Summer 2011

[Kentish Kiwi]

Would just like to add that based on Solar Flux data, 1999 is by far the best anologue.

http://www.esrl.noaa...tion/solar.data

How did that summer turn out then? Don't think I recall it being mentioned very often on these forums...

[Thundery wintry showers]

It was a mixed bag, although a good one for the convective/storm lovers in most parts of the country. Broadly speaking June was a pretty average month, July was warm sunny and dry in most regions (in the "noughties" no Julys were drier than July 1999, and only July 2006 was significantly sunnier) and then August was a thundery month with sunshine generally near or slightly below average, but a sunny one in NW Scotland. Although the summer quarter was fairly average bar the convective activity, I remember 1999 as a four-month summer as summer-like conditions persisted well into September.

[Ben_Cambs]

Good point about 1999 being a convective summer, the entire year of 1999 was fairly convective too, 22 "thunder days" were recorded in Cambridge that year, in contrast to a lowly 2 "thunder days" in 1997.

My personal opinion/ forecast for this summer is for a very dry June and July for the vast majority (bar the far North-West) with warm to ocasionally hot weather but I do expect the summer to go downhill in late July into August, with High Pressure retreating to the East allowing Atlantic LP systems through. I reckon August could be a very wet month for some though temperatures won't be that bad. I think then on the wet theme will continue well into the Autumn, possibly making it the wettest Autumn since 2000.

[GRHinPorts]

I think then on the wet theme will continue well into the Autumn, possibly making it the wettest Autumn since 2000.

Crumbs...If its anything like that season I will start building an ark now.

By the way does anyone know if prior to Autumn 2000 was 1976 the wettest Autumn of the 20th century and the year itself was not that far below average for rainfuall in spite of the great summer drought?

I am persuaded by GP's analysis of this summer and am expecting an above average one but what do I know. I sort of do think there is something in mother nature balancing itself out eventually and so when it does start raining I expect it could be quite a deluge so perhaps "Shades of 76" will extend into the autumn as well.

[95 Degrees]

Crumbs...If its anything like that season I will start building an ark now.

By the way does anyone know if prior to Autumn 2000 was 1976 the wettest Autumn of the 20th century and the year itself was not that far below average for rainfuall in spite of the great summer drought?

I am persuaded by GP's analysis of this summer and am expecting an above average one but what do I know. I sort of do think there is something in mother nature balancing itself out eventually and so when it does start raining I expect it could be quite a deluge so perhaps "Shades of 76" will extend into the autumn as well.

Hopefully if she really has to she balances herself out in mid-august, would be nice to see some warmth in august for a change though.

[Eugene]

http://www.wsieurope.com/1f01c5d6-2802-47e9-a787-13326d46cf5e/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

West Atlantic troughing should help keep the UK and Scandinavia cooler and wetter than other regions, especially during the first half of the summer. The best chance for hot weather in the UK will come in August, as the early summer pattern relaxes a bit.â€

Yes my thoughts too with a quite cool first half of summer but improving in August but with days getting longer then it will take the intensity out of any warmth with nights getting quite cool under HP in the second half especially.

[johnholmes]

http://www.wsieurope...ase-details.htm

in August but with days getting longer then it will take the intensity out of any warmth .

perhaps you mean getting shorter?

[North-Easterly Blast]

It was a mixed bag, although a good one for the convective/storm lovers in most parts of the country. Broadly speaking June was a pretty average month, July was warm sunny and dry in most regions (in the "noughties" no Julys were drier than July 1999, and only July 2006 was significantly sunnier) and then August was a thundery month with sunshine generally near or slightly below average, but a sunny one in NW Scotland. Although the summer quarter was fairly average bar the convective activity, I remember 1999 as a four-month summer as summer-like conditions persisted well into September.

The summer of 1999 was a fairly mixed bag with temperatures overall slightly above average. The July was warm and dry overall, but either side of it, June and August were average for the CET but fairly unsettled. Summer 2008 saw close to average temperatures but largely unsettled conditions for the most part, and in fact June and August 2008 were virtually identical to the same months in 1999, similar for both CETs and rainfall. The summer of 2008 was only different to 1999 during the July, which was far closer to the norm for the CET and a much wetter month than July 1999.

