Summer 2011

[Guest]

Friday fairly warm at 26C - Saturday, almost the same level with some lightning in the evening with a short thundery shower.

Checked the weather for Capestang and the positions are pretty well reversed from normal.

I'm expecting a rainy season in June, possibly July as well, unless we have a repeat of 1959 but in my experience a warm dry spring is normally followed by a breakdown.

We will see.

[mushymanrob]

The two notably warm summers of recent times (2003 and 2006) both had early warm spells in April and May (with temperatures widely above 25C). There was also a hot spell in early May 1995 and 1997 also had a warm spell at the start of May. I'm sure I've heard a theory that early warm spells often precede warm summers- although 2007 demonstrated that this isn't always the case!

I have heard this theory well - but how well tested it is I don't know. The key word is 'spell', in those years mentioned the heat was relatively short-lived and not on the scale of this month or indeed 2007. Other warm spells in spring such as in early May 1990 also brought very good summer conditions. Last year we saw a mini heatwave in the tail end of spring -so I don't class this as an early warm spell - anyhow it was followed by an average summer. Other lengthy warm periods in spring i.e. Apr 1987, early May 08 and May 92 were followed by relatively poor summers. Perhaps what I am saying is a short lived mini heatwave at some stage between mid April and mid May is a possible good omen for the summer whereas a consistently warm period in April and first half of May is not - suggesting this year may be another summer dissapointment.

firstly...i wouldnt call 2006 a good summer, thats three months long, whilst june was ok, july was stunning, but august was rubbish! and 2003 was a funny summer, it was a late one with the best weather in august and september... that kind falls off the scale for me.

is there any correlation between decent periods in spring and poor summers? i agree with damianslaw. there isnt a direct correlation, but i think its more a case of 'most likely'... as ive espoused previously, i expect a pattern change away from dry, this will happen, its just a case of when.

funnily enough, most of my customers are elderly, everyone who has expressed a view on the weather thinks that 'this is it' and our summer will be poor. again, theres no science here, just experience. ok, 1976, 90, 95, proved to be the exception, id just suggest though that its more likely that we will have a poor summer then a repeat of those dry ones.

its been said that the overall pattern isnt one that would suggest a repeat of 2007, but tbh that could change... its only april.

[Weather-history]

There was also a hot spell in early May 1995 and 1997 also had a warm spell at the start of May. I'm sure I've heard a theory that early warm spells often precede warm summers- although 2007 demonstrated that this isn't always the case!

I think we need to separate here between warm spells in spring and warm months in spring. The Mays of 1995 and 1997 were close to average overall.

April 1984 has been quoted but it had a CET of 8.1

The springs of 1974 and 1980 by the way had notable dry spells but the summers were poor

The spring of 1912 was on the mild side with an exceptionally dry April but the summer was a disaster.

The answer is I don't think there is much correlation.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd vouch for that. Here in SW Wales we had our first decent sustained summery weather here last year since 2006, and that was during May / June.

I don't think August 2007 was that bad here, but that might be just looking back through rose-tinted spectacles after the dire June and July. 2008 was pretty bad throughout, but June was better than July and August. June 2009 was ok, but not as good as 2010.

It would be nice to have a decent July here. The MetOffice anomaly maps show my location to have greater than 175% of average rainfall for July for the last four years!

I recall that August 2007 was dry, fairly sunny and fairly cool across most parts of the country, although parts of the NW and SE were cloudy, so you may be remembering correctly.

[mushymanrob]

it would be interesting to know, the % of poor summers vs good summers that follow springs (or should i specify aprils and mays) that have good sunny warm spells in them.... i suspect that the majority of the time the % favours poor summers following sunny/warm april/mays. but most years we have a decent spell in april or may so im not sure what the criteria determining what a good spell would be...

[coldweatherfan]

i want a hot summer with thunderstorms but knowing here well probably get 18C and cloud everyday while the south east gets 30c and sun its just not fair is it

[conor123]

Whatever happens this Summer it can't be as bad as the recent ones in the second half on the pure basis that we had the dullest July on record and one of the dullest Augusts on record here in the space of two years.

A NW/SE split working the opposite way round must be overdue with here on the sunny side :lol:, the South Eastern members who can't understand how anyone could complain about last July need to experience a month like it to understand just how dreary a Summer month with just 80 hours sunshine, which about 90% of came before 9am and after 7pm with overcast skies all day long feels like :lol: oh, just the thought of it again is making me shiver with horror.

