Winter 2010/2011

[Snowstorm1]

I wouldn't say we egt brilliant amounts of snowfall, but by UK standards its pretty good. In most low-level cities in the UK, a 4 inch fall would be quite unusual, whereas in the North East it happens nearly every time we get a cold snap lasting at least 2-3 days with winds from the North or the East. The northerly at the end of January last year was a good example; most parts of the UK were snow-free, whereas 2-4 inches was widespread around Tyneside at least, and completely unforecast!

In 2006-07 I had about 5 days of lying snow, but it never exceeded 2cm. Tyneside often seems to do better for snow than Teesside, but I'm not sure why?

Im unsure too but I think its because most of the time the winds come from the north and northeast and your further north a bit closer to the coast so that maybe why? Anyways hopefully another good winter this year, the Ne discussion to be just as good as last year if not better hopefully and currently as published in my forecast bringing all long range weather tools together Im currently thinking a worse winter than last year maybe on the cards as published in my winter forecast

[Fozfoster]

I wouldn't say we egt brilliant amounts of snowfall, but by UK standards its pretty good. In most low-level cities in the UK, a 4 inch fall would be quite unusual, whereas in the North East it happens nearly every time we get a cold snap lasting at least 2-3 days with winds from the North or the East. The northerly at the end of January last year was a good example; most parts of the UK were snow-free, whereas 2-4 inches was widespread around Tyneside at least, and completely unforecast!

In 2006-07 I had about 5 days of lying snow, but it never exceeded 2cm. Tyneside often seems to do better for snow than Teesside, but I'm not sure why?

you lucky pigs. Us in Warwick get almost zip, what ever wind direction,

[Alex95]

Im unsure too but I think its because most of the time the winds come from the north and northeast and your further north a bit closer to the coast so that maybe why? Anyways hopefully another good winter this year, the Ne discussion to be just as good as last year if not better hopefully and currently as published in my forecast bringing all long range weather tools together Im currently thinking a worse winter than last year maybe on the cards as published in my winter forecast

I have to say the Jet Stream is certainly heading south again at the moment, with low pressure undercutting the high pressure over Scandinavia on the Model Outputs. If this continues into winter it could well be an interesting year, but I feel that after a very good start to winter we will end up with high pressure at out latitude, rather than to the north, so it will be cool and dry rather than bitterly cold, like in 2005/06. However, that sort of pattern can still allow an easterly to take shape, so really it could go either way. I'm fairly confident of a cold November and December, so my forecast would be a colder version of 2005/06. That wasn't a bad winter anyway, with significant snowfall in the North East in late December and early March, and even a 2 inch fall here in November

you lucky pigs. Us in Warwick get almost zip, what ever wind direction,

Edited October 2, 2010 by alza

[greybing]

Really? You could always tell us what you think, and what would be your perfect climate!

I agree; we here in NE England have brilliant amounts of snowfall, when others don't!

my perfect climate would be a warm summer ,plenty of sun,the odd thunder storm and bit of rain,no drought.....autumn ,not bothered ,frost wind,don't care.....winter would be cold with intermittent heavy snow ,the odd bad white out blizzard,clear,freezing fog....the whole gamut of stereotypical winter weather.spring,dont care.......flowers maybe,lambs giving birth ,that sort of thing

[Alex95]

my perfect climate would be a warm summer ,plenty of sun,the odd thunder storm and bit of rain,no drought.....autumn ,not bothered ,frost wind,don't care.....winter would be cold with intermittent heavy snow ,the odd bad white out blizzard,clear,freezing fog....the whole gamut of stereotypical winter weather.spring,dont care.......flowers maybe,lambs giving birth ,that sort of thing

Sounds a bit like the French Alps? Try somewhere near Thones; it often gets up to 25-30°C during summer, whilst winters aren't as severe as higher up in the mountains, but there are a few falls of 6-12 inches each year I believe.

