Winter 2010/2011

[suffolkboy_]

<br /><br /><br />

Isnt this the winter thread which is for predictions whether mild or cold or snowy!?

Why would you create another thread? Can you just behave like an adult?

Sorry, I didn't realise I was being childish. It was only an idea. I want this forum to be a happy place just like the rest of us do

Afterall, for the vast majority on here (or so it seems), winter is the favourite of the seasons. Either way, nobody knows what this winter will bring, it's sure to be a rollercoaster ride as it is every year; the last minute no events and the surpises, and that is the fun of it all IMO.

By the way, on that subject, are there many members on here each year who don't see snow at all. Whether that be just falling on settling. I can never remember a year without snow in my area. Infact I can't remember a year when we haven't had snow laying on the ground (even if it is gone by lunch time). Maybe I'm just very lucky where I am!?

Edited September 27, 2010 by suffolkboy_

[cheeky_monkey]

The last few pages sum up the reasons i dont tend to post in this section during the run up to winter and winter itself..spring summer and early autumn yes..the rest of autumn and winter forget it.

[ocean]

<br />Sorry, I didn't realise I was being childish. It was only an idea. I want this forum to be a happy place just like the rest of us do <img src='http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br />Afterall, for the vast majority on here (or so it seems), winter is the favourite of the seasons. Either way, nobody knows what this winter will bring, it's sure to be a rollercoaster ride as it is every year; the last minute no events and the surpises, and that is the fun of it all IMO. <br /><br />By the way, on that subject, are there many members on here each year who don't see snow at all. Whether that be just falling on settling. I can never remember a year without snow in my area. Infact I can't remember a year when we haven't had snow laying on the ground (even if it is gone by lunch time). Maybe I'm just very lucky where I am!?<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Here in Jersey Its quite rare for us to get lying snow for any real period of time. We tend to get wet snow which runs from a north east direction down the channel where it tends to warm a little over the sea. Best conditions for us are full blown easterly or south easterly that tends to do the trick with bitterly biting winds blowing straight off the French coast.

[ZONE 51]

quote"it changes its mind like PMT"

Lady of TheStorm ,sounds about right, and it does affect our mood

Edited September 28, 2010 by nimbilus

[blitzen]

I enjoyed reading this article. It helped me to kind of understand the state/function of the AMO. I was curious after reading JB's blog where he was talking about the PDO slowly changing to a negative state peaking around 2020? but the AMO would have to turn cold also. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation It is interesting to see how it does correlate very well with the cold winters Britain has experienced in the past. You can see where it dipped in 1946 and of course 1947 followed. It also corresponds with the colder winters of the 60's/80's. I suppose that the last dip shown is 2008 which again correlates very well with 2009/10 winter.

This link shows the correlation with the PDO:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

Basic stuff for the more knowledgeable here I know but I thought that others may be interested.

Edited September 28, 2010 by Blitzen

[Rollo]

I enjoyed reading this article. It helped me to kind of understand the state/function of the AMO. I was curious after reading JB's blog where he was talking about the PDO slowly changing to a negative state peaking around 2020? but the AMO would have to turn cold also. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation It is interesting to see how it does correlate very well with the cold winters Britain has experienced in the past. You can see where it dipped in 1946 and of course 1947 followed. It also corresponds with the colder winters of the 60's/80's. I suppose that the last dip shown is 2008 which again correlates very well with 2009/10 winter.

This link shows the correlation with the PDO:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

Basic stuff for the more knowledgeable here I know but I thought that others may be interested.

Thanks for the link Blitzen-its a very interesting read.

[Alex95]

By the way, on that subject, are there many members on here each year who don't see snow at all. Whether that be just falling on settling. I can never remember a year without snow in my area. Infact I can't remember a year when we haven't had snow laying on the ground (even if it is gone by lunch time). Maybe I'm just very lucky where I am!?

I'm the same! the worst years I can remember are 2006/07 and 07/08 where the snow depth never exceeded about 2cm in Newcastle. Apart from those 2 years I can't remember the last winter where we didn't get significant snow at some point in the North East. Even in 1998 there was a couple of inches around the 20th January I think! (can't remember when exactly)

Edit: There was a few heavy snow events in 07/08 in the NE, but unfortunately my location usually ended up with wet snow which melted as it hit the ground. The 21st January 2008 saw a rain-snow event, and despite the fact that the snow didn't lie here some cars were driving round with 3-4 inches on top of them. A very frustrating day.