[GRHinPorts]

The summer of 1999 was a fairly mixed bag with temperatures overall slightly above average. The July was warm and dry overall, but either side of it, June and August were average for the CET but fairly unsettled. Summer 2008 saw close to average temperatures but largely unsettled conditions for the most part, and in fact June and August 2008 were virtually identical to the same months in 1999, similar for both CETs and rainfall. The summer of 2008 was only different to 1999 during the July, which was far closer to the norm for the CET and a much wetter month than July 1999.

July 1999 was a lovely summery month where day after day seemed to bring warm blue skies. The following August brought in some torrential days of heavy rain.

There was a run of about 5 summers between 1998 and 2002 inclusive where there was hardly any prolonged summer weather with July 1999 being well and truly a standout exception. If 2011 delivers even 1 month like that July I think most will be pleased.

[95 Degrees]

July 1999 was a lovely summery month where day after day seemed to bring warm blue skies. The following August brought in some torrential days of heavy rain.

There was a run of about 5 summers between 1998 and 2002 inclusive where there was hardly any prolonged summer weather with July 1999 being well and truly a standout exception. If 2011 delivers even 1 month like that July I think most will be pleased.

The summer of 2001 seems to be very underrated on this forum, not a really sunny one but every month saw a moderate warm/hot spell at some point and there were some amazing t-storms that year.

Edited May 28, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[Thundery wintry showers]

The summer of 1999 was a fairly mixed bag with temperatures overall slightly above average. The July was warm and dry overall, but either side of it, June and August were average for the CET but fairly unsettled. Summer 2008 saw close to average temperatures but largely unsettled conditions for the most part, and in fact June and August 2008 were virtually identical to the same months in 1999, similar for both CETs and rainfall. The summer of 2008 was only different to 1999 during the July, which was far closer to the norm for the CET and a much wetter month than July 1999.

I don't think 1999 was at all similar to 2008, the only feature in common was the statistically near-average Junes, but the respective Junes had rather different characters. August 1999 was a very different month to August 2008- yes the rainfall and mean temperatures may have been similar but August 1999 was nowhere near as dull (even in the regions that had a shortage of sunshine) and much more of the rain came from convective downpours.

The summer of 2001 seems to be very underrated on this forum, not a really sunny one but every month saw a moderate warm/hot spell at some point and there were some amazing t-storms that year.

There was considerable regional variation in 2001- it was a cloudy summer in Scotland and parts of NE England, and at Cleadon in Tyne and Wear there was only one day with thunder in the entire summer. It was, as you say, a rather different story further south, but it seems that most people only remember the unusually hot, dry or wet summers (e.g. I think Summer 1996 is generally under-rated, perhaps suffering by comparison with the previous year).

[Summer of 95]

I don't think 1999 was at all similar to 2008, the only feature in common was the statistically near-average Junes, but the respective Junes had rather different characters. August 1999 was a very different month to August 2008- yes the rainfall and mean temperatures may have been similar but August 1999 was nowhere near as dull (even in the regions that had a shortage of sunshine) and much more of the rain came from convective downpours.

There was considerable regional variation in 2001- it was a cloudy summer in Scotland and parts of NE England, and at Cleadon in Tyne and Wear there was only one day with thunder in the entire summer. It was, as you say, a rather different story further south, but it seems that most people only remember the unusually hot, dry or wet summers (e.g. I think Summer 1996 is generally under-rated, perhaps suffering by comparison with the previous year).

Summer 1999 was July. Much more so than 2006- 1999 was only July; a very good summer month (beaten since only by July 2006 and, er, April 2007) sandwiched between a typical unsettled June and a very wet August which was a toned-down version of August 2004; quite thundery, but not as wet, warm or humid- it was nothing like the incessant dull, drizzly August 2008.

2001 I have mixed memories of; I was in Newcastle for most of June where it was mostly dull and chilly though I do remember one evening of thunderstorms. May had several fine days though. In Shrewsbury in late June, July and August it consisted of a couple of short but intense hot spells (around 2-4 July especially), followed by storms, with days on end of mixed showery 18-21C days in between.

