Winter 2010/2011

[Ladyofthestorm]

I was just thinking that it felt like last year all over again, with low pressure knocking on the door, but not being let in! Combine that with the quite significant cooling over Eastern Siberia (yes its ben chilly there all summer long),

I still think we are in for a cold un. So far not been impressed by this so called active hurricane season, as I honestly thought the bombardment from the atlantic would have shifted that very stubborn area of high pressure to the east of us.

Until that shifts the weather aint doing anything exciting expect getting cooler and cooler.

[blitzen]

I honestly don't have a clue what this winter will churn out. A few weeks ago, I was carried along in the hysteria of the Gulf Stream weakening thing, shrinking of the thermosphere, the Icelandic volcano, the persistence of a -NAO the southerly tracking jet stream and low solar activity, which one must admit is enough to carry anyone along Now, because of other posters' much more knowledgeable opinions on some of these not having quite as much effect as I originally thought, I am in the wait and see camp! What I will say though is that if this winter does indeed turn out to be colder again, then some POVs of AGW/GW could be more confidently challenged. The positive aspect is that we will not have long to wait for the outcome. (Roll on Spring for the answer!) :winky:

[Guest mycroft]

I honestly don't have a clue what this winter will churn out. A few weeks ago, I was carried along in the hysteria of the Gulf Stream weakening thing, shrinking of the thermosphere, the Icelandic volcano, the persistence of a -NAO the southerly tracking jet stream and low solar activity, which one must admit is enough to carry anyone along Now, because of other posters' much more knowledgeable opinions on some of these not having quite as much effect as I originally thought, I am in the wait and see camp! What I will say though is that if this winter does indeed turn out to be colder again, then some POVs of AGW/GW could be more confidently challenged. The positive aspect is that we will not have long to wait for the outcome. (Roll on Spring for the answer!)

here's a bit of jolly news for cold lovers :winky:

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/201928/Weather-Snowy-night-is-the-coldest-in-30-years

[Cymro]

here's a bit of jolly news for cold lovers

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/201928/Weather-Snowy-night-is-the-coldest-in-30-years

Nice to see all though the EXPRESS like to EXPRESS their opinions a bit to boldly haha. Nice reading though.

[Cheese Rice]

The only credible part-  Met office forecaster Mark Seltzer said: “It was very chilly up there. These are the coldest temperatures recorded at this time of year since the stations opened.â€

[artfularshavin]

Nice to see all though the EXPRESS like to EXPRESS their opinions a bit to boldly haha. Nice reading though.

i will start with NOVEMBER not technically a winter month but hey- it will begin on a quite wet and chilly note with light east to southeasterly winds,occasionally stronger so feeling somewhat RAW at times!.at this stage i expect precipitaction to mainly of plain rain but as time goes on turning increasingly wintery overall!

TEMPERATURES-ranging from 6-10 in the south.more like 8- 11 further north

now the fun begins i feel with the month of DECEMBER! basically what we will see in december is a lot of dry but rather cold weather,due to high pressure being situated to the northwest of the uk. therefore an influence of cold north/northeast winds dominating the month as a whole,freezing cold at nightime most days and not much warmer during the daytime.generally a quiet month but dont be falled because you will certainly feel the chill!!

TEMPERATURES-averaging 2-4 c in the south.in the north 1-3

this is a tricky one JANUARY. i believe that it will follow on from december with the same pattern predominantly dry if very cold! temperatures by day 0-2 c quite frequently and widely down to -8 to -12 at nightime! but as we end the month of january i think the weather becomes more active as fronts start to develop and come across us.this will preduce large amounts of snow particuarly in the south.

TEMPERATURES averaging similar values to december perhaps a lil lower,more like 1-2 c in the south.barely above freezing in the north throughout!

so to conclude all of that this winter will be very cold with exceptionally low temperatures,the coldest part most likely being around mid january time and into february when things will be terribly bad. so on all of that basis i expect this winter to be colder then last year but probably not as snowy! thanks.

