London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[crazy_diamond]

Just wandered out for some lunch, blimey it's ruddy cold out there (Brentwood, Essex), wind has picked up, too!

CD

[Tomboy21]

is it just me or is this topic extremely quiet today?

cold and windy here in chelmsford, cant feel or smell the snow coming yet.

talkign of which anyone else know what i mean about that smell of snow?

[foreverchanges]

is it just me or is this topic extremely quiet today?

cold and windy here in chelmsford, cant feel or smell the snow coming yet.

talkign of which anyone else know what i mean about that smell of snow?

Sort of!

Working in Lewes and it seems to be getting colder. However the "snow event" for Friday seems to good to be true. However the weather will always throw up suprises to confound us mere mortals.

[crazy_diamond]

is it just me or is this topic extremely quiet today?

cold and windy here in chelmsford, cant feel or smell the snow coming yet.

talkign of which anyone else know what i mean about that smell of snow?

Hi Tb2

I think everyone is lurking in the Model Discussion, trying to work out whether it will or won't snow in these parts over the next couple of days. If snow verifies, then you'll not be able to move in here If it doesn't then we'll all go head banging .

I know what you mean about the "smell" of snow, can't quite define it, but certainly recognisable.

CD

currently in Brentwood, Essex

Edited January 5, 2011 by crazy_diamond

[frozencanals]

is it just me or is this topic extremely quiet today?

cold and windy here in chelmsford, cant feel or smell the snow coming yet.

talkign of which anyone else know what i mean about that smell of snow?

Yep I know what you mean about smelling the arrival of snow. Snowy weather does have a smell all of its own but I cannot explain what it smells like... :-)

just driven from London up to Nottingham and went through a couple of heavy wintry showers in North Leicestershire that I was not expecting, even had about 1 minute of wet snow before it switched back to rain...

We will have to keep an eye on Friday morning, it might be interesting or just a very damp squib

Cheers

FC

[Nick F]

As I mentioned in MOD thread, knife-edge to whether or not there could be some snow on the northern/western extent of the rain clearing the SE tomorrow night, GFS shows colder and drier air (dew points of 0C) arriving perhaps just in time from the north in the evening to undercut the precip. Even this close it's not cut and dry though.

[camiscool]

Rain or snow is the question.....but probably rain

[nanu]

well a couple of the radio stations i tuned into this morning were saying heavy snow for tomorrow night onwards for the capital... so it caught me by surprise when they said that... gritters out this afternoon, hmmm could be, but then heard that all before and it just rained <_<

Just a case of radar and lamp post watching then

[Tomboy21]

thanks for the reply about the smell of snow guys! lol glad im not the only one!

fine freezing rain here in chelmsford, getting colder too!

[ZONE 51]

Based on what ??

Hi, i mostly use GFS, and do a weatherWatch when were in the 36hr time frame, then the high res ppn outputs..

The risk is their and its the type of event we could call 'washout or whiteout' its a fine line.

[Harry]

Not feeling notably cold in London at the moment I have to say, certainly doesn't feel cold enough for anything more than sleety/wet snow. That said, my body is still aclimatised to -5 to -10C temperatures so 1-2C feels pleasantly mild at the moment

NW icons are suggesting rain throughout for my location, and my inclination at the moment is that it is a fair analysis.

[msx999]

I also heard on the radio about a meto advisory for heavy snow from tomorrow midnight going into firday morning - any more news about this. Most of England is in Yellow on Meto...

[vortex_liam]

5.6*c I mean do you think its gunna change? for snow tommorow? forget it

[Jayces]

If we have disruptive settling snow in London in the next 48 hours I will eat my hat.

Sure on places like the downs yes but not down to the lower levels, I just can't see it.

If we do get any it will soon be washed away.

