Winter 2010/2011

[Ladyofthestorm]

<br />apparently they found an old roman thermometer near hadrians wall which read -35c. they keep it in a freezer at newcastle university so they dont lose the reading<br />

<br /><br /><br />

or more sensibly used tree ring, and glacial analysis?

[artfularshavin]

do believe that the atlantic is not as strong as it has been the last few years,im not talking about the last two winters just the other ones previously that were horrible mild windy and wet.it seems that even now when we get a westerly or southwesterly from the atlantic,its never too strong more of a weak 2 or 3 day affair at the best.its like it doesnt have much to give anymore,and most of our low pressures and weather systems seem to be coming from the south of us like off the near continent.interesting i feel the continent will influence our weather this winter and of course,europe is very rarely mild during the winter months,so it is all good news for the uk winter this year. i will say again expect LOWER TEMPERATURES then last year but i also think it will be dryer. you can say what you like but i firmly believe that this winter will be close to EXTREME! let alone SEVERE..due to the reasons i hav said above.

p.s im no expert but am learning and always look at the charts and things whenever possible

please can people comment and let me know what you honestly think to my post.

Edited October 6, 2010 by artfularshavin

[chionomaniac]

There is an annual graph re inverse relationship at the bottom of page 13 of this paper C which might be useful. (Sorry I don't know how to isolate the page.)

Hi Blitzen, I didn't get back to you but did you mean to put a link up?

As for the AMO/NAO relationship, I wasn't aware there was one that works like that but what does tend to happen is -ve NAO winters tend to allow the tropics and also the northern waters to really warm up because of the weaker subtropical high pressure belt and that eventually allows a +ve AMO to strengthen. The perfect example of that occured last winter actually.

Some one on Eastern was suggesting this link, KW but I can't remember who. What you are suggesting is that a -ve NAO will have a positive feedback increasing a +ve AMO but I am wondering is the reverse true. The stronger the AMO becomes, further weakening of the sub tropical HP belt occurs, allowing the current -NAO phase to continue and so on and so forth.

[blitzen]

Hi Blitzen, I didn't get back to you but did you mean to put a link up?

Hi. I thought I did and now I've lost it! If you Google Inverse relationship AMO/NAO the site MULTIDECADAL TENDENCIES IN ENSO is the link I was referring to. The graph is towards the bottom of page 13. Obviously this is way over my head and it might not be what you are looking for. Then again it might be.

Edited October 6, 2010 by Blitzen

[weathe20]

do believe that the atlantic is not as strong as it has been the last few years,im not talking about the last two winters just the other ones previously that were horrible mild windy and wet.it seems that even now when we get a westerly or southwesterly from the atlantic,its never too strong more of a weak 2 or 3 day affair at the best.its like it doesnt have much to give anymore,and most of our low pressures and weather systems seem to be coming from the south of us like off the near continent.interesting i feel the continent will influence our weather this winter and of course,europe is very rarely mild during the winter months,so it is all good news for the uk winter this year. i will say again expect LOWER TEMPERATURES then last year but i also think it will be dryer. you can say what you like but i firmly believe that this winter will be close to EXTREME! let alone SEVERE..due to the reasons i hav said above.

p.s im no expert but am learning and always look at the charts and things whenever possible

please can people comment and let me know what you honestly think to my post.

You havent given any reasons why this winter will be severe.

[chionomaniac]

Hi. I thought I did and now I've lost it! If you Google Inverse relationship AMO/NAO the site MULTIDECADAL TENDENCIES IN ENSO is the link I was referring to. The graph is towards the bottom of page 13. Obviously this is way over my head and it might not be what you are looking for. Then again it might be.

Thanks Blitzen, Found it.

[artfularshavin]

You havent given any reasons why this winter will be severe.

well i think the reasons why it will be severe are that,mostly our weather will be coming off the continent,and europe will have a freezing winter too! so its quite obvious that the the weather will be coming from a VERY COLD source! where as before al we got was manly southwesterlys off the warm soggy atalntic! also europe predicted to have the coldest most severe winter for a 1000 years! theres too many things leaning towards the cold theme,to suggest otherwise! wait and see...

[greybing]

well i think the reasons why it will be severe are that,mostly our weather will be coming off the continent,and europe will have a freezing winter too! so its quite obvious that the the weather will be coming from a VERY COLD source! where as before al we got was manly southwesterlys off the warm soggy atalntic! also europe predicted to have the coldest most severe winter for a 1000 years! theres too many things leaning towards the cold theme,to suggest otherwise! wait and see...

why will it be coming off the continent,what,weak gulf stream,why

[Radiating Dendrite]

Why do people always take these forecasts to heart.............just because the Daily Mail reports it does not mean it will be true.

A colder winter does not mean icebergs off the coast of Kent. It means colder compared to the average in this country not Siberia.

[Marcus_surfer]

Why do people always take these forecasts to heart.............just because the Daily Mail reports it does not mean it will be true.

