Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[Cymro]

Seems to me Northern and Western areas will benefit more next week in terms of colder air than eastern areas.

[Guest]

GFS is forecasting maxima of 5C for next week...knowing the usual GFS over projections we could have a 2 or 3C day. Remarkable!!!

[Cheese Rice]

Winters coming   

Edit: Forecast for Leeds Airport 

Edited October 15, 2010 by 10123

[Cheese Rice]

Hasn't seen this symbol for a while 

[ZONE 51]

First taster on the way, sleet,hail, a snow flake or two... whatever it brings ,in the south expect nothing....get something!

[Stormyking]

Hasn't seen this symbol for a while

Surely that would be snow if those temps are at -2c

[Zakos]

Judging By the current weather patterns, Id say this winter for at least the first half will be very cold and snowy. The cold spells might not last as long as they did last year, and, the winter overall may possibly be slightly warmer than last year.

However, I expect very big snowfall totals, much more than last year, as I believe there will many cold spells, which are intervened by wet an mild spells from the Atlantic, which will bring regular heavy snow to the battle ground between the cold and warm fronts.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/eur_raw_temp.html

This animation predicts temperatures -20 the normal for this time of year in the UK. Although this will not bring significant snow or cold as it is still October, If this sort of set up occurs where temperatures dip to -20 below the average in December, you can imagine just how cold it may get.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp.html

This animation shows the temperature anomalies for the world. Just look how much of the world is experiencing below normal temperatures. Significant Global Cooling is underway.

[Cheese Rice]

Judging By the current weather patterns, Id say this winter for at least the first half will be very cold and snowy. The cold spells might not last as long as they did last year, and,  the winter overall may possibly be slightly warmer than last year.

However, I expect very big snowfall totals, much more than last year, as I believe there will many cold spells, which are intervened by wet an mild spells from the Atlantic, which will bring regular heavy snow to the battle ground between the cold and warm fronts.

Yes that's what I'm more or less expecting, Atlantic battle ground scenarios with Scotland experiencing average temperatures in winter. 

[Zakos]

Yes that's what I'm more or less expecting, Atlantic battle ground scenarios with Scotland experiencing average temperatures in winter.

Agreed. I think February is too far away to accurately predict. So Im not going to try.

But for the forthcoming I can not see any reason that set- up this will not happen.

[Backtrack]

GFS goes for snow in higher areas of Northern Scotland for next week, with temperatures struggling to get up past 0c.

Recorded 5.8C here last night. Lowest of the season. Expecting ground frost tonight.

[reef]

New thread for discussing the upcoming cold spell:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64473-cold-spell-general-discussion/

Please remember this thread is for discussion of the winter.

Thanks

[Coast]

I see Netweather are at the forefront of the 2010 winter forecasts today:

www.dailystar.co.uk/Big-freeze-on-cards-this-winter

[Backtrack]

I see Netweather are at the forefront of the 2010 winter forecasts today:

www.dailystar.co.uk/Big-freeze-on-cards-this-winter

Oh what?!

Did they get the forecast before us!!

[Stuart]

Good Forecast paul hope it right

[Backtrack]

Good Forecast paul hope it right

Good forecast?

You only read one month, they left January out, and only said about 25th December.....

[Coast]

Did they get the forecast before us!!

I don't think the brief couple of sentences covered by The Star are any subsitute for the full forecast when it arrives here! :lol:

[Backtrack]

I don't think the brief couple of sentences covered by The Star are any subsitute for the full forecast when it arrives here! :lol:

True :lol:

Missed most of December and January out.

When Paul says soon, does that mean today or next week? Don't see why he can't release it, he said it was done a while back.

Edited October 17, 2010 by Backtrack

[North-Easterly Blast]

I am getting very worried about the strong La Nina we have developing at the moment - look at recent strong La Nina winters - and how mild they have been - 2007-08, 1999-2000, 1998-99, and the 1988-89 disaster.

I cannot find any ENSO data pre 1950, but out of all the strong La Ninas since 1950 that have had a mean below -1.5*C, all have co-incided with mild winters, with the only exception being 1955-56, where La Nina weakened significantly in the early winter to about -1.0*C, and this did co-incide with a very cold month (Feb 1956).

Last winter was actually the first strong El Nino that I could find in the records that has co-incided with a cold winter; out of all the other El Ninos that got above +1.5*C as a mean, prior to 2009-10 not one of these co-incided with a cold winter, though one did co-incide with a cold and fairly snowy month (Feb 1983).

Many thought that last year's El Nino would wreck the winter, but it turned out quite the opposite to many winters in the 1990s and 2000s. What are other's thoughts on La Nina and the forthcoming winter?

[camperstron]

I am getting very worried about the strong La Nina we have developing at the moment - look at recent strong La Nina winters - and how mild they have been - 2007-08, 1999-2000, 1998-99, and the 1988-89 disaster.

This my concern too, I think we are looking at a mild winter TBH.

