Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[camiscool]

what :S?

[The watcher]

There are differing opinions on "faux cold" because some believe it's exactly that...false. I always tend to think of the weather as what we experience on the ground, with what ever is happening with upper temperatures irrelevant. There are others who even though enjoy the cold, don't like anticyclonic weather due to the fact temperatures on the ground may be cold, but go up a couple of thousand feet and temperatures are not "ideal".

That would be the snow fanatics then...

[Isolated Frost]

Well, I'd love a cold, dry winter with a few snow showers interspersed. I think the forecast is excellent and very well reasoned, I think this is the one I'm trusting for now. Not any of that PWS garbage

[nick sussex]

There are differing opinions on "faux cold" because some believe it's exactly that...false. I always tend to think of the weather as what we experience on the ground, with what ever is happening with upper temperatures irrelevant. There are others who even though enjoy the cold, don't like anticyclonic weather due to the fact temperatures on the ground may be cold, but go up a couple of thousand feet and temperatures are not "ideal".

I agree with you, the general public just go with if its cold or not, I think most in here would find it okay as long as theres been some snow and the cold clear high pressure stayed around to preserve it, in previous winters the faux cold has been as good as it got before the high sunk to be replaced by mild Atlantic mush!

[glasgow-guy]

so does the netweather team agree with what Joe B, was saying over at accuweather that where it was warmest in the summer those areas of Europe are likely to see the coldest weather this winter ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a very inspiring winter prognosis there by Stewart. Anticyclonic cold is certainly not my cup of tea as even though it may be cold at ground level, upper air temps are not cold enough to support snow. What would be better is if the trough to the east could position itself slightly further west with the block in the Atlantic situated slightly further north and west. This would introduce some colder uppers and provide the instability for snow to fall.

I do think the period from the middle of December to the middle of January will be the coldest of the winter.

[AderynCoch]

one of the headline makers as the season progresses could well be the dryness with all three months expected to have below average precipitation widely across the country. NOT GOOD.

Drier in winter usually correlates with colder (though not always).

Edited October 18, 2010 by AderynCoch

[The watcher]

Not a very inspiring winter prognosis there by Stewart. Anticyclonic cold is certainly not my cup of tea as even though it may be cold at ground level, upper air temps are not cold enough to support snow. What would be better is if the trough to the east could position itself slightly further west with the block in the Atlantic situated slightly further north and west. This would introduce some colder uppers and provide the instability for snow to fall.

I do think the period from the middle of December to the middle of January will be the coldest of the winter.

Well if we do consider that the HP to the w/sw is dominant, it wouldn't take much movement to produce a snowy outbreak and I'm quite positive we'll see a good deal of Northerly outbreaks through December because of its situ. So it's not like the ingredients aren't available.

[nick sussex]

so does the netweather team agree with what Joe B, was saying over at accuweather that where it was warmest in the summer those areas of Europe are likely to see the coldest weather this winter ?

I think perhaps he might be alluding to what the general set up would be. High pressure to the west or nw of the UK will often be accompanied by low pressure further east so troughing developing over Central Europe tends to pull in colder east to ne flows on its southern flank accompanied by lower heights in southern Europe also, that would then tie in with the below average temps forecast across France and Iberia.

[johnholmes]

We want so proper cold?!!!

what we want and what we get, in life and with the weather can often be two different things, so best live with it mate?

[johncoolj]

Netweather was wrong with last years forcast as most people where so id take this one with a pinch of salt does not take much skill to predict a drier then normal winter it been dry here in Ireland Dublin for past year has been 80 percent less rain

also what netweather is saying is way diffrent to joes b winter update

[MP-R]

Not a very inspiring winter prognosis there by Stewart. Anticyclonic cold is certainly not my cup of tea as even though it may be cold at ground level, upper air temps are not cold enough to support snow. What would be better is if the trough to the east could position itself slightly further west with the block in the Atlantic situated slightly further north and west. This would introduce some colder uppers and provide the instability for snow to fall.

I do think the period from the middle of December to the middle of January will be the coldest of the winter.

I agree with this post. It's nice in moderation but the spell from 24th Dec 08 - 10th Jan 09 dragged a bit and was followed by milder Atlantic weather.

Your second point I also agree with and I would have thought this is the best time for any lying snow to last with coldest temperatures and minimum sunlight. Even the sun in early Feb 09 was enough to melt over half a covering of snow.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Michael Prys-Roberts

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just had a trawl through the old winter thread, here are what my thoughts were on the 8th September for the upcoming winter, obviously some things have changed since then, I should be updating my thoughts sometime in the next 3 weeks:

Preliminary Winter Thoughts 2010/2011

Here are my preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter as I promised last month. Factors affecting weather forecast from the period 01.12.2010- 28.02.2011 are as follows:

• State of the NAO
• The current La Nina
• QBO
• Continued low solar activity
• Current North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
• Potential SSW events

Looking at the current long range model output for the period in question sheds little certainty on what the likely winter patterns will be; however at present there is a consistent signal for the winter to open on a below average note in terms of temperatures. This can be misleading however as the below average temperatures could quite easily be as a result of the models picking up on an inversion 'faux cold' scenario a la December 2008, with high pressure sat across the country.
http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif
This link shows the likely pressure distributions over the coming months, though I must stress this is just one model. December and January show blocking centred around or just south and east of Greenland which is a good sign if you are looking for snow and cold weather to dominate. However, given the lack of detail this far out it is impossible to say whether a block over Greenland would result in a west based or east based -NAO. By February, the block has slipped to lie across the UK which pretty much backs up the thoughts of Stuart (Glacier Point) If that pressure distribution was to unfold for Feb as seen there, a rex block of some description would probably prevail with settled, dry and cold weather in the south and milder Atlantic weather dominating further north into Scotland and Northern Ireland.
http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html
The link above illustrates the current state of the La Nina fairly well. It has been mooted that a strong La Nina can prohibit the chances of a cold winter; however, the way I am seeing things at the moment is that things are a little bit different this time round. As BFTP (Fred) has stated, we appear have entered the dominant La Nina juncture of the perturbation cycle which hasn't showed its hand for around half a century until recently.