[Snowangel-MK]

Now about this shades of 1976 report, while it sounds very good on paper, i personally dont believe it. I wish i could but for one, I've seen some very odd things from certain forms of craft flying above spraying some very weird sprays across the skies, and on some days i have seen these sprayed and have seen no days of sun for days afterwards, now whether it be coincidence (ive seen this happen a few times)or not, it appears rather odd and alarming.

Hi S-W-REV you haven't put your location in your profile (You can do this by clicking on your profile in the top right hand corner, then clicking "edit profile", add your location and save) it's handy to know where you are and it might help someone else in the West Midlands explain what you have seen (it sounds like crop spraying to me - do they do that in the Midlands ?)

[damianslaw]

Lots of reminiscing about summers of yore in this thread it seems... best summer bar none in my lifetime (since 1978) has to go hand down to 1995, 1990, 2003 and 2006 never came anywhere near as close to summer 95 which was consistently good from the third week of June right through to the last week of August with persistant dry sunny very weather..

Summer 96 indeed was generally a good one but people forget it thanks to summer 95, it was never especially hot but often dry settled and warm.

We do seem to see a pattern of warm/hot summers and cool/average summers, as follows 85-88 cool, 89-91 warm, 92-93 cool/average, 94-97 warm, 98-02 cool/average, 03-06 warm, 07-10 cool/average.. will summer 11 see a revert back to the 'warm' type I wonder?

I can't see a 95 repeat, but I do think it will be the best summer since 2006 with hopefully a much better July than those in the past 4 years, but I very much doubt we will see the intense heat of July 2006. Personally I'd be very happy with a summer like 2005 which was mainly settled sunny and warm throughout, much rather have a summer like 2005 than 2003 and 2004 which were far too humid.

[Eugene]

No sign on current output of HP to our east, if anything it looks to be out to our west, i think this has caught out even the experts, May has been a very westerly month, just read conors moaning to see that

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's unwise to be too hasty- the patterns I'm seeing suggest a "west based negative NAO" with shortwaves to the north forcing the Arctic air to detour around via a cyclonic west to north-westerly pattern, and then the trough drifting west into the mid-Atlantic allowing pressure rises to the east and southerlies over the British Isles. The southerlies are of course appearing well out in FI, but it's quite a common evolution at this time of year.

[johnholmes]

which part of the uk are you from? if your further south, you may of had a better summer in both 04 and 05 than by me

Location:Windermere 120m asl

from his avatar

[damianslaw]

Location:Windermere 120m asl

from his avatar

Thanks for that John - I was about to state my location. However, during summer 04 and 05 I was in Newcastle upon Tyne even further north, though on the drier side of northern england.

Summer 04 did see some hefty rain and thunder from time to time especially during August thanks to humid tropical air.

Summer 05 was punctuated by short sharp downpours from time to time thundery in nature but in the main so more lengthy dry settled and very warm conditions with temps consistently in the low-mid 20's on most days. The warmth held sway through Sept and October, unlike 2004 which saw a wet September and quite cool October. I have to say for consistentness despite the lack of any exceptional temps, summer 2005 was probably better than summers 2003 and 2006 in my book, summer 03 is held in high esteem due to the hot spell of early August, whereas 2006 is remembered for the excellent July and quite good June. However, both summers did see some mediocre weather especially in August (most of the month for 2006 and second half 2003), unlike 2005 which saw on the whole a good August.

Edited May 31, 2011 by damianslaw

[Snowangel-MK]

Temperatures in Britain set to be hotter than Morocco this weekend....

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/06/02/temperatures-in-britain-set-to-be-hotter-than-morocco-this-weekend-115875-23172969/

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Not in the West of scotland they're not. 13c is the forecasted high on Saturday for Glasgow.

Temperatures in Britain set to be hotter than Morocco this weekend....

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/06/02/temperatures-in-britain-set-to-be-hotter-than-morocco-this-weekend-115875-23172969/

[Summer Sun]

There's an interesting artical on the Sky News website this afternoon

UK Set For More Sunshine After Warm Spring

Forecasters are predicting several days of hot and sunny weather, but it is not good news for everyone. As temperatures throughout Britain are expected to hit 18C today - with even higher temperatures in the South East - forecasters say this is just the start of the warm spell, and it will last through the weekend. But Sky News' weather team warns about discarding the extra layers just yet. "It's going to be nice and warm today and tomorrow," says Dr Christopher England.

