Summer 2011

[The Northern Ramper]

I'm pretty sure it hasn't hit 30C here, about 70 miles north of Coventry, since 1990 . June snow, July maxes as low as 9C, 5am scrapings of ice off cars in the valleys in August and 8 days of persistent fog / low cloud is a british summer at it's ugliest. However, I think the altitude could be to blame here, which Coventry simply doesn't have.

2003? It was mid 30's almost everywhere.

[Ben_Cambs]

I suspect 30C has not been achieved in most parts of the Midlands since July 2006. 30C is usually achieved a couple of times a year in parts of the South + South East though a month such as July 2006 when synoptics were favourable, 30C + occured widely on numerous occasions across England and Wales in particular. So the liklehood of 30C occuring in the Midlands this summer may not be too high but under the right synoptics it can certainly be achieved.

Edited April 14, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Backtrack]

As a rough guide to what can be achieved, Kent is the UK record holder for the highest temperature, which stands as 38.1C!!

[SP1986]

Was just searching for some long-term seasonal forecasts. Not sure how much faith to put in such predictions at this point, but nonetheless I found this and thought some might find it interesting: http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

I think that's a fair forecast, whether or not it'll come true is another thing, far too often you see companies going for the most speculative forecast record this and that, and while I'm sure the press will mistake this forecast for BBQ summer the actually content is theoretically plausible.

Net-weather's forecasts also carry an element of reality, which is refreshing!

[damianslaw]

Perhaps we will see the warmest settled conditions reserved for the peak holiday months of July and August instead of earlier in the summer. Recent summers have seen some very poor Augusts and July in the last four years esp in the NW has been shocking. Though I must say I much prefer my sunny warm settled weather in May and June - something special about those two months, by July and August everything has lost its fresh greeness and the birds stop singing and the lakes becomes too busy and the light isn't as good and skies tend to be much hazier. Can't beat a sunny warm day in late May or early June, the best time of year in my book.

[Summer of 95]

I suspect 30C has not been achieved in most parts of the Midlands since July 2006. 30C is usually achieved a couple of times a year in parts of the South + South East though a month such as July 2006 when synoptics were favourable, 30C + occured widely on numerous occasions across England and Wales in particular. So the liklehood of 30C occuring in the Midlands this summer may not be too high but under the right synoptics it can certainly be achieved.

Yes, no 30C here since July 2006, and no 25C in August since 2007.

Before 2006 it was about 50/50 whether a year reached 30C here; once or twice in an average summer we'd get a "Spanish Plume" or lasting anticyclone that at least made 28-29C certain, 30 possible. The only exceptions between 1990-2006 were 1993, 1998 and 2002 which maxed at around 27, and I thought them poor summers at the time. Surely we can't have a 4th August in a row fail to reach 25C?

[Bottesford]

Perhaps we will see the warmest settled conditions reserved for the peak holiday months of July and August instead of earlier in the summer. Recent summers have seen some very poor Augusts and July in the last four years esp in the NW has been shocking. Though I must say I much prefer my sunny warm settled weather in May and June - something special about those two months, by July and August everything has lost its fresh greeness and the birds stop singing and the lakes becomes too busy and the light isn't as good and skies tend to be much hazier. Can't beat a sunny warm day in late May or early June, the best time of year in my book.

Couldn't agree more - I must prefer my summer late May to early July. I think it's the combination of new growth, the presence of the swifts and the fact you know it's still getting lighter with plenty of light and summer still to go. The long evenings add to this magic. By August evenings are getting shorter and things have that beginning of the end feeling so although I'd like a good August I'd happily sacrifice it for a good May, June & July.

[Costa Del Fal]

no 25C in August since 2007.

Wow, no 25c since 2007 is bad. In the last 3 if we have reached 30c we have got very close to. Last May for example got about 28c here.