Edited September 28, 2010 by alza

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm the same! the worst years I can remember are 2006/07 and 07/08 where the snow depth never exceeded about 2cm in Newcastle. Apart from those 2 years I can't remember the last winter where we didn't get significant snow at some point in the North East. Even in 1998 there was a couple of inches around the 20th January I think! (can't remember when exactly)

Similarly, since I started taking weather records in Cleadon in 1993 I'm yet to record a season with less than 3cm lying snow on at least one morning, though in 1994/95, 1997/98, 2006/07 and 2007/08 there were no major accumulations of snow there during the winter quarter with the only significant fall(s) occurring during the spring.

I think your recollection from 20th January 1998 is probably right. Cleadon had just a smattering of snow on the ground early on the 20th, but there had been heavy wet snow showers from a northerly outbreak on the 19th, and sleety showers accompanied by a gusty onshore wind overnight 19th/20th, so it's quite likely that the showers fell as snow further inland.

Since 2002 I've moved around the country a bit, but Lancaster is the only place that didn't serve me well, where I saw no more than 2cm at any point. The 2004/05 season is the only one where I saw no occurrences of >50% snow cover at all, due to being in Cleadon when Lancaster had its only significant snowfall (Christmas Day 2004, of all days!) and then being in Lancaster whenever it snowed in Cleadon. At the other extreme, though, I went to Exeter from January-June 2009, and in February and March they had more snow than they'd had in the preceding seven winters put together, so the luck probably balanced out in the end.

The other two places that I've lived in for a significant length of time- Leeds and Norwich- are normally pretty reliable for seeing at least one or two snow events per winter as well. Ultimately, that's what it primarily boils down to- some places are far more dependable for snow than others.

[Guest]

I do recall the winter of 1960/61 when I was working in the Met Office at RAF Manby, near Louth in Lincolnshire. There was a fairly clear December with some fairly sharp frosts - later in the season a cloudy anticyclone developed giving easterlies but I do not recall any snow at all this winter in our location, though I do recall a thunderstorm one morning in February. I had fallen asleep in the bath after a night duty and it woke me up. Overall the temperatures were about average for that time and location.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My "Winter Snow Events" analysis did point to 1960/61 being a notably snowless winter in many parts of the country, and it particularly stood out because on the whole the winters of the 1950s and 1960s were quite snowy.

[AderynCoch]

The 2004/05 season is the only one where I saw no occurrences of >50% snow cover at all, due to being in Cleadon when Lancaster had its only significant snowfall (Christmas Day 2004, of all days!) and then being in Lancaster whenever it snowed in Cleadon.

I had the opposite experience during that season: I was based in Sheffield (uni) and only went home to Liverpool over Christmas, when we actually got a White Christmas. I don't think Liverpool had lying snow at all during the rest of the winter but I was in Sheffield during this time, when I was privileged enough to receive about 15cm of snow on the evening of November 18th 2004 and was also on the right side of the marginal easterly of late February 2005, when it snowed for about a week (so that there was at least a foot on the ground) followed by a slow thaw which took weeks to complete.

Actually I lied - I also went to Liverpool during a weekend in November, when the snow in Sheffield was thawing but the white stuff along the Woodhead Pass in the Pennines was still there in all its pristine glory. It was a real pain though trying to walk from the highest parts of Sheffield down to the city centre with all that ice about!

I was definitely in the right places at the right times that winter. In that respect it rivalled last winter for snowiness.

[summer blizzard]

Similarly, since I started taking weather records in Cleadon in 1993 I'm yet to record a season with less than 3cm lying snow on at least one morning, though in 1994/95, 1997/98, 2006/07 and 2007/08 there were no major accumulations of snow there during the winter quarter with the only significant fall(s) occurring during the spring.

I think your recollection from 20th January 1998 is probably right. Cleadon had just a smattering of snow on the ground early on the 20th, but there had been heavy wet snow showers from a northerly outbreak on the 19th, and sleety showers accompanied by a gusty onshore wind overnight 19th/20th, so it's quite likely that the showers fell as snow further inland.

Since 2002 I've moved around the country a bit, but Lancaster is the only place that didn't serve me well, where I saw no more than 2cm at any point. The 2004/05 season is the only one where I saw no occurrences of >50% snow cover at all, due to being in Cleadon when Lancaster had its only significant snowfall (Christmas Day 2004, of all days!) and then being in Lancaster whenever it snowed in Cleadon. At the other extreme, though, I went to Exeter from January-June 2009, and in February and March they had more snow than they'd had in the preceding seven winters put together, so the luck probably balanced out in the end.

