Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[azores92]

I also have to say the term faux cold is a bit of a nuisance, as it has been reiterated over the past; cold is cold, no matter how it comes into fruition, be it from a true easterly or inversion high. Nonetheless, interesting forecast from GP there, which could give a little bit of everything but the kitchen sink weatherwise this year. There seems to be a strong emphasis on dry conditions, but im sure if the surface temperatures are cold enough, there will be opportunities for periods of snow. The outlook could look a lot worse people.

[Neilsouth]

And so do I, particularly the last paragraph concerning blizzards. One of the most over-used, and under experienced, terms on this forum.

What i tend to say is " Blizzard like conditions " , in otherwords it's not a blizzard but could give the impression of one

[knocker]

What i tend to say is " Blizzard like conditions " , in otherwords it's not a blizzard but could give the impression of one

Are you not creating problems for yourself here? Blizzard-like conditions could be construed by some as a ground blizzard. No snow actually falling.Or indeed this is exactly what you mean.

Edited October 19, 2010 by weather ship

[Tucco]

Are you not creating problems for yourself here? Blizzard-like conditions could be construed by some as a ground blizzard. No snow actually falling.Or indeed this is exactly what you mean.

Not a fan of the term blizzard like conditions, its either a blizzard or not. Have to agree with TM most overused term on this group as for use of the term whiteout

Mark

[Ladyofthestorm]

I also agree with what Kevin has said. That bit about blizzards. I have only ever experienced one true Blizzard and that was in January 1984 where winds swept in at 60mph and it snowed continuously for 12 hours. Blizzards do not happen that often and certainly did not happen last year as there was no wind. Heavy snow with no wind is a white out and yes we have had dozens of those.

Anyway, I still think The Net weather Forecast is right, it explains that lack of energy that seems to be evident in the atlantic.

Cold cold cold, dry and settled.... look to the winter of 1993/94, if you want a comparison. That was very cold and dry and december was snowy.

[artfularshavin]

I also agree with what Kevin has said. That bit about blizzards. I have only ever experienced one true Blizzard and that was in January 1984 where winds swept in at 60mph and it snowed continuously for 12 hours. Blizzards do not happen that often and certainly did not happen last year as there was no wind. Heavy snow with no wind is a white out and yes we have had dozens of those.

Anyway, I still think The Net weather Forecast is right, it explains that lack of energy that seems to be evident in the atlantic.

Cold cold cold, dry and settled.... look to the winter of 1993/94, if you want a comparison. That was very cold and dry and december was snowy.

so was that a very cold winter or not,and you are saying this winter will be similar? i believe this winter will be colder then last year,although a lot drier

[Richard Lake]

What generally dry and cold/very cold can produce

1986 Very cold (-1.1C CET), with frequent light snowfalls. The second coldest February of the century (after 1947), and third coldest month. The month was similar to January 1963 in being a completely blocked month, with a high centred over north Russia bringing some very cold air east. Winds were easterly for 23 days, and were of virtual calm for the remaining days. Easterly winds had already set in by the end of January. Snow cover was widespread in the east, where it was very dull: Cupar (Fife) registered only 41 hours sunshine all month. In the west it was very dry and sunny (144 hours sunshine on Anglesey; with no measurable rain at all in some western coastal sites). The lowest temperature was at Grantown-on-Spey, where it reached -21.2C on the 27th. The lowest temperature around Birmingham was -11.0C, at Elmdon, on the 21st, and the highest, just 3.8C on the 28th. Freezing rain in the north Midlands. Up to 50 mm of glaze was recorded on broken power lines at Buxton on the 2nd. Widdybank Fell, at 513 m above sea level in County Durham, remained beneath freezing all month, and had a total of 32 consecutive days beneath zero - probably a record for a habited area. This was our last exceptionally cold month (average beneath zero). I remember our toilet freezing and a six inch icicle growing out of the cistern overflow. I reckon this is the last time I experienced a temperature beneath -10C. The cold persisted into early March. For some reason I find that February 1986 is often "the forgotten month" when one talks about extreme winters in Britain. Perhaps this is because there wasn't any widespread serious disruption due to heavy snow over a wide area, perhaps because there weren't any record-breaking low temperatures, and perhaps because the rest of the winter was unexceptional. Indeed, some parts of the country had no snow at all. Nevertheless, it was, and remains, the coldest month since January 1963.