[Anti Boring Weather]

what about the poor kids who are on their holidays in august and cant enjoy good weather as over the last few years our only hot weather came in june or july.

its easy to say we would prefer warmth and sun in may or june, but then we would moan come mid aug that we are due another hot spell. its a bit like this winter just gone we had the coldest december for 100 years but by feb we were getting fed up with the lack of snow.

[HotCuppa]

after a very warm spring, i still going for a much drier and cooler than average winter. I think that before or by the start of summer hose pipe bans will be firmly in place the breadth of the country (England and possibly parts of Wales). Last year according to United Utilities we broke a 120 year dry spell period, which lasted from February right through to July.

So far we've had a bit of light drizzle, wish I could call it light rain but I just cant.

Warm spring, cool summer as the saying goes..and I am expecting a frigid winter this year just as Joe B stated before he got sacked for speaking the truth about global cooling.

I reckon 22/25C top NW England, might be a bit below that tho. So far throughout this spring it really hasn't been all that warm up here, nowhere near the Midlands or South of England

temperatures. Max temp 18.9C thus far, with the average only being 14.6C.

what about the poor kids who are on their holidays in august and cant enjoy good weather as over the last few years our only hot weather came in june or july.

its easy to say we would prefer warmth and sun in may or june, but then we would moan come mid aug that we are due another hot spell. its a bit like this winter just gone we had the coldest december for 100 years but by feb we were getting fed up with the lack of snow.

You can take them abroad, plenty of warmth in Florida during July / August. August is an odd month, for the last 6 or 7 years especially up here, its not a month one thinks of as being roasting, in fact if anything the last month of Summer (September tends to give warm to very warm summer days and mild cool night.) The thing I absolutely hate about summers is anything about 27C with overnight temperatures being only slightly cooler than day time at 19/20C) However I'd take 26C / dry / cloudless summer day and mild cool evenings..and lets not forget we stand the best chance of the year for severe thunderstorms when they happen :)nothing worse than trying to get the kids to sleep in sweltering heat! We had to have an AC installed early last year, so we'd never have to put up with heat issues again..oh well)

BTW nights actually begin to get shorter mid June ;-)

Edited April 14, 2011 by HotCuppa

[Anti Boring Weather]

great ive paid £50 for water at my alltotmant and they might have to turn the taps off hopefully we see a deluge sometime in may or june but hope wont change the weather.:unsure:

after a very warm spring, i still going for a much drier and cooler than average winter. I think that before or by the start of summer hose pipe bans will be firmly in place the breadth of the country (England and possibly parts of Wales). Last year according to United Utilities we broke a 120 year dry spell period, which lasted from February right through to July.

So far we've had a bit of light drizzle, wish I could call it light rain but I just cant.

Warm spring, cool summer as the saying goes..and I am expecting a frigid winter this year just as Joe B stated before he got sacked for speaking the truth about global cooling.

I reckon 22/25C top NW England, might be a bit below that tho. So far throughout this spring it really hasn't been all that warm up here, nowhere near the Midlands or South of England

temperatures. Max temp 18.9C thus far, with the average only being 14.6C.

You can take them abroad, plenty of warmth in Florida during July / August. August is an odd month, for the last 6 or 7 years especially up here, its not a month one thinks of as being roasting, in fact if anything the last month of Summer (September tends to give warm to very warm summer days and mild cool night.) The thing I absolutely hate about summers is anything about 27C with overnight temperatures being only slightly cooler than day time at 19/20C) However I'd take 26C / dry / cloudless summer day and mild cool evenings..nothing worse than trying to get the kids to sleep in sweltering heat! We had to have an AC installed early last year, so we'd never have to put up with heat issues again..oh well)

BTW nights actually begin to get shorter mid June ;-)

the weather hasnt been that great down here over the past few years in july and august too plus i dont have kids yet and florida is way to expensive

[Alex]

2009 was ok I'n Essex ESP August, 2010 apart from august was brilliant! We had a 20-25 day spell with temps over 25c and at times nearing or hitting 30c.

I really want to see a significant heatwave this year maybe 35c+?

