Summer 2011

[sundog]

I find it very difficult to know what may happen this summer. The weather we've had for the last while could be a sign of a good summer to come or a sign of a bad one. I dont have a clue but my best guess would be a warm and sunny first half,cooler wetter second half.

Last Autumn on the radio i heard Ken Ring being interviewed on the radio,his main prediction for 2011 was that it would be noted for its dryness,he predicted this year would be a very dry one. I would not normally pay attention to the likes of him but so far anyway he seems to be right. but of course alot can change.

[mushymanrob]

Of course I hope you're 100% right but it isn't always the case that warm, dry weather in spring leads to a cool, wet summer. Back in the mists of time 1893, 1921 and 1949 are prime examples of fine, warm weather lasting throughout the summer. More recently 1959, 1976 and 1995 saw generally fine. warm springs lead into dry, hot summers.

If I had the CET and rainfall series in front of me I could probably pick out the same number of examples where fine dry springs led to cool wet summers so not much to be read into it either way.

I do however agree with your basic premise that recent years have tended to see pattern changes persist for some time, so a change in May or June could well scupper the rest of the summer from your point of view.

true...theres no law that states dry spring = wet summers... its only a question of time as to when the drought ends and the longer the time goes on the more likely it is to end...

[Weather-history]

Back in the mists of time 1893, 1921 and 1949 are prime examples of fine, warm weather lasting throughout the summer.

Not entirely true, the August of 1921 was a pretty big disappointment, considering how dry and warm the year was overall. Something like August 2006.

July 1893 was a bit on the wet side as well.

But as you say, warm dry springs don't necessarily mean a poor summer.

[Snowyowl9]

Every summer is different to the last,no 2 summers are exactly the same that goes with any time of the year.

I don`t know what this summer will bring us.

It`s been a very AC spring this year the most snowless year as well since early Jan.

Edited April 17, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[Slowpoke]

Been looking for Blackpool records but struggle to find any. I'm pretty sure we got above 30c in 2006.

[If Wishes made Weather]

For the upcoming spell into early summer I'll go for continuation of the non-Atlantic dominated weather as we have had for what seems to be the past 16 months or so. Nothing I'm reading from the experts on the detailed threads seem to show it reawakening. Of course if this means cloudy/cool, warm sunny will depend on positioning of high pressure cells and troughing. But with parts of Cambridgeshire, I understand, managing a staggering 2mm of rainfall last month, I'm not suprised to see farmers here (on the chalk and flint solis of the Gog-Magog hills) already watering fields where germination of the rape crops have been distinctly patchy.

[MR EXTREMES]

i think all this summer over stuff is a lil ott have not really had a poor summer since 2007 which in my opion was the turning point in high pressure dominated weather patterns.

and this high pressure domination is looking likely to continue i cant see summer being as similar to 2007.

but not the 100f record breaker im certain of that.

but i think people are worring over nothing and i do there are some who plant the seeds which throws people into a sense of summer over hype.

this is a common aspect of posting on these forums as we see during winter although we have some very talented longrange forecasters GP and others have yet to nail this summer but i bet a bottom dollar that GP imself would side with a continued domination of high pressure,there for depending on where heights dominate will impact on how warm or cool summer will be!,

but id be brave and suggest average or maybe a lil above but enough to bring on a bbq summer.

Edited April 17, 2011 by badboy657

[Derp Patrol]

I'm going for a dry and warm summer this year. I have a very strong urge to suggest that we could be in for a 1976 or 2006 type start to summer if these synoptics continue, I think that May, June and July will be warmer and drier than average and I also think that we will see a very good summer this year

[damianslaw]

I do find summer a very difficult season to predict, much more so than autumn and winter which usually but always follow what is to be expected based on ENSO. Whereas summer can often follow no distinct pattern. Though recent summers have seen long periods of very similiar weather i.e. cloudy Augusts, wet July's fairly warm and settled Junes.

I don't believe the weather of April has any bearing on the summer to come. With this in mind I would be very surprised if the conditions and pattern of recent weeks continued in similiar vein right through to summer. It could be a good summer but with a fairly lengthy cool spell at some stage. The atlantic has been very weak since early Dec 2009, though it could easily stir into action come June.

It feels like summer now, last weekend will be a hard one to beat for the rest of the year, yes we will see warmer weekends, but as sunny cloudless and calm... mmm difficult to achieve.

[Weather-history]

. During hot spells Manchester Airport sees temperatures above 30C relatively frequently, with 30C being exceeded 5 times during July 2006 and several times during August 2003.

