Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[weathe20]

The chances are now quite high that the SE quarter of the uk including EA are to be the hardest hit by cold this winter, we cant under estimate the potential we have in the coming set up, we dont need atlantic battle situations in these parts to get the snow ,as we have the north sea, dry and very cold with heavy snow showers, severe frosts, lying snow ,its the winter to come here.

and for the rest of Britain, its likely to be a cold winter anyway, with snow, but very dry for many, it dont mean no snow!

this winter an event for dry cold and huge snow showers for some, and those battle ground set ups shall come!

Can you explain what you mean by the 'coming setup', have i missed something?

[camiscool]

Snow risk for my area is 21% for Monday. It will all be gone by tommorow

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20101021/00/183/prectypeuktopo.png.

Why is this chart so crazy??

[Methuselah]

Just out of curiosity is anyone still wagering that it will be a mild winter?

Well, I wouldn't bet against it...

[Radiating Dendrite]

Can you explain what you mean by the 'coming setup', have i missed something?

I think he means an easterly dominated set up.

We shall see, I honestly think it will be a real mixed bag this winter.

[TEITS]

Yep, very possible for the day or few days near Christmas (or any few days throughout), however Easterlies usually will on the whole, influence Eastern Scotland & North East England. I won't doubt the White Christmas possible in the SE and not anywhere else, however I would imagine it would be extremely rare for the SE on a whole to be cooler than everywhere else throughout the whole month, even on average.

camiscool! Do you have an explanation, or is it pure fun!

I will be posting my Winter Forecast tonight.

Actually its locations such as E Anglia/SE who can bear the brunt of an E,ly although this depends on the exact positioning of the pressure systems that bring the E,ly. The reason why SE/E Anglia can experience the coldest temps is because of the shorter fetch across the North Sea compared to E Scotland/NE England. When the models prog an E,ly in winter its often Kent that has the lowest upper temps. However in saying this because of the longer sea fetch around E Scotland/NE England this can result in heavier snowfalls. Like I say its perfectly possible that E Scotland/NE England are experiencing a lovely calm day with light winds and plenty of sunshine whilst E Anglia/SE are experiencing prolonged heavy snow showers. This would occur if the HP thats bringing the E,ly is centred near Scotland preventing convection from occuring in this area.

Edited October 21, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Isolated Frost]

Yey! Building it up now, trucks there and everything! Might be going there in December, so great to see the process starting!

[richardc1983]

Yey! Building it up now, trucks there and everything! Might be going there in December, so great to see the process starting!

Wow, I want to live there!

[camiscool]

http://www.netweathe...typeuktopo.png. Why is this chart so crazy??

[weathe20]

I think he means an easterly dominated set up.

We shall see, I honestly think it will be a real mixed bag this winter.

Ah I see. Last winter wasn't easterly dominated though was it? I think we came close to a really good easterly but never really got it.

Edited October 21, 2010 by weathe20

[The watcher]

Ah I see. Last winter wasn't easterly dominated though was it? I think we came close to a really good easterly but never really got it.

Last winter seen quite a long spell of NEasterlies though, we seemed to have that bouncing effect of HP moving between here and Greenland and Scandi.

[weathe20]

Last winter seen quite a long spell of NEasterlies though, we seemed to have that bouncing effect of HP moving between here and Greenland and Scandi.

Yes thats what I thought. I would take a mild winter with a couple of proper Feb 91 Beasterlys.

Dont think last winter we got a true easterly once, all NE.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Wow, I want to live there!

My idea of heaven

Northerlies are the only direction that brings us snow and the last time we had a true Nly like that was Feb/ March 2006

[snowlover2009]

The chances are now quite high that the SE quarter of the uk including EA are to be the hardest hit by cold this winter, we cant under estimate the potential we have in the coming set up, we dont need atlantic battle situations in these parts to get the snow ,as we have the north sea, dry and very cold with heavy snow showers, severe frosts, lying snow ,its the winter to come here.

and for the rest of Britain, its likely to be a cold winter anyway, with snow, but very dry for many, it dont mean no snow!

this winter an event for dry cold and huge snow showers for some, and those battle ground set ups shall come!

wouldnt expect anything less from someone from south east and forecasting the most snow for his own area,this was said a lot of time last winter, but wasn't that good. Also i don't think you are taking in all the factors it is like you have just looked at net weather long range forecast, seen the cold anomaly over the southeast and though yep this is what is going to happen or you want to happen because you live there. If anything this winter will probably have more northerlies lows from the north giving spells of snow like the one on jan 5th.

[camiscool]

He is not bias he just has reasons for the south east. We could easily say scotland will be colder. And does anyone have an explanation for the GFS charts?

[snowlover2009]

He is not bias he just has reasons for the south east. We could easily say scotland will be colder. And does anyone have an explanation for the GFS charts?

once again, another south eastern member defending him. In many times or cases when all the cold is forecast for the south east it either never happens or the rest of the country is just as cold, I don't think they will be that lucky. he reasons the south east because he is in the south east.Also if the southeast was to be worst affected then that means there is a good chance they will be lucky to get the snow, it is not going to be too north nor too south, just right where he wants it ,over the south east. We all know it won't be this simple.