[Bottesford]

2009 was ok I'n Essex ESP August, 2010 apart from august was brilliant! We had a 20-25 day spell with temps over 25c and at times nearing or hitting 30c.

I really want to see a significant heatwave this year maybe 35c+?

You need a long dry period before the heatwave itself for that (dry land heats up faster). If things carry on then maybe but long way to go before we can get those sorts of temperatures! It's like saying it'll be a freezing winter just because of lots of frosts in October (although it does help the SSTs of course). We shall see...

[marksp]

Couldn't agree more - I must prefer my summer late May to early July. I think it's the combination of new growth, the presence of the swifts and the fact you know it's still getting lighter with plenty of light and summer still to go. The long evenings add to this magic. By August evenings are getting shorter and things have that beginning of the end feeling so although I'd like a good August I'd happily sacrifice it for a good May, June & July.

have to agree with these sentiments, hot augusts are great but becauce of the lenghing daylight late May and June can be fantastic for warm sunny weather, and long, long lazy days.Once you get to mid august it dos'nt matter how hot the days are the evenings are drawing in, you know what i mean, get up in the morning in mid august and theres condensation on the car windows, and yet late warmth in mid september into early october can be great to, hopefully a pre cursor to a good long cold winter.

[conor123]

Im just hoping this Summer that we don't days like today which plagued about 90% of July - Mid August here, the less of the nothingness weather with overcast skies this year the better.

I would personally like a record breakingly sunny Summer, with a mix of fresh sunny days around 19-22c and then some real scorching sunny days (25c +) with any rainfall arriving at night or in the form of thunderstorms, id be very happy with that all summer long.

Hopefully a dry sunny V Festival to in August this year, it was decent enough in 2009 but last year was pretty poor with rain on and off all weekend and high humidity which meant things never dried out when the sun finally came out for a while on Sunday before the washout of the month sunday night :lol:

[Eabie]

I hope for thundery weather. Even if it's fairly minor, I don't care. Last year I started to keep a log of every instance in which I hear so much as a rumble in the clouds, and I enjoy writing in it. lol.

[Anti Boring Weather]

what i dont want to see its lots of cloudy humid days as they are pointless and good for nothing no sun and no rain is annyoing. A good mix is obvioulsly the best case scernrio of warm/hot sunnys days 24/28 c and thunderstorms mainly at night or evening, along with cooler fresher days with a mix of sun and showers even some hail mixed in.

BUT i would like to have a couple of days when we see 35 c as i like my extremes

Edited April 14, 2011 by Anti Boring Weather

[Harve]

2003? It was mid 30's almost everywhere.

I think it came close, but didn't quite reach 30C. I've never taken official recordings though, maybe Terminal Moraine can help as I reckon he lives close to me, and at a similar altitude (I got the 'no 30C since 1990' statistic from one of his posts).

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Tyne and Wear/Durham area didn't reach 30C during August 2003- even Durham, which is quite far inland, only managed 28.6C:

http://www.geography.dur.ac.uk/projects/weather/ArchivedWeatherData/2003WeatherData/tabid/688/Default.aspx

I can confirm that many coastal parts of that region haven't reached or exceeded 30C since the 3rd August 1990 (when Durham reached 32.5C and, according to Dennis Wheeler, Sunderland made 33.0C), although the 18th August 1996 managed it locally. Upwards of about 5 miles inland, though, August 1995 and July 2006 both managed maxima over 30C.

It appears that the 3rd August 1990 remains unbeaten over most of northern England- most sites in north-west England also saw readings on that day that haven't been approached since.

[reef]

The Tyne and Wear/Durham area didn't reach 30C during August 2003- even Durham, which is quite far inland, only managed 28.6C:

http://www.geography.dur.ac.uk/projects/weather/ArchivedWeatherData/2003WeatherData/tabid/688/Default.aspx

I can confirm that many coastal parts of that region haven't reached or exceeded 30C since the 3rd August 1990 (when Durham reached 32.5C and, according to Dennis Wheeler, Sunderland made 33.0C), although the 18th August 1996 managed it locally. Upwards of about 5 miles inland, though, August 1995 and July 2006 both managed maxima over 30C.

