Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[Alex95]

I must say, that northerly next week is beginning to look quite impressive for the time of year! I doubt snow will be as widespread as during October 2008, but I think wintry showers will get down to lower levels providing there aren't any large downgrades; both the -5°C hpa and 528 DAM line are as far south as Northern France between +144 and +180 hrs on the GFS 06z, and the ECM also shows a potent northerly.

[camiscool]

Do you think there will be an sleet for

As far south as Kent?

[johnholmes]

Do you think there will be an sleet for

As far south as Kent?

hi cami

Try this link, it really does work if you are prepared to go through the list, its also fun to do it oneself rather than ask.

If you have any problems when reading through then just ask and I'll try and help.

[camiscool]

What link? Sorry I just dont know

About all this technical stuff Im new to weather

[cheeky_monkey]

I dont see why somebody who predicts an average or mild winter is being negative?..and why that forecast is pulled apart as being flawed..yet if the same forecast predicts cold and snow everybody jumps up and down and says take a look at this as being the best thing since sliced bread.

Me thinks a winter similar too those of the late nineties..1998-2000 is on the cards.

[johnholmes]

What link? Sorry I just dont know

About all this technical stuff Im new to weather

rry my fault I missed the link off, best you have a good read of the Guides they will help a lot, I will post the link in a tic

here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

Edited October 14, 2010 by johnholmes

[camiscool]

All I'm saying is there a chance ???

[WhiteXmas]

All I'm saying is there a chance ???

Read the link John kindly provided you and you will have the answer if you take the time to understand it. It is much more interesting if you can answer these questions yourself rather than having to rely on others.

Edited October 14, 2010 by WhiteXmas

[camiscool]

Sorry

[MR EXTREMES]

Anyone want to have a side wager ?

2 virtual pints that TWO's forecast when it is issued will feature 'average' temperature range rather than the below average.

absolutely reckon your going to be right,

the press come along and twist up the stories.

so do you reckon average winter? :drinks: heres your two drinks lol.

[johncoolj]

wow looks like next week will have some nice cold in uk and ireland maybe even snow

[Cymro]

I've a feeling the two forecast will be very dramatic in terms of cold they always are haha. Look at their Two buzz any excuse to mention snow and their away bless them .

[Cheese Rice]

Do you think there will be an sleet for

As far south as Kent?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Follow this link and click on 'select chart type'. Then click on '850 temp and slp'. Then click on the two arrows on the far right. and keep clicking till you see a northerly. Once you see blue over the UK click on 'select chart type', then 'precipitation type'. Again click on the two arrows and follow the key for snow etc. 

Bear in mind this isn't always correct. 

[Snowstorm1]

Snow showers next wednesday night? ;o But sadly this doesnt always come to fruitation, I think the northerly is nailed but the snow and cold potential isnt so dont get too excited yet for snow wait until 48hours before and if there is a chance then maybe get a touch excited but the only time the snow will fall will be between hours of 7pm to 7am and if anything lays will quickly melt during the morning in most low lying parts the scottish highlands however will hang onto it longer and may remain as snow throughout the day if any showers make it that far.

[Rajeeeeeeeeeeev]

so is there going to be snow in london next week?

[Cymro]

Snow showers next wednesday night? ;o But sadly this doesnt always come to fruitation, I think the northerly is nailed but the snow and cold potential isnt so dont get too excited yet for snow wait until 48hours before and if there is a chance then maybe get a touch excited but the only time the snow will fall will be between hours of 7pm to 7am and if anything lays will quickly melt during the morning in most low lying parts the scottish highlands however will hang onto it longer and may remain as snow throughout the day if any showers make it that far.

Quite agree, on a brighter note however such potent northerlies and cold shots do great to lower ground temps this time of year and the sea temperature which later in the season can come in handy on marginal events and be on the right side of marginal. Every little helps as tesco proclaims

[Cheese Rice]

Snow showers next wednesday night? ;o But sadly this doesnt always come to fruitation, I think the northerly is nailed but the snow and cold potential isnt so dont get too excited yet for snow wait until 48hours before and if there is a chance then maybe get a touch excited but the only time the snow will fall will be between hours of 7pm to 7am and if anything lays will quickly melt during the morning in most low lying parts the scottish highlands however will hang onto it longer and may remain as snow throughout the day if any showers make it that far.

We should get some good convection due to the sea been so much more warmer. Providing the showers are heavy enough a wintry mixture would be expected almost anywhere, obviously the further south you go the less the wintry element. The odds of lying snow is very low bar the highest hills, we would need a sustained period of heavy snow during the night, even if we were to achieve that during the day it unfortunately wouldn't settle.

so is there going to be snow in london next week?

Perhaps. But the odds are very low, and the precipitation would have to be very heavy, so alot of luck is involved. 

Have a browse at the GFS charts (forecasting charts).

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Alex95]

If I was living in Northern Scotland I'd be looking forward to an early cold snap, and keeping my fingers crossed for a dusting of snow. In Newcastle, however, I'm just hoping for a few wintry showers; they are by no means guaranteed, but they get me in the mood for winter

[Cymro]

Current output from the GFS continues to keep the focus for convective activity towards the coasts, as is typical when the upper flow is from a northerly direction. At the moment, northern and eastern parts of the UK look most favoured for the more potent convective activity as these parts look to be under the coldest upper air (resulting in steep mid-upper level lapse rates), and also due to the upper flow tending to flow eastward.