So don't be too concerned about dry...not that this is forecast of course.

BFTP

Hi all,

Back for the winter... okay just dropping in brief can't see much snow on the horizon just yet. :-(

Winter 1986 is perhaps the most memorable winter I remember as a child. Whether it was actually February or not I can't be sure, but was very very memorable where I live. Being only 9 at the time, I enjoyed 2 weeks off school thanks to the snow. Depth was truly historic in this area, 12inches was common in everybody's backyard and easily 6 to 8 inches on the pavements.

I must have a look through some old photo albums, am sure my old folks took plenty at the time. Would be great to see what others may have posted on NW as well from that year.

So for me BFTP I'll never forgot that year as it was truly historic in Northern Lincolnshire.

[AderynCoch]

Blowtorch: the appropriate application for this term if it is to be used, should be during a summer heatwave such as August 1990 or 2003. After all, a blowtorch is hot!!

I think that's being a tad pedantic! It's like saying "dartboard low" is a stupid term because an actual dartboard doesn't have that many rings, or that "boiling hot" is an absurd phrase to use given that the air temperature never gets anywhere near 100C. It would be pretty dull if we couldn't use figurative language on account of it being inaccurate.

I do agree that "blizzard" is ridiculously overused: exact definitions may vary but if there's no heavy, drifting snow and strong winds then for me it doesn't count.

Edited October 19, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Thundery wintry showers]

Cold cold cold, dry and settled.... look to the winter of 1993/94, if you want a comparison. That was very cold and dry and december was snowy.

I recall 1993/94 being a very unsettled winter, with frequent westerly winds in December & January (December was often cold and snowy in the Midlands and north, generally mild in the south, then January was a bit milder in the north) and then the westerlies fizzled out towards mid-February, replaced by easterlies and widespread snowfalls.

December 1996/January 1997 were good examples of a pair of cold dry months over much of the country. During January 1997 some parts had no falling or lying snow at all despite below-average temperatures, but in some parts of eastern England, the snow cover from the easterly outbreak of 30/31 December 1996 persisted for 10 or 11 days, topped up by the odd light snowfall.

Re. February 1986, I remember looking through some statistics and getting the impression that the easterly flow may have been more unstable the further north you were. Most sites in the southeast reported a dull dry month, with sporadic light snowfalls (though they will have added up on the ground due to the persistently low temperatures) while many sites in eastern Scotland and northeast England reported close to average precipitation and only a slight shortage of sunshine. The month was quite bizarre in NW England- both Lancaster and Manchester had falling snow on well over half of the days of the month, yet sunshine was much above normal and only a few millimetres fell all month!

[johnholmes]

for the actual term blizzard in Met O terms simply go their web site for the definition.

[cheeky_monkey]

I recall 1993/94 being a very unsettled winter, with frequent westerly winds in December & January (December was often cold and snowy in the Midlands and north, generally mild in the south, then January was a bit milder in the north) and then the westerlies fizzled out towards mid-February, replaced by easterlies and widespread snowfalls.

i would agree 1993/94 wasnt particularly cold nor particularly dry either.

[Weather-history]

I think that's being a tad pedantic! It's like saying "dartboard low" is a stupid term because an actual dartboard doesn't have that many rings, or that "boiling hot" is an absurd phrase to use given that the air temperature never gets anywhere near 100C. It would be pretty dull if we couldn't use figurative language on account of it being inaccurate.

I do agree that "blizzard" is ridiculously overused: exact definitions may vary but if there's no heavy, drifting snow and strong winds then for me it doesn't count.