• Southward Shift of the Jetstream

Since the woeful summer of 2007, the jetstream has been behaving strangely and has presented us with its tendency to migrate further south than has been the case pre 2007. Also showing a tendency to amplify and 'buckle' in places bringing unusual synoptics to some areas (European winter 2009/2010, Russian heatwave, Pakistani floods as obvious examples). This southward shift enables to PF to push further south than might usually be the case and increasing the risk of cold to affect more areas.

December 2010

Characterised by frequency of North to Northeasterly air masses. Strong jet stream forcing depressions to undercut blocking around the Greenland area. Northern Ireland and Scotland often dry but cold- lowest average temperatures for the month. England and Wales are likely to be cold and wet, especially the further southwest you are situated- repeated milder interludes may proceed bands of sleet and snow with the middle part of the country experiencing the greatest instances of snow falling.

CET estimate: 3.5-4.5c = BELOW AVERAGE

January 2011

A month of two halves. A disturbed and cold first half of the month beckons I feel, High pressure centred to the northwest maintains a cold feed but low pressure encroaches from the south at the same time. In between, often frosty and ocassionally very wintry with snow showers and some longer outbreaks of snow towards north east facing coasts especially.

Second half of the month sees things warm up a bit as a tropical maritime airmass encroaches to bring spells of rain and only hill snow to most areas.

CET estimate: 3.2-4.2c = AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE

February 2011

After a spell of unsettled weather to finish off January, February is an uncertain month. At the moment I am going for a settling down of the weather, high pressure centred across south east Britain and the Low Countries ensures cold and frosty weather at night but pleasant by day. For Northern Ireland and Scotland, a mild, cloudy Atlantic feed is likely to bring a dull month but also milder temperatures.

CET estimate: AVERAGE

[The watcher]

It's all starting now....someone get the prozac!

[andy_leics22]

what :S?

It was a joke, Faux sounds like... Oh it doesn't matter

[chionomaniac]

Netweather was wrong with last years forcast as most people where so id take this one with a pinch of salt does not take much skill to predict a drier then normal winter it been dry here in Ireland Dublin for past year has been 80 percent less rain

also what netweather is saying is way diffrent to joes b winter update

I think that your accuracy is matched by your eloquence here.

Edited October 18, 2010 by chionomaniac

[Thundery wintry showers]

Two points to make here:

1. Last winter was exceptionally snowy across northern Britain in particular, so particularly in the context of recent times it will be hard to get something comparable in 2010/11.

2. I sense some gnashing of teeth because the forecast isn't what many people wanted to hear- that's exactly the kind of attitude that results in many amateur weather sites spouting "this will be the next 1947" every winter. I would much rather have well-reasoned forecasts with a minimum of confirmation bias than have forecasts that pander to what the masses on the site want.

As for last winter's N-W forecast, I recall that December and January were quite accurately predicted, while February 2010 had always been prone to more uncertainty and in the end the prediction for February went wrong.

[Mark Bayley]

Netweather was wrong with last years forcast as most people where so id take this one with a pinch of salt does not take much skill to predict a drier then normal winter it been dry here in Ireland Dublin for past year has been 80 percent less rain

also what netweather is saying is way diffrent to joes b winter update

I seem to remember GP doing very well last year... Unless i'm missing something?

A good indeph forecast by GP. A cold dry winter does not mean there will be no snow which is the feeling you get from some people in here!

[Weather-history]

I think we need to consider that wonderful term 'faux cold' .

A terrible term, there is nothing false about it, cold is cold, the only issue is whether its a deep airmass cold or a shallow surface cold.

[andy_leics22]

I think that your accuracy is matched by your eloquence here.

I'm deducting a point for a punch below the belt :lol:

[Weather-history]

Some famous cold winters that were also in the top 20 driest winters on record for England and Wales

1813-14, 1829-30, 1854-55 1890-91, 1962-63

However you can have a mild and dry winter, 1975-76 and 1991-92 are such examples.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A terrible term, there is nothing false about it, cold is cold, the only issue is whether its a deep airmass cold or a shallow surface cold.

I think the term I've "bolded" above is certainly a better description than "faux cold".

After all, do many people post about the incredible "faux cold" of 22-25 January 1963? The cold 850hPa temperatures were mixed out during that period and high pressure controlled the weather, yet in the CET zone it was the coldest spell of the winter.

[Weather-history]

I think the term I've "bolded" above is certainly a better description than "faux cold".

After all, do many people post about the incredible "faux cold" of 22-25 January 1963? The cold 850hPa temperatures were mixed out during that period and high pressure controlled the weather, yet in the CET zone it was the coldest spell of the winter.

The end of the January 1982 cold spell is another example. It was still very cold at the surface even though the 850hpa were above 0C

[chionomaniac]

The end of the January 1982 cold spell is another example. It was still very cold at the surface even though the 850hpa were above 0C

I'm with you on this one Mr D. I much prefer deep and shallow cold. I bet GP threw this grenade in with a chuckle.

[MR EXTREMES]

im glad to see my average slightly below winter but dry.

lets see i hope this winter gives us more of a wintry suprise but intresting winter outlook by net weather.

i went for winter like 2005 which was active hurricaine season it was cold and the west got the best of it.