Winter 2010/2011

[blitzen]

If the Gulf Stream does indeed interact with the jet stream as is suggested here http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080320181838.htm Then perhaps this is the reason why the extra tropical systems are decaying and veering off well before they reach us. If the Gulf stream has weakened and the jet stream is fragmenting then any systems are unable to 'hitch a ride' so to speak?

Edited September 19, 2010 by Blitzen

[Northernlights]

A while back I said that I would wait to see what the hurricane season would bring to our shores. Right now we have two major tropical systems in the atlantic, and if the GFS is to believed none will make it over as extra tropical features. Instead they will slowly degrade while moving towards Greenland. We did see something like this earlier on this year, with weather systems in the atlantic almost being turned on there heals and going off in the opposite direction. This year it has started even earlier.

The NAO is also negative and continues to be stubbornly so.last year at this time it was positive and brought along with it a spell of wet and windy weather that broke my hubbys wind turbine.

Its been what I would call a benign summer and continues to be so as we move into autumn. I cant see no let up in the current situation. I think we could very well be in for a repeat of last winters slack, very cold airflow, but this time starting much earlier. We just need that air to cool over the continent and we will get what europe gets most years.

There has been another thread about the gulfstream, it has switched off, but it hasnt got the power it should have at this time of the year either. If the southern ocsillation can swtich moods Im sure the gulfstream is more than capable of slowing down as well.

Farmers still have about 25% of spring barley and 70% of winter wheat to cut in NE Scotland(sown late after the cold spring and therfore ripening later) and I am sure they could do with some equinoxial gales to dry out the crop after a very damp dull day here. Strong winds are needed now at this time of the year to dry the crop as the sun is fairly weak and only dries up the dew enough to cut in the middle of the afternoon, but a windy day would allow some evening cutting. During the winters in the fifties and sixties which startd earlier in the autumn harvests were started earlier as crops were bindered half ripeand and then ripened in stooks before going into stacks from mid August but today farmers have to wait for crops to ripen in the fields well into September before combining them something which may have to looked at if winters start earlier.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Farmers still have about 25% of spring barley and 70% of winter wheat to cut in NE Scotland(sown late after the cold spring and therfore ripening later) and I am sure they could do with some equinoxial gales to dry out the crop after a very damp dull day here. Strong winds are needed now at this time of the year to dry the crop as the sun is fairly weak and only dries up the dew enough to cut in the middle of the afternoon, but a windy day would allow some evening cutting. During the winters in the fifties and sixties which startd earlier in the autumn harvests were started earlier as crops were bindered half ripeand and then ripened in stooks before going into stacks from mid August but today farmers have to wait for crops to ripen in the fields well into September before combining them something which may have to looked at if winters start earlier.

The same story over here on the west. Grass hasnt been cut for hay as the weather is just so stagnant. Fronts linger for days ,aking it wet and calm.

I dont hold mych hope of getting any wind soon Northernlights. The barley must surely be turning black by now.

[richardc1983]

The same story over here on the west. Grass hasnt been cut for hay as the weather is just so stagnant. Fronts linger for days ,aking it wet and calm.

I dont hold mych hope of getting any wind soon Northernlights. The barley must surely be turning black by now.

I agree what boring weather we are getting, its 15C here in Leeds, boring damp and mild!

[Northernlights]

The same story over here on the west. Grass hasnt been cut for hay as the weather is just so stagnant. Fronts linger for days ,aking it wet and calm.

I dont hold mych hope of getting any wind soon Northernlights. The barley must surely be turning black by now.

The barley colour is still OK as it is only just ripe in the higher areas away from the coast and to the east of me and was not ready in the 8 day good spell at the begining of September but some drying SW winds are needed to make it fit to cut now. Another thing I have noticed in recent years is a windy spell in August this year on the 21st of August which ripened my barley crop and knocked a few heads off (about 10%)and allowed us to cut it in the first few days of September whereas in the past we normally had to wait until around the 20th of September for any damaging or drying winds. Already assuming winter is going to start earlier from the forcasts on here and am moving all autumn outside operations forward by a month, probably going back to the farming timetable of the fifties and sixties.

[frostyjoe]

I agree what boring weather we are getting, its 15C here in Leeds, boring damp and mild!

Anoo i can't wait to thursday when we get back down to 12c again i for one am not looking forward to 13c tonight and 18c tomorrow under cloud ewgh..

[greybing]

NAO..........i would just like dome clarification on the definition of NAO in general, then i would like the definitions of both the positive and negative states.,-please do this without using specialised jargon but if so explain....thanks///////also do seosonal types ,ie cold or mild winters generally come in consecutive multiples.-

Edited September 19, 2010 by greybing

[Lewis]

I think this winter will be much colder than the latter one.

