Winter 2010/2011

[Glacier Point]

The Atlantic SSTA is starting to look potentially supportive of a -NAO however, there are other drivers to the NAO which are a more indicative of nuetral NAO conditions.

The location of tropical forcing (cloudiness and thunderstorm activity) during the autumn can give an indication of the NAO. During -NAO winters tropical forcing was anomalously strong east of the Dateline in the Pacific.

During +NAO winters we have a nice mirror image, anomalously weak forcing around the Dateline and note also the Souther American and African anomalies>

Now, the Outgoing Longwave Radiation for the autumn so far..

Judge for yourself in these key areas around the equator. I would say neutral or neutral positive from this paramater. The higher latitude element of the NAO (overlapping with the AO) will probably be positive due to this forcing.

[Gavin P]

It didn't really relate to what you said, I was simply saying that winter will be what it will be. Your post was probably not the best one to quote!

Oh right. Thanks for clarifying.

Thanks for the analysis, GP. So the Atlantic itself looks to be set up for a negative NAO with an emerging tripole patterm, but the tropics aren't supportive?

[reef]

Has anyone else noticed this

look the worst cold winters in uk notice anyting ?

1916-1917

1932-1933

1946-1947

1962-1963

1978-1979

1994-1995

2010-2011?

16 year gaps between them well i know 2009-10

was a cold one but what if the 2010-11 is the really cold one

this is strange

Cold winters usually come in groups, so it could be cold this winter. Also think of the 16 year cold winter pattern, 2011,1995,1979,1963,1947

WILL 2011 BE ANOTHER 63 OR 47 WINTER

1932/33 and 1994/94 were not cold winters (1995/96 was). Hale winters are thought to happen every 22/23 years or so but the pattern doesnt exist before 1895, not to mention that 2010/11 wouldnt be one anyway.

[J10]

Same situation here in regards to Swansea, Carmarthen, Llanelli, Neath, These areas aren't very snowy but you can go a few miles up the road and your in some of the snowiest locations in the Uk, For example Ammanford, Pontardawe, Aberdeulais, Moriston etc all receive alot more snow compared to the coastal towns.

A bit confused there. Certainly low lying coastal parts of Swansea can be restricted in terms of snowfall, but many upland parts such as Tycoch, Townhill, Penlan etc being well above 100m get considerably more snow (even than Morriston). As a result there were 21 Met Office Snow Days here last winter, but a handful at sea level.

[Cymro]

A bit confused there. Certainly low lying coastal parts of Swansea can be restricted in terms of snowfall, but many upland parts such as Tycoch, Townhill, Penlan etc being well above 100m get considerably more snow (even than Morriston). As a result there were 21 Met Office Snow Days here last winter, but a handful at sea level.

Yes that's what I'm trying to say, Naturally Tycoch, Townhill, Penlan and places like Bonyrefail, Tonymaen, Felindre, etc. Moriston is more because of it's inlandness rather than altitude. We recorded 30 snow days here the mountains behind my house you could had another 10 days to that with no difficulty. People don't realise how diverse Welsh weather is interms of snow because of the stark differences in alltitude and cold valleys.

[Alex95]

1932/33 and 1994/94 were not cold winters (1995/96 was). Hale winters are thought to happen every 22/23 years or so but the pattern doesnt exist before 1895, not to mention that 2010/11 wouldnt be one anyway.

I've heard the term a few times before, but what exactly is a hale winter? Sorry if its a stupid question.

[J10]

Yes that's what I'm trying to say, Naturally Tycoch, Townhill, Penlan and places like Bonyrefail, Tonymaen, Felindre, etc. Moriston is more because of it's inlandness rather than altitude. We recorded 30 snow days here the mountains behind my house you could had another 10 days to that with no difficulty. People don't realise how diverse Welsh weather is interms of snow because of the stark differences in alltitude and cold valleys.

Indeed, much of South Wales inland can do very well for snow amounts, and it no surprise that you do better than us here. However I'd certainly take 21 snow days this winter (Doubt it though)

[Argyllcraig]

I've heard the term a few times before, but what exactly is a hale winter? Sorry if its a stupid question.

Think its to do with a reduction in solar activity and a resultant decrease in atmospheric radiation, not too sure of the total impact but it quite often results in cooler winters. Sure someone can explain it in better detail.