I rechecked the figures for August 2003 because it wasn't as hot as you suspect. It only reached 30C once during that month. It got to 30C+ twice during July 2003.

It got to 25C+ just 6 times that month of August 2003, which probably explains why I didn't quite rate summer 2003 as highly as some people do.

---------------------------------------------------------

CETs for past Easter periods since 1880

26th-29th March 1880: 5.7

15th-18th April 1881: 9.5

7th-10th April 1882: 7.9

23rd-26th March 1883: 0.9 <-----Coldest in this list

11th-14th April 1884: 6.3

3rd-6th April 1885: 4.3

23rd-26th April 1886: 10.5

8th-11th April 1887: 6.0

30th March-2nd April 1888: 4.2

19th-22nd April 1889: 9.0

4th-7th April 1890: 6.6

27th-30th March 1891: 4.5

15th-18th April 1892: 2.3

31st March-3rd April 1893: 8.9

23rd-26th March 1894: 8.4

12th-16th April 1895: 6.0

3rd-6th April 1896: 8.4

16th-19th April 1897: 7.9

8th-11th April 1898: 11.0

31st March-3rd April 1899: 10.3

13th-16th April 1900: 9.4

5th-8th April 1901: 8.0

28th-31st March 1902: 7.8

10th-13th April 1903: 6.7

1st-4th April 1904: 6.8

20th-24th April 1905: 6.3

13th-16th April 1906: 8.2

29th March-1st April 1907: 9.8

17th-20th April 1908: 5.4

9th-12th April 1909: 10.0

25th-28th March 1910: 6.4

14th-17th April 1911: 8.6

5th-8th April 1912: 11.3

21st-24th March 1913: 6.6

10th-13th April 1914: 9.1

2nd-5th April 1915: 7.6

21st-24th April 1916: 7.6

6th-9th April 1917: 3.4

29th March-1st April 1918: 6.9

18th-21st April 1919: 10.0

2nd-5th April 1920: 7.0

25th-28th March 1921: 6.6

14th-17th April 1922: 7.9

18th-21st April 1924: 10.6

10th-13th April 1925: 8.6

2nd-5th April 1926: 13.6

15th-18th April 1927: 9.1

6th-9th April 1928: 10.1

29th March-1st April 1929: 9.6

18th-21st April 1930: 5.8

3rd-6th April 1931: 6.6

25th-28th March 1932: 7.0

14th-17th April 1933: 8.5

30th March-2nd April 1934: 5.1

19th-22nd April 1935: 10.4

10th-14th April 1936: 5.0

26th-29th March 1937: 3.4

15th-18th April 1938: 6.3

7th-10th April 1939: 8.2

22nd-25th March 1940: 9.4

11th-14th April 1941: 8.6

3rd-6th April 1942: 8.4

23rd-26th April 1943: 10.6

7th-10th April 1944: 9.3

30th March-2nd April 1945: 10.0

19th-22nd April 1946: 8.8

4th-7th April 1947: 7.0

26th-29th March 1948: 9.8

15th-18th April 1949: 14.5 <----------warmest in this list

7th-10th April 1950: 9.2

23rd-26th March 1951: 5.6

11th-14th April 1952: 10.6

3rd-6th April 1953: 5.8

16th-19th April 1954: 8.2

8th-11th April 1955: 10.7

30th March-2nd April 1956: 6.4

19th-22nd April 1957: 9.6

4th-7th April 1958: 3.8

27th-30th March 1959: 7.9

15th-18th April 1960: 6.6

31st March - 3rd April 1961: 6.0

20th-23rd April 1962: 9.5

12th-15th April 1963: 7.3

27th-30th March 1964: 4.3

16th-19th April 1965: 8.6

8th-11th April 1966: 8.8

24th-27th March 1967: 6.6

12th-15th April 1968: 7.1

4th-7th April 1969: 7.6

27th-30th March 1970: 4.8

9th-12th April 1971: 7.6

31st March-3rd April 1972: 10.3

20th-23rd April 1973: 6.0

12th-15th April 1974: 6.9

28th-31st March 1975: 3.4

16th-19th April 1976: 10.7

8th-11th April 1977: 4.5

24th-27th March 1978: 7.4

13th-16th April 1979: 11.4

4th-7th April 1980: 7.3

17th-20th April 1981: 6.5

9th-12th April 1982: 5.8

1st-4th April 1983: 4.2

20th-23rd April 1984: 12.1

5th-8th April 1985: 8.9

28th-31st March 1986: 5.4

17th-20th April 1987: 11.8

1st-4th April 1988: 7.6

24th-27th March 1989: 7.4

13th-16th April 1990: 6.5

29th March-1st April 1991: 7.3

17th-20th April 1992: 11.1

9th-12th April 1993: 8.6

1st-4th April 1994: 5.7

14th-17th April 1995: 9.4

5th-8th April 1996: 6.4

28th-31st March 1997: 7.8

10th-13th April 1998: 4.1

2nd-5th April 1999: 11.4

21st-24th April 2000: 10.0

13th-16th April 2001: 7.4

29th March-1st April 2002: 9.5

18th-21st April 2003: 10.5

9th-12th April 2004: 8.2

25th-28th March 2005: 9.5

14th-17th April 2006: 9.7

6th-9th April 2007: 9.1

21st-24th March 2008: 3.6

10th-13th April 2009: 10.0

2nd-5th April 2010: 6.7

[Costa Del Fal]

I believe Summer 2011 will be the best one yet since 2007. Not better than 2006 or 2003 for example but a very respectable summer, perhaps quite Hot at times. I expect a more Thundery year than the last couple of years too. Im certainly not expecting a washout summer this year.