I take your point but didn't I say that if you are going to use "blowtorch" wouldn't it be more logical to use the term for a heatwave? Pretty obvious, isn't it? I mean a blowtorch in winter wouldn't melt butter! If we are going to use descriptive terms lets use them logically, at least, thats what I'm saying.

Edited October 19, 2010 by Mr_Data

[AderynCoch]

I guess we don't hear the phrase in summer because hot weather is generally associated with calm rather than high winds. Mild winters on the other hand evoke images of unsettled Atlantic-dominated weather.

I'm sure we'd hear the word "blowtorch" a lot more often in summer if we experienced a hot wind like the khamsin or sirocco, but even so there's nothing stopping anyone from using it at any time of the year to describe unusually high temperatures. For me, it's the massive exaggeration of the word in winter which gives it so much meaning and makes weather discussions so much more colourful.

Edited October 19, 2010 by AderynCoch

[greybing]

Not directed at the person I have quoted but in general terms.

Why oh why, do the winter season bring out such idiotic terms that try to be clever but infact expose short comings?

There's faux or artifical cold. There's nothing faux about it, it is cold regardless whether its shallow or deep airmass cold. As for artifical that just about takes the biscuit, an inversion is a natural process, there is nothing artifical about it.

Blowtorch: the appropriate application for this term if it is to be used, should be during a summer heatwave such as August 1990 or 2003. After all, a blowtorch is hot!!

Hairdryer: To describe a broad SWly airstream. I'm sure the people of Cumbria, North west Wales etc will not agree with this term as they total the inches of rainfall that can accompany such airstreams.

Then there is the misuse of the term "blizzard", Paul Simons in his Times Weather Eye column the other day misused it claiming there were blizzards in southern England back in October 2008. They weren't! Over 90% of reports claiming we have a whiteout or blizzard, ain't!

Rant over

here,here ,could not agree with you more.

[richardc1983]

Not sure if this means owt or if its just coincidental:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8071553/Siberian-swans-signal-start-of-Arctic-winter.html

[Norrance]

I recall 1993/94 being a very unsettled winter, with frequent westerly winds in December & January (December was often cold and snowy in the Midlands and north, generally mild in the south, then January was a bit milder in the north) and then the westerlies fizzled out towards mid-February, replaced by easterlies and widespread snowfalls.

December 1996/January 1997 were good examples of a pair of cold dry months over much of the country. During January 1997 some parts had no falling or lying snow at all despite below-average temperatures, but in some parts of eastern England, the snow cover from the easterly outbreak of 30/31 December 1996 persisted for 10 or 11 days, topped up by the odd light snowfall.

Re. February 1986, I remember looking through some statistics and getting the impression that the easterly flow may have been more unstable the further north you were. Most sites in the southeast reported a dull dry month, with sporadic light snowfalls (though they will have added up on the ground due to the persistently low temperatures) while many sites in eastern Scotland and northeast England reported close to average precipitation and only a slight shortage of sunshine. The month was quite bizarre in NW England- both Lancaster and Manchester had falling snow on well over half of the days of the month, yet sunshine was much above normal and only a few millimetres fell all month!

Looking back at the records last Winter was the first since 1986 to have 30+ official snow lying days here in Dundee so that would back up the instability further North argument. It was also the last year that this part of the East coast had anything like the snow lying days that occurred inland towards the Highlands. What happened to the Easterlies? [Mid Jan 1987 and 1991 apart].

[Kentish Kiwi]

Not sure if this means owt or if its just coincidental:

http://www.telegraph...tic-winter.html

Probably 'nowt' considering its the "earliest since 2003"...

[Ladyofthestorm]

I recall 1993/94 being a very unsettled winter, with frequent westerly winds in December & January (December was often cold and snowy in the Midlands and north, generally mild in the south, then January was a bit milder in the north) and then the westerlies fizzled out towards mid-February, replaced by easterlies and widespread snowfalls.

My memory is really good when it comes to dates and things. I remember autumn 1993 really well because I was a student at Stirling Uni. I have had a look and according to the meto they bring up autumn 1993 as a very cold un. It might have been wet and mild in the south but it wasnt up here, we had regular snowfall, almost up until christmas. Freezing fog.