Id personally love all three summer months to have above 200 hours sunshine, above average temperatures, and still have average rainfall but this coming entirely from thunderstorms and occasional overnight cold fronts to give a balance between hot hazy 25c+ days and cooler fresh sunny days around 20c.

If we could get a spell of weather around 27c with unbroken sunshine like 22-23rd May last year on loop for the 2 weeks around the Summer equinox aswell that would be spectacular.

Edited April 24, 2011 by conor123

[coldweatherfan]

Whatever happens this Summer it can't be as bad as the recent ones in the second half on the pure basis that we had the dullest July on record and one of the dullest Augusts on record here in the space of two years.

A NW/SE split working the opposite way round would be nice with here on the sunny side :lol:, the South Eastern members who can't understand how anyone could complain about last July need to experience a month like it to understand just how dreary a Summer month of just 80 hours sunshine, which about 90% of came before 9am and after 7pm with overcast skies all day long feels like :lol: oh, just the thought of it again is making me shiver with horror.

too right and how often do i see forecasts saying 17c here and cloudy and then in london its 28c for a week theyre spoilt down there they are. i hope we see a 2006 if not then at least dry and cold would be better

[North-Easterly Blast]

As North Easterly Blast keeps reminding us of pear-shaped winters, you surely can get pear-shaped summers and taking just the summer months, summer 2006 was a pear-shaped summer. Summer 1921 was another with the August being very disappointing.

Summers 1930, 1950, 1960, 1970 and 1992 are other examples of pear-shaped summers.

No, I wouldn't call summer 2006 pear shaped - things only returned to about average in the August after an exceptionally warm and dry summer up to that point, before the warmest September on record came, and after that a very warm October. I would rather say that summer 2006 is very much the "summer" version of a winter like 1890-91, which had an average February in between a very cold Dec / Jan and then a cold spring.

You are right about 1930, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1992, they all had pretty warm spells in June and then deteriorated into nothing / cool weather in July / August. These five summers I would call very much the "summer" versions of the pear shaped winters of 2010-11, 1996-97, 1917-18, 1925-26, 1927-28 etc.

Not sure about the summer of 1921, that is really an example of a summer having a very warm spell in the middle with the rest of the summer not special. A bit like how winter 1986-87 is a winter that had an exceptionally cold spell mid-point with the rest of the winter not special.

As well as the above, looking at the summer months only, summer 2010 is also a cooler toned down version of 2006. June and July 2010 were fairly warm and largely dry months, in particular June, and then it turned cooler and wetter in August 2010.

Edited April 24, 2011 by North-Easterly Blast

[Sunshine]

Not sure about the summer of 1921, that is really an example of a summer having a very warm spell in the middle with the rest of the summer not special.

Summer 1999 would be another example with a warm July sandwiched in between an average June and August.

[Weather-history]

Not sure about the summer of 1921, that is really an example of a summer having a very warm spell in the middle with the rest of the summer not special. A bit like how winter 1986-87 is a winter that had an exceptionally cold spell mid-point with the rest of the winter not special.

June 1921 was exceptionally dry and reasonably sunny. Not sure why you persist on basing on how good a summer month just solely on temperatures?

June 1921 was a pretty good summer month.

Edited April 25, 2011 by Mr_Data

[SP1986]

I suspect there are correlations between X spring and X summer, but you have to delve down into specific patterns to a minute scale.. alas if we could do that though we could understand climate, and probably forecast the seasons.

I do suspect there are correlations, but far beyond our ability at the moment to grasp.

[William of Walworth]

firstly...i wouldnt call 2006 a good summer, thats three months long, whilst june was ok, july was stunning, but august was rubbish! and 2003 was a funny summer, it was a late one with the best weather in august and september... that kind falls off the scale for me.

is there any correlation between decent periods in spring and poor summers? i agree with damianslaw. there isnt a direct correlation, but i think its more a case of 'most likely'... as ive espoused previously, i expect a pattern change away from dry, this will happen, its just a case of when.

funnily enough, most of my customers are elderly, everyone who has expressed a view on the weather thinks that 'this is it' and our summer will be poor. again, theres no science here, just experience. ok, 1976, 90, 95, proved to be the exception, id just suggest though that its more likely that we will have a poor summer then a repeat of those dry ones.

its been said that the overall pattern isnt one that would suggest a repeat of 2007, but tbh that could change... its only april.

Bolded bit, being a slightly older person myself, I would also be afraidly tempted by the 'peaking too early' theory -- the 'using up far too much of our dryness, sunshine and High Pressure quota' well too early theory.