Annecy (near Thones) in Summer:

Annecy in Winter:

Edited October 2, 2010 by alza

[summer blizzard]

Thats pretty poor actually, when I lived in lower ground Leeds (60m) I would expect 10cm+ twice or more every winter, in the last twenty years this has only not happened once (06/07).

Indeed, we do get some pretty frequent and heavy snow, the easterly in Febuary 2005 saw snow showers fall consecutively for 15 days, including one snow event of 12cm on the 23rd, the 31st January 2003 was notable in that we had 11cm in 6 hours, and the snowflakes were absolutely massive with no wind at all, and lets not forget the winter just gone, snow lay from the 18th December until the 18th January and then again for the last half of Febuary (though piles of snow survived from December), the snow event on January 5th brought 21cm, the highest amount i have ever seen and Febuary 2009 saw snowfall of 14cm present for 14 days.

[Isolated Frost]

Sounds a bit like the French Alps? Try somewhere near Thones; it often gets up to 25-30°C during summer, whilst winters aren't as severe as higher up in the mountains, but there are a few falls of 6-12 inches each year I believe.

Annecy (near Thones) in Summer:

Annecy in Winter:

Ooooo... yes please! Regarding snowfall, when I go down a few miles into Stanley and Consett, there are massive amounts of snow, if I get hit by an inch, they get hit by 3!

[Guest]

Ooooo... yes please! Regarding snowfall, when I go down a few miles into Stanley and Consett, there are massive amounts of snow, if I get hit by an inch, they get hit by 3!

It's amazing how snowfall amounts can vary over very short distances. At one point in the winter just passed I had only 3 inches of snow while my parents only 1/2 mile away had eight inches. There were two reasons for it, firstly I lived in the centre of our village with 30 flats/houses within a 100m radius (while my parent's house sits within a garden of the same radius) so we had a mini-urban heat island effect going on; secondly most of the snow fell from snow showers from the east and my parents house is at the top of the hill while my flat was at the bottom of the hill to the west (i.e. in the snow shadow).

Edited October 2, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[greybing]

It's amazing how snowfall amounts can vary over very short distances. At one point in the winter just passed I had only 3 inches of snow while my parents only 1/2 mile away had eight inches. There were two reasons for it, firstly I lived in the centre of our village with 30 flats/houses within a 100m radius (while my parent's house sits within a garden of the same radius) so we had a mini-urban heat island effect going on; secondly most of the snow fell from snow showers from the east and my parents house is at the top of the hill while my flat was at the bottom of the hill to the west (i.e. in the snow shadow).

it is true what you say only i think phonomena like this is more noticable in a temperate climate like ours ,we are closer to that zone between rain and snow and ,in general we have moderate falls of snow.....for example if our climate was colder and wetter the difference of a few inches in snow cover between close places would be less noticable .If you have a foot of snow on the ground ,a foot and a half is not that notable

[joggs]

Ok after last years forecast of an 80s style winter here we go again

The main change from last year is La nina, however other major factors are still in place.

So it will be an almost identical run to last winter, unusual for some as global warming should mean less off this( lets not get into that can of worms here)

So rainfall in its plentyful quantity again as we head into winter,Some Snow before christmas with a brief cold spell, An 80s style mix of cold then as we move into 2011 but with snowfall making the news.

Signifigant cold spell with travel disruption and undercutting lows effecting the South, away from the very far coastal areas.

A Blocking high over North East Europe will help this situation occur along with Sudden Stratosphere warming amplified by a low solar influence. The Al nina will probably peak around December and during this period a cold spell will be likely over North East USA.

An brief AO and -NAO will allow deep cold air to plunge over northern Europe.

So think 80s and a true mix of winter.

And ok last winter was refered as cold as 70s not 80s but remember when i made my forecast Met O went for a mild winter. So i think my 80s style was close enough.