It appears that the 3rd August 1990 remains unbeaten over most of northern England- most sites in north-west England also saw readings on that day that haven't been approached since.

On 3rd August 1990 it reached 34.0C here, a record that stands to this day. Indeed, we havent even come close since, with the two warmest days since being 6th August 2003 (30.9C) and 18th August 1996 (30.5C) - so I can well believe many areas in Northern England havent hit 30C since then.

Even here, we've only recorded temperatures of 30C and above on 9 occasions in 29 years and as mentioned above, only the 1990 occasion was above 31C. It makes the 1990 event even more notable, to reach so widely above 32C.

[SP1986]

This part of Northern England registered just shy of 35C in 2006.. although we are quite well known heat spot (relative to Northern England), and besides geographically here is not really northern England in a sense.

Usually here we record 30C at least once a year, but we havent managed to properly for maybe 4-5 years now.

[Scorcher]

Yes I think it's probably not wise to generalise about the weather across the North of England- there are huge variations between the south of the region and the north as well as between inland and coastal areas in hot spells. During hot spells Manchester Airport sees temperatures above 30C relatively frequently, with 30C being exceeded 5 times during July 2006 and several times during August 2003. Hot spells in August 1995 and August 1999 also produced temperatures of 30C+ and there have been numerous occasions when 29C was reached in other years. Once you go north of Greater Manchester/Merseyside the number of occurrences of 30C+ days drops dramatically.

[William of Walworth]

Not sure how much faith to put in such predictions at this point, but nonetheless I found this and thought some might find it interesting: http://www.positivew...ge-Forecast.php

Very interesting!!

I'd enthusiastically go with that this year, the minor (hoped for!!) tweak of a slightly better late June .... any views on Positive Weather here being unrealistically optimistic, folks?

Edited April 15, 2011 by William of Walworth

[mushymanrob]

. Though I must say I much prefer my sunny warm settled weather in May and June - something special about those two months, by July and August everything has lost its fresh greeness and the birds stop singing and the lakes becomes too busy and the light isn't as good and skies tend to be much hazier. Can't beat a sunny warm day in late May or early June, the best time of year in my book.

Couldn't agree more - I must prefer my summer late May to early July. I think it's the combination of new growth, the presence of the swifts and the fact you know it's still getting lighter with plenty of light and summer still to go. The long evenings add to this magic. By August evenings are getting shorter and things have that beginning of the end feeling so although I'd like a good August I'd happily sacrifice it for a good May, June & July.

add me to the list of those who fully agree with you ! .... by august ive lost interest in summer style outdoor life for the very reasons you two have highlighted.

my thoughts for this coming summer arnt very good. we are currently having superb 'summer' synoptics right now... a just cannot see it lasting, nor returning. ive said many times that i 'believe' in the pattern theory whereby a pattern type of synoptics hold for 'x' length of time, before changing. this has produced relentless wetness in past summers, long periods of blocking, long periods of atlantic... etc... i cannot see this current high pressure/dry dominated pattern lasting into the heart of summer. will it 're-set' if theres a blip?..possibly, but i doubt it.

im certain then that this summer will most likely be a washout... i hope im wrong.

[Terminal Moraine]

im certain then that this summer will most likely be a washout... i hope im wrong.

Of course I hope you're 100% right but it isn't always the case that warm, dry weather in spring leads to a cool, wet summer. Back in the mists of time 1893, 1921 and 1949 are prime examples of fine, warm weather lasting throughout the summer. More recently 1959, 1976 and 1995 saw generally fine. warm springs lead into dry, hot summers.

If I had the CET and rainfall series in front of me I could probably pick out the same number of examples where fine dry springs led to cool wet summers so not much to be read into it either way.

I do however agree with your basic premise that recent years have tended to see pattern changes persist for some time, so a change in May or June could well scupper the rest of the summer from your point of view.