Winter 2010/2011

[richardc1983]

Tbh I don't know how you could be bothered writing all that considering you made it up. Hopefully it plays out like you predict but it looks like more of a dream winter forecast rather than an actual winter forecast.

How has he made it up?

[Snowstorm1]

Tbh I don't know how you could be bothered writing all that considering you made it up. Hopefully it plays out like you predict but it looks like more of a dream winter forecast rather than an actual winter forecast.

Its an actual winter forecast and I didnt make it all up i used teleconnections and patterns of the season etc and put it all together and produced my forecast , it may seem a dream forecast but many people quizzed me last year about my forecast and they were wrong in general in the end so please dont insult me by saying statement 'made it up' thankyou If i get it wrong this year Ill hold my hands up and freely admit ive got it wrong but so far ive got a very good strike rate

Edited September 26, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[richardc1983]

Its an actual winter forecast and I didnt make it all up i used teleconnections , it may seem a dream forecast but many people quizzed me last year about my forecast and they were wrong in general in the end so please dont insult me by saying statement 'made it up' thankyou

Here here, this forum is full of negative people a lot of the times always quick to put someone down... its not fair.

Wheres your contribution forecast 10123?

[stewfox]

Impossible to make such a general remark at this time. funny reading though .

Why do people copy lenghty texts ?

It was I would call a interesting read not sure what was 'funny' in it.

[Cheese Rice]

About snowfall. I find the SE is an unfavorable place for snow, with only Easterlies providing anything special. The further North and East rule doesn't really work as frontal snow can be hit and miss, winds coming of the north sea has on many occasions turned snow to rain in eastern Northern England. 

Ive always said central Northern England is in prime position for snow, for a number of reasons; 

- Inland and further enough north to be affected by frontal snow. 

- Close enough to the coast to be affected by easterlies, inland enough not to be affected by North sea warming. 

- Most of central N.England on high elevation. 

- Close enough to the coast to be affected by North Westerlies. 

This is going by past experience, we are affected by nearly every wind direction when it comes to snow, with only northerlies been a damp squid. 

Scotland of course is similar but sometimes the mountains cause it's own problems with the disappearance of precipitation in a matter of seconds. 

[snowlover2009]

About snowfall. I find the SE is an unfavorable place for snow, with only Easterlies providing anything special. The further North and East rule doesn't really work as frontal snow can be hit and miss, winds coming of the north sea has on many occasions turned snow to rain in eastern Northern England.

Ive always said central Northern England is in prime position for snow, for a number of reasons;

- Inland and further enough north to be affected by frontal snow.

- Close enough to the coast to be affected by easterlies, inland enough not to be affected by North sea warming.

- Most of central N.England on high elevation.

- Close enough to the coast to be affected by North Westerlies.

This is going by past experience, we are affected by nearly every wind direction when it comes to snow, with only northerlies been a damp squid.

Scotland of course is similar but sometimes the mountains cause it's own problems with the disappearance of precipitation in a matter of seconds.

you make the effort to do a forecast you big know it all then. he obviously took his time to do it. do us all a favour in future and shut up .thanks for the forecast snowstorm. love to see this guy do better because he seems to know what he is talking about haha

Edited September 26, 2010 by snowlover2009

[cooling climate]

Its an actual winter forecast and I didnt make it all up i used teleconnections and patterns of the season etc and put it all together and produced my forecast , it may seem a dream forecast but many people quizzed me last year about my forecast and they were wrong in general in the end so please dont insult me by saying statement 'made it up' thankyou If i get it wrong this year Ill hold my hands up and freely admit ive got it wrong but so far ive got a very good strike rate

If you had posted your reasonings for the said long range forcast then other posters would be less inclined

to think you just plucked out of thin air or made it up as you went along,or a long range wishcast if you like.

Hope this helps.

[snowlover2009]

If you had posted your reasonings for the said long range forcast then other posters would be less inclined

to think you just plucked out of thin air or made it up as you went along,or a long range wishcast if you like.

Hope this helps.

urm can you read? he did state that he took into account the teleconnections. and if this was a dream forecast then why has he forecast february above average and the second half of january to be mild and wet.