A colder winter does not mean icebergs off the coast of Kent. It means colder compared to the average in this country not Siberia.

I completely agree with you on this one. I tend to ignore all newspaper Website's because they always come up with some silly story about freezing temperatures and widespread snow. I agree -20C is very cold, but not exactly severe or threatning (it's called winter!).

I also don't believe in long range forecast's anymore, simply because many Website predicting winter and summer forecasts have gotten them so wrong in the last few years. I don't really know what to believe with global warming either. I just think that mother nature will throw anything at us at any time. I have a feeling we will be in for another cold winter, but i don't think we will see the snow as widespread as last year (this is just my feelings). So lets just sit tight until Christmas, so we have a much more better understanding on what's ahead.

[artfularshavin]

why will it be coming off the continent,what,weak gulf stream,why

oh sorry,it is due to low pressure systems running south of the uk,introducing easterlies over the top of it. the weather will generally be blocked into a sustained cold.with the winds either from a north/northeast or east,most of the time.any break down will only mean slight less cold i wouldnt even use the word mild at all through this winter. as the best the atlantic with throw will be a light southerly flow at times. so the main source of our weather this winter will be from the east.

people comments on this post are very welcome.please x

Edited October 6, 2010 by artfularshavin

[greybing]

oh sorry,it is due to low pressure systems running south of the uk,introducing easterlies over the top of it. the weather will generally be blocked into a sustained cold.with the winds either from a north/northeast or east,most of the time.any break down will only mean slight less cold i wouldnt even use the word mild at all through this winter. as the best the atlantic with throw will be a light southerly flow at times. so the main source of our weather this winter will be from the east.

people comments on this post are very welcome.please x

who knows man,i hope so......but long range forcasting is flawed,so any forcasts for the coming months i would take with a pinch of salt

[NorthantsSnow]

Long range CFS looking a lot more promising since the last time I looked. Below average Dec, Jan, Feb? Yes please!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/euT2mMonNorm.gif

[cheeky_monkey]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/euT2mMonNorm.gif

different from yesterday..no doubt be different again tomorrow

[DAVID SNOW]

oh sorry,it is due to low pressure systems running south of the uk,introducing easterlies over the top of it. the weather will generally be blocked into a sustained cold.with the winds either from a north/northeast or east,most of the time.any break down will only mean slight less cold i wouldnt even use the word mild at all through this winter. as the best the atlantic with throw will be a light southerly flow at times. so the main source of our weather this winter will be from the east.

people comments on this post are very welcome.please x

Hello art,a quick question if i may?

Are you a new poster on NW, or have you posted before under a different name?

[kold weather]

The coldest winter in a 1000 years thing is just a load of trash quite honestly I wouldn't pay any attention to it...its a bit like when someone keeps claiming every spring that we will get to 40-45C in the UK in the upcoming summer, very rarely will we even come close yet alone get there...

Thats not to say this winter can't be cold, but I personally can see more arguements for a above average winter then a below one right at this moment, but then again the arguement for a below average winter possibly are stronger so its a tough call IMO, normally it'd be an easy call...La Nina's this strong = mild and wet but the tendency for a -ve NAO in the last 9 months has been very impressive and hard to totally go against.

I'd make a punt with all that said that November will feature probably a fairly strong cold spell for the time of year at some point, maybe like a slightly weaker version of November 2005?

[DeepSnow]

Been loving reading all these posts, im not sure i mind too much what this winter turns out like, aslong as there are one or two decent cold, snowy spells! Although prefer a colder winter! I also would not mind a nice cold spell in November, and if it is like Nov. 2005 then great, as the end of that month we had 5/6inches of snow here!

I wouldn't mind something like that next month! I've seen more and more often people thinking that there will be a cold spell next month, is it likely to be anything like this if there is one? or is that just too much wishful thinking?

This was taken on 25th November 2005

Edited October 6, 2010 by Deepsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The coldest winter in a 1000 years thing is just a load of trash quite honestly I wouldn't pay any attention to it...its a bit like when someone keeps claiming every spring that we will get to 40-45C in the UK in the upcoming summer, very rarely will we even come close yet alone get there...

Thats not to say this winter can't be cold, but I personally can see more arguements for a above average winter then a below one right at this moment, but then again the arguement for a below average winter possibly are stronger so its a tough call IMO, normally it'd be an easy call...La Nina's this strong = mild and wet but the tendency for a -ve NAO in the last 9 months has been very impressive and hard to totally go against.

I'd make a punt with all that said that November will feature probably a fairly strong cold spell for the time of year at some point, maybe like a slightly weaker version of November 2005?

Indeed the strong El Nino last winter one would suspect a mild winter. The -ve NAO which continues is key and I believe this will continue as one might expect as I believe it is strongly linked to the solar driven perturbation cycle. This IMO was the reason for the cold winter last year despite a strong El Nino and it may well do the same to the La Nina as you suggest...but one added spice...if its cold it will be a match for last winter...at least.