I honestly think that this winter we will get the proper northerly's not the same old 1-2 day toppler!! Wheres my evidence to back this up? I don't really have none other than I can just sense it. The way the winter has panned out, with our more settled and drier/hotter weather coming around spring, with a rather average summer I honestly think a cooling trend will start from around the 04-07th of October. A winter storm aswell coming in a months time with white out conditions for Scotland and parts of N england, severe gales for areas, and very heavy rain for Southern areas and Wales.

[Ladyofthestorm]

NAO..........i would just like dome clarification on the definition of NAO in general, then i would like the definitions of both the positive and negative states.,-please do this without using specialised jargon but if so explain....thanks///////also do seosonal types ,ie cold or mild winters generally come in consecutive multiples.-

I will try to make this as non jargon as I can for you

The meaning of NAO: It is a number index of between +1 and -1 where 0 is no difference/ neutral.

It means North Atlantic oscillation. It is the difference between two areas of pressure known as the icelandic low and the Azores high pressure.

If the pressure difference between them is great (eg a postive NAO) that is very low pressure over iceland and very high pressure over the azores, we can expect a run of westerly winds and associated wet weather.

If the pressure difference is less (eg a negative NAO) eg just a weak low and weak high pressure this leads to what we have right now weather wise! Little influence from the atlantic.

Hope this helpsx

[phil nw.]

NAO..........i would just like dome clarification on the definition of NAO in general, then i would like the definitions of both the positive and negative states.,-please do this without using specialised jargon but if so explain....thanks///////also do seosonal types ,ie cold or mild winters generally come in consecutive multiples.-

Hi Greybing,

NAO--NorthAtlantic Oscolation.

The index of Atmospheric Pressure Differences between Iceland and the Azores.

My previous post Number 177 shows a typical NAO index chart showing the long term negative state this year.

Here are links which explain further--

http://forum.netweat...ic-oscillation/

http://en.wikipedia....tic_oscillation

Hope these help along with the post from Ladyofthestorm.

Regards,Phil.

Edited September 19, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[snowlover2009]

this winter certainly looks like it has the potential to be another cracker, although im hoping more in the way of snowy which seems rather greedy of me. im still waiting for 5ft drifts and car wheels unnoticeable by snow. one thing to keep an eye on by lrfs is the cold anomalys over europe, although it may show a mild winter for us, it shows the potential of a very cold winter with cold over europe. sadly, i think joe laminate floori will be wrong on his 'average winter for uk'. the developments this autumn are very very unusual, with an active hurricane and storm season, we seem to be getting a lot of blocking and dry weather.

[Guest]

this winter certainly looks like it has the potential to be another cracker, although im hoping more in the way of snowy which seems rather greedy of me. im still waiting for 5ft drifts and car wheels unnoticeable by snow. one thing to keep an eye on by lrfs is the cold anomalys over europe, although it may show a mild winter for us, it shows the potential of a very cold winter with cold over europe. sadly, i think joe laminate floori will be wrong on his 'average winter for uk'. the developments this autumn are very very unusual, with an active hurricane and storm season, we seem to be getting a lot of blocking and dry weather.

To be fair he says that he has not had the opportunity to date to make an in depth analysis and this is just a good gut feeling but on the other hand it may be that he has conflicting feedback and does not yet know which way to jump.

Before winter proper is going to start it is at least another two months and in that time a lot can happen.

Say, a continental high centered over mid Europe could very well bring in fairly dry and not too cold southerlies over the UK, whilst the brass monkeys in central Europe are singing in a castrato fashion.

We will see

[cooling climate]

Chill out CC, you seem to have a temper like you're avater! No need to go on insulting people, heed your own advice.

I'm hoping this winter will provide a little more snow than the last, which despite the cold, was below average snowfall-wise for most of Ireland. Deepest snow was just 15cm for a few hours last January.

Has the southerly tracking jet stream been maintianed the last few months? I presume it would help with getting any prolonged cold...

Chionomaniac is quite right that the AO is not a driver as such but in a extreme state it

can overwhelm the other teleconnections.

You are right in the fact that my post to Kentish Kiwi was over the top and for that

I apologize to Kentish Kiwi and the board.

[Isolated Frost]

Just came across this, what do you's think? Actually made it quite easy to understand!

[Guest]

I wonder why he/she didn't give his/her name - checked weatheronline's site for Scandinavia and although it is cooling down, a slight warming is forecast to come back for Sunday. Also the Sea Level/500 millibar chart suggests that we are going to be under the influence of a high until 06.10.2010, which migrates east to central Europe, keeping a good portion of the west Scandinavia under southwesterly influence after this weekend.

