London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[ZONE 51]

==WEATHERWATCH==

5.30am The Next 36HRS

.HEAVY RAIN

.THUNDER

.periods of heavy rain has the potential to bring surface flooding, depending on how prolonged and heavy the risk for local floods is not high at this stage. Their is also a risk of thunder, especially coast.

.COASTAL GALES

.winds at times very strong on the south coast and near to coast.

-

nimbilus.

[Jayces]

Well, I said i'd eat my hat if we got any settling snow so I will pop it back in the fridge for now ;-)

As already mentioned, time to to take a break and savour the nearly pleasently mild temps we are forecast to get over the next week or so before winter may return towards the end of the month.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Jayces

[Coast]

Well, I said i'd eat my hat if we got any settling snow so I will pop it back in the fridge for now ;-)

Saving it for another day though?

[pureasthedriven]

One of those times when you think, 'if it was cold enough then we'd be absolutely buried'. Absolutely thumping it down with rain here in big, fat bursts. Have to say, if it a'int going to be snow or sunshine then I do love wildly heavy rain.

[snow raven]

things looking promising from the 20th onwards (according to model thread).

I'm looking forward to the brief milder conditions next week, it's these 'middle' temps which I detest, what we've had for the last week or so.... double digits next weeks should be nice (I know it will be wet)... then back to the freezer for more snow,

I hope so - I'm having serious withdrawal symptoms from snow. I want to see the streets all clean and white again (all be it before the sludge sets in!), instead of dull and wet.

Plus my lamp-post needs a 2nd purpose again - as a home for icicles and to help me spot snowflakes

[thevalley]

I hope so - I'm having serious withdrawal symptoms from snow. I want to see the streets all clean and white again (all be it before the sludge sets in!), instead of dull and wet.

Plus my lamp-post needs a 2nd purpose again - as a home for icicles and to help me spot snowflakes

Horrible horrible day driving to work in heavy rain. dark dank miserable weather-In the middle of our fantastic super cold spell I not only got used to the cold but started to take the snow for granted, I wont do that again-I really need my snow and frost fix. I always think people are trying to wind us coldly lovers up when they say they love mild winter weather and cant wait for the Atlantic to wake up -so folks here we have it 10 days of mild wet bleak mush where everything looks dull and dirty . Oh well better search for my happy pills and get some artificial sun rays as I could be suffering from SAD. . .

[SussexmarkyMark]

Horrible horrible day driving to work in heavy rain. dark dank miserable weather-In the middle of our fantastic super cold spell I not only got used to the cold but started to take the snow for granted, I wont do that again-I really need my snow and frost fix. I always think people are trying to wind us coldly lovers up when they say they love mild winter weather and cant wait for the Atlantic to wake up -so folks here we have it 10 days of mild wet bleak mush where everything looks dull and dirty . Oh well better search for my happy pills and get some artificial sun rays as I could be suffering from SAD. . .

Beautiful day now though. Cloud and rain seems to be moving to our north. Just hit 10c under blue skies on the Sussex coast. Far from 'dull and dirty'

Edited January 7, 2011 by SussexmarkyMark

[camiscool]

Guys we should be pleased we didn't get any snow..it's bright and dry today and we finally have a small break from. the bitter temps those who are getting snow up north are not getting very much...all this leads too is slushy mess on the side of the roads and slate grey skies...SO ENJOY THIS BEFORE WE GO BACK INTO THE FREEZER AND GET BURIED IN SNOW

[ZONE 51]

Torrential pulses of of rain and gusty winds, very yellow sky over the s and w...

[camiscool]

Heavy rain now

[Upgrade]

Horrible horrible day driving to work in heavy rain. dark dank miserable weather-In the middle of our fantastic super cold spell I not only got used to the cold but started to take the snow for granted, I wont do that again-I really need my snow and frost fix. I always think people are trying to wind us coldly lovers up when they say they love mild winter weather and cant wait for the Atlantic to wake up -so folks here we have it 10 days of mild wet bleak mush where everything looks dull and dirty . Oh well better search for my happy pills and get some artificial sun rays as I could be suffering from SAD. . .

I cycled for an hour through that stuff this morning! How i laughed..... looks like round 2 has arrived just in time for the evening rush hour. Another saturation beckons.

Yes i think people are on the wind up too, thankfully they are all slapping each other on the back in the "any sign of mild" thread.

Hopefully they will have egg on their faces in a few days!

Now we all have to bear Darren Bett's sickly "at least it will be mild" smile over the next few days as we peer through the semi-darkness at the rain lashed, miserable streets.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Upgrade

[vortex_liam]

We can see on the radar with the main part of the low there is more precipitation. I'd keep them warnings out for any areas that flood easly. The feilds and most grassy areas are water-logged and are turning into big mud puddles. Take care if you live near a river that bursts its bank!

[Jayces]

I think we may have to face reality that the atlantic has returned with a vengence and at the moment every day the models are pushing the return of cold slowly back......

I hope we get another cold spell but have this nagging feeling we may have to wait until sometime in Feb for our next shot but hopefully it will be another memorbale one before the return of Spring.