He added: "The South-East on Sunday will be warm with temperatures reaching 20C and above but everywhere else is likely to be cooler. "Long-terms forecasts are not very reliable - they're mainly useful for energy companies and supermarkets who need to have a medium-term idea for planning. "But it would not be surprising to find the summer months being warmer and drier - that is what happens generally in summer!" One fact which all meteorologists are sure of is that it has been the warmest and driest springs for more than 100 years in parts of the UK, according to official figures. Across the whole of England and Wales, it was the second driest spring since 1910 and the driest spring since 1990 with central England seeing an average temperature of 10.3C (50.5F) - the highest since monthly records began in 1659. But while sun-lovers are basking in the warm weather, farmers are needing some rain.

Overall, England and Wales had only 45% of the long-term average rainfall for March, April and May. Even last week's heavy downpours did little to alleviate the problems. East Anglia has only had 21% of the long-term average rainfall - giving the area - which is always one of the driest in the UK - the driest spring for 101 years. "There's lower pressure on the way next week," says Sky News' weather presenter Isobel Lang, "but any rain's not likely to be enough to help."

http://news.sky.com/...Coming_Few_Days

Edited June 2, 2011 by Gavin D

[Snowangel-MK]

Temperatures in Britain set to be hotter than Morocco this weekend....

............or maybe not

June won't be so hot after all

Published on Thursday 2 June 2011 15:39

Weather forecasters have poured cold water on claims the nation is set to bake in June.

A few days of relative sunshine led to headlines of "Flaming June" and sun cream warnings.

But three different forecasters dampened suggestions the summer would be a classic leaving Britons bronzed.

Helen Chivers, of the Met Office, said on Thursday: "We are not seeing the hot spell lasting terribly long. For pretty much all the UK we have currently got a couple of days of predominantly dry weather.

http://www.newsguardian.co.uk/news/national-news/june_won_t_be_so_hot_after_all_1_3437409

[ZONE 51]

15 Apr 2011 - 02:24

Summer 2011 update..

June - after heavy flash storms from may month we become dry again, entering once again another dry month, as like march and april not any widespread rain, especially in the south, june month also becomes hot and dry, with summer weather pushing across all areas, the heatwave conditions widespread, thunderstorms rattle at times, mostly pushing up from France....

-

22 Apr 2011 - 01:44

update to my mini outlook to the future!

there is indications of not such a washout in may month, its a concern the lack of rain, at the moment the problem is on the surface with very dry ground, the rivers are really feeling it now,forest fires are allso a risk, the underground water is not as much a concern at the moment they say, as it was topped up enough through winter..in places.

-

14 May 2011 - 00:54

July - by this time we should expect some rain to ease the now drought conditions across the south especially, after a hot and mostly dry june it does look like some rain for western areas, but it does not seem like the southeast is in for a prolonged rainy period again, although local thunderstorms are always likely, there is the risk of lows moving up from France and hanging around the south

-

14 May 2011 - 00:59

august - heatwaves and storms for much of the UK ,some of the highest temps being recorded early month, i don't see cool conditions at this stage, although low pressure starting to get into the southwest.

Summer 2011 - mostly dry and very warm for many, cooler at times far north but even heat getting up here at times, rain from local thunderstorms rather than systems. drought conditions.

Edited June 3, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

These are notes from my profile-as my predictions where coming in, take a look

at the dates.(see my previous post)

as i am learning teleconnections and stuff, i did not want to

make a forecast on the forum, the exciting thing is, waiting to see the

models place setups where you think they are going to be from what you have

predicted using other data for lrf. if its wrong do i carry on? yes of course i

would, studying the data is exciting , maybe by winter i may just

make a forecast when i get more confident, and i would be more technical! ok its

a few lines but its a start on getting into this stuff, all great fun.

its the 3rd of june and some are saying summers a write off

Edited June 3, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Summer Sun]

Today's met office update for the 16 to 30 day forecast will be very interesting as if I remember correctly they only update that proper every Friday