The other two places that I've lived in for a significant length of time- Leeds and Norwich- are normally pretty reliable for seeing at least one or two snow events per winter as well. Ultimately, that's what it primarily boils down to- some places are far more dependable for snow than others.

I must say that Leeds is a surprisingly snowy city, probably the second snowiest city in England behind Norwich, provided there is not a straight northerly we do very well for showers and are sufficiently far south to catch the northern extent of a lot of Channel Lows.

[damianslaw]

Similarly, since I started taking weather records in Cleadon in 1993 I'm yet to record a season with less than 3cm lying snow on at least one morning, though in 1994/95, 1997/98, 2006/07 and 2007/08 there were no major accumulations of snow there during the winter quarter with the only significant fall(s) occurring during the spring.

I think your recollection from 20th January 1998 is probably right. Cleadon had just a smattering of snow on the ground early on the 20th, but there had been heavy wet snow showers from a northerly outbreak on the 19th, and sleety showers accompanied by a gusty onshore wind overnight 19th/20th, so it's quite likely that the showers fell as snow further inland.

Since 2002 I've moved around the country a bit, but Lancaster is the only place that didn't serve me well, where I saw no more than 2cm at any point. The 2004/05 season is the only one where I saw no occurrences of >50% snow cover at all, due to being in Cleadon when Lancaster had its only significant snowfall (Christmas Day 2004, of all days!) and then being in Lancaster whenever it snowed in Cleadon. At the other extreme, though, I went to Exeter from January-June 2009, and in February and March they had more snow than they'd had in the preceding seven winters put together, so the luck probably balanced out in the end.

The other two places that I've lived in for a significant length of time- Leeds and Norwich- are normally pretty reliable for seeing at least one or two snow events per winter as well. Ultimately, that's what it primarily boils down to- some places are far more dependable for snow than others.

Conversely I spent most of my time between 1997 and 2008 in Newcastle apart from 2000/2001 when I was in Stirling, travelling back to Windermere normally only in late dec of all those winters. I seemed to do very well for snowfalls, catching the snows in dec 99 whilst in Newcastle, the heavy snow in late dec 00 here in Windermere, the snows in late dec 01 both in Newcastle and Windermere, the snows at new year 04 here in Cumbria, the white christmas of 2004 here in Windermere, the snows of late dec 05 here also, indeed a fair few christmas/new year periods here have produced cold snowy conditions, the past two years being particularly cold.

I recall jan 1998 very well, the event you talk about delivered some snowfall to Newcastle which increased to about 2 inches further inland, it was one of the rare snowfalls of the whole winter - winter 97/98 scored very poorly for any cold snowy weather nationwide it was worse than 06/07 and 07/08.

My stay in Stirling coincided with a relatively cold and snowy winter by recent standards. My recent long term return to Windermere has coincided with two snowy winters, quite a coincidence given the last time I spent any lengthy stay during the winter here was in Dec 96-early jan 97 which was very cold and in terms of a full winter during the last proper cold snowy winter after last year i.e. 1995/96.

[Alex95]

I must say that Leeds is a surprisingly snowy city, probably the second snowiest city in England behind Norwich, provided there is not a straight northerly we do very well for showers and are sufficiently far south to catch the northern extent of a lot of Channel Lows.

Hmm, I suspect some other cities such as Newcastle, Aberdeen or Inverness would have a chance of being the snowiest city? I think Leeds has the advantage since it can be affected by almost any snow setup, whereas Aberdeen, Newcastle, Norwich etc are able to catch snow from brief northerly topplers, whilst Leeds often misses out. I would say that Leeds is the best city for frontal snow though.

EDIT: Oops, you said England, not UK! So ignore what I said about Aberdeen and Inverness, though I still believe that Tyne and Wear is probably snowier.

Edited September 28, 2010 by alza

[damianslaw]

Hmm, I suspect some other cities such as Newcastle, Aberdeen or Inverness would have a chance of being the snowiest city? I think Leeds has the advantage since it can be affected by almost any snow setup, whereas Aberdeen, Newcastle, Norwich etc are able to catch snow from brief northerly topplers, whilst Leeds often misses out. I would say that Leeds is the best city for frontal snow though.

EDIT: Oops, you said England, not UK! So ignore what I said about Aberdeen and Inverness, though I still believe that Tyne and Wear is probably snowier.