Pyrotech i think it was too. Im new to all this but what i,ve picked up and learnt over the last few years from experts and people on n/w alike, im coming to a conclusion for this winter of a cold December,slightly milder january and a very cold v late jan/early feb. Ive weighed up the best of NAO , AO, and the sun as it is now. They in my oppinion are the best pointers. Ive also checkt out maps from different decades and weighing everything up the above is all i can give. So shoot me down everybody x

[Cymro]

Hehe Fought I'de post this again. I wrote it about two years ago for here and ever since we've had good winters so If I post it again it might bring us a good omen? An perhaps a chuckle?

Net Weather Snow Prayer for Southerners.

It’s 1am and I’m wide awake

Awaiting that single white fluffy flake

Oh heavens it’s rain for goodness sake

The met said 10 inches, Yet another mistake

Servere weather warnings all out in force

One for Yorkshire and Aberdeenshire of course

But Wales and the West where’s its blowing a gale

All we get is bloody pointless hail

I say to myself well there’s always next time

And the time after and after until spring bells chime

There it is, it starts falling right to the ground

One after the other with droplets all around

Again d.p. and temp wasn’t right

Not even that -4 at the beginning of the night

The lakes are frozen but all in despite

Whatever is falling sure isn’t white

Please god if your listening to this little prayer

Chuck us some white stuff to show that you care

A dusting a sprinkling or an inch or two

Just so that we can say to those northerners Yes MEE TOO.

Amen

[ZONE 51]

Last winter the AO went NEGATIVE extreme ,at that time their was EL-NINO , it was looking mild with cold spells ,then a sudden change caught us out, i am thinking that as we have LA-NINA this winter different extreme weather would affect a new area, for example the america snowstorms would they not occur in different areas due to la-nina?

How negative is the AO going to go? when a cold block sets up during november i think then the cold builds up for december which could be severe.

[The Northern Ramper]

I live in west Manchester and the last occasion of a 15cm+ snowfall before last winter was 1981-82.

There was an article in Weather magazine in the mid 1980s recording Manchester snowfalls of 15cm+ since 1880. 18 occasions and last winter was the 19th. The snowfalls of 1996 and late December 2000 never breeched the 15cm mark.

What was Greater Manchester I live near the Lancs/yorks border at over 600 feet and even when we are forecast good snow it somehow rarely happens and yet 10 miles East over the hill they have tons of the stuff

I call it the Manchester dome which closes when snow approaches and opens for rain.

[Snowmadsam]

Hehe Fought I'de post this again. I wrote it about two years ago for here and ever since we've had good winters so If I post it again it might bring us a good omen? An perhaps a chuckle?

Net Weather Snow Prayer for Southerners.

It’s 1am and I’m wide awake

Awaiting that single white fluffy flake

Oh heavens it’s rain for goodness sake

The met said 10 inches, Yet another mistake

Servere weather warnings all out in force

One for Yorkshire and Aberdeenshire of course

But Wales and the West where’s its blowing a gale

All we get is bloody pointless hail

I say to myself well there’s always next time

And the time after and after until spring bells chime

There it is, it starts falling right to the ground

One after the other with droplets all around

Again d.p. and temp wasn’t right

Not even that -4 at the beginning of the night

The lakes are frozen but all in despite

Whatever is falling sure isn’t white

Please god if your listening to this little prayer

Chuck us some white stuff to show that you care

A dusting a sprinkling or an inch or two

Just so that we can say to those northerners Yes MEE TOO.

Amen

Haha awsome

[Weather-history]

The last two winters saw notably cold starts to the New Year.

1st-10th Jan CET

2009: -0.4C

2010: -1.9C

The odds would suggest against another such cold start to the New Year as this.

One quirk

Every winter month has been colder than it predecessor since 2006-07

Dec 06: 6.5

Dec 07: 4.9

Dec 08: 3.5

Dec 09: 3.1

Jan 07: 7.0

Jan 08: 6.6

Jan 09: 3.0

Jan 10: 1.4

Feb 07: 5.8

Feb 08: 5.4

Feb 09: 4.1

Feb 10: 2.8

The odds would suggest at least one of those month will be warmer than its predecessor.