[lobber]

If you click on the recent site activity on that site you can see the name of the person as Arjan Sangha. It certainly is an interesting read.

[Isolated Frost]

If you click on the recent site activity on that site you can see the name of the person as Arjan Sangha. It certainly is an interesting read.

It says his name is Thomas Rosetti at the bottom, he's updated it again. I can't see recent site activity

Night anyway!

Edited September 20, 2010 by Nuâ„¢ Design

[lobber]

How strange. The link was there at the bottom of the page just a moment ago. It's obviously a site in progress so I guess it's been changed. Oh well. At least the article has been signed.

[ronan]

Hello everyone. First time on here since last winter. Can't wait for the upcoming winter and i have been enjoying all your thoughts. I always look forward to what Joe laminate floori has to say as he hit last winters forecast on the head!! Just reading his blog there and unfortunately he has taken up another job and won't be doing his normal forecasts this year but he did say in the blog that he doesn't think Great Britain will be as cold this year! Have a read for yourselves.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

[cooling climate]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtml

[phil nw.]

http://www.cpc.ncep....teleintro.shtml

Go on then i `ll ask --why have you posted this link without additional comments C.C.?

I think i can guess your response but for others that may be interested please explain.

Edited September 21, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[cooling climate]

Go on then i `ll ask --why have you posted this link without additional comments C.C.?

I think i can guess your response but for others that may be interested please explain.

Some have just referred to the AO, NAO as a index of pressure in the Atlantic where as the

CPC have the NAO as one of 10 main teleconnections that can affect and control and change

the weather.

I personally think the AO has a bigger say than the NAO but that is just me.

[phil nw.]

Some have just referred to the AO, NAO as a index of pressure in the Atlantic where as the

CPC have the NAO as one of 10 main teleconnections that can affect and control and change

the weather.

I personally think the AO has a bigger say than the NAO but that is just me.

Thanks CC.

The AO,NAO, and the other 8 items listed ,are Teleconnection Patterns created by interaction of the Teleconnections(Drivers) themselves such as SST`s,Ocean Currents,Upper Atmospheric changes etc.

As i and others, more knowledgeable than me, have tried to explain these Patterns-AO,NAO etc,etc are Sypnotic Patterns created by the drivers just mentioned.

They are not drivers in themselves but form as a result of the all the pieces of interaction coming together--like the peices of a jigsaw,if you like.

It`s a bit like the Chicken or the Egg---The Drivers first then the Pattern.

I think this is where some misunderstanding has arisen in the previous posts.

These Patterns are shown on charts reflecting their strength of Positivity or Negativity- or indeed Idexes.

Here is the Historical AO Index-from the CPC site.

I believe i have explained correctly but if not i am hope one of the Forecast team can enlighten us.

Anyway here`s hoping for a Neg.AO and NAO this Winter.

Regards,Phil

[cooling climate]

This paragraph taken from the link I posted.

Teleconnection patterns reflect large-scale changes in the atmospheric wave and jet stream patterns, and influence temperature, rainfall, storm tracks, and jet stream location/ intensity over vast areas. Thus, they are often the culprit responsible for abnormal weather patterns occurring simultaneously over seemingly vast distances. For example, the 1995/986 winter was very cold and snowy over much of eastern North America, while northern Europe and Scandinavia were cold and southern Europe/ northern Africa experienced very wet and stormy conditions. These conditions were all partly related to the same teleconnection pattern: a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

As I said earlier they are far more than just changes in pressure between two

given areas, and despite some years having the same Enso sign etc because of

these and the other teleconnections the resulting weather can be completely

different.

Anyway that is all I have to say, posters can draw their own conclusions.

[phil nw.]

This paragraph taken from the link I posted.

Teleconnection patterns reflect large-scale changes in the atmospheric wave and jet stream patterns, and influence temperature, rainfall, storm tracks, and jet stream location/ intensity over vast areas. Thus, they are often the culprit responsible for abnormal weather patterns occurring simultaneously over seemingly vast distances. For example, the 1995/986 winter was very cold and snowy over much of eastern North America, while northern Europe and Scandinavia were cold and southern Europe/ northern Africa experienced very wet and stormy conditions. These conditions were all partly related to the same teleconnection pattern: a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

As I said earlier they are far more than just changes in pressure between two

given areas, and despite some years having the same Enso sign etc because of

these and the other teleconnections the resulting weather can be completely

different.

Anyway that is all I have to say, posters can draw their own conclusions.

Yes i did read your Link prior to my previous posting CC.

I really can`t add or change anything other than to say the word Reflect in that first sentence is key to my views expressed.

I will refrain from repeating myself.