Depending on the potency of convection nearer to coastal areas, given the relatively cold T850s across southern parts of the UK, I would think there's a reasonable chance of sleet/snow falling in some showers. Though I think rain and hail would be the more likely form for precipitation to fall as further south. Over high ground and across northern parts of UK are the places that look more likely to see snow falling.

I tend to disagree here, They always proclaim the North and East do better in Northerlies with snow showers/convection etc however I have found this to actually not be the case. Western coastal areas also benefit greatly from northerlies as such do eastern costal regions, and such a flow can sprak streamers such that happened in january. I think its fair enough to say N to NE winds favour eastern areas and N to NW winds favour western yes, but this seems a rather direct northerly which would benefit both sides, if anything it has more of a N/NW tint to it than a NE tint. However coastal regions october? The prospect of snow atm very low in my opinion. Highest hills yes there's a chance even lower ground if conditions are right as 2008 proved true for most of Southern England. However conditions have to be perfect. Never say no but don't pin your hopes up.

[Alex95]

Current output from the GFS continues to keep the focus for convective activity towards the coasts, as is typical when the upper flow is from a northerly direction. At the moment, northern and eastern parts of the UK look most favoured for the more potent convective activity as these parts look to be under the coldest upper air (resulting in steep mid-upper level lapse rates), and also due to the upper flow tending to flow eastward.

Depending on the potency of convection nearer to coastal areas, given the relatively cold T850s across southern parts of the UK, I would think there's a reasonable chance of sleet/snow falling in some showers. Though I think rain and hail would be the more likely form for precipitation to fall as further south. Over high ground and across northern parts of UK are the places that look more likely to see snow falling.

The same was said in 2008, all I got was a few sleety showers on Halloween. In these very early cold snaps its usually just Northern Scotland which sees snow, whilst South of the border it is very unpredictable where any wintry showers will fall.

Edit: Adam has just sort of said what I was trying to say; often in October it takes a NNW to get low-level snow, and usually its inland parts of the NW Midlands which see any wintry showers.

Edited October 14, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

If I was living in Northern Scotland I'd be looking forward to an early cold snap, and keeping my fingers crossed for a dusting of snow. In Newcastle, however, I'm just hoping for a few wintry showers; they are by no means guaranteed, but they get me in the mood for winter

Im hoping for similar conditions and you never know if your really lucky you may get a heavy one during dark and give a dusting But that is really the limit I think after this cold shot I think a reload looks likely and that may bring more fun and games! with cooler sst and more cold up there snow will be able to fall to increasingly lower areas during night time hours.

[J10]

I tend to disagree here, They always proclaim the North and East do better in Northerlies with snow showers/convection etc however I have found this to actually not be the case. Western coastal areas also benefit greatly from northerlies as such do eastern costal regions, and such a flow can sprak streamers such that happened in january. I think its fair enough to say N to NE winds favour eastern areas and N to NW winds favour western yes, but this seems a rather direct northerly which would benefit both sides, if anything it has more of a N/NW tint to it than a NE tint. However coastal regions october? The prospect of snow atm very low in my opinion. Highest hills yes there's a chance even lower ground if conditions are right as 2008 proved true for most of Southern England. However conditions have to be perfect. Never say no but don't pin your hopes up.

Good post, good luck to all for the prospects of snow next week, but it is rather early for snow, and apart from northern hills, most areas will miss out.

[Marcus_surfer]

Good post, good luck to all for the prospects of snow next week, but it is rather early for snow, and apart from northern hills, most areas will miss out.

Can you remember the 25th November 2005 i think? We did well out of a northerly then...lets hope we get an early snowfall this year.

[Cymro]

Good post, good luck to all for the prospects of snow next week, but it is rather early for snow, and apart from northern hills, most areas will miss out.

Diolch .

I think it's way to early although theres a distinct chill in the air and today felt like a winters day in all fairness, snow ? Unlikely untill atleast after mid november in my opinion. Not impossible as years have proven but they are not the norm they are exceptions.

We could very well see flakes of snow anywhere with the 528 dam line right down to Northern France for a period and -5 uper air covering the whole of the uk to some extent also but if any showers form they will be coming off a relatively mildish sea comapred to winter months we're talking 11/12 degrees to coastal areas wich are always warmer, Not saying areas such as Snowdonia, Top of the Brecon Beacons, Lake District especially Shap and the Scottish Hills, and antrim won't see anything. But the way some people are talking they seem to think we're in for a winter wonderland come next thursday. Which although heavenly it would be is frankly not going to happen .

[Cymro]

Can you remember the 25th November 2005 i think? We did well out of a northerly then...lets hope we get an early snowfall this year.

I'm sure it was the 23rd of November you know I particulary remeber Carmarthenshire, Neath and Portalbot and Swansea doing very good out of this, Pembrokeshire dangler was the reason with showers forming in cardigan bay around aberystwyth running directly down (was a NW tint to it then) had a good 4 inches which persisted for a week in the shade .