[Supercell 89]

My initial thoughts on this summer are it being another cool and pretty wet one, as im thinking this current La Nina is in it for the long haul. Which if it persists this summer, combined with the negative turning QBO i think it could give a cool wet pattern.

However if La Nina weakens away to leave neutral conditions in the Pacific then i think we could possibly get a decent-ish summer, maybe something along the lines of 2005, warm but with cool wet spells.

But i've also had some interest in the stratosphere the last few weeks, as it has been pretty cold the combination of that with +QBO has left us in this very dry and increasingly warm pattern, the ozone levels have too plummeted across the north pole which can cause stratospheric cooling, so with that in mind if the stratosphere stays cold during the next few months we could have a warm and very dry pattern persist through until summer and perhaps beyond, but that's just my novice thoughts .

[Isolated Frost]

I'm going for a cooler, wetter start to the summer, with SOME warmth and sunshine from the SW in June/July, but the Atlantic slowly moves out of energy for a while and Southerly winds from Spain and The Med arrive, prompting a hot, sunny August and possibly early September, with few Atlantic inclusions, however LP systems from the west move in in September and a wet, mild Autumn follows.

[mushymanrob]

.... maybe (hopefully) it wont go the way of 2007... but i think its unlikely to be the 'perfect' summer, that is, decent periods of warm dry sunny conditions indispersed with short lived cooler wetter conditions. maybe its long overdue for another 76,83, 90, 95... dry summers = poor grass growth = no money for me! so much though i prefer hot weather, i cant afford it! :lol: id prefer a 07 !!!!! (though actually an 96 would be best... plenty of dry but wet enough to keep the grass growing!)

[Thundery wintry showers]

On balance 1996 was probably the summer that I enjoyed most in the Tyne and Wear area, as it had some of everything and was consistently warmer and sunnier than average. It also produced the highest temperature since I started recording, only just failing to make 30C on the 18th August 1996. (1995 ran it very close but lost points due to cool cloudy weather in early to mid June, and I could've done with one or two thundery outbreaks during that memorable spell from 29 July-23 August, while 2006, another contender due to that phenomenal July, lost points due to cloudy weather during 13-27 June and most of August).

But I have no idea what this summer has in store for us to be honest.

[Scorcher]

The two notably warm summers of recent times (2003 and 2006) both had early warm spells in April and May (with temperatures widely above 25C). There was also a hot spell in early May 1995 and 1997 also had a warm spell at the start of May. I'm sure I've heard a theory that early warm spells often precede warm summers- although 2007 demonstrated that this isn't always the case!

[damianslaw]

The two notably warm summers of recent times (2003 and 2006) both had early warm spells in April and May (with temperatures widely above 25C). There was also a hot spell in early May 1995 and 1997 also had a warm spell at the start of May. I'm sure I've heard a theory that early warm spells often precede warm summers- although 2007 demonstrated that this isn't always the case!

I have heard this theory well - but how well tested it is I don't know. The key word is 'spell', in those years mentioned the heat was relatively short-lived and not on the scale of this month or indeed 2007. Other warm spells in spring such as in early May 1990 also brought very good summer conditions. Last year we saw a mini heatwave in the tail end of spring -so I don't class this as an early warm spell - anyhow it was followed by an average summer. Other lengthy warm periods in spring i.e. Apr 1987, early May 08 and May 92 were followed by relatively poor summers. Perhaps what I am saying is a short lived mini heatwave at some stage between mid April and mid May is a possible good omen for the summer whereas a consistently warm period in April and first half of May is not - suggesting this year may be another summer dissapointment.

