Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[camiscool]

Do we think most of the snowfall this winter will be in the west of the uk

[Ladyofthestorm]

Do we think most of the snowfall this winter will be in the west of the uk

I hope so I never saw very much last year at all!

[camiscool]

Noooo we want it in the east!!!

Noooo we want it in the east!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

The West Midlands certainly deserves its share this year, We were rather cheated on totals last year!

[camiscool]

down here

In the south east do you think there is much chance of snow?

down here

In the south east do you think there is much chance of snow?

[Weathergirl]

Winter in the West, will be where it's best (fingers crossed)

[snowlover2009]

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I was just trying to make the point that the CFS charts may have gotten the October pattern quite well several months ago. Also, the years I was referring to were just the last sub 9C Octobers we got, nothing to do with the rest of winter

dont worry LOL and i must have read wrong.

[camiscool]

Major blizzards hit south east huge 15ft drifts in middle of london!

[Ladyofthestorm]

:aggressive:We were really conned last year, -10C and it had the cheek to hail!

grrrrr need a good northerly, easterlies are rubbish for us.

[snowlover2009]

what makes them think most of the snow will be in the west and with the atlantic more blocked, i would expect most snow for the eastern parts.

It is all confusing for me, which boundary is Leeds in when you say western and eastern parts? I am on the spine of the country, so should i expect heavy snowfalls and freezing conditions that are predicted in the east.

I would expect more snow, more than anything if the set up was true, we do well with them, we dont do good with temperatures as low as -18 etc i don't think.

Edited October 13, 2010 by snowlover2009

[camiscool]

To be honest nobody really

Knows where the snow will end up but I am still going for the east ( colder temps)

[Snowstorm1]

To be honest nobody really

Knows where the snow will end up but I am still going for the east ( colder temps)

Even if he says comes true the best conditions in my opinion will still be in the EAST.

The east will get persistant snow showers from the set up he describes and potential troughs so a steady build up of snow.

In the west it will be borderline between rain and snow and if youre lucky enough to get snow then yes you will get alot but may need to wait a while before the next battle.

I think thats what his trying to describe the general winter snow pattern?

[camiscool]

Yes the west will be slightly milder but

If they do get snow they will get quiet a lot but in the east with persistent freezing temps in the east means more persistent snow. Anyone agree???

[snowlover2009]

Even if he says comes true the best conditions in my opinion will still be in the EAST.

The east will get persistant snow showers from the set up he describes and potential troughs so a steady build up of snow.

In the west it will be borderline between rain and snow and if youre lucky enough to get snow then yes you will get alot but may need to wait a while before the next battle.

I think thats what his trying to describe the general winter snow pattern?

I agree, i thought it was silly to say the west will get the most, if the atlantic is more blocked, having said that with a big old storm hitting the cold air who knows. Would you consider Leeds east or west? Either way we did well with easterlies last year with several weeks of snow from xmas to january.

[Snowstorm1]

I agree, i thought it was silly to say the west will get the most, if the atlantic is more blocked, having said that with a big old storm hitting the cold air who knows. Would you consider Leeds east or west? Either way we did well with easterlies last year with several weeks of snow from xmas to january.

I would say leeds is down the spine of the country but if pushed wether to say east or west Id say slightly to the east but really its a central postion down the spine of the country.

[camiscool]

I would probably say Leeds is slap bang in the middle!

[snowlover2009]

Yes the west will be slightly milder but

If they do get snow they will get quiet a lot but in the east with persistent freezing temps in the east means more persistent snow. Anyone agree???

well with cold pools off the continent, I don't see why there would be a split of freezing conditions in the east and snowy conditions in the west. by west he means western england, ireland etc? So if winter is expected to be persistantly cold again then i have know idea how this would work for a cold winter, this would mean we would have low pressure coming in from the west hitting the cold air and turn rain to snow in the west and eventually bringing mild air in from the west. So i don't see how this would work. With a southerly jet most likely in a potentially cold winter, i wouldn't expect just the west to get snow then, i would expect the south too more so as well. it sounds like he think it will be a big battle, i would expect a battle zone to bring snow to the spine of the country, as the atlantic and high pressure to the east clash in the middle of the UK.