I don't think there is much between Newcastle and Leeds in terms of title of england's most snowiest city. I actually think Durham beats the two. Tyne and Wear does much less well from frontal snow from the west compared to Leeds, however, it does much better from snoowy northerlies and north easterlies. Leeds being further south can catch frontal snow events from the south associated with low pressure whereas Newcastle being further north doesn't often do so well under 'channel low set ups', though these are rare beasts nowadays.

I think england's snowiest settlement is Nenthead in the North Pennines and Alston the snowiest town.

[Guest]

I don't think there is much between Newcastle and Leeds in terms of title of england's most snowiest city. I actually think Durham beats the two. Tyne and Wear does much less well from frontal snow from the west compared to Leeds, however, it does much better from snoowy northerlies and north easterlies. Leeds being further south can catch frontal snow events from the south associated with low pressure whereas Newcastle being further north doesn't often do so well under 'channel low set ups', though these are rare beasts nowadays.

I think england's snowiest settlement is Nenthead in the North Pennines and Alston the snowiest town.

Perhaps Leeds has an advantage over most other northern (and I include Scotland in that term) cities in so much as it is inland and above sea level? Name a Scottish city centre which is 50m above sea level and 50 miles from the coast?

The Scottish cities are legendary for being non-snowy.

[damianslaw]

Perhaps Leeds has an advantage over most other northern (and I include Scotland in that term) cities in so much as it is inland and above sea level? Name a Scottish city centre which is 50m above sea level and 50 miles from the coast?

The Scottish cities are legendary for being non-snowy.

Aberdeen I believe is the country's snowiest city overall. It does very well in polar/arctic maritime airstreams and in north easterly airstreams. It can do very well when low pressure takes a southerly track over scotland.

However, you are right to say most of Scotland's cities are not best placed to receive lots of snow compared to many higher and inland parts of the country. Inverness although near the coast is bounded by large interiors to the north west, south west and south east where cold air collects and is often quite a bit much colder than many other of Scotland's other cities. Places like Stirling though not a city would be much snowier if they were a 100m higher, alas most of the populated area of Scotland is within the central belt - the lowest part of the country.

England conversely has four major cities which are above 100m and far inland i.e. Sheffield, Bradford, Leeds and Birmingham. Many suburban parts of Bradford, Birmingham and Sheffield are above 150m, particularly in Sheffield where western parts climb above 250m. It is not simply because these cities are inland they tend to be snowier it is very much due to the factor of altitude.

[Guest]

Aberdeen I believe is the country's snowiest city overall. It does very well in polar/arctic maritime airstreams and in north easterly airstreams. It can do very well when low pressure takes a southerly track over scotland.

However, you are right to say most of Scotland's cities are not best placed to receive lots of snow compared to many higher and inland parts of the country. Inverness although near the coast is bounded by large interiors to the north west, south west and south east where cold air collects and is often quite a bit much colder than many other of Scotland's other cities. Places like Stirling though not a city would be much snowier if they were a 100m higher, alas most of the populated area of Scotland is within the central belt - the lowest part of the country.

England conversely has four major cities which are above 100m and far inland i.e. Sheffield, Bradford, Leeds and Birmingham. Many suburban parts of Bradford, Birmingham and Sheffield are above 150m, particularly in Sheffield where western parts climb above 250m. It is not simply because these cities are inland they tend to be snowier it is very much due to the factor of altitude.

Aye, that's a good take on it (much better than mine!). I'm not convinced that Aberdeen city itself is that snowy, if the experience of last winter's Scottish thread was anything to go by. But this is one of the reasons why certain areas of Scotland are populated and others are not.

[J10]

I'm the same! the worst years I can remember are 2006/07 and 07/08 where the snow depth never exceeded about 2cm in Newcastle. Apart from those 2 years I can't remember the last winter where we didn't get significant snow at some point in the North East. Even in 1998 there was a couple of inches around the 20th January I think! (can't remember when exactly)

Edit: There was a few heavy snow events in 07/08 in the NE, but unfortunately my location usually ended up with wet snow which melted as it hit the ground. The 21st January 2008 saw a rain-snow event, and despite the fact that the snow didn't lie here some cars were driving round with 3-4 inches on top of them. A very frustrating day.

