Summer 2011

[Alex]

Croatian weather give it a break, what backup do you have for any of your predictions? I see you've upgraded our summer prospects lol!

[Costa Del Fal]

Now i know the CFS model perhaps isnt the most reliable model on the planet but its useful for trends and ive regularly been following it over the last few weeks. It is very keen on High pressure domination throughout the summer, with low pressures very infrequent. Not saying at all this is how the summer will go but it has really been quite consistently going for a dry theme and quite often very warm-hot.

[CroatianWeather]

Alex....what backup I need????

Backup is 2007 summer.......isn't it enough....

I know , you think ,as now in April you have some warmth that means summer will be hot....

no,that doesn't mean........but we'll see....I will contact you in September

and I put fingers up for you...wish you hot and dry summer ..... bye

Edited April 21, 2011 by CroatianWeather

[lukemc]

Hi,

Talking of the warm (possibly record warm spell in April) does anyone think that thier could be a link between a very warm April and poor or washout summers? Personally I think thier is no link and a warm April is no more likley to be followed by a cool and wet summer than a warm one but I do think the experience of 2007 with a record warm April followed by a poor summer with exceptional rainfall has got some people concerned - people are starting to ask me "is this our summer and is this all that we will get?" but I cannot see any scientific explination to why a warm April will be followed by a poor summer - indeed if we can get a record hot month in April we could also get a record hot month in July too which could actually make it more likley that we will get a hot summer especially if we get a run of above average months again - I think we have been above average since February (was March above average?). It will be interesting to hear peoples views on the possible iink but as I have mentioned I do not subscribe to it myself - I think that the summer of 2007 makes people seem to assume that a hot April =poor summer just in the same way that winter 2010-11 could be used to support a theory that if you get a winter cold spell early on in the winter (i.e. before Christmas) the rest of the winter will be mild even though the winter we have had was pretty exceptional.

Luke

[Lake District Blizzard]

Alex....what backup I need????

Backup is 2007 summer.......isn't it enough....

I know , you think ,as now in April you have some warmth that means summer will be hot....

no,that doesn't mean........but we'll see....I will contact you in September

and I put fingers up for you...wish you hot and dry summer ..... bye

just because 2007 was a good april turning into a poor summer doesnt mean that is the usual trend. . . 2003, 1999,1997,1995,1990,1984,1955,1949,1933 all had dry/warm aprils that lead to some decent to outstanding summers

[conor123]

Its more the fact that every month since December has been drier than average here that concerns me, in fact theres been very few wet periods since the atlantic withered away in December 2009 here.

[Summer of 95]

I can't really see why anyone considers 1997 a good summer to be honest, a famously bad June followed by an average July and an August that though warm was often wet, humid and dull (an August 2004 taster if you like) isn't my idea of a decent summer.

1984 though had a decent April and warm August, and May seems to have been the reverse of the last two summers; sunny and dry in the NW, dull and wet in the SE. Even here seems to have been on the right side of the split sunshine and rainfall-wise; 44 mm and 187 hrs at Shawbury- though the mean maximum of 14.9 is on the low side for May. Sounds like we could get easterly/NE'ly months without North Sea Muck reaching the west Midlands back then.

[Alex]

I'm sure 1997 Was a record month I'n august! June and July were poor but may was ok!

[ZONE 51]

The theory on the summer of 2007 is interesting, but we are in a different pattern since 2009! i think their is the real possibility of a long hot very dry summer with thunderstorms being quite electricaly amazing due to upper dust from dry weather? not sure, its just that during the severe thunderstorms of the 80s i remember the most colourful lightning and loudest racketing thunder at night and these lasting for many hours, the point is here that the summers were very dry when i remember the most violent storms, like in 2006 for example it ended in the an incredible storm! maybe no link but just a thought on what drought conditions do to the atmosphere affecting the thunderstorms lightning color and loudness.

Edited April 22, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[SimonR]

I can't really see why anyone considers 1997 a good summer to be honest, a famously bad June followed by an average July and an August that though warm was often wet, humid and dull (an August 2004 taster if you like) isn't my idea of a decent summer.