Western areas would get snow and a lot of it, but only days later it would get milder from the atlantic, how else can a low come in and bring snow to the west and dry air to the east,, unless it is battleground with the altantic and high pressure to the east, but we are seeing a lot of predicitons of a blocked north atlantic.

Edited October 13, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Ladyofthestorm]

Nope I think it will be northern scotland and the coastal areas this year, I dont think we will get a beast from the east, I think it will be a return of northerly blasts.

[camiscool]

Wow look at those GFS charts for the 21st a lot of snow

[snowlover2009]

I would say leeds is down the spine of the country but if pushed wether to say east or west Id say slightly to the east but really its a central postion down the spine of the country.

Well that makes more sense, I guess I am in a good spot, a bit of everything likely. A cold winter, then pretty much chance of getting some good falls of snow, the pennines do well and i am not too far, can see them from bedroom window

Nope I think it will be northern scotland and the coastal areas this year, I dont think we will get a beast from the east, I think it will be a return of northerly blasts.

Well we could get something similar to december 2009 and december 1981 for example with low pressure coming directly from the north and bringing snow in on north westerly winds like aroudn 21st december 2009, i cant see us having a winter with just northerly blasts everytime it would be unheard of, maybe a lot of cold from the north, but it wont be just northerly winds, polar lows or whatever those low pressure are that come from the north

[MR EXTREMES]

well after seeing joe b video looks a little concerning for us in the uk although the people that have been going for average uk winter might well be spot on if joes idears prove correct.

average is not all bad if it were to be average we could expect northerly outbreaks perhapes less in the way of east an ne flows so not as cold as last winter.

although if we get a flow from russia and its sustained then could be very cold here but from joes idears then id be a little more against a winter like last here in the uk.<_<

[snowlover2009]

well after seeing joe b video looks a little concerning for us in the uk although the people that have been going for average uk winter might well be spot on if joes idears prove correct.

average is not all bad if it were to be average we could expect northerly outbreaks perhapes less in the way of east an ne flows so not as cold as last winter.

although if we get a flow from russia and its sustained then could be very cold here but from joes idears then id be a little more against a winter like last here in the uk.<_<

He hasnt uploaded his thoughts yet, he didn't predict must cold temps last winter on his forecast if you re look.

Also,his theory in my opinion is nonsense. He bases so many opinions on what the weather will hold in the future and is bound to be wrong at some point LOL, like USA haveing lots of cold winter in 2 years time, its a good theory is that one, but this one is weird. Why would he make a theory of a hot august and cold october lead to a cold winter, in the location of the place that got the hot and cold weather in october and august. It is strange, there is many different correlations that could be behind what a season may hold. like some people presumed the wet and mild november was the reason for the cold winter, but if it was like that every november for 10 years, the chances are it wouldn't always lead to a cold winter realsitically.

Edited October 13, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Geordiesnow]

well after seeing joe b video looks a little concerning for us in the uk although the people that have been going for average uk winter might well be spot on if joes idears prove correct.

average is not all bad if it were to be average we could expect northerly outbreaks perhapes less in the way of east an ne flows so not as cold as last winter.

although if we get a flow from russia and its sustained then could be very cold here but from joes idears then id be a little more against a winter like last here in the uk.<_<

Badboy, i remember you writing off last winter in November because it was so mild, i thought you would of learnt your lesson.

To be honest, i take NO notice of future charts and waht the CFS and any other climate model says, if they are reliable, we would still get the UKMO winter forecasts.

Wait and see what happens.

[snowlover2009]

Badboy, i remember you writing off last winter in November because it was so mild, i thought you would of learnt your lesson.

To be honest, i take NO notice of future charts and waht the CFS and any other climate model says, if they are reliable, we would still get the UKMO winter forecasts.

Wait and see what happens.

I agree and for someone who has a picture of seasonal weather, i wouldn't have expected this, i would have expected more positivity, unless you just doing it for the sake of it and have your opinion on the coming winter.

[camiscool]

Can anyone give a sort of vague summary of this winter for the south east ? Many thanks