Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[summer blizzard]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

Latest AMO data which hass an inverse correlation with the NAO during winter (so a +AMO leads to -NAO) gives the following anologues...

2009

2006

2005

2004

2002

1999

1998

1995

1987

1980

1961

1960

1952

1951

1950

Clearly more fuel to the 1961 anologue fire!

[camiscool]

I think this winter will be like the 1961

[summer blizzard]

MEI + AO

2008 oct

MEI +QBO

1961 >>>

1971 sep

1975 oct

1978 sep

PDO + MEI + QBO

1961

1975

AMO + PDO + MEI + QBO

1961

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What generally dry and cold/very cold can produce

1986 Very cold (-1.1C CET), with frequent light snowfalls. The second coldest February of the century (after 1947), and third coldest month. The month was similar to January 1963 in being a completely blocked month, with a high centred over north Russia bringing some very cold air east. Winds were easterly for 23 days, and were of virtual calm for the remaining days. Easterly winds had already set in by the end of January. Snow cover was widespread in the east, where it was very dull: Cupar (Fife) registered only 41 hours sunshine all month. In the west it was very dry and sunny (144 hours sunshine on Anglesey; with no measurable rain at all in some western coastal sites). The lowest temperature was at Grantown-on-Spey, where it reached -21.2C on the 27th. The lowest temperature around Birmingham was -11.0C, at Elmdon, on the 21st, and the highest, just 3.8C on the 28th. Freezing rain in the north Midlands. Up to 50 mm of glaze was recorded on broken power lines at Buxton on the 2nd. Widdybank Fell, at 513 m above sea level in County Durham, remained beneath freezing all month, and had a total of 32 consecutive days beneath zero - probably a record for a habited area. This was our last exceptionally cold month (average beneath zero). I remember our toilet freezing and a six inch icicle growing out of the cistern overflow. I reckon this is the last time I experienced a temperature beneath -10C. The cold persisted into early March. For some reason I find that February 1986 is often "the forgotten month" when one talks about extreme winters in Britain. Perhaps this is because there wasn't any widespread serious disruption due to heavy snow over a wide area, perhaps because there weren't any record-breaking low temperatures, and perhaps because the rest of the winter was unexceptional. Indeed, some parts of the country had no snow at all. Nevertheless, it was, and remains, the coldest month since January 1963.

So don't be too concerned about dry...not that this is forecast of course.

BFTP

[johnholmes]

your comment about Valley is something I know from first hand but I question your view about no widespread snowfall?

Was there not an instance, or have I got the wrong year, when most of eastern, souther and southeastern England along with London had a fairly reasonable 'blizzard'.? If I have the correct year I remember looking down on Paddington, or Waterloo station, I forget which, and seeing almost no trains moving in or out from late morning, then having to walk most of the way to a colleagues house on the outskirts of Reading after the local bus could get no further?

[camiscool]

Loved that snow

Event last year in the south east first proper snow!

[MR EXTREMES]

your comment about Valley is something I know from first hand but I question your view about no widespread snowfall?

Was there not an instance, or have I got the wrong year, when most of eastern, souther and southeastern England along with London had a fairly reasonable 'blizzard'.? If I have the correct year I remember looking down on Paddington, or Waterloo station, I forget which, and seeing almost no trains moving in or out from late morning, then having to walk most of the way to a colleagues house on the outskirts of Reading after the local bus could get no further?

yep blizzard there was john i remember that very well and i also remember the freezing pipes.

[Thundery wintry showers]

BFTP has just copied and pasted from Trevor Harley's site (a bit of plagiarism creeping in?):

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1986_weather.htm

I can't be sure of what happened in February 1986 blizzards-wise but I'm sure south-east England was heavily hit at times during easterly outbreaks in January & February 1985 and in January 1987. The snowiest phase of February 1986 may have been towards the end of the first week when the easterly flow turned unstable.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860206.gif

[Weather-history]

Clearly more fuel to the 1961 anologue fire!

That winter had a very cold second half to December, stormy January/February phase followed by the coldest March of the 20th century.

[stewfox]

For some reason I find that February 1986 is often "the forgotten month" when one talks about extreme winters in Britain. Perhaps this is because there wasn't any widespread serious disruption due to heavy snow over a wide area, perhaps because there weren't any record-breaking low temperatures, and perhaps because the rest of the winter was unexceptional. Indeed, some parts of the country had no snow at all. Nevertheless, it was, and remains, the coldest month since January 1963.

So don't be too concerned about dry...not that this is forecast of course.

BFTP

Feb 86 is a month I will always remember my 21st Birthday to boot.

Jan 79, Dec 81, Jan 82 Feb 86, Jan 87 Jan 2010 come to mind

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP has just copied and pasted from Trevor Harley's site (a bit of plagiarism creeping in?):

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1986_weather.htm

I can't be sure of what happened in February 1986 blizzards-wise but I'm sure south-east England was heavily hit at times during easterly outbreaks in January & February 1985 and in January 1987. The snowiest phase of February 1986 may have been towards the end of the first week when the easterly flow turned unstable.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860206.gif

It is a cut and paste, no plagiarism as not my words at all and not meant to be read as such.

My words, I lived in Swansea at the time, we had a good amount of snow before the deep freeze set in. It stayed dry for most of Feb but the snow lay on the ground for whole of Feb. I remenber Philip EDEN writing that the West are probably wondering what all the fuss was about...snow showers bringing good accumulations to the E /SE but West very dry...but bitterly cold.

BFTP

[Guest]

It is a cut and paste, no plagiarism as not my words at all and not meant to be read as such.

BFTP

You should have posted a link then and put the quote in commas or in a

box

. Pretty poor show BFTP. You would surely pull others up if they did the same??

