[Guest]

If you read Paul Hudsons words carefully, the Met are NOT calling a cold winter behind the scenes. What they are saying is that the NAO is predicted to be negative because of the striking tripole SST anomaly in the Atlantic back in May;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.5.17.2010.gif

And with a greater chance of a negative NAO comes the increased possibility of a cold winter.

Winter will be what it will be...no amount of forewishing will change what we get

[Gavin P]

Winter will be what it will be...no amount of forewishing will change what we get

Sorry? I'm not sure how this relates to what I posted, which was simply explaining the science behind the Met Office's NAO predictions.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Gavin P

[Iceni]

I couldn't tell you, but I'd imagine it would be around the middle of any English list, a little bit further down for UK as a whole - Manchester is quite a fair size to say the least, so it will have a significant warming effect in the centre, with the outskirts seeing more in the way of persistent, long lasting snow.

These were the days eh? (LS Lowry's vision of winter in Salford 1920s)

[johncoolj]

Has anyone else noticed this

look the worst cold winters in uk notice anyting ?

1916-1917

1932-1933

1946-1947

1962-1963

1978-1979

1994-1995

2010-2011?

16 year gaps between them well i know 2009-10

was a cold one but what if the 2010-11 is the really cold one

this is strange

Cold winters usually come in groups, so it could be cold this winter. Also think of the 16 year cold winter pattern, 2011,1995,1979,1963,1947

WILL 2011 BE ANOTHER 63 OR 47 WINTER

[cyclonic happiness]

Winter will be what it will be...no amount of forewishing will change what we get

Yeah it wil!!! *stamps foot whilst clutching lucky heather and 4 leaved clover*

[Guest]

Sorry? I'm not sure how this relates to what I posted, which was simply explaining the science behind the Met Office's NAO predictions.

It didn't really relate to what you said, I was simply saying that winter will be what it will be. Your post was probably not the best one to quote!

Yeah it wil!!! *stamps foot whilst clutching lucky heather and 4 leaved clover*

I find my lucky underpants help too!!