London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[Kawaii]

Its gone really dark down here and theres a bucket load of rain.

[Mikel Nimbus]

There's some lovely Mammatus on the northern edge of this squall now being lit up by the setting sun.

Anyone know how I can add this to the NW gallery?

Edited January 14, 2011 by Mikel Nimbus

[lewis028]

Flash of lighting here followed by thunder, car alarms going of, well was not expecting this!

[spayne]

well that school run was very, very wet..!!!!!!......right on cue at 15:25, reception class out, flash of lightning followed by crash of thunder.....followed by 60 screaming kids......and some mums..!!! 2 more followed, then as we drove away.....the rain stopped. You gotta love our weather..!!!

[nicki myers]

Ha ha I was just teasing my son he's only 13 "Mum I just saw a loud flash of thunder" The lightening was in the distance we can see for miles over the roof tops!

[lutfishah]

10th of january I asked Piers Corbyn about the coming cold....

I asked him that models are showing cold coming but it also pushes the cold back with each run or looks like the models are not sure........

Here what he said...

Thanks Mr Syed. YES. Two things. (i) The MetO BBC forecast issued 1300 Wed 12th reduced Sat London Forecast temp from 12 (fc 12 hours earlier) to 10C. (ii) THEY ARE NOW ADMITTING (as 1300hrs GMT on BBC news24) IT WILL TURN COLD NEXT WEEK (date not given), map showed whole of Britain & Ireland in cold pool... So HERE WE GO AGAIN! I wrote on 9 Jan on the 'New Year...' thread:- EITHER Our 11-14 period (80% confidence in our long range) holds and the milder air is forced to stay South giving colder than standard maps; OR The mild largely gets through but it then turns much colder 15-17 Jan (85% confid). We also have continuing cold/very cold+snow later. Whatever way Joe's 'No more cold plunges' this winter assertion will not succeed I say with 99% confidence. Thanks Piers

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

gfs is not a cold outlier

in fact there are colder options :smiliz19:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

long way out but hopefully a trend the models start to agree on

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel2401.html

i posted these for the 23rd the other day and they were all over the place

these are for the 24th and they seem to have a much better agreement now

Edited January 14, 2011 by john pike

[Mikel Nimbus]

As a follow up to today's storms, my relatives flying back to Italy had their Ryanair plane struck by lightning over London and had to make a quick u-turn back for Stansted. Close shave!

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

18z ensembles for london starting to get colder from 19th onwards

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

high pressure over us but would start to feel cold

528 dam line getting closer from the east

now we have to watch where the high goes

i think the fax charts over the next few days

will be very interesting

[ZONE 51]

--WEATHERWATCH--

Sunday night Heavy rain.

~

=*COLDWATCH!*=

Next Week..

-Frost and sunny days

-Fog dense and lingering.

weatherwatch by nimbilus.

[yamkin]

Piers Corbyn along with Will Hand are going for much colder conditions starting next week. Here's the Latest from Piers Corbyn :cold:

JAN 2011 Advisory Note issued 14th Jan 2011 for Britain & Ireland and Europe.

The WeatherAction long range forecasts for the first two weather periods of Jan 2011 namely 1-5th and 6-10th have been reasonably well confirmed, in particular the period 6-10th for Britain & Ireland of a N/NE (cold) vs S/SW (mild) split with mild or very mild air at times attempting but failing to penetrate far North was very skillfully predicted.

However the 7 days 11-17th Jan (comprising periods 11-14th & 15-17th) has seen a continuation of the milder trend and is turning out notably milder than our long range forecast – despite the fact our USA extreme events forecast for same period went very well.

It now appears cold air will start advancing South again from Sunday 16th and the next weather periods starting 18th Jan will be back on track with a return of exceptionally harsh winter weather during the second half of January.

