Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think winter 1916-17 coincided with a strong La Nina, some say a very strong one and the period December 1916- April 1917 was very cold.

http://www.ccb.ucar.edu/lanina/report/mantua.html

Many thanks Kevin. I could not find any website containing ENSO records earlier than 1950. A question of mine now is that are there any ENSO records for the late part of the 1800s, as this period brought a number of very cold winter spells, and did any of these co-incide with El Nino / La Nina?

Also was last winter, 2009-10, the first strong El Nino to co-incide with a UK winter that was cold overall? Last winter proved that, although on average past records show that strong El Ninos increase the chances of average to mild conditions in the winter, getting a cold winter in a strong El Nino year is by no means impossible. I know that in a previous strong El Nino winter, Feb 1983 was cold, but not the rest of the winter.

[summer blizzard]

MEI + AO

2008 oct

MEI +QBO

1961 >>>

1971 sep

1975 oct

1978 sep

PDO + MEI + QBO

1961

1975

Having just taken a look at the latest PDO anologues, the signal from years like 1961 and 1975 has strengthened, this lead to the winters of 1962 and 1976, the only signal there being that they both had a slightly above average February.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mt Data please take a look at the synopics week commencing the 1st of January 1984, and see what happened. It was the best blizzard I have ever lived through.

Lady

This'll be your storm, but you had another similar one around 16th too.

BFTP

Edited October 17, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowyowl9]

I was tempted to post that chart,but it is one of most talked about cold spells on this site was January 1984..

The north would be in snowy/blizzard heaven,nothing somewhere near so good for the south,as it`s a westerly/SW-ly.

[Glacier Point]

I like 1975/6 as an analogue quite a lot, particularly in terms of the pressure anomalies associated with it and the state of the polar vortex.

W/r/t the recent press articles, bear in mind that the media will tend to run with a particular forecast angle. I would not overlook the fact that we have decided to spefically focus on precipitation angle.

[Guest harshwinter09]

So basically GP, a very dry winter looks plausible given that those winters caused drought problems in Britain?

In summary, cold and dry with little in the way of snow?

[blitzen]

Ive just been looking at the table of moderate La Nina events

1983-84 was one fo the biggest blizzards to ever hit the north, electricty of for days, 80mph Nly winds, winter started early December brief mild spell christmas and then came January and it was bloomin terriifying.

So roll on the La Nina!

Mt Data please take a look at the synopics week commencing the 1st of January 1984, and see what happened. It was the best blizzard I have ever lived through.

You're right there LOTS. In my opinion, there hasn't been one winter that has come close, (including last year) since 1984. This is my favourite winter to date. It snowed every day here in January of that year. JCBs were having to clear the snow from our streets and pavements and dump it elsewhere. The snow that year was up to my hips!

[beng]

I don't think similar synoptic conditions of 75/76 would be particularly cold either this winter - should that happen given the state of the AMO (i.e. very warm North Atlantic) - at least down here in the South anyway. I totally agree though that with a strong La Nina, we ought to see a strong Northern jet stream and a very weak Southern jet; it's not normally a good signal for cold in the UK (although Scotland, and the far North of England can certainly fair better).

However, the CFS FWIW, keeps showing the negative NAO signal for Dec/Jan in the upper air charts. I'd love to know what's driving its thinking there - and should it be correct then hats off to it. I'm not sure though that the Atlantic SST signal is strong enough to override what the pacific will be throwing at it this year.

The Chinese model is also cold too and this also had a strong performance with last winter.

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2010/CS201012_201102GLT850L2.GIF

Right now, although it pains me to say and although there's a couple of models going cold, I'd back a mildish winter for my region - with better chances for cold the further North you go.

Edited October 17, 2010 by beng

[towbar0]

Well, I'm kind of surprised a severe winter is favourite. Apart from the run of hot summers earlier in the decade I can't see similar just because it was so cold last year. I will say however I have more holly-berries this year than ever before. Some of it will depend on how successful the sparrowhawk is at thinning out the finch population!

Oh and I forgot. I have just ordered a new weather station so there will be no snow...

[Glacier Point]

... I think you may be closer to the cold (relative) air Ben compared to northern parts which will be closer to that big fat high in the Atlantic.

I think that the CFS is signalling a neutral NAO at present and its worth noting that a slight southward correction of the blocking signal would be neutral / positive NAO. The December and early January output strikes me as being lead by a tropical signal, similar to what we have seen over the last 10 days or so. FWIW the CFS modelling for February looks rick solid given the way the stratosphere will likely be in January and I suspect polar westerlies may well be stirred.