Edited September 26, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Nick L]

urm can you read? he did state that he took into account the teleconnections. and if this was a dream forecast then why has he forecast february above average and the second half of january to be mild and wet.

Stop being so aggressive and insulting. CC made a perfectly reasonable comment.

Fair play to Snowstorm for having the guts to stick his neck out, but saying he took into account teleconnections doesn't really mean anything. He might well have done, but it wasn't clearly stated what effect the teleconnections would have on our winter.

Edited September 26, 2010 by Nick L

[Cymro]

you make the effort to do a forecast you big know it all then. he obviously took his time to do it. do us all a favour in future and shut up .thanks for the forecast snowstorm. love to see this guy do better because he seems to know what he is talking about haha

Now come on theres no need for arguments on this page. Why can't we all have a sensible debate? We say in Welsh

Rydd pawb a'i farn(Everyone is entitled to an opinion)

Let's just digest these opinions and share some ideas for the future weather there is no need for these personal attacks guys :/

[Cheese Rice]

urm can you read? he did state that he took into account the teleconnections. and if this was a dream forecast then why has he forecast february and the second half of january to be mild and wet.

No, Snowstorm posted the forecast, then I made my comment then he said his forecast was based on... 

@ Snowstorm, I apologies if my comment appeared harsh. But in all fairness you can't forecast snow on an exact date and expect me to take it seriously, if you can predict that far ahead then why can't the Meto/ Net Weather predict 5 days in advance with such accuracy?

Edited September 26, 2010 by 10123

[snowlover2009]

Stop being so aggressive and insulting. CC made a perfectly reasonable comment.

Fair play to Snowstorm for having the guts to stick his neck out, but saying he took into account teleconnections doesn't really mean anything. He might well have done, but it wasn't clearly stated what effect the teleconnections would have on our winter.

oh forget it. if this is insulting then i really have a clue what is

Edited September 26, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Cymro]

for christs sake. pathetic!

if this is insulting and aggressive go see a doctor. because if someone was to say what i just, said to me, i wouldn't be insulted. worse can be said....get over it

hes made a forecast, if it is genuine or a dream forecast, who cares. he didn't ask for you all to react like this.

Come on now everyone why turn such a debate nasty? Its only the weather!. Let's just move on from this and start talking about weather rather than cheap insults.

Do you lot reckon its fools luck having two cold winters and hoping for a third? I've a feeling we might be disappointed but yet all the signs point towards something unusual again :/

[snowlover2009]

Come on now everyone why turn such a debate nasty? Its only the weather!. Let's just move on from this and start talking about weather rather than cheap insults.

Do you lot reckon its fools luck having two cold winters and hoping for a third? I've a feeling we might be disappointed but yet all the signs point towards something unusual again :/

well i have my own opinion, but am i just gonna get slated over it????

3 cold winters means nothing. think of all those mild winters we have had in a row. imo we are in a new territory of weather. so we can expect more cold winters to occur 3 times in a row etc. just because it has only hppened once in the last century like in the 1940s, doesn't mean it cannot happen again. a new territory of weather patterns doesn't mean we will get the usual pattern like form the 80s, 90s or 00s. so anything could happen now, we dont know. e.g in the early 90s we may have been able to predict a run of mild winters, what did occur, however from present i don't think we have any idea after the recent winter and everything else taken into account etc. this is my opinion so none of that crap from above please.

yes you said 'something unusal again'. which makes me think no one will know what happens, as weather patterns are not acting up to what you expect.

Edited September 26, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Cheese Rice]

you make the effort to do a forecast you big know it all then. he obviously took his time to do it.  do us all a favour in future and shut up .thanks for the forecast snowstorm. love to see this guy do better because he seems to know what he is talking about haha

Here you go beautiful, just for you   . Seen as you asked so nicely.

My Forecast

Autumn- After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the month more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas. Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter- Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland/N.Ireland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather. With Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north, and cold south, bringing battle ground scenarios. The cold never leaving the South and East. Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and slightly below average South of Scotland, significantly so the further south and east.

Forecast issued: 28th July 

Edited September 26, 2010 by 10123

[Cymro]

well i have my own opinion, but am i just gonna get slated over it????

