London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[Lazarus]

This from U.S.W...

First signs of "stratwarm" kicking on 12Z ECM. As early as 17th Jan Siberian

high extends west, so it could be an easterly block this time. However,

models will struggle with the details (GFS is e.g. due to large ensemble

spread early in FC) and we will have to see where the next block develops

but there are now signs in the operational models of a slow down in the

polar vortex affecting the circulation.

Despite what has been said on here, the warming continues apace

http://acdb-ext.gsfc...90n_50_2010.pdf

Even more pronounced at 10 and 30hPa.

No change to my forecast of a bitter spell of weather after 18th January for

reasons I have already discussed.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Edited January 10, 2011 by Lazarus

[yamkin]

This from U.S.W...

First signs of "stratwarm" kicking on 12Z ECM. As early as 17th Jan Siberian

high extends west, so it could be an easterly block this time. However,

models will struggle with the details (GFS is e.g. due to large ensemble

spread early in FC) and we will have to see where the next block develops

but there are now signs in the operational models of a slow down in the

polar vortex affecting the circulation.

Despite what has been said on here, the warming continues apace

http://acdb-ext.gsfc...90n_50_2010.pdf

Even more pronounced at 10 and 30hPa.

No change to my forecast of a bitter spell of weather after 18th January for

reasons I have already discussed.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Lazarus, Your post would be good on the model discussion thread as well

[yamkin]

ECM 12Z is looking good

Colder conditions from the 16th Jan :cold:

Edited January 10, 2011 by yamkin

[john mac]

We shall see yamkin, I think we're going to have to be patient on this one good reason for optimism though

[Great Plum]

The ECM does look good in its latter stages...

it's been a while since we have had such wild swings from FI output... what can be said, with increasing certainty is that sometime after the 17/20 January, we will not be in a wet and mild zonal pattern and some form of blocking looks like it will take over - it will be cooler - but just how cold?

[msx999]

i'll take mixed signals from the models rather that them all agreeing on a sustained mild spell.

Whilst I did say a few days ago to enjoy the higher temps - i can see myself needing my next snow fix soon,

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

i think uncertain comes to mind here

a change looks like happening from 17th-18th

to cooler weather but more runs needed to get

a clearer picture

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/

going by the fax charts it certainly looks wet and windy

up to saturday

in about 2 days time we should get a better idea of the

outlook as the fax charts will show the 17th by then

[john mac]

Morning all I'm out early this morning and quite suprised that the temp was so low at 2.5c

[yamkin]

All eyes on the ECM.....Let's see if it has sorted itself out as it is showing a good Scandi High with an Easterly ........No time for charts right now

Edited January 11, 2011 by yamkin

[Lazarus]

Well... lets see then! Here's Scott W & Richard Dixon of uk.sci.weather

>> Atlantic block, huge Scandinavian / Russian high - with a nice splodge

>> of -15C air (sorry can't remember the exact DAM number) advecting our

>> way. Fair agreement on GFS - at least for an Atlantic block...Shades

>> of 1963?

>>

>> If this comes off Will saw it coming even before the models....

>

> A tip of the hat to experience there if that comes off. An example of

> the difference between model-watching and model-interpreting...

>

> Re: your ECMWF comment above, you can see quite a change between the T

> +216 from Sunday and today's T+240:

>

> http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2011/01/09/basis00/euro/pslv/11011900_0900.gif

> http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2011/01/11/basis00/euro/pslv/11011900_1100.gif

>

[ZONE 51]

As this is the Cold Spell thread we might just miss the stuff from the mild zone then? can we chat about the rain and flooding potential, moderators?

[Coast]

can we chat about the rain and flooding potential

Thread already open here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67788-flooding-possible-this-week/

[Whereisthesnow?]

That's it for me for this year. Back in December.

[snow raven]

That's it for me for this year. Back in December.

Wow, throwing the towel in during the 2nd week of January....

Come on peeps, chin up, lets not give up quite yet. I know things are pointing to a disapointing January snow wise (what with being spoilt during December), but there is still February to get through, and March can well be known as a snowy month too :w00t:

[Great Plum]

Let's be honest, December was one of the 10 coldest and snowiest months of the last 100 years... To expect it to happen again straight away is really hoping in vain...

To the here and now, perhaps the next 5 days won't be as uber mild as first forecast... Nothing over 11c...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/gatwick_forecast_weather.html

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

if you look to the west we have the 528 dam line

coming towards the uk on the sunday fax chart

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=seatemps;sess=

sea temperatures look below average

be interesting to see what the fax charts

show on wednesday and thursday night

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

ensembles still have a big scatter from 18th so still

no real answers there yet

i still think people are writing off winter too quick

Edited January 12, 2011 by john pike

[ZONE 51]

Thanks Coast. and JP ^ post above, it does feel like many have given up on real cold and snow, i think its partly because we had such an incredible december! if we think about it imagine it didn't occur, then many more would be more excited about whats developing for next week! we need close eye on the models for end of wkend and next week....

[ZONE 51]

==LOCAL FLOOD WATCH==

From wednesday a.m 12th january to sunday 16th january late p.m

Periods of heavy rain over the next 5days.

.Local road flooding

.Risk of streams and rivers flooding.

If the weekend rains do occur then rivers may still have the risk of flooding after this period watch.

-

Flood watch by nimbilus.

Edited January 12, 2011 by nimbilus

[Vince]

did notice large blobs of sleet hitting the cars around 01.30 hrs this morning ,temp was around +2.5 .very unexpected

[john mac]

What a horrible day dull, damp and TBH it dosnt feel mild

[95 Degrees]

What a horrible day dull, damp and TBH it dosnt feel mild

I second that comment, shocking day one of those where it might as well be night-time it's so dark, December flattened this month for interesting weather! hope this up-coming cold spell from 19th onwards at least brings some sun cuse this weather is so pointless!

[Essexwader]

With temperatures upto 9°C here today I thought it felt warm.

On the subject of further snow in SE Essex I'm predicting nothing significant for the rest of this winter.

Why? well during December I ordered some Ice Grips ( none available) They've now arrived and are currently of no use; so now we have them I'm of the opinion that they'll not be required this side of the 2011 summer.

[john pike]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/bom/run/bom-0-240.png

long way out but to lighten the mood :smiliz19:

[yamkin]

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/bom/run/bom-0-240.png

long way out but to lighten the mood :smiliz19:

And with -4C uppers :cold:

[msx999]

12oC is what my car thermo is recording, feels really nice outside actually.