[Weather-history]

I cannot find any ENSO data pre 1950, but out of all the strong La Ninas since 1950 that have had a mean below -1.5*C, all have co-incided with mild winters, with the only exception being 1955-56, where La Nina weakened significantly in the early winter to about -1.0*C, and this did co-incide with a very cold month (Feb 1956).

I think winter 1916-17 coincided with a strong La Nina, some say a very strong one and the period December 1916- April 1917 was very cold.

http://www.ccb.ucar.edu/lanina/report/mantua.html

Edited October 17, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Ladyofthestorm]

1999-2000 was quite chilly, I was pregnant with child number 1 so I remember it really well. It alos came off the back of a very wet and unsettled autumn and this is where the similarities end. This hasnt been an active atlantic season at all this year, whereas 1999 was very active. I suspect taking a peak at the synotics for 1999 will confirm this. January was very warm in 2000, got up to 20C in aboyne me thinks around the 17th. But the predominant wind direction was south and SW, that wont happen this time around... no energy in the atlantic.

1998-1999 was also stormy and wild. Snow fell early October, I was out in a feild getting sleet down my neck tending to a sick horse. It then got very active in terms of storms. It snowed again in December and then heavys snows fell in January and Feb. So it wasnt a particularly mild boring winter... in fact far from it. I wouldnt mind a winter like 1998-1999 again. In fact I think it is the kind of winter we will have this year.... except for one thing... it will be colder.. why? Well take a look at the cool water where the NAD used to be off of Greenland.... High pressure is more likely to readily form over Greenland and we all know what a Greenie High means.

However I do think we need to take into account the lag time of a deep solar minimum, something I think forgotten about in many peoples minds. This isnt a normal La Nina, these are not normal conditions in the atlantic, or indeed over Siberia.

I think your beast from the east will not materialise.. I think more Nly incursions of brief natures will suffice. Deep sustained cold is unlikely like last year, but remember that it can get too cols to snow. It did here last year and we ended up with ice rain instead.

[Gavin P]

The thing you have to remember about those late 90's winters is that whilst it was indeed a a strong La Nina period, thats where the similarity ends. Eveything else was very differant, for instance the PDO was solidly in its warm phase. The Atlantic was quite a bit cooler than now, having just started the warm AMO period. The solar cycle was becoming extremely intense, etc...

To my mind, many of the other elements now point much more to a 1950's situation than a 1990's situation....

As far as the NW piece in the Star goes, sounds rather like the winter of 96-97 to me. Very dry. Cold start. Mild February.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am getting very worried about the strong La Nina we have developing at the moment - look at recent strong La Nina winters - and how mild they have been - 2007-08, 1999-2000, 1998-99, and the 1988-89 disaster.

I cannot find any ENSO data pre 1950, but out of all the strong La Ninas since 1950 that have had a mean below -1.5*C, all have co-incided with mild winters, with the only exception being 1955-56, where La Nina weakened significantly in the early winter to about -1.0*C, and this did co-incide with a very cold month (Feb 1956).

Last winter was actually the first strong El Nino that I could find in the records that has co-incided with a cold winter; out of all the other El Ninos that got above +1.5*C as a mean, prior to 2009-10 not one of these co-incided with a cold winter, though one did co-incide with a cold and fairly snowy month (Feb 1983).

Many thought that last year's El Nino would wreck the winter, but it turned out quite the opposite to many winters in the 1990s and 2000s. What are other's thoughts on La Nina and the forthcoming winter?

Over the past 100 years the effect of El Nino and La Nina in relation to cold, average and mild winters actually 'averages' out to no real bias. This begs the question why? I am not fearing this La Nina like I didn't last year's El Nino. ENSO sets a certain pattern but not exactly where that pattern places itself as other factors come into play.

I agree with GP and Netweather with the cold start...but that's all at this stage.

I believe the winter LRF by Netweather is due out very soon, I can't make that call yet as I am very wary of Feb, like last year, which I called wrong and updated in early Jan to a more accurate picture.

BFTP

Edited October 17, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[cooling climate]

I think winter 1916-17 coincided with a strong La Nina, some say a very strong one and the period December 1916- April 1917 was very cold.

http://www.ccb.ucar....ort/mantua.html

The winter of 1916/17 was as you say very cold but oddly enough when you look through

the archive synoptic charts of that winter it looks anything but cold.

Scratch that, I don't know what I had been looking at before but it obviously

was not the 1916/17 winter synoptic charts.

Edited October 17, 2010 by cooling climate

[Ladyofthestorm]

Ive just been looking at the table of moderate La Nina events

1983-84 was one fo the biggest blizzards to ever hit the north, electricty of for days, 80mph Nly winds, winter started early December brief mild spell christmas and then came January and it was bloomin terriifying.

So roll on the La Nina!

Mt Data please take a look at the synopics week commencing the 1st of January 1984, and see what happened. It was the best blizzard I have ever lived through.

Edited October 17, 2010 by Ladyofthestorm