The meto have brought up this phrase coldest autumn since 1993 in one of there tables, Im sure the CET was well down as well that year. Flooding happened because of freak rainfall events rather than unsettled weather patterns.

My link

[ronan]

Taken from the Weather Outlook site......

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=pr&id=1774

Sounds good to me!!

UK Winter 2010/11 – initial prospects

A hat trick of cold winters in the United Kingdom?

If winter 2010/11 is cold in the United Kingdom, it will be the third in succession. Between 1991 and 2007 winters in the UK were mostly milder than the long term average, with the notable exception of 1995. Things changed in 2008/09 with the UK having its first cold winter for over a decade, and this was immediately followed by the winter of 2009/10 which for much of the country was worst since 1978/79, bringing widespread and heavy snowfalls.

TheWeatherOutlook correctly predicted that the last two winters would bring below average temperatures to the UK, and that the two prior to these would be milder than average. We are now being asked whether a third consecutive cold winter is likely. History shows that in Britain cold winters tend to come in clusters. This indicates that some of the underlying factors which cause them can persist or reoccur for a number of years. Despite this, it is unusual to have three consecutive cold winters, but a good example of it happening during the last century was during the period from 1939/40 to 1941/42.

Winter 2010/11 prospects

Our view at the current time is that winter 2010/11 is likely to bring colder than average conditions to the UK again, with the risk of heavy snowfall and severe frost affecting much of the country at times. However, the actual pattern of the winter may be different to last year, with the cold tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic. With this pattern we expect the most persistent cold in eastern England and Scotland with temperatures falling as low as -15C overnight, and at times remaining sub zero during the day, but with the chance of heavy snow in western regions and Northern Ireland. We expect the worst of the wintry weather to come during January and the first half of February.

Commentary

Brian Gaze of TheWeatherOutlook said, “I am currently expecting winter 2010/11 to be colder than average again in the UK. Although cold spells may be less sustained than last year, some very sharp spells of wintry weather are likely to bring heavy snow falls and sharp frost. The battleground between cold continental air and mild Atlantic air may well shift around close to the UK. In the UK the heaviest falls of snow often occur when mild and wet air from the Atlantic runs into dense cold and dry continental air. This can lead to the formation of heavy and slow moving bands of sleet and snow. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations in the west of Britain and Northern Ireland having significant snowfalls, but the coldest weather is likely to persist for longer in eastern Britain. The core of the cold may well be slightly further east than last year, and this is also likely to give much of mainland Europe below average temperatures. If this occurs the alpine ski resorts may have another good season, although cold conditions on their own don’t ensure this because unless some mild and moist air gets into the mix, it often remains too dry for the heavy snow needed. “ Forecast background The initial winter forecast is based on data from seasonal forecasting models, historic weather pattern matching, and recent UK temperature trends. Final winter forecast Our full and final winter forecast for winter 2010/11 will be issued in late November 2010, and will factor in developments during the rest of autumn.

[Ladyofthestorm]

I will go and purchse the new sledge then!

[Guest]

I will go and purchse the new sledge then!

Gonnae no jinx the winter by buying a sledge hen? :lol:

If it does turn out snowy I will post you one of my spare sledges :lol:

[Ladyofthestorm]

I wouldne dream o jinxin the snaw pet? I couldne live with maself if I didntne hae a sledge!

But I get your drift CMD! lol

[Cymro]

Diolch i Dduw ein bod ni'n dod o'r Gorllewin

Thank the Lord that Wales is in the West

[Guest]

I wouldne dream o jinxin the snaw pet? I couldne live with maself if I didntne hae a sledge!

But I get your drift CMD! lol

I will seriously package one of our sledges up and post it to you once the winter's big snow storm appears on radar...:lol:

[Ladyofthestorm]

Ok your on!

I do wish the regional forums would open up... Ok moderating them all isnt an option but at least open the scottish one, it is actually snowing here!