[Cymro]

Indeed, much of South Wales inland can do very well for snow amounts, and it no surprise that you do better than us here. However I'd certainly take 21 snow days this winter (Doubt it though)

I all dependes on the situations, I recall last year going to swansea around the 20th od December and there being a good inch of frozen solid snow around there was only a frozen dusting up here hwoever when we did have the snow just before christmas then it was enought to make it a patchy white christmas. But sometimes Swansea does better than here especially when it comes to the Pembrokeshire dangler but as for retaining snow for longer I think the altitude favours us here. As for this year only time will tell

Amser a ddengys

[The Northern Ramper]

manchester.....anyone know where that ranks on the list of snowiest british cities.........i would imagine somwhere in the middle

I wouldn't have expected it to be very high.

With the exception of last winter Greater Manchester has been pretty poor for years when it comes to getting its fair share of snow. Living on the western side of the pennines there are many occasions when we should have in theory got alot of snow but somehow anything significant has always managed to avoid us.

I hear 80's style winter mentioned alot regarding last winter and its true that back then we used to get deluge after deluge, or so it felt like, last winter was the only time it has come close to that in years.

I am hoping and my gut feeling is we will get close to a repeat this year.

[cooling climate]

What I find very interesting is the the persistent blocking to the northeast which has been there for

quite some time now. This in my opinion has everything to do with the prolonged weakened solar

activity that we are in. The theory is that prolonged low solar activity weakens the jet stream which

allows eddies to form, which in turn allows blocking highs to form blocking off the normal west to

east airflow, this will also act to steer the jet stream further south. This affect apparently is more

frequent across the north Atlantic and Europe. It is quite plausible to say that this has also aided

a return to a more negative phase of the AO and NAO although this will of course relax from time

to time.

It is now looking almost certain that we will have a dominant La Nina during the winter which

normally means more in the way of mid latitude ridging,low AAM and hopefully a weakened jet.

This should be very good news if a -NAO is to prevail this winter. As GP has mentioned the sst

tripole that is starting to show itself in the north Atlantic should help reinforce a -NAO index.

The tropics on the other hand are not looking as favorable for -NAO however and it will be very

interesting to see which forcing will be the stronger.

In regards to the coming winter I am of a growing opinion that a big winter is in store for northwestern

Russia, and Europe including the UK even though I do not expect to see the AO anywhere near

as negative as last year and the -NAO will likely be more east based leading to more in the way

of continental winter cold.

The models are showing a tendency in the longer outlook period for the AO and NAO index to turn

more negative this I think is due to slight warming in the lower stratosphere during the middle of

September which can be seen in the links below. Again similar to what happened last winter it looks

like a wave breaking into the lower stratosphere caused by a high pressure to the west of the USA

pushing tropical air north.

http://www.cpc.noaa....k/MJO/mjo.shtml

On the 500hpa and 200hpa heights and wind panel click on global 200.

Edited October 2, 2010 by cooling climate

[artfularshavin]

What I find very interesting is the the persistent blocking to the northeast which has been there for

quite some time now. This in my opinion has everything to do with the prolonged weakened solar

activity that we are in. The theory is that prolonged low solar activity weakens the jet stream which

allows eddies to form, which in turn allows blocking highs to form blocking off the normal west to

east airflow, this will also act to steer the jet stream further south. This affect apparently is more

frequent across the north Atlantic and Europe. It is quite plausible to say that this has also aided

a return to a more negative phase of the AO and NAO although this will of course relax from time

to time.

It is now looking almost certain that we will have a dominant La Nina during the winter which

normally means more in the way of mid latitude ridging,low AAM and hopefully a weakened jet.

This should be very good news if a -NAO is to prevail this winter. As GP has mentioned the sst

tripole that is starting to show itself in the north Atlantic should help reinforce a -NAO index.

The tropics on the other hand are not looking as favorable for -NAO however and it will be very

interesting to see which forcing will be the stronger.

In regards to the coming winter I am of a growing opinion that a big winter is in store for northwestern

Russia, and Europe including the UK even though I do not expect to see the AO anywhere near

as negative as last year and the -NAO will likely be more east based leading to more in the way

of continental winter cold.

The models are showing a tendency in the longer outlook period for the AO and NAO index to turn

more negative this I think is due to slight warming in the lower stratosphere during the middle of

September which can be seen in the links below. Again similar to what happened last winter it looks

like a wave breaking into the lower stratosphere caused by a high pressure to the west of the USA

pushing tropical air north.

http://www.cpc.noaa....k/MJO/mjo.shtml

On the 500hpa and 200hpa heights and wind panel click on global 200.

mm very interesting to hear your winter prediction there.so how do you think the temperatures will average this winter over the three months?