[Costa Del Fal]

I think in summary is that there is really no clear signal whatever happens in my opinion. I reckon especially over the last few years Summer is the hardest season to forecast but that's just my opinion. There's still a lot to learn but here's hoping we have a good one which i quietly think we will this year.

P.S Damianslaw, I have accidentally given you a -1 rating there instead of +1! My computer is really not playing ball tonight so apologies for that!

Edited April 20, 2011 by Blizzards

[MP-R]

P.S Daminaslaw, I have accidentally given you a -1 rating there instead of +1! My computer is really not playing ball tonight so apologies for that!

And I have +1ed it again as it speaks a lot of sense!

[Costa Del Fal]

And I have +1ed it again as it speaks a lot of sense!

Haha Cheers, a +1 on my behalf also. :lol:

GFS FI Beginning to show some more unsettled scenarios but this is at least a week away now and weve seen plenty of times how much this can change (I hope it changes for the better!). Could previous forecasts of a cooler, more unsettled May come to fruition or GP's recent dry and settled theme forecast go ahead?

I think a bit of both is likely. Firstly the GFS is probably overdoing the Lows in FI so already any rain in FI may fade or become more restricted to western areas. Even with this all models show High pressure constantly trying to keep charge so i think plenty of very nice days in the future. However im getting way ahead of myself here. :lol:

Edited April 20, 2011 by Blizzards

[Upgrade]

people are falling into the trap of looking for the breakdown, but in reality there's still none to be seen. it looks like continuing warm and sunny for many right through next week.

[Scorcher]

I have heard this theory well - but how well tested it is I don't know. The key word is 'spell', in those years mentioned the heat was relatively short-lived and not on the scale of this month or indeed 2007. Other warm spells in spring such as in early May 1990 also brought very good summer conditions. Last year we saw a mini heatwave in the tail end of spring -so I don't class this as an early warm spell - anyhow it was followed by an average summer. Other lengthy warm periods in spring i.e. Apr 1987, early May 08 and May 92 were followed by relatively poor summers. Perhaps what I am saying is a short lived mini heatwave at some stage between mid April and mid May is a possible good omen for the summer whereas a consistently warm period in April and first half of May is not - suggesting this year may be another summer dissapointment.

As much as I don't want to admit it, I think this is a very good point. 1998 was another example of a year that had a prolonged warm spell in May and that summer ended up pretty poor to say the least. Still, no two years are the same and a warm settled summer can never be ruled out.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think these theories particularly work either way. A notably large number of the past hot summers were preceded by one or more notable spring heatwaves, but it didn't always work (a stark counterexample was 1975).

As for this talk of "spells" as opposed to mini-heatwaves- am I seeing goalposts shifted as part of the confirmation bias of the "this spell of weather = a repeat of Summer 2007" theory? I think I might be. How about May 1989- that one had a pretty prolonged warm spell, and how about April 2003? That one had a pretty prolonged warm spell.

[GRHinPorts]

To be honest down here in the South it virtually feels like Summer anyhow at the moment so if it is going to be a write off later on I'll enjoy it now whatever the calendar says. I am sure there will be quite a few moans later on in we do get a repeat of 2007. There certainly was that Summer but I have lived in this country since March 1997 and only Aug 97, July 99, June and Aug 2003, and June and July 2006 have been better than what we have had this April for warmth, sunshine and remarkably windless weather.

So even if the "we'll pay for it later" theory turns out to be correct, who cares? People expecting to have an endless Mediterranean weather pattern are pehaps living in the wrong country me thinks.

[CroatianWeather]

Hi,again your Croatian friend speaking..hahahha....

I've just made my finally forecast for summer 2011,but I am not in good mood today so I will be short...

you want to know about UK,ha?

I see that like this:

You'll have pretty mixed May,not sunny and hot like 2008 but not very bad....there'll be some high temps near first 30°C,but it will be breaked down by strong atlantic disturbation...

Then in June there should be normal,average weather,like early summer,and then turnaround in July....July could be wetter and average in temperature(1961-90) up there...so it's not going to be real summer weather,I think...

August should give again some little warmer and drier weather but not with some record breaking temperatures...

So,overall it could be average summer for you...pretty mixed ,not very good or very bad...

Edited April 21, 2011 by CroatianWeather