BFTP

[kold weather]

The thing that is interesting to me BFTP is I am seeing some similarities to the 54-56 period with regards to a deep La Nina developing and the slow descent of the PDO towards a longer term negative, though the AMO stays positive for a little bit longer yet, it looks to me that the best match at least in those 3 basic ideas would have to be that 54-56 period which actually did contain some very good winters despite a fairly strong La Nina at times.

We will see though, its an interesting time and things will shift about quite alot in the next 10-15 years overall away from the pattern we've become used to.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The thing that is interesting to me BFTP is I am seeing some similarities to the 54-56 period with regards to a deep La Nina developing and the slow descent of the PDO towards a longer term negative, though the AMO stays positive for a little bit longer yet, it looks to me that the best match at least in those 3 basic ideas would have to be that 54-56 period which actually did contain some very good winters despite a fairly strong La Nina at times.

We will see though, its an interesting time and things will shift about quite alot in the next 10-15 years overall away from the pattern we've become used to.

A very good call on the period match. The Perturbation cycle back then was in the same phase as we have just switched to in Feb 2007 and I expect the same response to La Nina and El Ninos.....1-0 as last years response was spot on. Winter 40/1 comes to my mind re this winter approaching, certainly for Europe....will we join in. The solar and lunar phasing suggest colder climes with the extra whammy of a potential deep minima.

BFTP

Edited October 6, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[summer blizzard]

The thing that is interesting to me BFTP is I am seeing some similarities to the 54-56 period with regards to a deep La Nina developing and the slow descent of the PDO towards a longer term negative, though the AMO stays positive for a little bit longer yet, it looks to me that the best match at least in those 3 basic ideas would have to be that 54-56 period which actually did contain some very good winters despite a fairly strong La Nina at times.

We will see though, its an interesting time and things will shift about quite alot in the next 10-15 years overall away from the pattern we've become used to.

The winter of 1956 is probably our best match for the QBO and La Nina data combined, though the winter of 1965 is also a very strong match based on the summer data though at the moment, the polar atmosphere seems to be going along with La Nina and ignoring the QBO.

The AMO does indeed have an inverse correlation with the NAO, posiibly because it reinforces the Tropical wave breaking encouraging strong heights over Siberia ridging into the Arctic, however if the Pacific does not play ball, it may well mean a blowtorch (think the winter of 2007).

Given statistical correlations, i think that a below average December is pretty much secured, however until we know that winter state of the QBO and La Nina, the jury will be out for January and February.

[snowlover2009]

A very good call on the period match. The Perturbation cycle back then was in the same phase as we have just switched to in Feb 2007 and I expect the same response to La Nina and El Ninos.....1-0 as last years response was spot on. Winter 40/1 comes to my mind re this winter approaching, certainly for Europe....will we join in. The solar and lunar phasing suggest colder climes with the extra whammy of a potential deep minima.

BFTP

Hi BFTP, could you some up the winter months for 40/41? it was a pretty cold winter, but which months were the best and snowiest and were there many mild periods. i know there is archives on wetter, but i find the archives for anything before 1947 difficult to follow, because the graphics are different to now.

[Alex95]

Hi BFTP, could you some up the winter months for 40/41? it was a pretty cold winter, but which months were the best and snowiest and were there many mild periods. i know there is archives on wetter, but i find the archives for anything before 1947 difficult to follow, because the graphics are different to now.

You can find the charts here. The charts look different to now because there wasn't as much data available then (I think). You can still get an impression of how 'easterly' that winter was, with the biggest snowfalls being away from the Northwest.

Also, this is a very interesting (and easy to follow) read: The history of British winters

Edited October 6, 2010 by alza

[snowlover2009]

You can find the charts here. The charts look different to now because there wasn't as much data available then (I think). You can still get an impression of how 'easterly' that winter was, with the biggest snowfalls being away from the Northwest.

Also, this is a very interesting (and easy to follow) read: The history of British winters

jesus christ, -21 in london. can you imagine how cold it would have been in rural england!

how come these set ups dont occur when we get cold easterlies in uk? like how come we cannot get -21 in london, yet in 1700s and 1800s we could do. now i cannot even see it ever happening, even with the possibility of the uk getting colder winters. it is very strange. the air temperatures would have been exceptional indeed. another thing i dont understand is that when i read some of the winter of 1700s they had cets of 0.8, yet recorded on -18 or a little colder several occasions in one month?

what do we need exactly to get this sort of weather now.

one more thing it says london has recorded -21, yet on weather records how come you see mild weather record temps??

Edited October 6, 2010 by snowlover2009

[summer blizzard]

Hi BFTP, could you some up the winter months for 40/41? it was a pretty cold winter, but which months were the best and snowiest and were there many mild periods. i know there is archives on wetter, but i find the archives for anything before 1947 difficult to follow, because the graphics are different to now.

The winter of 1941 was the coldest in western Russia, it was also unlucky for Hitler that he invaded the preceeding Autumn and thus lost 100,000 men to frostbite.