London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-1-84.png?23-23

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110123/18/72/prectypeuktopo.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110123/18/84/prectypeuktopo.png

starting to look good

i still think the charts will upgrade further tomorrow and tuesday

yamkin i have sent you a im

Edited January 23, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-1-84.png?23-23

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110123/18/72/prectypeuktopo.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110123/18/84/prectypeuktopo.png

starting to look good

i still think the charts will upgrade further tomorrow and tuesday

yamkin i have sent you a im

JP, Just replied to your pm. I'm with you on this. We are entering very exciting times

[john pike]

still looks good for 26th-27th

fairly big spread on the 30th

i think it will be worth keeping an eye on the

ensembles for further developments later on

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

plus the fax charts which seem to be fairly

accurate at present

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

Edited January 23, 2011 by john pike

[Coast]

We are entering very exciting times

:lol: We are always entering exciting times Yamkin!!!!

Reminds me of watching Shaun White on Ski Sunday yesterday on his own personal snow ramp!!!

[Coast]

What's that old expression about when America sneezes?.........

- This still isn't set in stone and any deviation in the storm track will alter the forecast significantly.

- The area of heaviest snow is likely to be across southern and eastern areas with lighter amounts farther west and north. I can't even begin to talk about possible snow totals until the low track is established. There is likely to be a pretty sharp cutoff to the snowfall on the northwestern side especially.

- This is a Tuesday night and Wednesday storm with the bulk of the snow to fall Wednesday.

- Temps will be near freezing for the bulk of the first half of the storm and this could result in a heavy, wet snow for some. If this storm ends up putting parts of our region in the axis of heaviest totals... some tree and powerline issues could arise... especially in the higher elevations.

- The precipitation could start out as a mix before dynamic cooling kicks in changing the mix to snow. Northerly and northwesterly winds would then help with the cooling process as the low kicks into high gear just to our east.

- I want to stress this is NOT SET IN STONE and the track could still shift back to the east leaving us out of the heaviest axis of snow. That said... the clear trend puts parts of the tri state in the game for a significant snow event.

As you can imagine... the blog will kick things up a notch with updates on this possible winter storm. An upgrade to Alert is very possible later today as well, so check back for updates. Have a great Monday and take care.

http://www.wsaz.com/blogs/chrisbaileysblog/Light_Snow_Before_The_Big_Show_114469354.html

[lewis028]

So a light easterly later in the week, possible Thames streamer or maybe a light flurry, but atleast it will be cold, have been glued to the model thread, let's wait and see...

[snowbob]

So a light easterly later in the week, possible Thames streamer or maybe a light flurry, but atleast it will be cold, have been glued to the model thread, let's wait and see...

Yeah been reading up on that Lewis

Thought this thread would have been a bit more lively with this chance of a cold shot we may have

Anyway here's hoping ( thought at least yamkin would be ramping it lol.)

Where are ya yamkin

[yamkin]

Yeah been reading up on that Lewis

Thought this thread would have been a bit more lively with this chance of a cold shot we may have

Anyway here's hoping ( thought at least yamkin would be ramping it lol.)

Where are ya yamkin

Hi snowbob & co, Let's get ramping

Tuesday night will see the start of the colder air with the potential of snow later on in the week :o

I've been following BOM model and it really is setting a very interesting trend. Sit back and enjoy the BOM cold revolution :cold:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=30&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=30&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=42&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=42&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=60&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=60&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=84&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=84&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=90&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=90&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=1&carte=0

[snowbob]

That looks good mate

Do you think it's worth getting excited yet lol

[snowray]

What I do love about the BOM, and the 18z GFS is backing it up, is how the HP that was due to get stuck slap bang over us now gets stuck a bit further North and West, and the Low to the South just keeps on going with the Easterly. Uppers have also upgraded big time.

Can't help but feel that we might get a few moderate bursts of snow out of this lot, defo bank these runs and be very happy with a cm or 2 of the white stuff.....Have faith folkes!!

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

wednesday night to thursady looks decent

lets hope we get some precipitation

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60.gif

very cold sourced easterly showing

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

gfs 18z is a cold run :smiliz19:

getting there yamkin

a thames streamer i feel is possible or a kent streamer

[snowray]

That looks good mate

Do you think it's worth getting excited yet lol

Well The fabled Thames streamer is a very localised affair and its full inpact is quite often not shown by the models, strange that UKMO don't want to know! None the less they have warned the councils as Yamkin says, so maybe they are just in denial!!! hehe, "Ohhhhh NOOOOOO, nooooottt the SSSSEEEEEEEE again, DAMN!!!" :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

wednesday night to thursady looks decent

lets hope we get some precipitation

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60.gif

very cold sourced easterly showing

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

gfs 18z is a cold run :smiliz19:

getting there yamkin

a thames streamer i feel is possible or a kent streamer

Perfect conditions for a Thames Streamer, particularly when uppers are predicted -8/-10c, lots of instability in the Estuary, low due points, lovely!