[Tim Bland]

I have been biting my tounge for some time but have to say...Weather is a science. You CAN NOT make up a forecast in your head and then defend it by saying "Thats my forecast take it or leave it" If anyone wants to make a "forecast" then I look forward to reading it. Writing things like the above with no scientific explanation is a waste of time. Put it this way - Would you place a bet on a horse race without looking at the odds / the presvious form of the horse / the running conditions etc etc? No? Then why type endless dross about when the snow will fall, how many CM in which area etc! The threads (here and TWO) recently have become like slow (snow) watch.

Rant over.

My Forecast....

Milder than average winter. A few colder outbreaks, first one probably mid to late December

Reasons;

strong La Nina

Active hurricane season

Strong Jet

Flip of the QBO

Possitive NAO

Edited September 27, 2010 by Tim Bland

[artfularshavin]

well you do have a good point there sir. but you shud listen to me lol i wont be far wrong then you will say oh he was good haha! but i also hav some things which may go with my forecast too i.e...

low solar activity

and the fact that the jet stream is well south and apparently weakening all the time.

[suffolkboy_]

I have been biting my tounge for some time but have to say...Weather is a science. You CAN NOT make up a forecast in your head and then defend it by saying "Thats my forecast take it or leave it" If anyone wants to make a "forecast" then I look forward to reading it. Writing things like the above with no scientific explanation is a waste of time. Put it this way - Would you place a bet on a horse race without looking at the odds / the presvious form of the horse / the running conditions etc etc? No? Then why type endless dross about when the snow will fall, how many CM in which area etc! The threads (here and TWO) recently have become like slow (snow) watch.

Rant over.

My Forecast....

Milder than average winter. A few colder outbreaks, first one probably mid to late December

Reasons;

strong La Nina

Active hurricane season

Strong Jet

Flip of the QBO

Possitive NAO

Probably the most sensible forecast within this thread.

Although hopecasts may be a bit of fun, they are an utter waste of time, using the "what I feel" method is just pot luck ofcourse. If I was to say now, "I think that New Years day will be cold, dry and frosty" I probably have a 10% chance of being correct, probably less. If I say, "there will be fog in the London area and temperatures in Manchester will be around 3C at midday", then there is probably a 1 in 500 chance of me being correct....total pot luck. Maybe there should be a "forecast" thread so that people who want to make and read these predictions can do so and leave this thread free from it all for the rest of us and to avoid further arguments.

[Alex95]

I have been biting my tounge for some time but have to say...Weather is a science. You CAN NOT make up a forecast in your head and then defend it by saying "Thats my forecast take it or leave it" If anyone wants to make a "forecast" then I look forward to reading it. Writing things like the above with no scientific explanation is a waste of time. Put it this way - Would you place a bet on a horse race without looking at the odds / the presvious form of the horse / the running conditions etc etc? No? Then why type endless dross about when the snow will fall, how many CM in which area etc! The threads (here and TWO) recently have become like slow (snow) watch.

Rant over.

I fully agree. I think people should be able to say whether they think it will be a mild/cold/wet/dry winter etc, but pinning down details such as snow depths is completely pointless. A 'hopecast' would be more suited to a different thread akin to the "What's Your Ideal Winters Day?" thread.

EDIT: suffolkboy beat me to it!

Anyway, I'm unsure about this winter, but I suspect we will see more northerlies and easterlies than normal during the Late October - December period courtesy of a Greenland high, so we might get one or two cold snaps early on in the winter. As we head towards winter proper (Late December onwards) I think there will be a lot of high pressure at mid-latitudes, and therefore it is probably more likely that we will see some cool, dry spells, but depending on where the high pressure ends up we could end up with a totally different scenario altogether.