[summer blizzard]

Certainly some conflicting signals for the coming winter at the moment. On the one hand we have the La Nina and Atlantic Multivarate Ossilation favouring negative, but the +QBO favouring positive values this winter, very interesting as to what this winter will bring.

[Rollo]

I've heard the term a few times before, but what exactly is a hale winter? Sorry if its a stupid question.

Not too sure myself as to the answer to your question but I think he was a meteorologist who named certain winters he thought would be below average.

[greybing]

I wouldn't have expected it to be very high.

With the exception of last winter Greater Manchester has been pretty poor for years when it comes to getting its fair share of snow. Living on the western side of the pennines there are many occasions when we should have in theory got alot of snow but somehow anything significant has always managed to avoid us.

I hear 80's style winter mentioned alot regarding last winter and its true that back then we used to get deluge after deluge, or so it felt like, last winter was the only time it has come close to that in years.

I am hoping and my gut feeling is we will get close to a repeat this year.

yeah ,i feel much the same as you about manchesters share of snow ,up until last winter where i live in west manchester we had not had a significant[ a fall of snow 15cm or more] for around 10 years

[Dorsetbred]

Think its to do with a reduction in solar activity and a resultant decrease in atmospheric radiation, not too sure of the total impact but it quite often results in cooler winters. Sure someone can explain it in better detail.

I have dug out the following information about the hale winter, where:

There is an approximately 22 to 23 year cycle of severe winters, with the one of 1870/71 falling into this category. This singularity holds good to the present with the subsequent winters of 1894/95, 1916/17, 1939/40, 1962/63 and 1984/85 also very cold. All these winters were preceded (a warning if you like) and followed by some very cold individual months.

The 22 to 23 year weather cycle is in fact dependent on a magnetic effect known as the Hale cycle. This encompasses two sun spot cycles. The Hale cycle starts and ends at points of minimum sun spot activity. Period of high geomagnetic activity, such as there was in the early 1870s, can cause weather extremes. Both 1868 and 1870 produced droughts for example, followed by excessive storms and floods in 1872 when the Trent burst its banks. August and December in 1872 were particularly wet, with six and half inches of rain (three times the average) falling on Bingham in December that year.

Edited October 2, 2010 by Dorsetbred

[Cheese Rice]

yeah ,i feel much the same as you about manchesters share of snow ,up until last winter where i live in west manchester  we   had not had a significant[ a fall of  snow  15cm or more] for around 10 years

Thats pretty poor actually, when I lived in lower ground Leeds (60m) I would expect 10cm+ twice or more every winter, in the last twenty years this has only not happened once (06/07).

[cooling climate]

mm very interesting to hear your winter prediction there.so how do you think the temperatures will average this winter over the three months?

At this stage I would not have a clue, but I do think a winter as cold or colder than 78/79 could be

quite possible or perhaps two or three prolonged very cold wintry spells interspersed with milder

weather.

[egret]

I have dug out the following information about the hale winter, where:

There is an approximately 22 to 23 year cycle of severe winters, with the one of 1870/71 falling into this category. This singularity holds good to the present with the subsequent winters of 1894/95, 1916/17, 1939/40, 1962/63 and 1984/85 also very cold. All these winters were preceded (a warning if you like) and followed by some very cold individual months.

The 22 to 23 year weather cycle is in fact dependent on a magnetic effect known as the Hale cycle. This encompasses two sun spot cycles. The Hale cycle starts and ends at points of minimum sun spot activity. Period of high geomagnetic activity, such as there was in the early 1870s, can cause weather extremes. Both 1868 and 1870 produced droughts for example, followed by excessive storms and floods in 1872 when the Trent burst its banks. August and December in 1872 were particularly wet, with six and half inches of rain (three times the average) falling on Bingham in December that year.

So this would mean that the last very cold winter should have been 2006/7 or 2007/8? But 2008/9 and 2009/10 were colder than the previous two winters. Does this mean that a Hale winter is not due and this year should return to being less cold?

With the current atlantic influence it is difficult to imagine a cold winter but this autumn already feels more like those I remember in the 60's (as have the last two years) and I can well imagine another winter like that of 2008/9 and would not be surprised if it is similar to last year. I can see no reason for the jet stream to edge northwards so a relatively still, cold, November is IMO on the cards and lead on to snow in early/mid December with considerable snow falling N.England and Scotland and parts of the east coast before Xmas.

Sadly for us in coastal parts of the SW it remains pure lottery whether we get heavy snowfall and February will remain our best chance (when the sea has cooled).