3 cold winters means nothing. think of all those mild winters we have had in a row. imo we are in a new territory of weather. so we can expect more cold winters to occur 3 times in a row etc. just because it has only hppened once in the last century like in the 1940s, doesn't mean it cannot happen again. a new territory of weather patterns doesn't mean we will get the usual pattern like form the 80s, 90s or 00s. so anything could happen now, we dont know. e.g in the early 90s we may have been able to predict a run of mild winters, what did occur, however from present i don't think we have any idea after the recent winter and everything else taken into account etc. this is my opinion so none of that crap from above please.

No no everyone has an opinion . It just theres no need to react in a defensive way on eachsides. As adults we should be able to discuss things without reverting to attacking and insults it makes for unpleasent readings and doesn't contribute at all to the wealth of this topic. Enough said anyway, I'm no moderator you're free to do as you please however I'm only trying to cool things down as they seemed to have gone off the rails and are ruining a good discussion.

Oh I know there is no scientific colleration however Im a superticious person and seem to think it impossible seen loads of signs of cold winter also (as in old wives tales) hairy horses, bounty's of berries and fruits etc only time will tell though.

And let's be onest now be the better person with the none of that crap from above it's just provoking a reaction and there's no need for it. Let's just leave the arguing a side and discuss maturely the winter prospects.

[Nick L]

Here you go beautiful, just for you . Seen as you asked so nicely.

My Forecast

Autumn- After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the month more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas. Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter- Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland/N.Ireland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East. Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and slightly below average South of Scotland, significantly so the further south and east.

Forecast issued: 28th July

Well neither of the above forecasts can be any worse than last year's Met Office attempt, surely?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes of course but what I was trying to point out was that in gerneral western areas to better in terms of atlantic systems where as the east does better interms of deep entrenched cold air from the continent so all in all it balances out very well. You can't generally say the East gets more snow than the West or likewise back it naturally depends on the weather patterns, if its from the East the east will fear worse if its from the North anyones game but if its from the north west or polar maritime then its the West that will benefit, generally however in all these events people get affected east to west, as happened in here February 2009 also.

I have a very old weather book (written in the 1950s) and in this book it says snowfall in the UK increases the further N & E you are away from the Atlantic ocean. Now obviously there are exceptions but I feel generally this is correct. For example I believe Aberdeenshire has far greater snowfall than anywhere else.

One major reason why western coastal areas get a lot less snow than eastern coastal areas is because cold incursions from the W or NW tend to be heavily modified by the Atlantic and so are usually very marginal, which typically means sleet or rain on the west coast and snow inland. Cold incursions from N, NE and E, which bring showers mainly to eastern areas, are less modified and therefore, on average, less marginal, meaning you get more instances of snow falling and lying right out to the coast. There are exceptions- you can get arctic maritime air arrive via a W'ly or NW'ly and bring non-marginal snowfalls to western areas, as happened last winter, but they are pretty rare.

17th/18th December and 5th/6th January from last winter were excellent examples- in inland parts of NE England, temperatures hovered near freezing and there were snow showers, while at the coast temperatures rose to 2-3C in clear intervals, but dropped to near freezing during showers (one memorable snow squall early on 18 December at Cleadon actually dragged the temperature below freezing), so it ended up snowy across the entire region.

You also need to bear in mind that while the east is much drier than the west, a significant proportion of the heaviest winter precipitation events in eastern coastal areas, particularly near the east coast, occur when there is a strong influence from the North Sea, and therefore, on average, occur in association with colder temperatures than those in western coastal areas.

The Met Office map suggests that there isn't much of a difference between inland western areas and inland eastern areas, but when comparing the coasts it is clear that the east coast sees a lot more snow.

[snowlover2009]

Here you go beautiful, just for you . Seen as you asked so nicely.

My Forecast

Autumn- After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the month more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas. Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter- Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland/N.Ireland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East. Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and slightly below average South of Scotland, significantly so the further south and east.

Forecast issued: 28th July

nice, but prefer the other one.