Edited October 3, 2010 by Mr_Data

[reef]

I have to say, one thing I particularly like about NE England is that it is much more capable of getting heavy snowfall than other parts of the UK! 6 inches is certainly a good fall of snow, but not all that uncommon in the North East. It has happened around half a dozen times here since 1990.

EDIT: 1991, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2010, for example, possibly 1994, 1996? Not sure about the last 2.

That is certainly not the case here. In the last 23 years only February 1991 and January 2004 have managed above 15cm.

Highest snow accumulations here in recent winters/springs:

2004/05: 2cm on 20th Feb and later on March 5th.

2005/06: 2cm on 27th Dec then nothing until March when we had three falls of 1.0cm, 1.5cm and 2.0cm.

2006/07: nothing measurable

2007/08: 0.5cm on 3rd January then 4.0cm 23rd March and 1.0cm on 7th April.

2008/09: 0.5cm Nov 23rd, 0.5cm 2nd Feb, 4.0cm 12th Feb

2009/10: 4.0cm 20th Dec, 4.0-8.0cm from 5th - 10th Jan, 1.5cm 30th Jan.

So nothing above 8.0cm for 6½ years now. Pretty poor really.

[Gavin P]

The last two winters saw notably cold starts to the New Year.

1st-10th Jan CET

2009: -0.4C

2010: -1.9C

The odds would suggest against another such cold start to the New Year as this.

One quirk

Every winter month has been colder than it predecessor since 2006-07

Dec 06: 6.5

Dec 07: 4.9

Dec 08: 3.5

Dec 09: 3.1

Jan 07: 7.0

Jan 08: 6.6

Jan 09: 3.0

Jan 10: 1.4

Feb 07: 5.8

Feb 08: 5.4

Feb 09: 4.1

Feb 10: 2.8

The odds would suggest at least one of those month will be warmer than its predecessor.

*puts on cool American drawl"

Never tell me the odds.

[Nights King]

*puts on cool American drawl"

Never tell me the odds.

Would be a harsh winter if we could follow that trend again this year!?

Would be nice to see a good old winter storm with drifting which is one thing last 2 winters have lacked. We have had the 30-40cm heavy falls several times but there was never much of a strong wind to go with it.

Edited October 3, 2010 by mullender83

[snowlover2009]

Would be a harsh winter if we could follow that trend again this year!?

Would be nice to see a good old winter storm with drifting which is one thing last 2 winters have lacked. We have had the 30-40cm heavy falls several times but there was never much of a strong wind to go with it.

you would think with a la nina this year and bigger storms, plus southerly jet and n.blocking that we could see some really big storms with drifting. the storms have been less stormy in recent winters.

[CJWRC]

Since when have the odds ever had any effect on the weather?

It's not exactly a teleconnection. We should just look at it as any other year and look at whats going to influence our weather patterns. Odds and statistics do not effect the year thats coming!

[Weather-history]

Since when have the odds ever had any effect on the weather?

It's not exactly a teleconnection. We should just look at it as any other year and look at whats going to influence our weather patterns. Odds and statistics do not effect the year thats coming!

Odds don't affect the weather but who says you can't do a forecast based on statistical odds? For instance do you think the statistical odds favour a November as wet as last year?

[WS Evolution]

Paul Hudson going for a cold winter....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

And once again, a colder than average winter looks the most likely outcome based on the latest projections.

Paul Hudson

[swipe]

Paul Hudson going for a cold winter....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

And once again, a colder than average winter looks the most likely outcome based on the latest projections.

Paul Hudson

I really hope he's wrong. I don't think I could stand another winter like last year.

[Thundery wintry showers]

To be fair, it could be a lot colder than average and still be rather less so than last year!

[blitzen]

I think Joe B is keeping his options more open?

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index.asp?partner=accuweather

Any info on the years that he is talking about TWS? 50/51, 55/56 & 95/96. Curious.

Edited October 3, 2010 by Blitzen