Another, and equally non scientific, theory is that we're well overdue a good all the way through summer ....

[conor123]

Were really not overdue a good summer in general but a good August and a poor June we are very much overdue.

Im still hoping we get a decent summer all the way through, a really wet spell is needed desperately here this May though, whilst April 2007 was exceptionally dry here the previous three months werent, unlike this year in which every month has seen below average amounts of rain here, March onwards especially.

[Thundery wintry showers]

it would be interesting to know, the % of poor summers vs good summers that follow springs (or should i specify aprils and mays) that have good sunny warm spells in them.... i suspect that the majority of the time the % favours poor summers following sunny/warm april/mays. but most years we have a decent spell in april or may so im not sure what the criteria determining what a good spell would be...

It's also difficult to categorise spells that only affected some of the country, e.g. the first half of May 2000 was very warm and sunny in some regions, but in some others, chiefly those near the North Sea, it was dry but very dull and warm mainly because of warm nights. April 2002 is another one- a very warm sunny month in most of England and Wales but a lot of cloud in Scotland. The first half of April 1995 was the warmest for the CET since 1945, though sunshine was generally plentiful only in central, southern and eastern regions, barring an interlude 12th-14th when nearly all regions were sunny.

If we take "notable warm, sunny spells lasting 1 week or more and affecting a large majority of the country", we should be able to add late April 1984, late May 1989, late April/early May 1990, second half May 1992, late April/early May 1995, last week May 1997, mid-May 1998, a spell in early May 2001, early to mid April 2007, and now the middle sector of April 2011. A mix of summers followed, so we can cast some doubt on how strong any relationship is.

It's fair to say that prolonged anticyclonic spells in spring usually are followed by a notable cyclonic spell sometime afterwards, but this can hold off until September or October (e.g. 1959, 1995) or wash out June only for high pressure to return during July (e.g. 1990), or at the other extreme it can come in for June/July like in 2007.

We could try looking at relationships between warm sunny Aprils and the following summers but again the results will probably be mixed as we have the likes of 1945, 1949, 1955, 1995 and 2003 to offset against the likes of 1948, 1982 and 2007 (I haven't mentioned 1984 and 1990 as those Aprils had warm days offset by cold nights).

[William of Walworth]

That sounds like very good sense overall TWS. In other words there are a whole range of possibilties for any kind of summer still to play for!

Edited April 28, 2011 by William of Walworth

[damianslaw]

It's also difficult to categorise spells that only affected some of the country, e.g. the first half of May 2000 was very warm and sunny in some regions, but in some others, chiefly those near the North Sea, it was dry but very dull and warm mainly because of warm nights. April 2002 is another one- a very warm sunny month in most of England and Wales but a lot of cloud in Scotland. The first half of April 1995 was the warmest for the CET since 1945, though sunshine was generally plentiful only in central, southern and eastern regions, barring an interlude 12th-14th when nearly all regions were sunny.

If we take "notable warm, sunny spells lasting 1 week or more and affecting a large majority of the country", we should be able to add late April 1984, late May 1989, late April/early May 1990, second half May 1992, late April/early May 1995, last week May 1997, mid-May 1998, a spell in early May 2001, early to mid April 2007, and now the middle sector of April 2011. A mix of summers followed, so we can cast some doubt on how strong any relationship is.

It's fair to say that prolonged anticyclonic spells in spring usually are followed by a notable cyclonic spell sometime afterwards, but this can hold off until September or October (e.g. 1959, 1995) or wash out June only for high pressure to return during July (e.g. 1990), or at the other extreme it can come in for June/July like in 2007.

We could try looking at relationships between warm sunny Aprils and the following summers but again the results will probably be mixed as we have the likes of 1945, 1949, 1955, 1995 and 2003 to offset against the likes of 1948, 1982 and 2007 (I haven't mentioned 1984 and 1990 as those Aprils had warm days offset by cold nights).

Other warm sunny spells lasting 1 week or more in recent springs which you failed to mention include mid April 2003 and the first half of May 2008.

[Milhouse]

Whatever happens this Summer it can't be as bad as the recent ones in the second half on the pure basis that we had the dullest July on record and one of the dullest Augusts on record here in the space of two years.

A NW/SE split working the opposite way round must be overdue with here on the sunny side :lol:, the South Eastern members who can't understand how anyone could complain about last July need to experience a month like it to understand just how dreary a Summer month with just 80 hours sunshine, which about 90% of came before 9am and after 7pm with overcast skies all day long feels like :lol: oh, just the thought of it again is making me shiver with horror.