Edited September 26, 2010 by snowlover2009

[NorthernRab]

About snowfall. I find the SE is an unfavorable place for snow, with only Easterlies providing anything special. The further North and East rule doesn't really work as frontal snow can be hit and miss, winds coming of the north sea has on many occasions turned snow to rain in eastern Northern England.

Ive always said central Northern England is in prime position for snow, for a number of reasons;

- Inland and further enough north to be affected by frontal snow.

- Close enough to the coast to be affected by easterlies, inland enough not to be affected by North sea warming.

- Most of central N.England on high elevation.

- Close enough to the coast to be affected by North Westerlies.

This is going by past experience, we are affected by nearly every wind direction when it comes to snow, with only northerlies been a damp squid.

Scotland of course is similar but sometimes the mountains cause it's own problems with the disappearance of precipitation in a matter of seconds.

Northerlies can cause some of the fiercest weather in Scotland though

[J10]

I have a very old weather book (written in the 1950s) and in this book it says snowfall in the UK increases the further N & E you are away from the Atlantic ocean. Now obviously there are exceptions but I feel generally this is correct. For example I believe Aberdeenshire has far greater snowfall than anywhere else.

however in the past 10 years, it seems that generally Wales has received far more in the way of snow that much of Southern England. as we have had the precipitation normally from NW that much of Southern England simply hasn't received.

One major reason why western coastal areas get a lot less snow than eastern coastal areas is because cold incursions from the W or NW tend to be heavily modified by the Atlantic and so are usually very marginal, which typically means sleet or rain on the west coast and snow inland. Cold incursions from N, NE and E, which bring showers mainly to eastern areas, are less modified and therefore, on average, less marginal, meaning you get more instances of snow falling and lying right out to the coast. There are exceptions- you can get Arctic maritime air arrive via a W'ly or NW'ly and bring non-marginal snowfalls to western areas, as happened last winter, but they are pretty rare.

To be honest I am not sure I agree with that, for many parts of South West Wales, the main source of snowfall tends to be from NW winds admittedly from a Polar Maritime source, and this has been very prevalent over the past decade in bringing heavy snowfalls, with the "Pembrokeshire Dangler" giving heavy snow to even to coastal towns such as Tenby and Milford Haven in recent years.

It seems clear to me that over the past decade there has been more snowfall over much of Wales than over most of Southern England.

I have attached a file showing the days of snowfall over the UK as opposed to days of snow cover, this tends to back up my point, as it shows a more equal snowfall distribution, so snow falls more equally, but tends to last longer in eastern areas due to your valid point about colder air masses being prevalent at the time.

[Guest]

Snowstorm’s Winter Weather Forecast 2010- 2011

November

Temperature - 0.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Above Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the first week and last week of the month.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the first week will be 2-5cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a dusting - 2cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 5-10cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a 2 - 5cm.

No snow is expected during the middle part of this month.

December

Temperature - 1.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will occur from around the third week (14^th) onwards.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the third week (14^th-21^st) will be 4-8cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the third week (14^th-21^st) will be a 2cm - 4cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during Christmas week and leading up to New Year (21^st - 31^st) will be 10-15cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the Christmas week will be 8 - 12cm.

As you can tell from mid month onwards am I expect severe weather conditions to take over from the north and the east as the Siberian air will take control off the Uk’s weather. At this moment in time I strongly fancy the chances off another white Christmas Id say around 80% chance currently. The snow fall figures are in general and more would be expected in certain areas which catch the showers and closer to the coast so in some areas by New Year on low ground a foot of snow lying to 45cm will be possible in areas most prone to the snow showers.

January

Temperature - 3.5C Below Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Below Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will occur from around the first week to the third week.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the first week (1^st - 7^th ) will be 8-12cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the third week (1^st - 7^th ) will be a 3cm - 6cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during second week ( 8^th - 15^th ) will be 10-15cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 12 - 18cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during second week ( 16 ^th - 23^rd ) will be 15-25cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 15 - 25cm.

The final week ( 24^th - 31^st ) I expect the Atlantic to finally break through and bring wet and windy weather and severe flooding across the Uk is possible with the rain and melting of snow.