Edited January 24, 2011 by snowray

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1862.png

charts are starting to show colder conditions for february

not going further as i feel this is where the charts get confused

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

if the lows to our south could push further North

i feel this could make friday an interesting day as well

we need to watch the updates on this

[lottiekent]

Exciting! We need a snowy reward after all this boring grey blah weather of late

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=132&mode=0&runpara=0

some of these are looking interesting in that they show extended cold

for the south east

its quiet in here tonight

[londonsnow]

well an interesting 18z for london and the southeast. a few runs of the gfs and ecm have drawn 528 air over our area, mostly kent. the north downs may be the prime target for some of the white stuff. we'll see. beyond that we'll see how the pv shapes up

[yamkin]

That looks good mate

Do you think it's worth getting excited yet lol

Hi snowbob, It is worth getting excited. The stregnth of the cold wind may beef up the Thames Estuary. I can see the three main models catching up with the BOM model

[snowray]

Tonights GFS 18z control run looking pretty tasy!

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

is it my imagination or are the london ensembles starting to extend

our cold spell.Also there seems to be more colder options

showing now :smiliz19:

[yamkin]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

is it my imagination or are the london ensembles starting to extend

our cold spell.Also there seems to be more colder options

showing now :smiliz19:

JP, This could intensify if the Thames Estuary kicks in

[john pike]

JP, This could intensify if the Thames Estuary kicks in

hi yamkin

i agree with what your thinking

time for my bed. see you all tomorrow

goodnight

[Jayces]

I know a few of you get very excited about the cold and especially the snow but there does not seem to be anything on the main models or the Meto updates to get excited about this week (a few light wintry flurries possible is not really exciting IMHO) and I think you may be getting people's hopes up prematurely.

We have cold wet rain forcast for the SE and that seems to be about it

If there is any snow it's going to be on high ground only but even that is not forecsat at the moment.

I fear it's just not cold enough.

Not trying to put a dampner but I don't believe there is going to be any snow this week sorry.

Edited January 25, 2011 by Jayces

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Some light flurries as denoted by MetO seems pretty reasonable. Frosts as well! It's certainly much better then the anti cyclonic dull weather recently. Sunshine & snow showers would be very welcomed personally. Anything wintry after the November/December we have experienced (measured just over a foot of snow! never before in my 27yrs alive) is a bonus. Esp after what some would term the "even larger teapot"

[Upgrade]

From the Daily Express!

WINTER is poised to make a dramatic return with plunging temperatures tightening their grip on Britain and northern Europe, leading forecasters said last night.

The US firm that predicted the big freeze of 2009-2010 as well as the recent pre-Christmas arctic conditions is now warning that we are in for another bitterly cold spell.

Weather Services International says that while most of Britain will be mild for much of February, winter will make a chilly comeback in March and last through into April.

The key factor is a change in what is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the atmospheric pressure phenomenon which blocked milder weather from reaching the UK before Christmas.

This left Britain prey to a stream of cold from the Arctic, before the NAO changed bringing us higher temperatures just before Christmas.

Last October WSI experts forecast that we faced a colder than normal winter, with two cold spells – at the beginning and end of the season.

At the time it said the figures used in its predictions were “at or near record levelsâ€.

December turned out to be the coldest on record with temperatures sinking as low as -21.1C in the Highlands and much of the country brought to a standstill for days by heavy snowfalls.

As the coldest weather for six years hit New York yesterday, the US experts said the Arctic airflow will be turned on again. WSI chief meteorologist Dr Todd Crawford said: “We think that this more atmospherically relaxed pattern will persist well into February, confining any below-normal temperatures to northern regions.

“At some point later in February or early March, we do expect a return to more strongly negative NAO conditions.

“At that point, we expect a return to more severe and widespread below-normal temperatures across much of Europe, lasting well into spring.â€

He warned: “The biggest uncertainty for the February forecast is that the strong negative NAO pattern will return more quickly than we currently expect.

“We are monitoring these developments daily going forward, and will be sending out alerts if we see any signs of the colder negative NAO pattern re-emerging.â€

The Met Office no longer issues public long-range forecasts after a series of errors that included predicting a “barbecue summer†that turned out to be a damp squib.

However it says that it warned the Cabinet Office in October of a very cold winter, particularly in the first few weeks. Its monthly prediction up to late February is for cold dry weather in the South and milder wetter weather in the North-west.

It says temperatures today may reach up to 8C (46F) but it will become colder later this week and over the weekend as high pressure settles over the UK.

That will leave most areas confined to a daytime maximum of around 3C (38F) falling to -2C at night, with fog, frost and a chance of snow flurries in the South.

WSI, which provides forecasts for many top US corporations, bases its forecasts on meteorological readings from around the world plus a comparison with similar weather patterns in the past.

The forecast of a return of winter will raise fears of the travel chaos seen in late November and through much of December when rail, road and air were badly disrupted.

Heathrow was virtually closed for five days, ruining the Christmas travel plans of tens of thousands of passengers. The disruption was so bad that the Commons Transport Select Committee is to hold an inquiry which will include scrutiny of weather forecasts and whether they were acted on.

[snowray]

Well Roger and Brian are still going for their Beast from the East February freeze so who knows what might happen, theres always March of course but by then I'm looking forward to the Spring realy.

In the meantime, NAE has PPN rates of snow over the region @ 12z Thurs of 1mm, well it would equate to 1cm of lying snow roughly, but say another cm fell over Weds night, and a bit more Thurs morning, well I'd say Croydon could end up with at least 2 1/2 cms of snow being the Snow Capital of the SE, hows that sound Yamkin!

Edited January 25, 2011 by snowray