Maybe it was quite different in your neck of the woods, but I seem to remember that "famously bad June" actually being really good for the first two weeks (I was just finishing my first year at Manchester Uni during then so if it was good there, it must have been pretty fine for the rest of the UK!) - I think we all pretty much agree the rest of the month was awful everywhere.

July was good enough in London after June's decline continued into the first week, if a bit bland and being a slightly less sunny retread of July 96 without that month's hot spells, but it was at least warm and dry for the most part, mostly low to mid 20s.

August was the second hottest on record, with plenty of hot days exceeding 25C and a few surpassing 30C well into the second half (when we usually expect things to cool down), with no shortage of sunshine and I certainly don't remember much rain either, so I'm not sure how you could compare it to 2004.

And if you're including months that have summery spells (and some years have actually been warmer than some if not all of the so-called summer months), September was very decent, dry, settled and sunny, which after a series of distinctly cool and/or patchy Septembers was a precursor to the Septembers we have been spoilt with practically every year in the last decade (in fact since then I only remember 2000 being distinctly sub-par).

So all in all, that to me constitutes a pretty decent if inconsistent summer at least in the SE, although in comparing it to other good "non-classic" summers in the 90s, 1994 and 1996 fare better.

Incidentally, whilst we're comparing past Aprils to summers can anyone remember the stats/overall feel for April 1990? I remember it being pretty poor during on a fortnight trip to the Lakes a week before and after Easter (I think it even snowed around the 17th/18th on the ascent to Stickle Tarn) but then April 1984 seems to have been better than I remembered based on similar circumstances.

[Weather-history]

Manchester summers ranked in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom according to the summer index

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

1947 255

1933 251

1901 249

1921 249

2003 247

1925 246

2006 246

1996 245

1935 243

1994 240

1934 238

1940 238

1941 236

1970 235

1969 234

1973 234

1999 234

1997 232

1990 229

1917 228

1926 227

2005 224

1905 223

1932 223

1945 223

1967 223

1977 223

1914 222

1992 222

1908 220

1960 217

1950 216

1957 216

1968 215

1906 214

1942 214

1937 213

1939 213

1904 212

1929 211

2001 211

1903 209

1943 209

1991 207

1913 205

1971 205

1919 203

1961 203

1982 203

1951 201

1918 200

1944 200

2002 200

1930 199

1974 199

1979 199

1952 198

2000 198

1928 197

1962 197

1964 197

2004 197

1915 196

1981 196

1902 195

1963 194

1993 194

2009 194

1953 193

1966 192

1998 192

1988 191

2010 191

1910 190

1936 190

1965 189

1986 189

1916 188

1972 185

1958 184

1985 180

1922 178

1938 177

1948 176

1927 175

1920 174

1923 174

2007 174

1931 173

1978 173

1980 173

1909 171

1946 170

1987 169

2008 168

1924 158

1912 156

1956 155

1907 147

1954 143

The last 4 summers have averaged 181, this compares to the 182 of the "diabolical 4" of 1985 to 1988

The summers of 1994-97 averaged 253

[Lake District Blizzard]

Maybe it was quite different in your neck of the woods, but I seem to remember that "famously bad June" actually being really good for the first two weeks (I was just finishing my first year at Manchester Uni during then so if it was good there, it must have been pretty fine for the rest of the UK!) - I think we all pretty much agree the rest of the month was awful everywhere.

July was good enough in London after June's decline continued into the first week, if a bit bland and being a slightly less sunny retread of July 96 without that month's hot spells, but it was at least warm and dry for the most part, mostly low to mid 20s.

August was the second hottest on record, with plenty of hot days exceeding 25C and a few surpassing 30C well into the second half (when we usually expect things to cool down), with no shortage of sunshine and I certainly don't remember much rain either, so I'm not sure how you could compare it to 2004.

And if you're including months that have summery spells (and some years have actually been warmer than some if not all of the so-called summer months), September was very decent, dry, settled and sunny, which after a series of distinctly cool and/or patchy Septembers was a precursor to the Septembers we have been spoilt with practically every year in the last decade (in fact since then I only remember 2000 being distinctly sub-par).

So all in all, that to me constitutes a pretty decent if inconsistent summer at least in the SE, although in comparing it to other good "non-classic" summers in the 90s, 1994 and 1996 fare better.