I appreciate that this is very subjective and please forgive my lack of detailed study of the various climatic factors that guide the true experts on this thread. I read your postings with huge interest and respect.

[Weather-history]

yeah ,i feel much the same as you about manchesters share of snow ,up until last winter where i live in west manchester we had not had a significant[ a fall of snow 15cm or more] for around 10 years

I live in west Manchester and the last occasion of a 15cm+ snowfall before last winter was 1981-82.

There was an article in Weather magazine in the mid 1980s recording Manchester snowfalls of 15cm+ since 1880. 18 occasions and last winter was the 19th. The snowfalls of 1996 and late December 2000 never breeched the 15cm mark.

[greybing]

I live in west Manchester and the last occasion of a 15cm+ snowfall before last winter was 1981-82.

There was an article in Weather magazine in the mid 1980s recording Manchester snowfalls of 15cm+ since 1880. 18 occasions and last winter was the 19th. The snowfalls of 1996 and late December 2000 never breeched the 15cm mark.

that is pretty depressing,.........................i hate the british climate,obstinately temperate,in colour terms a dull shade of grey..................give me some extremes please,give me a mountains of snow in winter then a desert sun in summer,,i genuinely think the british climate has a profound effect on our psychology,ie it is depressing,i think it contributes to our high suicide rate in europe.The north west pacific with its similar climate has a high suicide rate also..........our wet,often cloudy,monotonous weather is bad for the brain,amogst other things

Edited October 2, 2010 by greybing

[Alex95]

I have to say, one thing I particularly like about NE England is that it is much more capable of getting heavy snowfall than other parts of the UK! 6 inches is certainly a good fall of snow, but not all that uncommon in the North East. It has happened around half a dozen times here since 1990.

EDIT: 1991, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2010, for example, possibly 1994, 1996? Not sure about the last 2.

Edited October 2, 2010 by alza

[Isolated Frost]

that is pretty depressing,.........................i hate the british climate,obstinately temperate,in colour terms a dull shade of grey..................give me some extremes please,give me a mountains of snow in winter then a desert sun in summer,,i genuinely think the british climate has a profound effect on our psychology,ie it is depressing,i think it contributes to our high suicide rate in europe.The north west pacific with its similar climate has a high suicide rate also..........our wet,often cloudy,monotonous weather is bad for the brain,amogst other things

Really? You could always tell us what you think, and what would be your perfect climate!

I have to say, one thing I particularly like about NE England is that it is much more capable of getting heavy snowfall than other parts of the UK! 6 inches is certainly a good fall of snow, but not all that uncommon in the North East. It has happened around half a dozen times here since 1990.

EDIT: 1991, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2010, for example, possibly 1994, 1996? Not sure about the last 2.

I agree; we here in NE England have brilliant amounts of snowfall, when others don't!

[Snowstorm1]

I have to say, one thing I particularly like about NE England is that it is much more capable of getting heavy snowfall than other parts of the UK! 6 inches is certainly a good fall of snow, but not all that uncommon in the North East. It has happened around half a dozen times here since 1990.

EDIT: 1991, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2010, for example, possibly 1994, 1996? Not sure about the last 2.

I agree here in the Northeast of England we get decent snowfall amounts compared to other areas in the Uk the mildest winter ive ever experienced with only 1 day covering of snow is 2006/07 i think it was. Otherthan that we do very well and Im happy in the position I am far enough away from the coast to minimise the warming but also close enough to the coast to catch the showers.

Edited October 2, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[Alex95]

Really? You could always tell us what you think, and what would be your perfect climate!

I agree; we here in NE England have brilliant amounts of snowfall, when others don't!

I wouldn't say we egt brilliant amounts of snowfall, but by UK standards its pretty good. In most low-level cities in the UK, a 4 inch fall would be quite unusual, whereas in the North East it happens nearly every time we get a cold snap lasting at least 2-3 days with winds from the North or the East. The northerly at the end of January last year was a good example; most parts of the UK were snow-free, whereas 2-4 inches was widespread around Tyneside at least, and completely unforecast!

I agree here in the Northeast of England we get decent snowfall amounts compared to other areas in the Uk the mildest winter ive ever experienced with only 1 day covering of snow is 2006/07 i think it was. Otherthan that we do very well and Im happy in the position I am far enough away from the coast to minimise the warming but also close enough to the coast to catch the showers.

In 2006-07 I had about 5 days of lying snow, but it never exceeded 2cm. Tyneside often seems to do better for snow than Teesside, but I'm not sure why?