All December periods were essentially confirmed in terms of general temperatures for Britain & Ireland giving a success rate for the 48 days of Winter months so far up to 17th Jan of 41/48 = 85%.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=297&c=5

Edited January 15, 2011 by yamkin

[yamkin]

GFS 06Z is an upgrade Colder conditions looks like hitting us from the 19th Jan ECM 12Z is going to be interesting tonight

[Paul Sherman]

All December periods were essentially confirmed in terms of general temperatures for Britain & Ireland giving a success rate for the 48 days of Winter months so far up to 17th Jan of 41/48 = 85%.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=297&c=5

Only 85% Eh ??

He really is Slipping further down in my expectations

[Kentish Kiwi]

Rather breezy out today...

[john mac]

Eagerly awaiting the BBC London forecast in a munute

[Jayces]

Eagerly awaiting the BBC London forecast in a munute

I'm more interested in the one this time next week

[yamkin]

ECM 12Z is just :wub: :wub:

[ZONE 51]

Yamkin looking cold then! Keep posting the daily charts..

That was some little gale today! actually far windier than i expected here..infact quite rough since 7am to around 8pm sat!

Proberly 35-40gusts mph but was a tree mover for sure.

Anyway next week so great to see frost and sunshine back on, thats unless the dense fog lingers! looking fwd to the new cold spell, although i have been enjoying feeling warmer in the mild air! 0-;

Edited January 16, 2011 by nimbilus

[yamkin]

GFS, ECM & UKMO are all over the place.............Why, I do not know :wallbash:

Here's BOM to the rescue

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1&carte=0

[yamkin]

Piers Corbyn is still going for colder conditions...........

We are confidently expecting a return to cold/ very cold with snow this month especially from 20th and continuing into February. Beware of standard Met models and forecasts by association (ie on the lines of La Nina or some other descriptive 'parameter' of world weather is such and such NOW therefore We WILL be...etc) They generally all tend to the norm after a week or so or 'all stays as it is'.

[john mac]

I'm not sure anyone and draw any conclusions ATM with models all over the place this morning. Everything changing by the day

[Jayces]

Not sure about pinning your hopes on a model based on the otherside of the planet Yamkin.

The 6-15 outlook from the Meto that we had yesterday has been replaced already and our snow cruelly taken away as easily as it was tantilisingly offered yesterday.

Like many others I don't see anything to get excited about yet, this is far from nailed or even remotely possible at the moment.

I stand by my prevoius posts of this time next week if it's showing any signs of cold stuff and hopefully some of the white stuff for the week ahead then I will sit up and take notice.

[polarlow2]

Yamkin I know your ramping is much-loved on this thread, and that's fair enough, but it is a tad mis-leading. There is little to suggest a return to freezing weather (at the moment), and picking and choosing charts merely to back up what you would like to see won't make it so. This is in no way a pop at you, but un-based ramping for either mild or cold is often what begins the sniping which seems to take over the model thread.

Anyway - mild, dry and actually rather pleasant here, almost feels spring-like...

[yamkin]

Yamkin I know your ramping is much-loved on this thread, and that's fair enough, but it is a tad mis-leading. There is little to suggest a return to freezing weather (at the moment), and picking and choosing charts merely to back up what you would like to see won't make it so. This is in no way a pop at you, but un-based ramping for either mild or cold is often what begins the sniping which seems to take over the model thread.

Anyway - mild, dry and actually rather pleasant here, almost feels spring-like...

I quite understand, but the GFS, ECM & UKMO are up in the air at the moment. The MetO are changing their outlooks quite alot which seems to mean the model outputs are all over the place. Nothing mis-leading in my posts. One minute GFS & ECM are going for much colder conditions, then goes the other way. This has happened a few times lately. Piers Crobyn and Will Hand are still going for much colder conditions setting in before the end of January.

Watched my son play football this afternoon and it felt chilly in the gusty wind.

[ZONE 51]

All frost n fog and SUNSHINE! as we go through next week, in need of clear blue sky, don't see snow just yet not next wk anyway, but cold is coming and thats a start! snow may follow round the edge of east england from northsea heading right for us! its mid january its winter and the atlantics taking a break next week..