Incidentally, whilst we're comparing past Aprils to summers can anyone remember the stats/overall feel for April 1990? I remember it being pretty poor during on a fortnight trip to the Lakes a week before and after Easter (I think it even snowed around the 17th/18th on the ascent to Stickle Tarn) but then April 1984 seems to have been better than I remembered based on similar circumstances.

Yes you were right in The Lakes there were Northerly winds to start the month with snow showers widely reported on the 4th, but high pressure mid-month gave light easterly winds and a warm sunny spell began on the 22nd, with Keswick reaching 24.1 and Ambleside 23.8 on the 30th

Edited April 22, 2011 by rjd1000

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the Tyne and Wear area I quite enjoyed the first 10 days of June 1997- it began quite cold and cloudy due to onshore winds but it was sunny and warm by the 4th, and mostly warm, sunny weather continued through to the 10th with occasional sharp showers on the evenings of the 6th-9th, which included thunder on the 7th. However, slow moving fronts brought dull wet weather on the 11th-13th and the rest of the month became increasingly dull, cold and wet, though there was another warm sunny thundery interlude around the 16th. The 22nd-30th was particularly dull and cold, and the 25th-30th was particularly wet.

Re. April 1990, that sounds like it was a very interesting month with plenty of sunshine in most regions, but unfortunately it happened before I started taking regular observations.

[lukemc]

Hi,

I know that this theory might not be true and I personally believe it is not but I did read in a post on this forum from summer 2007 that someone back then suggested a theory that the warm sea surface temperatures caused by the warm spring in NW Europe could have been a contributory factor to the poor/washout summer that year in that the warm SSTs could have either affected the position of the jetstream or have helped provided "fuel" in terms of moisture for the slow moving low pressures making thier way across the British Isles leaving the coupious amounts of rainfall. Does anyone think that thier could be some basis in this theory. Also for Summer 2006 I do remember a similar theory for why August was nowhere near as good as July - again it was the heatwave increasing the SST's and fueling the moisture available to the jetstream or encouraging easier formation of low pressure systems in the Atlantic - it was like the intense heat in July had "burnt itself out" by August - does anyone have any evidence to back up that theory.

Luke

[Scorcher]

Hi,

I know that this theory might not be true and I personally believe it is not but I did read in a post on this forum from summer 2007 that someone back then suggested a theory that the warm sea surface temperatures caused by the warm spring in NW Europe could have been a contributory factor to the poor/washout summer that year in that the warm SSTs could have either affected the position of the jetstream or have helped provided "fuel" in terms of moisture for the slow moving low pressures making thier way across the British Isles leaving the coupious amounts of rainfall. Does anyone think that thier could be some basis in this theory. Also for Summer 2006 I do remember a similar theory for why August was nowhere near as good as July - again it was the heatwave increasing the SST's and fueling the moisture available to the jetstream or encouraging easier formation of low pressure systems in the Atlantic - it was like the intense heat in July had "burnt itself out" by August - does anyone have any evidence to back up that theory.

Luke

On the 2006 theory- the reason I would strongly doubt this is that September ended up being exceptionally warm and warmer than August, it seems the warmth had a break for a month and then returned in September.

[damianslaw]

Yes you were right in The Lakes there were Northerly winds to start the month with snow showers widely reported on the 4th, but high pressure mid-month gave light easterly winds and a warm sunny spell began on the 22nd, with Keswick reaching 24.1 and Ambleside 23.8 on the 30th

The warmth of the 30th Apr 1990 continued into the first three-four days of May - a lovely early heatwave. I remember it well, I think temps got close to 27 or even 28 degrees.

April 1984 was a good month in the lakes sheltered from the easterly winds giving a very dry sunny month which continued in May. Although only 6 at the time it was the first summer I remember vividly, and there are pictures of me on our local park during the summer with the grass brown - takes alot of dry weather for this to happen in the lakes. I think the last summer to do this was 1995.

Back to the hear and now, I heard this year is going to be a very active hurricane season. I read somewhere that active hurricane seasons usually follow warm dry summers in these parts. The last active season was 2005 which followed a very good summer. Also active hurricane seasons are good precursors to cold winters and much atlantic blocking - or so I have heard.

[AderynCoch]

2007 was an active season, so bang goes that theory!