[Optimus Prime]

Actually that has been posted MANY MANY MANY times before, it's clearly and obviously not something BLAST FROM THE PAST typed out and if you frequent this board often enough you should really have picked up on that. USE your brain!

[johnholmes]

OTT OP and uncalled for.

If BFTP, or anyone else, quotes from somewhere else the polite and correct thing to do is acknowledge that. Nowehere in his post did that occur.

The only reason I got involved is because I travelled to London during the blizzard and spent over 24 hours in the south east, London+Reading.

[jethro]

If you want to avoid copyright issues, it's essential that a link or acknowledgement of source is supplied.

[MR EXTREMES]

If you want to avoid copyright issues, it's essential that a link or acknowledgement of source is supplied.

jethro i dont mean to be rude when i say this but what the hell is going on.

all the winter threads are going bananas it almost like blowtorch winter has been predicted and toys are flying everywhere.

as for BFTP post he contributes so much to every thread i see the nasty spitefull posts being made and the same is flying around in the winter lrf thread totally putting me off.

and i know im guilty of some wrong postings and stuff but i get a ban theres trolls coming out of the woodwork and if it were me behaving like them id be banned its not fair.

infact im fedup with the lack of respect being shown to some of the regular posters and excellent forecaster ie GP.

Edited October 19, 2010 by badboy657

[andy_leics22]

infact im fedup with the lack of respect being shown to some of the regular posters and excellent forecaster ie GP.

To be honest, I think the people that are having a dig at GP are a very small minority so i wouldn't worry.

GP knows many people on here sing his praises, every Winter he gets praise and thanks and rightly so.

My opinion is that we shouldn't read the Winter forecast and think that it will DEFINITELY happen. What we should do is read the forecast, take onboard what GP is predicting and what the forecasting methods at his disposal are predicting and see how it pans out. If it turns out to be more right than wrong then that's great, if it turns out to be more wrong than right then it doesn't matter. It takes a big man to stick his neck out and make a forecast for 1-4 months ahead, I certainly couldn't do it.

[camiscool]

Let's just forget about this ^ there shouldn't be this much arguing in these forums.

[MP-R]

Moving away from arguments, wouldn't it be good if we could get something like this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960220.gif

Temperatures around 0C by day and -3C by night with a biting wind and snow showers. This is how a high to the NW can work in our favour. I personally don't remember this day as I was too young but old diaries of ours say there was 4cm of snow in Bristol on this day.

[ZONE 51]

I am working on something, what i have done is created my own graph(invented my own) its based on La-Nina/El-Nino events from 1950 - 2003 winters, with C.E.Ts and the 3months of the season, the cets are in ranges or sections ex: 1.0-1.9 il scan it on at wkend or when done, what stands out most is the la-ninas from 50-75 with the odd year as el-nino, its very interesting.

[Weather-history]

blowtorch winter

Not directed at the person I have quoted but in general terms.

Why oh why, do the winter season bring out such idiotic terms that try to be clever but infact expose short comings?

There's faux or artifical cold. There's nothing faux about it, it is cold regardless whether its shallow or deep airmass cold. As for artifical that just about takes the biscuit, an inversion is a natural process, there is nothing artifical about it.

Blowtorch: the appropriate application for this term if it is to be used, should be during a summer heatwave such as August 1990 or 2003. After all, a blowtorch is hot!!

Hairdryer: To describe a broad SWly airstream. I'm sure the people of Cumbria, North west Wales etc will not agree with this term as they total the inches of rainfall that can accompany such airstreams.

Then there is the misuse of the term "blizzard", Paul Simons in his Times Weather Eye column the other day misused it claiming there were blizzards in southern England back in October 2008. They weren't! Over 90% of reports claiming we have a whiteout or blizzard, ain't!

Rant over

Edited October 19, 2010 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

agree totally Kevin

[Terminal Moraine]

agree totally Kevin

And so do I, particularly the last paragraph concerning blizzards. One of the most over-used, and under experienced, terms on this forum.

[MR EXTREMES]

To be honest, I think the people that are having a dig at GP are a very small minority so i wouldn't worry.

GP knows many people on here sing his praises, every Winter he gets praise and thanks and rightly so.

My opinion is that we shouldn't read the Winter forecast and think that it will DEFINITELY happen. What we should do is read the forecast, take onboard what GP is predicting and what the forecasting methods at his disposal are predicting and see how it pans out. If it turns out to be more right than wrong then that's great, if it turns out to be more wrong than right then it doesn't matter. It takes a big man to stick his neck out and make a forecast for 1-4 months ahead, I certainly couldn't do it.

excellent post your right his methods are really pretty impressive:drinks:

Moving away from arguments, wouldn't it be good if we could get something like this:

http://www.wetterzen...00119960220.gif

Temperatures around 0C by day and -3C by night with a biting wind and snow showers. This is how a high to the NW can work in our favour. I personally don't remember this day as I was too young but old diaries of ours say there was 4cm of snow in Bristol on this day.

this year sticks out in my mind wind chill brrr:drinks:

Edited October 19, 2010 by badboy657

[Charltonkerry]

As somebody who does not post to often on here, i totally agree with the posts above. The term faux cold really annoys me, as i would think that i am the only person on here who actually produces the stuff, i design industrial refrigeration plants, capable of holding buildings the size of Wembly stadium at temperature anywhere between -40°C to +20°C, thats artifical (faux) cold. When you consider how much energy i need to use to produce cold temperatures i always find it amazing that mother nature does it. A rough ball park figure to produce a temperature (store)of -25° then for every kw of refrigeration duty required a kw of electrical power is required. Justs goes to show how much energy is stored in the atmosphere?

I will go back to sleep now, i got my rant off my chest. Sorry

Regards

Kerry

Edited October 19, 2010 by Charltonkerry