I can recall 2 winters without any lying snow here, 1999/2000, where I did not recall any falling snow and also 2007-08, where at least we had snow falling on 1 day. Yet both of these winters, I saw heavy snow, the Saturday before Christmas in 1999 with heavy snow in Bath, and in April 2008, Heavy Snow in Reading. 2006-07 was a generally poor winter for snow, but there was one major snow event in February. Altitude though is a huge factor, often it snows here but rains at sea level, including the heaviest snowfall event we had last winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My point exactly!!! You have written a long forecast and then come back with " the jet stream is well south and apparently weakening all the time" The Jet is right on top of us and is not weakening!!! Can you paste a link to the charts you used to make your forecast? I expect not!!

You also stated in your forecast that the basis for your very cold December is a High pressure to the NW of the UK bringing V cold NE winds!!! A High to the NW would often bring westerly winds maybe NW!

Couple of points Tim

A High to the NW would bring N and NE'ly winds NOT WESTERLY - HP clockwise circulation, LP anti-clockwise.

Jetstream over us is further south than the norm.

So maybe his ideas do make some sense?

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Aberdeen I believe is the country's snowiest city overall. It does very well in polar/arctic maritime airstreams and in north easterly airstreams. It can do very well when low pressure takes a southerly track over scotland.

However, you are right to say most of Scotland's cities are not best placed to receive lots of snow compared to many higher and inland parts of the country. Inverness although near the coast is bounded by large interiors to the north west, south west and south east where cold air collects and is often quite a bit much colder than many other of Scotland's other cities. Places like Stirling though not a city would be much snowier if they were a 100m higher, alas most of the populated area of Scotland is within the central belt - the lowest part of the country.

England conversely has four major cities which are above 100m and far inland i.e. Sheffield, Bradford, Leeds and Birmingham. Many suburban parts of Bradford, Birmingham and Sheffield are above 150m, particularly in Sheffield where western parts climb above 250m. It is not simply because these cities are inland they tend to be snowier it is very much due to the factor of altitude.

It certainly gets high on the suburbs of Bradford and Leeds, i live in BD11 (Leeds telephone number though, as close to one as the other) and am at 184 meters above sea level, as the A58 approaches Leeds ring road it does reach around 250 meters. The best direction for snow here is a north easterly/easterly, we get hammered because showers don't die until they hit the pennines just west of here, and while Newcastle gets straight northerlies, we do very well from north westerlies, we also do not get the coastal influence.

[Cheese Rice]

England conversely has four major cities which are above 100m and far inland i.e. Sheffield, Bradford, Leeds and Birmingham. Many suburban parts of Bradford, Birmingham and Sheffield are above 150m, particularly in Sheffield where western parts climb above 250m. It is not simply because these cities are inland they tend to be snowier it is very much due to the factor of altitude.

Yes that is true. However Leeds is perfectly placed to be affected by nearly every type of wind direction, you can't say the same for Scottish cities or even Sheffield. How far north Leeds is plays a surprising factor, where-as on many occasions south Yorkshire has seen rain/sleet while in Leeds center it's snowing. 

[TEITS]

Aye, that's a good take on it (much better than mine!). I'm not convinced that Aberdeen city itself is that snowy, if the experience of last winter's Scottish thread was anything to go by. But this is one of the reasons why certain areas of Scotland are populated and others are not.

Generally speaking Aberdeen does recieve quiet abit of snow. Whilst locations such as mine tend to require the wind from a certain direction to bring snow showers, with Aberdeen they recieve snow showers from a NW/NNW/N/NE/NNE. The same applies to Norwich because this location can recieve snow showers from the wind directions that I mention. However for me I need a NNE/NE/ENE,ly to bring the snow showers from the Wash.

[Weather-history]

Places like Stirling though not a city

Stirling is a city.

As for the Winter of 2010-11, only twice in 120 years have there been consecutive winters that were sub 3C for the CET (1940, 1941 and 1942) and (1985 and 1986). The stats odds alone don't favour another sub 3C winter

Edited September 29, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Tucco]

Yes that is true. However Leeds is perfectly placed to be affected by nearly every type of wind direction, you can't say the same for Scottish cities or even Sheffield. How far north Leeds is plays a surprising factor, where-as on many occasions south Yorkshire has seen rain/sleet while in Leeds center it's snowing. 

Pretty sure we had this conversion a year or so ago. I believe results (rough agreed!) were as following.

Snowiest

England City Durham

England Town Alston

England Village Nenethead.

Scotland City Aberdeen

Scotland Town Aviemore

Scotland Village Tomintoul

Not sure about NI and Wales. I do remember people going on and on about what makes a city

Edited September 29, 2010 by Tucco