Id personally love all three summer months to have above 200 hours sunshine, above average temperatures, and still have average rainfall but this coming entirely from thunderstorms and occasional overnight cold fronts to give a balance between hot hazy 25c+ days and cooler fresh sunny days around 20c.

If we could get a spell of weather around 27c with unbroken sunshine like 22-23rd May last year on loop for the 2 weeks around the Summer equinox aswell that would be spectacular.

I agree. Its always best to see a very good settled and warm spell around late June/early July as it really is the peak of summer. Of course the sun is at its strongest and although the warmest part of the year is in late July it still seems very appropriate that the 21st June should be hot and sunny.

[Milhouse]

Well we are inching ever closer to proper summer and still there is no end in sight to this prolonged dry and warm spell which began in mid March. Quite a few forumers predicted a cool and wet May but it hasnt materialised and it really doesnt look like it will. However i'm sure no one could have predicted the extent of the warmth that late April delivered and the fact that May will follow on from where April left off. Quite the opposite to what happened in 2007. The way things are going we could well see 30c being achieved in May and some very high temperatures reached in summer if this pattern persists.

[Rob]

Well we are inching ever closer to proper summer and still there is no end in sight to this prolonged dry and warm spell which began in mid March. Quite a few forumers predicted a cool and wet May but it hasnt materialised and it really doesnt look like it will. However i'm sure no one could have predicted the extent of the warmth that late April delivered and the fact that May will follow on from where April left off. Quite the opposite to what happened in 2007. The way things are going we could well see 30c being achieved in May and some very high temperatures reached in summer if this pattern persists.

I completely disagree with the highlighted part of your post, whilst we are at the beginning of May and it is settled, we can only really guarrantee with any form of accuracy that the settle conditions will last for the next 7 days. That still leaves 3 week s in may where things could become unsettled.

[reef]

I completely disagree with the highlighted part of your post, whilst we are at the beginning of May and it is settled, we can only really guarrantee with any form of accuracy that the settle conditions will last for the next 7 days. That still leaves 3 week s in may where things could become unsettled.

The first 7 days of May 2007 had no measurable rain here aswell, so things can change pretty fast.

This low stuck out to our west could well be the catalyst which changes our weather from the current warm, dry and settled pattern. If the Greenland high builds as the GFS keeps predicting, then we could be stuck in a 'no mans land' with slack low pressure not moving anywhere very much and associated bands of slow moving rain or showers.

At this stage though, it makes very little difference to what summer might do, as its still some 4 weeks away.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a brief forecast from my research for this summer:

Generally a rather warm summer with rainfall continuing somewhat below normal on average.

Expect anomalies to be rather small but in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 C deg above normal.

I don't foresee severe heat waves but do expect one or two spells with highs near 30 C for 3-4 days. If there is major or severe heat, I would look for that towards the end of July and in early August.

While rainfall will generally be below normal, it can always be excessive in one or two locations due to localized storms. In the pattern that I foresee, these locally heavy rainfalls might be more likely in the north of England and parts of southwest Scotland. But aside from that, I think modified or even severe drought may be the main story in terms of summer rainfall regimes.

Another trend of some significance may be that rainfall will be closer to normal in the first half of the season (from June through mid-July) and below normal late July into August. Any places currently dry or suffering drought may need to make the most of rains later this month and in June to avoid more serious drought issues later in the summer.

It would stand to reason that if these temperature and rainfall forecasts verified, sunshine amounts would be 10-20 per cent above average, at least.

This may be a fairly pleasant summer for most people, as long as you don't have water shortage issues.

Remember, this is a forecast and not a promise or a guarantee. I'll be as surprised as you will, if it verifies without substantial departures in details.

[summer blizzard]

Anologues for the March-April period.

mei + qbo

1976

1985

1999

2008

With the exception of 1976, all other anologues saw below average CET figures for June and August.

[Alex]

Anologues for the March-April period.

mei + qbo

1976

1985

1999

2008

With the exception of 1976, all other anologues saw below average CET figures for June and August.

Esp 2008, that was a very poor summer with a very southerly tracking jet although early may was good. What was the science behind this awful summer?

[summer blizzard]

Anologues for the March-April period.

mei + qbo

1976

1985

1999

2008

With the exception of 1976, all other anologues saw below average CET figures for June and August.

Would just like to add that based on Solar Flux data, 1999 is by far the best anologue.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data