[damianslaw]

2007 was an active season, so bang goes that theory!

Oh was it - i can't remember. I don't think it was quite as active as 2005. Perhaps what I read and heard was very active seasons follows good summers and precede cold winters - would be interested to test this theory.... anyone have any records of the relative activeness of hurricane season.

Mind the last couple of years have been preety quiet seasons, yet we have seen two winters with sustained very cold weather.. so your theory may well be right.

Edited April 22, 2011 by damianslaw

[Kentish Kiwi]

Just noticed we have a couple of 'May Bugs' (otherwise known as Cockchafers) banging against our windows (attracted to the light). What's interesting is how early they are this year, I seem to remember them only coming out in June last year... Certainly the earliest in the season I've noticed them in the 6 years I've been in the UK.

[Weather-history]

Also for Summer 2006 I do remember a similar theory for why August was nowhere near as good as July - again it was the heatwave increasing the SST's and fueling the moisture available to the jetstream or encouraging easier formation of low pressure systems in the Atlantic - it was like the intense heat in July had "burnt itself out" by August - does anyone have any evidence to back up that theory.

Luke

As North Easterly Blast keeps reminding us of pear-shaped winters, you surely can get pear-shaped summers and taking just the summer months, summer 2006 was a pear-shaped summer. Summer 1921 was another with the August being very disappointing.

Summers 1930, 1950, 1960, 1970 and 1992 are other examples of pear-shaped summers.

Edited April 23, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

Rainfall and sunshine wise, some parts of the country (particularly the W and SW) have also seen prominent examples in the last four years, with plenty of dry sunny weather in June making way for dull wet weather in July and August.

[MP-R]

Rainfall and sunshine wise, some parts of the country (particularly the W and SW) have also seen prominent examples in the last four years, with plenty of dry sunny weather in June making way for dull wet weather in July and August.

Quite right. It seems to be no matter what happens, June is always the most reliable month for sunny weather here. Though there have been different combinations of summer months each year.

June & July 2006 very good; August 2006 not so good but not bad either

June & July 2007 bad/very bad; August 2007 considerably better but rather cool

June 2008 respectable; July & August 2008 progressively worse

June & August 2009 very nice and summery; July 2009 awful month in the middle

June 2010 very good; July & August 2010 progressively worse and cooler

What a better summer it would be if there could be heat, thunderstorms, rain and cooler interludes in every month - not each one for days on end.

[virtualsphere]

Rainfall and sunshine wise, some parts of the country (particularly the W and SW) have also seen prominent examples in the last four years, with plenty of dry sunny weather in June making way for dull wet weather in July and August.

I'd vouch for that. Here in SW Wales we had our first decent sustained summery weather here last year since 2006, and that was during May / June.

I don't think August 2007 was that bad here, but that might be just looking back through rose-tinted spectacles after the dire June and July. 2008 was pretty bad throughout, but June was better than July and August. June 2009 was ok, but not as good as 2010.

It would be nice to have a decent July here. The MetOffice anomaly maps show my location to have greater than 175% of average rainfall for July for the last four years!

[damianslaw]

We may be cursed this summer by the unusually warm April we are having. Look at the SST's in the mid atlantic they are rocketing at present thanks to the import of very mild tropical air from the azores - this may not bode well for us when we get to June. Cyclogenesis could be very strong just to our west thanks to the warmer than average SST's creating a strong temp gradient and increasing chance of low pressure developments.

Any others have thoughts on our warmer than average SST's over the mid atlantic may affect our summer..

[Costa Del Fal]

We may be cursed this summer by the unusually warm April we are having. Look at the SST's in the mid atlantic they are rocketing at present thanks to the import of very mild tropical air from the azores - this may not bode well for us when we get to June. Cyclogenesis could be very strong just to our west thanks to the warmer than average SST's creating a strong temp gradient and increasing chance of low pressure developments.

Any others have thoughts on our warmer than average SST's over the mid atlantic may affect our summer..

Whilst this point is valid im sure, i think the factors up in the skies above us in the Atmosphere are far more important. Obviously other very warm Aprils have had good summers. Its a sometimes you win them and sometimes you lose them season; summer.

Im very much keeping an eye on forecasts especially from GP regarding the summer. Hopefully some proper thoughts into June not too far away.