During the first two weeks the winds will alternate from the North to the East with cold arctic and Siberian air. The third week the Atlantic will come knocking on the door and produce large nationwide snow events until the 23^rd when it finally wins the battle. During this long snowy period from mid December to last week of January I believe the average totals of lying snow in Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland to be 1ft to 3ft of snow and in Wales and the other areas of England 20cm - 2ft.

February

Temperature - 0.5C Above Normal. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Above Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the last week of the month.

　

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 5-10cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the first week will be a 2 - 5cm.

No snow is expected during the early and middle part of this month as Atlantic will be in control but during the last week a bitterly cold Northerly Arctic air stream will occur and bring back snow and bitterly cold conditions for the last week but on the last day of the month the Atlantic will come back.

March

Temperature - Average. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Rain - Below Average Rainfall. According the 1961-1990 averages.

Snow- Will generally occur during the second week and last week of the month.

　

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the second week will be 7-12cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be 4 - 8cm.

Falls In Northern England , Northern Ireland and Scotland during the last week will be 3-5cm.

Falls In Wales and the rest of England in the second week will be dusting - 3cm

No snow is expected during the first and third week because the Atlantic will keep fighting the cold air. The first week will be mild and wet but the second week there will be a cold Northerly and give good falls of snow then Atlantic back for the third week. During the last week the snow will have its last hurrah and bring bits and bobs around the country.

Thank you for reading my forecast and I hope you enjoyed it. If you like it please leave your comments below but if you don’t like it then give me tips and advice on how to improve my LRF. No nasty snipes please.

Thank you Snowstorm1 J

Not much about SE England - it does sound like a wish list to me but we will see what we will see.

[Isolated Frost]

Dream winter scenario:

December 19: Easterly from Russia moves inland...

December 20: Finland, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic get hit with up to 150cm in places, with record falls throughout Central Europe.

December 21: Cold bands of air left behind give record low temperatures for them nations aswell! Southern Sweden, Denmark and the Low Countries get smashed by heavy snowfall.

December 22: Severe cold temperatures throughout Mainland Europe, Northern France gets hit aswell, Norway smashed by more record snowfall.

December 23: High pressure moves into Britain, and leaves record low temperatures, -30C in Tulloch Bridge and at Ptarmigan, on CairngormMtn. Cold continues with -50C in some parts of Central Norway, along with record French snowfall.

December 24: High pressure splits across the UK and finally gives our first snow of the season! Heaviest in Central, Northern and Eastern Parts. With Shap getting 2.5m in 12 hours and Leeds getting 1.1m, London gets over half a metre, and the coldest, snowiest winter storm ever is recorded.

December 25: Low pressure moves across to Ireland, and gives most of Ireland, morning snow, as the UK and Ireland wake up to Christmas with a Winter Wonderland.

Oh... and make the rest of the winter as mild as you want!

Not too much too ask, is it?

Oh, and one last thing, when referring to this, please call it 'Beasterly'. Thanks.

Edited September 27, 2010 by Nuâ„¢ Design

[cyclonic happiness]

No no everyone has an opinion . It just theres no need to react in a defensive way on eachsides. As adults we should be able to discuss things without reverting to attacking and insults it makes for unpleasent readings and doesn't contribute at all to the wealth of this topic. Enough said anyway, I'm no moderator you're free to do as you please however I'm only trying to cool things down as they seemed to have gone off the rails and are ruining a good discussion.

Oh I know there is no scientific colleration however Im a superticious person and seem to think it impossible seen loads of signs of cold winter also (as in old wives tales) hairy horses, bounty's of berries and fruits etc only time will tell though.

And let's be onest now be the better person with the none of that crap from above it's just provoking a reaction and there's no need for it. Let's just leave the arguing a side and discuss maturely the winter prospects.

Just wait until the winter proper, when all the "snow hopers" come out!!! there'll be turd slinging a plenty!

I feel sorry for the mods, they cannot leave the thread for more than a couple of minutes or they'll come back to a load of profanities and rubbish lol.

It really does get silly in here in the winter, you'd never believe it was a weather forum sometimes?

[TonyH]

Indeed. September silliness will be Decembers delerium. At least you Nu Design admitted it was just a dream.