Oh and just to prove how difficult it is at the moment you have posts on the same page in the model thrread showing charts demonstrating a 'beasterley' in 10 days time and temperatures in double figures. It's gonna be one or the other but that far out nobody knows, heck we don't even know what is going to happen in the next 2 days let alone 10.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Jayces

[Don]

Well, certainly nothing to get excited about after viewing the latest BBC national and regional forecasts for the SE. Rain tomorrow night and Friday with the briefest periods of wet snow possible for one or two areas north of London. All very different to this time last year! This place was in meltdown now with heavy snow starting to fall in many places in the south.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Don

[willinkent]

I have pre-booked the hilton at gatwick for tomorrow night just in case going on from this mornings forecasts.....am flying 8am friday. I want to get to Denmark this time (2nd December, 8-10 inches snow here,trains online say fine, trains at station no go, stansted open, M25 gridlocked with abandoned vehicles, still awaiting my insurance claim)....where my brother still has 1.5 metres of snow.....yippie.... and more forecast whilst im there.... yippie..... :smiliz19:

Edited January 5, 2011 by willinkent

[yamkin]

hello yamkin

i agree with you about exciting times ahead

the charts are still unsure where this low is going

look at the ensembles

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

very rare we see confusion so close

look at the blue line( Control run)

that would make gfs look mild

i think friday could cause a few surprises

and we will not know until right at the last minute

a question for you yamkin

do you remember before the last cold spell the models

had a load of problems with a low coming in and got it wrong

do you not think this seems similar

john

Hi John,

Good question. It is very possible that there will be enough cool uppers pushing slightly further South to give even the lower parts snow for a time. The models we are seeing give us all a good coverage, but this is where the MetO boffs come in and use their incredible knowledge. Referencing the latest models, it is hard to see how 80% of the SE will get snow, but the MetO have still got their Advisory out which makes me think that they are confident of snow being more widespread than what GFS, ECM & UKMO are showing.

On another note, the MetO are confident that it will get colder after the middle of the month. They have been saying this for a week or so now and the GFS started showing the Easterly trend yesterday.

[ZONE 51]

We won't know until the event happens, unless a significant change presents it self soon.. it is a fine line, but that fine line for low ground especially is the difference between heavy sleet and it turning to wet snow..which by that stage the air is chilled by the snowflakes, then the flakes join up forming big flakes then overpowering the wet ground if really heavy, then inches build up quickly, someplaces are to get much snow inland, hills more likely of course, but not only!

[willinkent]

Eventhough I want Gatwick to be open.....the situation is extremely nowcast..... erm ok chances are low but evaporative cooling can change the situation massively..... as can the movement of that low.... if evaporative cooling can take over i think southern england can see what i saw in the early 90's in the isle of man... rain for four hours, heavy mind, then temp dropped, sleet for an hour, then heavy wet snow for a few hours, then it laid, then we had 9 hours of powder snowfall and a foot of snow was the result..... before that we had nine forecasts of snow which was actually rain.... I was off school the day that happened ill with flu. It was amazing to watch.... Please let me take off first.....

[yamkin]

Eventhough I want Gatwick to be open.....the situation is extremely nowcast..... erm ok chances are low but evaporative cooling can change the situation massively..... as can the movement of that low.... if evaporative cooling can take over i think southern england can see what i saw in the early 90's in the isle of man... rain for four hours, heavy mind, then temp dropped, sleet for an hour, then heavy wet snow for a few hours, then it laid, then we had 9 hours of powder snowfall and a foot of snow was the result..... before that we had nine forecasts of snow which was actually rain.... I was off school the day that happened ill with flu. It was amazing to watch.... Please let me take off frst.....

I remember when it started raining here and then we had several hours of heavy snow. Everything came to a standstill. I think this happened last winter or the one before. Thursday/Friday could have a similar set up.

[Great Plum]

Yamkin, have your council had anything from the met un regards to tomorrow night?

We had an email warning of a 'disruptive rush hour!'

[Cheese Rice]

Forecast

[snow raven]

Not feeling notably cold in London at the moment I have to say, certainly doesn't feel cold enough for anything more than sleety/wet snow. That said, my body is still aclimatised to -5 to -10C temperatures so 1-2C feels pleasantly mild at the moment

NW icons are suggesting rain throughout for my location, and my inclination at the moment is that it is a fair analysis.

To be honest Harry, I agree with what you say. However, we all know what snow is like - unpredictable, so fingers crossed for 24 hours time... (although I do think it will be more a North London upwards event)

Forecast

Do you have a link to where that is quoted from?

[Cheese Rice]

Do you have a link to where that is quoted from?

Whoops sorry it's my own

[willinkent]

I really think the met and people below the 'Black line' need to be nowcasting rather than looking at models..... evaporative cooling will bring snow unexpectedly.... always does always will do.... if precip is heavy enough it will turn to snow..... expect the unexpected..... :smiliz19: I know, Ive seen it with my own eyes......