Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[Guest]

Ok your on!

I do wish the regional forums would open up... Ok moderating them all isnt an option but at least open the scottish one, it is actually snowing here!

Our time will come LOTS Not long to go now.

[Ladyofthestorm]

I get a feeling we will see lots of snow this winter. Last winter was really dry and very cold, we didnt see alot of snow at all, just really really hard frosts. So here is hoping this year I can ramp away till my little heart is content.

[Cymro]

As a Welshman, I reckon they should open the Scottish Regional thread, theres enough users to support it and the conditions are right, had this been South eastern event now there would almost certainly be a thread galore covering it.

[weather19]

Joe B:

TUESDAY 11 PM

THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE

EUROPE

In 2003, the fierce heat wave centered in France was replaced by a chilly October, and when winter came, much of Europe was warmer than normal. However the area that was near normal to a bit below was close to where that heat wave was.. and then eastward through southern and southeastern Europe.

This years August heat wave, like 2003, coming off an el nino winter the year before, was over Russia and into central Europe,. October has been cold in much of this area and guess what, the winter will be most fierce from Euro-Russia into the Alps. Russian temps as much as 3C below normal for the winter are possible, 1-2 C below normal westward into the Alps. Most of northwest Europe will be near to a little below normal ( up to 1C below normal) while northern and central Scandinavia Scotland, and Ireland are near or a bit above normal.

Snowfall will be above normal across much of Europe with heaviest in the Alps into Russia, perhaps a bit below normal in northern areas.

To sum up, a severe winter looks to be on table from the Alps into Russia, but winter in Great Britain and Ireland will not be as severe as last year.

Globally. Opposite of last year, the globe will be cooling considerably and temps by Spring should be running near or below the normal. This trend will probably make 2011 the coolest year since the late 90s. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from the 2007 lows, with the summer ice melt season next year probably returning ice to pre 2006 levels

Edited October 20, 2010 by weather19

[Isolated Frost]

Do you think that if we chipped in £5 each, we could abolish the Daily Mail.

'Netweather, which correctly predicted last winter's big freeze, as well as the mixed summer, is forecasting a cold December and a white Christmas.'

Did we?

'But they touched down yesterday at dawn. So crank up your central heating and get out your thermals... because winter is about to bite.'

The Daily Mail on Swans.

[Ladyofthestorm]

They will have snoops on the weather forum, that I have no doubt. lol

Perhaps we should start talking about the BBQ winter we will have and that will confuse them!

Gove a big wave to the daily mail snoop everyone!

[stewfox]

Bill Giles was on BBC Oxford this morning.

Basically confirming what others have said an average winter but the cold in February rather then December. Average in terms of the 1980s I think not mild mush of much of the 1990 2000s

Even he said ‘of course we won’t get as much snow as last winter’, I don’t like that phraseology.

Edited October 20, 2010 by stewfox

[noggin]

Do you think that if we chipped in £5 each, we could abolish the Daily Mail.

NO! :o Good grief, whatever next? I'll have you know that I need my daily dose of this fine paper.

"....abolish the Daily Mail"? Tsk, tsk.

[jennyjane]

Nearly the end of October and I'm back like a lot of us winter forum folk!

Looking forward to sparring with our friend on Gunton Cliff!

And just generally looking forward to the winter discussions.

Hello again everyone

Love

Jenny

x

[summer blizzard]

Bill Giles was on BBC Oxford this morning.

Basically confirming what others have said an average winter but the cold in February rather then December. Average in terms of the 1980s I think not mild mush of much of the 1990 2000s

Even he said ‘of course we won’t get as much snow as last winter’, I don’t like that phraseology.

I think that there is a lot of consensus on a dry winter, and i have not seen many super mild forecasts, which is good, though possibly irrelevant.

Based on available data at this stage (i will release my official winter forecast on December 10th), i would say that December will be very dry and also quite cold, though major cold shots too far east, and that February is actually the month with the best chance of everything coming together, so well below average, however January while dry could see a southerly/westerly influence.

[Birkhill saints]

Hi guys,

jusy woke from my summer slummber and ooh what a fuss. My god i can see snow to the north of me on the tops of highest peaks. Now that,s two weeks earlier than a cold winter??.

Happy winter campers or will we fall flat on our faces in the mud during nov+ dec ? I feel not !!!

[camiscool]

My winter forecast

December : cold with below average temperatures in the south and east. Scotland and northern england will have average or slightly above average temperatures. Periods

of light snowfall for southern uk providing a White Christmas. Hard frost for northern uk and Scotland and snow flurries at times.