I think we will see weather patterns similar to what we saw during January and February 2006 this winter, but with the tendency for a southerly tracking jet I'd be inclined to feel that we have a slightly better chance for snow and cold this time round.

Edited September 27, 2010 by alza

[artfularshavin]

mm very interesting.i do feel that the weather will quiet down an awful lot by sort of mid october time.and the winter will be influenced by high pressure a lot of the time,but as somone just mentioned it all depends where it decides to plant its self for example you dont want it to the the south of the uk,but towards the northwest allowing bitter cold easterly winds to come in!

[Tim Bland]

well you do have a good point there sir. but you shud listen to me lol i wont be far wrong then you will say oh he was good haha! but i also hav some things which may go with my forecast too i.e...

low solar activity

and the fact that the jet stream is well south and apparently weakening all the time.

My point exactly!!! You have written a long forecast and then come back with " the jet stream is well south and apparently weakening all the time" The Jet is right on top of us and is not weakening!!! Can you paste a link to the charts you used to make your forecast? I expect not!!

You also stated in your forecast that the basis for your very cold December is a High pressure to the NW of the UK bringing V cold NE winds!!! A High to the NW would often bring westerly winds maybe NW!

Edited September 27, 2010 by Tim Bland

[artfularshavin]

a high to the west or northwest would actually cut of the atlantic! hense the reasons i am going for a very cold and mainly dry december. lol also as to the jetstream it is peaking right now as we speak but you watch it die in the coming weeks,by november time i suspect that the majority of our weather will either be from a north/northeast or east direction. that is just my opinion.

[snowlover2009]

<br />My point exactly!!! You have written a long forecast and then come back with " the jet stream is well south and apparently weakening all the time" The Jet is right on top of us and is not weakening!!! Can you paste a link to the charts you used to make your forecast? I expect not!!<br /><br />You also stated in your forecast that the basis for your very cold December is a High pressure to the NW of the UK bringing V cold NE winds!!! A High to the NW would often bring westerly winds maybe NW!<br />

I think you are mistaken - a high to the northwest of scotland would not bring north westerly winds, it would bring north to north easterlies.plus if you look many lrfs are predicitng the atlantic to die down a fair bit, with mid to high latitude blocking.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/...st/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Edited September 27, 2010 by shuggee
Please at least try to be courteous

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh deary my! The falling out has officially started.

And it doesn't matter whether your forecasts are made up or based on science, that's not the point of this thread, it's to give your views on what we think MAY happen this winter.

So can we please stop all the backbiting, we are all friends here?

[artfularshavin]

exactly snowlover what is he talking about lol

haha ok cyclonic.may i ask if we had a high to our northwest where wud the winds predominantly come from?

quick post wherever the hign is situated the winds tend to come around the edge of it .

[cyclonic happiness]

exactly snowlover what is he talking about lol

haha ok cyclonic.may i ask if we had a high to our northwest where wud the winds predominantly come from?

quick post wherever the hign is situated the winds tend to come around the edge of it .

If we had a high just to the northwest of scotland, then the winds would be coming from the north or northwest.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I have been biting my tounge for some time but have to say...Weather is a science. You CAN NOT make up a forecast in your head and then defend it by saying "Thats my forecast take it or leave it" If anyone wants to make a "forecast" then I look forward to reading it. Writing things like the above with no scientific explanation is a waste of time. Put it this way - Would you place a bet on a horse race without looking at the odds / the presvious form of the horse / the running conditions etc etc? No? Then why type endless dross about when the snow will fall, how many CM in which area etc! The threads (here and TWO) recently have become like slow (snow) watch.

Rant over.

My Forecast....

Milder than average winter. A few colder outbreaks, first one probably mid to late December

Reasons;

strong La Nina

Active hurricane season

Strong Jet

Flip of the QBO

Possitive NAO

Fair enough you have provided some factors which lead you to call for the winter to be mild, but there are other factors that suggest the opposite. Also, may I suggest that it is not factors taken in isolation that create weather conditions, it is the interaction of these factors and how they manifest themselves that dictate synoptic situations around the world.

A strong hurricane season and a strong jet stream for example are not drivers of a mild winter IMO, they are if anything a consequence of the La Nina that you mention and its interaction with the wider atmospheric system on a global scale. A strong jet stream could lead to a huge amount of snow in the UK if the jet stream is deflected south as it has been quite consistently recently. Moreover, as an aside, the projected strengthening jet over the next two weeks is to be expected as the temperature gradient between cold air forming towards the pole and relatively warm Atlantic SSTs sharpens.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif........... these charts suggest a high pressure anomaly to the west/northwest of the UK during the winter months which would suggest blocking in the mid Atlantic, around Iceland and southern Greenland which *if* occured would translate to an increased liklihood of north and northeasterly winds over the UK.

I agree, it's all speculation at the minute but everyone has the right to post their thoughts whether it be extreme cold, average or mild that they believe will signify the upcoming winter.

[richardc1983]

<br /> Maybe there should be a "forecast" thread so that people who want to make and read these predictions can do so and leave this thread free from it all for the rest of us and to avoid further arguments.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Isnt this the winter thread which is for predictions whether mild or cold or snowy!?

Why would you create another thread? Can you just behave like an adult?

[Alex95]

<br /><br /><br />

Isnt this the winter thread which is for predictions whether mild or cold or snowy!?

Why would you create another thread? Can you just behave like an adult?

I personally don't see the need for another thread, as long as people either admit that their forecast contains a large element of hopecasting, or as long as certain posters don't get all upset when somebody's forecast is completely unscientific as it doesn't really matter. Nowhere in the thread description does it say that forecasts have to be scientific, this thread is largely just for fun and speculation at this stage, so PLEASE DON'T SPOIL IT!

[bobbydog]

MY WINTER FORECAST:

its going to be a bit nippy outside!

[Nick L]

Now over to Ollie Williams for the winter weather forecast, Ollie...

(People who don't watch Family Guy probably won't get this!)

Edited September 27, 2010 by Nick L

[Snowstorm1]

Now over to Ollie Williams for the winter weather forecast, Ollie...

(People who don't watch Family Guy probably won't get this!)

Lmao Post Of the Night :')

[Schnee]

I'm holding out till NW issue their forecast. Even then, it's a game of watching the models, watching that tasty lump of cold at T240 which is still there at T72 only to be randomly replaced at T24 by a raging southerly airflow...

Lmao Post Of the Night :')

Indeed :rofl:

[Ladyofthestorm]

I think what these last few posts have shown is that when forecasting our weather, we come across a huge range of opinions. Every one of us has taken into account as many different influences as we can, to come up with our forecast, the result is a bit like the runs of the GFS! Put it in perspective.. I have a degree in quaternary environmental change and Im still learning the basics of meteorology! lol... maths was never my strong point.

We are human, and if no computer can manage to get it right then Im sure we wont either! Understanding our weather and reading the models is a science, but this science is barely understood for mother nature is far to complex for even the fastest, biggest most capable computer. The weather is full of so many negative feedback mechanisms, and this is exasaberated when we add in the influence of the oceans, albedo, and solar activity. We could literally argue the rest of our lives away. And the end result, none of us will be right or wrong.

And that is the beauty of the weather, its why I find it so addictive. It comes and goes as it pleases, it changes its mind like PMT and believe me there have been times it has altered my mood, especially when it doesnt play ball. Yet I cannot resist looking at every run of the models, not so much praying for snow or antything else... it is like a gambling game, or cat and mouse.. you see a pattern or scenario appear at 360hrs or whatever and then with every run you watch how that scenrio pans out. Just sometimes the models get it right or you spot something different.

No one should mock or be over zealous on the criticism on any forum, for there isnt a single person out there what understands the nooks and crannies of our weather.