[95 Degrees]

met office looks good for the cold to return late jan/feb, we'll need to keep a close eye on the future models,charts during this boring spell of weather and hope the cold threat dosn't retreat

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jan 2011 to Saturday 5 Feb 2011:

After a milder spell of weather in Central and Southern parts through the middle of January, it is expected to become colder from the north across all parts at the end of January and into the start of February. Temperatures are expected to return to near or below average, perhaps well below average at times. Unsettled and sometimes windy weather is expected through this period, with showers or longer spells of rain. This is likely to turn to snow at times, especially in the north, and over high ground in the south. Some dry and brighter interludes are also expected, but with the risk of sharp frosts and overnight fog.

Updated: 1154 on Fri 7 Jan 2011

[john pike]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

more colder members showing from 16th onwards

long way out but worth keeping an eye on

[ZONE 51]

====WEATHERWATCH===

.TORRENTIAL RAIN

.GUSTY WINDS

.THUNDER RISK

. FLOODING

-Very Heavy Rain is moving across our region now, falling onto very wet and saturated ground, their is already local flooding from earlier rainfall, this next period is likely to cause road flooding, river would respond and rise, another problem seems to be that the ground is hard further down from the freeze, open parks and fields are becoming lakes in my local area due to water not absorbing, this effect will in turn rise river levels.

-

nimbilus.

[yamkin]

I thought it was meant to be milder today It's currently 5.5c right now which in my book is not really mild

I've got this feeling the colder conditions will set in a lot quicker than what the models are currently showing.

[yamkin]

I'm going to be looking at mid month onwards as GFS has been showing a trend towards colder contions for sometime now. Even the MetO's 16-30 day outlook for over a week has also been trending towards colder conditions.

To kick off a snow fest day, let's start with GFS 12z 252h 19th Jan

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3242.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn32417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

just for fun but keep an eye on these

[yamkin]

Will Hand is going for a colder period around the second half of January

So a dreary, foggy and rainy week ahead for us on Dartmoor, although it will be mild, possibly exceptionally so. Make the most of the mild though as there are signs now that the second half of January could see a return to bitterly cold winter conditions with more heavy snow. As always, I'll keep you posted on this site.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

[charlton north-downs]

Looking at the 8.2 Kilometer run on BBC sport in Edinburgh this afternoon which was snowbound and very picturesque could we in the South East live with the weather that Scotland gets maybe in the Lower Highlands . Would just love to have their climate .Oh well I just have this nasty feeling that the best part of winter has been and gone. Hope I am wrong

[Great Plum]

Yamkin... I think will hand has been saying this for a while...

Bit of a ramp coming up... One of my colleague's husband works for Surrey Highways and they are briefed regularly in regards to the weather... (I don't think it's the met) anyway, they've been told by them (this was on Tuesday this week) that there's a 40% chance of another Feb1947! My colleague asked me if this was 'bad'!! Lol anyway, it's just a ramp but thought I'd pass it on!

[yamkin]

Yamkin... I think will hand has been saying this for a while...

Bit of a ramp coming up... One of my colleague's husband works for Surrey Highways and they are briefed regularly in regards to the weather... (I don't think it's the met) anyway, they've been told by them (this was on Tuesday this week) that there's a 40% chance of another Feb1947! My colleague asked me if this was 'bad'!! Lol anyway, it's just a ramp but thought I'd pass it on!

Great Plum, You're right about Will Hand saying for a while it will get colder after mid January.

Croydon Council have been ordered to check salt/grit amounts for a possible severe cold period from mid January. Needless to say that new salt/grit delivery already delivered. Croydon Council get's their paid forecasts from the MetO. They seem very confident of this colder period occuring.

Ramp all you like. You know me, I'm the Ramper of Croydon :lol:

Edited January 8, 2011 by yamkin

[john mac]

Getting cold here temps 1c dews -1c

[yamkin]

Great Plum mentioned earlier on about someone saying we could be looking at Feb 1947 winter. I've been doing some researching and I'll tell you this, this scenario is very possible.

In January 1947, the temperature was on average a mild 14C to start with, but the temperature dropped significantly from 21st January. This was due to High Pressure over Scandinavia which formed on 20th January. This subsequently forced the Low Pressures across the Atlantic to go South of the UK resulting in penetrating Easterly winds which brought substantial snowfall firstly to the East and South East then further inland.

The Easterly winds continued into February 1947 giving further substantial snowfall with sub zero temperatures day and night. Transport was severely disrupted along with fuel,coal & electricity supplies. Food shortages resulted in rationing.

The beginning of March 1947 also saw more substanial snowfall and then came milder conditions later on which caused the Great Floods of 1947.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7xPmYO8jPs&NR=1

Did you know that during the substantial snowfall in 1963, many said that there were not enough Snow Ploughs :o

Norway is expecting extreme colder conditions in two weeks.

Last time AO (Arctic Ossilasjon) index was so low at the end of December (see graph), was measured under - 40 degrees in southern Norway 1 Christmas Day. Now is the forecast for the second half of January, almost as low http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=no&u=http://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article1571867.ece&ei=RdsoTYrLJMaJhQeyrYyeAg&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBwQ7gEwAA&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article1571867.ece%26hl%3Den%26prmd%3Divns

Edited January 9, 2011 by yamkin