[Isolated Frost]

My winter forecast

December : cold with below average temperatures in the south and east. Scotland and northern england will have average or slightly above average temperatures. Periods

of light snowfall for southern uk providing a White Christmas. Hard frost for northern uk and Scotland and snow flurries at times.

Don't you mean 'My December Forecast' don't you mean

Bit of a hopecast, IMO, as in the SE getting colder and snowier weather, I'm not quite sure how that is possible, bit of bias maybe?

Anyway, at this time of year, everything is still pretty much a hopecast!

[camiscool]

Yes December Forecast I am not being bias. Anywhere could have the heaviest snowfall

[Kentish Kiwi]

Don't you mean 'My December Forecast' don't you mean

Bit of a hopecast, IMO, as in the SE getting colder and snowier weather, I'm not quite sure how that is possible, bit of bias maybe?

Anyway, at this time of year, everything is still pretty much a hopecast!

It definitely is possible and happens occasionally (although I'm not saying I agree at all with his forecast as he doesn't actually provide any basis for it... ) .Usually it means some sort of high pressure forming over/slightly to the north of the UK. This can provide the south-east with an easterly flow off the continent on the southern flank of the HP system and the potential for snow-showers off the North Sea, while most of England remains underneath the high pressure proper, lacking a direct feed off the continent, but still ends up cold due to inversion conditions under the high. Scotland can also end up in the mild section in this hypothetical set-up, being on the northern flank of the HP with milder winds from the Atlantic.

[Isolated Frost]

It definitely is possible and happens occasionally (although I'm not saying I agree at all with his forecast as he doesn't actually provide any basis for it... ) .Usually it means some sort of high pressure forming over/slightly to the north of the UK. This can provide the south-east with an easterly flow off the continent on the southern flank of the HP system and the potential for snow-showers off the North Sea, while most of England remains underneath the high pressure proper, lacking a direct feed off the continent, but still ends up cold due to inversion conditions under the high. Scotland can also end up in the mild section in this hypothetical set-up, being on the northern flank of the HP with milder winds from the Atlantic.

Yep, very possible for the day or few days near Christmas (or any few days throughout), however Easterlies usually will on the whole, influence Eastern Scotland & North East England. I won't doubt the White Christmas possible in the SE and not anywhere else, however I would imagine it would be extremely rare for the SE on a whole to be cooler than everywhere else throughout the whole month, even on average.

camiscool! Do you have an explanation, or is it pure fun!

I will be posting my Winter Forecast tonight.

Edited October 20, 2010 by Isolated Frost

[camiscool]

Both

[Optimus Prime]

South East and Southern England average temperature in December 1962 was 2.0c and yet Scotland averaged 2.8c. That's the most notable switcharound in expected conditions I know of.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Just out of curiosity is anyone still wagering that it will be a mild winter?

[The watcher]

Just out of curiosity is anyone still wagering that it will be a mild winter?

I might be the black sheep and actually go for that.....though not terribly mild.

I will be waiting however a little longer to just see how this Strong La Nina interacts with the teleconnections.

[Isolated Frost]

Wow!

Maybe a while away, but looking a tad nippy in the Highlands!

[johncoolj]

Wow!

Maybe a while away, but looking a tad nippy in the Highlands!

i doubt it will be that cold

[ZONE 51]

The chances are now quite high that the SE quarter of the uk including EA are to be the hardest hit by cold this winter, we cant under estimate the potential we have in the coming set up, we dont need atlantic battle situations in these parts to get the snow ,as we have the north sea, dry and very cold with heavy snow showers, severe frosts, lying snow ,its the winter to come here.

and for the rest of Britain, its likely to be a cold winter anyway, with snow, but very dry for many, it dont mean no snow!

this winter an event for dry cold and huge snow showers for some, and those battle ground set ups shall come!

[Cymro]

The chances are now quite high that the SE quarter of the uk including EA are to be the hardest hit by cold this winter, we cant under estimate the potential we have in the coming set up, we dont need atlantic battle situations in these parts to get the snow ,as we have the north sea, dry and very cold with heavy snow showers, severe frosts, lying snow ,its the winter to come here.

and for the rest of Britain, its likely to be a cold winter anyway, with snow, but very dry for many, it dont mean no snow!

this winter an event for dry cold and huge snow showers for some, and those battle ground set ups shall come!

Not in the slightest biased are we

[artfularshavin]

haha well perhaps he is...

but i am with that view also.due to the winds coming from a east/southeast direction lot of the time,especially through december. again temps will go somthing like this....

NOV O.8 BELOW

DEC 2.5 BELOW

JAN 1.8 BELOW

FEB 1.5 BELOW

COLD!!!!!!!!!