Well, I'm kind of surprised a severe winter is favourite. Apart from the run of hot summers earlier in the decade I can't see similar just because it was so cold last year. I will say however I have more holly-berries this year than ever before. Some of it will depend on how successful the sparrowhawk is at thinning out the finch population!

Oh and I forgot. I have just ordered a new weather station so there will be no snow...

I wouldn't say a severe winter was favourite, particularly with regard to a potentially neutral / positve NAO and +AO.

[Snowstorm1]

This night keeps getting better :') First the snow potential has diminshed for places south of scotland and now GP who I highly regard as do many on this site thinks this winter isnt looking particulary favourable. But I will stick by LRF as I still think its on the right path and as we know were all talking about the weather and it will do what it wants we may have ideas of whats going to happen based on the conditions at present and what is forecasted but nobody can 100% say what will happen apart from mother nature so im going to stay positive as Ive been on this forum many years and know how the weather can play out.

[towbar0]

... I think you may be closer to the cold (relative) air Ben compared to northern parts which will be closer to that big fat high in the Atlantic.

I think that the CFS is signalling a neutral NAO at present and its worth noting that a slight southward correction of the blocking signal would be neutral / positive NAO. The December and early January output strikes me as being lead by a tropical signal, similar to what we have seen over the last 10 days or so. FWIW the CFS modelling for February looks rick solid given the way the stratosphere will likely be in January and I suspect polar westerlies may well be stirred.

I wouldn't say a severe winter was favourite, particularly with regard to a potentially neutral / positve NAO and +AO.

Good point. I was looking back a few pages. Holly-berries still give me hope though...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Last winter was not a real surprise and IMO cold [not severe] is favourite not because of last winter but because of a cycle change back in Feb 07. I have indicated that I think folk should think 08/09 rather than 09/10 for this winter. Winter 08/09 was cold/had good cold spells despite there being no real northern blocking so folk shouldn't get too hung up on that either. A southerly displaced jet or amplified jet will be more than suffice.

Look at this current set up folks, read posts more deeply and you may see the woods through the trees....hint hint for winter.

BFTP

Edited October 17, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[DAVID SNOW]

... I think you may be closer to the cold (relative) air Ben compared to northern parts which will be closer to that big fat high in the Atlantic.

I think that the CFS is signalling a neutral NAO at present and its worth noting that a slight southward correction of the blocking signal would be neutral / positive NAO. The December and early January output strikes me as being lead by a tropical signal, similar to what we have seen over the last 10 days or so. FWIW the CFS modelling for February looks rick solid given the way the stratosphere will likely be in January and I suspect polar westerlies may well be stirred.

I wouldn't say a severe winter was favourite, particularly with regard to a potentially neutral / positve NAO and +AO.

Lows running up the channel with a bitter South East wind it is then........

Nice

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This night keeps getting better :') First the snow potential has diminshed for places south of scotland and now GP who I highly regard as do many on this site thinks this winter isnt looking particulary favourable.

The Netweather LRF is done by GP...so don't get despondent!!

BFTP

[Snowstorm1]

The Netweather LRF is done by GP...so don't get despondent!!

BFTP

I wont im only young but Ive been on this forum long enough to know anything can happen this winter from this range Are you and Roger teaming up for another LRF this year? I really enjoy your thoughts and rogers on the winter coming up and if you and roger are is there any date been set or a rough guide to the date when its released?

Edited October 17, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I wont im only young but Ive been on this forum long enough to know anything can happen this winter from this range Are you and Roger teaming up for another LRF this year? I really enjoy your thoughts and rogers on the winter coming up and if you and roger are is there any date been set or a rough guide to the date when its released?

I'll be in touch with Roger 1st week of Nov. Around mid Nov as a call.

BFTP

[Snowstorm1]

I'll be in touch with Roger 1st week of Nov. Around mid Nov as a call.

BFTP

Thankyou for the quick reply and Im glad to hear you and roger are doing it this year:)

[beng]

... I think you may be closer to the cold (relative) air Ben compared to northern parts which will be closer to that big fat high in the Atlantic.

I think that the CFS is signalling a neutral NAO at present and its worth noting that a slight southward correction of the blocking signal would be neutral / positive NAO. The December and early January output strikes me as being lead by a tropical signal, similar to what we have seen over the last 10 days or so. FWIW the CFS modelling for February looks rick solid given the way the stratosphere will likely be in January and I suspect polar westerlies may well be stirred.

I wouldn't say a severe winter was favourite, particularly with regard to a potentially neutral / positve NAO and +AO.

Hi GP - Thanks for the feedback - always interesting to here your thoughts. The CFS charts look quite good in the Dec-Jan period - but maybe averages neutral once you take Feb into account?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

I have visions of a strong, zonal northern arm of the jet running through or just to the south of the UK - which is why I was thinking the North would be favoured for the cold - but it sounds like you're going for mid latitude blocking with a continental influence into South Eastern areas - which of course explains the hints about precipitation. I therefore expect lots of moans from some quarters in the model thread about the blinking Euro High - and needing a pattern reset.

[beng]

I wont im only young but Ive been on this forum long enough to know anything can happen this winter from this range

Exactly - there are some knowledgeable people on these forums who do a wonderful job with their forecasts, but it's a chaotic system and no one will ever be right 100% (or even 90% IMO) of the time when it comes to seasonal forecasting in the UK.

Here's a good link to keep our eyes on as we move through Nov. If the La Nina is going to do its worst and create a very cold stratosphere and hence a strong polar vortex, then we'll see a noticeable cooling appear here. First signs of a cooling are just showing up now, but nothing too unusual yet.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

[chionomaniac]

Exactly - there are some knowledgeable people on these forums who do a wonderful job with their forecasts, but it's a chaotic system and no one will ever be right 100% (or even 90% IMO) of the time when it comes to seasonal forecasting in the UK.

Here's a good link to keep our eyes on as we move through Nov. If the La Nina is going to do its worst and create a very cold stratosphere and hence a strong polar vortex, then we'll see a noticeable cooling appear here. First signs of a cooling are just showing up now, but nothing too unusual yet.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

Yes Ben, nothing unusual yet, but it is worth keeping an eye on the tropical stratosphere temps as well.

The temperatures here are a lot warmer than last year which will increase the temperature gradient between the NP and tropical stratosphere.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Exactly - there are some knowledgeable people on these forums who do a wonderful job with their forecasts, but it's a chaotic system and no one will ever be right 100% (or even 90% IMO) of the time when it comes to seasonal forecasting in the UK.

Here's a good link to keep our eyes on as we move through Nov. If the La Nina is going to do its worst and create a very cold stratosphere and hence a strong polar vortex, then we'll see a noticeable cooling appear here. First signs of a cooling are just showing up now, but nothing too unusual yet.

http://www.cpc.ncep....OND_NH_2010.gif

The the state and temperature of the stratosphere is definitely something to watch in the coming months as last years consistantly (yet not spectacularly) warm polar stratosphere through November can be argued to be a major factor as to what brought the cold, or at least the northerly blocking, in mid December.

I'm hoping Chiono will start up a similar thread for this season as it made for very interesting, educating reading through the autumn and winter last year, with his efforts much appreciated by many on this forum including myself.

What I was also reminded of is what is happening in terms of Ozone pooling. GP mentioned this on several occasions last winter and commented that it was somewhat indicative of where, and to what strength, northerly blocking might set-up. I seem to remember this was also linked to stratospheric warming?

Yes Ben, nothing unusual yet, but it is worth keeping an eye on the tropical stratosphere temps as well.

The temperatures here are a lot warmer than last year which will increase the temperature gradient between the NP and tropical stratosphere.

:lol: seems I spoke to soon!

[chionomaniac]

The the state and temperature of the stratosphere is definitely something to watch in the coming months as last years consistantly (yet not spectacularly) warm polar stratosphere through November can be argued to be a major factor as to what brought the cold, or at least the northerly blocking, in mid December.

I'm hoping Chiono will start up a similar thread for this season as it made for very interesting, educating reading through the autumn and winter last year, with his efforts much appreciated by many on this forum including myself.

What I was also reminded of is what is happening in terms of Ozone pooling. GP mentioned this on several occasions last winter and commented that it was somewhat indicative of where, and to what strength, northerly blocking might set-up. I seem to remember this was also linked to stratospheric warming?

:lol: seems I spoke to soon!

Thanks and I will be opening a thread at the start of November.

[Cheese Rice]

My Forecast

Autumn- After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the season more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas. Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south. 

Winter- Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland/N.Ireland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East. Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and slightly below average South of Scotland, significantly so the further south and east.

Forecast issued: 28th July

So far so good, I'm pretty confident this forecast will go as planned. 

Edited October 17, 2010 by 10123

[Stormyking]

My Forecast

Autumn- After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the season more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas. Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter- Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland/N.Ireland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East. Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and slightly below average South of Scotland, significantly so the further south and east.

Forecast issued: 28th July

So far so good, I'm pretty confident this forecast will go as planned.

I also reckon it will be a similar winter to 2008/2009, though I reckon December will be a cold one especially 2nd half., then an average January with some cold spells with snow and some Atlantic Influenced weather. February I reckon will start Mildish but 2nd hald of february in the beginning of march will see 3/4 very cold spells with some big snowfall