Edited October 21, 2010 by snowlover2009

[jethro]

once again, another south eastern member defending him. In many times or cases when all the cold is forecast for the south east it either never happens or the rest of the country is just as cold, I don't think they will be that lucky. he reasons the south east because he is in the south east.Also if the southeast was to be worst affected then that means there is a good chance they will be lucky to get the snow, it is not going to be too north nor too south, just right where he wants it ,over the south east. We all know it won't be this simple.

But aren't quite a few forecasts going for a SE dominated Winter? I'm far from being a model/weather guru but I'm pretty sure, from an historical perspective, dry, cold Winters have been as a result of mostly E/SE weather patterns. A dry, cold Winter is forecast.

Why is it more likely that this Winter will have more Northerlies?

[camiscool]

I'm not defending him. I can easily say Scotland will have the best of the snow.

[Radiating Dendrite]

But aren't quite a few forecasts going for a SE dominated Winter? I'm far from being a model/weather guru but I'm pretty sure, from an historical perspective, dry, cold Winters have been as a result of mostly E/SE weather patterns. A dry, cold Winter is forecast.

Why is it more likely that this Winter will have more Northerlies?

From what I understand they are predicting pressure to be high in the mid Atlantic, leading to northerlies with a trough over Scandi.

[The watcher]

From what I understand they are predicting pressure to be high in the mid Atlantic, leading to northerlies with a trough over Scandi.

To me that is a good scenario, because if the Atlantic goes quiet and we do get a Northerly Scenario we could find ourselves with a lovely linked Greenland - Mid Atlantic HP which will take a while to be broken through, a prolonged Northerly straight from the Arctic would be a great, certainly for Scotland, Northern England and myself. More Southern areas would benefit through and fronts that push through and maybe even get setup in a battleground between North and South.

[Radiating Dendrite]

To me that is a good scenario, because if the Atlantic goes quiet and we do get a Northerly Scenario we could find ourselves with a lovely linked Greenland - Mid Atlantic HP which will take a while to be broken through, a prolonged Northerly straight from the Arctic would be a great, certainly for Scotland, Northern England and myself. More Southern areas would benefit through and fronts that push through and maybe even get setup in a battleground between North and South.

I agree with this, a mid Atlantic High getting into a relationship with a Greenie High seems like a pretty good option cold wise.

Northerlies often deliver the goods for all the country with fronts forming and moving down in the northerly flow. As has been previously stated we may see some Atlantic dominated periods, but I do not expect these to last for long periods of time.

As I stated previously, we could be in for a real mix bag of weather this winter. Should be interesting model watching and I would be surprised if we did not get one good dump of snowfall!

[Nick L]

For once I would love a cold winter in the SE

[Thundery wintry showers]

Like I say its perfectly possible that E Scotland/NE England are experiencing a lovely calm day with light winds and plenty of sunshine whilst E Anglia/SE are experiencing prolonged heavy snow showers. This would occur if the HP thats bringing the E,ly is centred near Scotland preventing convection from occuring in this area.

In my experience what usually happens is you get sunshine and snow showers under the cold pool, dry sunny weather where the high pressure is centred, while intervening areas are sunny and dry in the west but dull and dry in the east. But you are certainly right that under many "easterly" scenarios it is the SE that gets the coldest weather.

I agree with this, a mid Atlantic High getting into a relationship with a Greenie High seems like a pretty good option cold wise.

Northerlies often deliver the goods for all the country with fronts forming and moving down in the northerly flow. As has been previously stated we may see some Atlantic dominated periods, but I do not expect these to last for long periods of time.

It all depends on the duration of the northerly- a 36 hour northerly often tends to deliver showers only to windward coasts and hills (or, like the last couple of days, widespread showers occur on the first day, when it isn't cold enough, and then when it does get cold enough showers die back to coasts). But if a northerly sustains for a few days we usually get some kind of trough/frontal activity during the spell resulting in more widespread shower activity coinciding with low temperatures.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Why is it more likely that this Winter will have more Northerlies?

Cooling of SST's mid atlantic will create conditions condusive to allowing High pressure to buld over Greenland and we all though what a Greenie High means!

[PersianPaladin]

Actually its locations such as E Anglia/SE who can bear the brunt of an E,ly although this depends on the exact positioning of the pressure systems that bring the E,ly. The reason why SE/E Anglia can experience the coldest temps is because of the shorter fetch across the North Sea compared to E Scotland/NE England. When the models prog an E,ly in winter its often Kent that has the lowest upper temps. However in saying this because of the longer sea fetch around E Scotland/NE England this can result in heavier snowfalls. Like I say its perfectly possible that E Scotland/NE England are experiencing a lovely calm day with light winds and plenty of sunshine whilst E Anglia/SE are experiencing prolonged heavy snow showers. This would occur if the HP thats bringing the E,ly is centred near Scotland preventing convection from occuring in this area.

I'd say that's an accurate assessment from what I've seen over the years.

[ZONE 51]

1-(wouldnt expect anything less from someone from south east) and forecasting the most snow for his own area,this was said a lot of time last winter, but wasn't that good. Also 2-( i don't think you are taking in all the factors) 3-(it is like you have just looked at net weather long range forecast, seen the cold anomaly over the southeast and thought yep this is what is going to happen or you want to happen because you live there.)

1-Im not bias to any area.

2-Factors? i do understand the data/models, i am taking all cold factors in, the mild ones...well where are they? 0:

3-yep

..im still a fan of yours! 0: