London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[Great Plum]

One thing I would say Yamkin is that at the moment, pressure isn't progged to be high over Scandinavia...

Still, nothing wrong with dreaming huh?

[yamkin]

One thing I would say Yamkin is that at the moment, pressure isn't progged to be high over Scandinavia...

Still, nothing wrong with dreaming huh?

Yes, but in 1947, High Pressure formed over Scandinavia on 20th January and the rest is history. Let's not forget there were mild conditions leading up to the 20th Jan just like the mild we are going to get next week.

Norway is now expecting extreme cold from the Arctic in two weeks time. This does show that the Northern Hemisphere part of Europe looks like heading for extreme colder conditions http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=no&u=http://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article1571867.ece&ei=RdsoTYrLJMaJhQeyrYyeAg&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBwQ7gEwAA&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article1571867.ece%26hl%3Den%26prmd%3Divns :cold:

Edited January 8, 2011 by yamkin

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

still showing a cool down from the 17th

i will have the kontroll please :smiliz19:

[LomondSnowstorm]

The slight difference between '47 and this winter is that if we had a comparable late January/February and March we would have had three incredibly cold and snowy winter months out of four, and actually given the start to this month then Scotland would only have been around/slightly above average for about 10 days in the whole late November/mid March period.

[ZONE 51]

Next week could be a problem with flooding as all the rainfronts sweep across over just a few days, windy, mild and very wet after monday...

We will get lots more snow this winter down here, it don't need to be severe cold as we know, we can look for snow events after next week...

[Great Plum]

Lovely frosty morning here... Just around freezing too!

[yamkin]

Just off to see son play his football match and the temp is currently 2.5C

[Jayces]

Great Plum, You're right about Will Hand saying for a while it will get colder after mid January.

Croydon Council have been ordered to check salt/grit amounts for a possible severe cold period from mid January. Needless to say that new salt/grit delivery already delivered. Croydon Council get's their paid forecasts from the MetO. They seem very confident of this colder period occuring.

Ramp all you like. You know me, I'm the Ramper of Croydon :lol:

It's fun to ramp but I find at that sort of time frame it more often than not leads to dissapointment.

You only have to look at the Meto 6-15 and 16-30 day outputs updated today to see that rather then being confident about a severe cold spell more likely they were being cautious with their warning to Croydon as todays update does not have much in the way of cold or snow for us for the next 30 days unfortunatly.

Of course it works both ways at this range and the cold could well return but the signs at the moment do not support this.

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Jan 2011 to Sunday 23 Jan 2011:

Remaining unsettled with outbreaks of sometimes heavy rain or showers throughout, particularly in western parts, while some drier interludes are likely in the south. The rain may sometimes turn to snow but will be limited to Scottish mountains at first. It will also be breezy at times, with a risk of gales in western parts. At first, temperatures will be above average for most, although it will be closer to average in the far north. However, midway through the period it is likely to become colder once again in northern parts and, later, also in the south. The snow risk will also slowly creep southwards, although still mainly confined to hills except across Scotland, with overnight frost becoming increasingly common.

Updated: 1145 on Sun 9 Jan 2011

and

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Jan 2011 to Monday 7 Feb 2011:

Unsettled and sometimes windy weather is expected through this period, with showers or longer spells of rain. This is likely to turn to snow at times, especially in the north and over high ground in the south. Some drier and brighter interludes are also expected, but with the risk of sharp frosts and overnight fog. Temperatures are expected to be generally near or below average, perhaps well below average at times across northeastern parts of England and Scotland, though a few milder days are possible at first, especially in the south.

Updated: 1145 on Sun 9 Jan 2011

Of course things can and do change but at the moment I am not going to get excited, unless you live on the downs / chilterns I guess.

[john mac]

Beautiful sunny say here in the Essex countryside

[Cymro]

Rob McElwee's last shift is tonight folks - last forecast is at 10.52pm BBC One End of an Era.

[john mac]

Someone record it I'm gonna be out. They always get rid of the best ones

[Snow Run]

Someone record it I'm gonna be out. They always get rid of the best ones

Never say never!

When Monty Don had to leave Gardeners' World through ill health a couple of years ago, the BBC passed on the lead presenter's job to the relatively unknown Toby Buckland. Together with Alys Fowler and Joe Swift, they developed a new garden called 'Greenacre', the artificiality of which was never popular with viewers. The programme moved towards a rather annoying Top Gear style format, possibly useful for beginners but largely content-free for the experienced gardener.

This year, after prolonged protest from viewers, Monty Don is returning to present the programme from his own garden, assisted by the similarly experienced Carol Klein.

Sound like the BBC's approach to weather forecast presentation - perhaps we need to apply some 'viewer power' like the gardeners!

Yamkin, thanks for a fascinating summary of 1947. The probability of a repeat may be low, but there's nothing wrong with a ramp! If it does happen to any degree, I hope it's over by the time of our Half Marathon on Feb 27th. There have been a huge number of road and cross country races cancelled so far this winter, and that represents a lot of lost work for event organisers and lost income for charities.

[john mac]

Yes I love yamkins attitude if there's not much in the way of cold and snow roll back the years and talk about the good old days

[yamkin]

Right then, the GFS 12Z is out and Paul B earlier today showed that GFS 06Z was a mild outlier http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67791-model-output-discussion-thread/page__view__findpost__p__2027111

12Z 174h 16th Jan, The colder air filters into Scotland and moves South

12Z 276h 21st Jan, A slightly mild interlude in between

12z 324h 23rd Jan - 384h 25th Jan, in deep FI, the colder conditions sets in

Edited January 9, 2011 by yamkin

[Great Plum]

If only that nice north easterly outbreak could move a few hundred miles west...

[yamkin]

ECM 12Z is also showing colder conditions setting in

From the ECM 12Z 168h 16th Jan, Colder air filtering into Scotland and then inland

Just look at the High Pressure forming over Scandinavia. Could we see an Easterly forming and heading our way

[Great Plum]

That ECM is a real eye opener... Chionomaniac's most recent post in the model thread may cheer some people up too!

[95 Degrees]

quite chilly here now,temperature: 0.7C, dp: -1.2C

Edited January 9, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[Great Plum]

Anyone for a ramp?

Just posted this on the model discussion from tonight's 18z!

I know I shouldn't, but I have to ramp up these charts on the, oh yes, 20th January, now a mere 264 hours out!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2642.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

I'm sure it won't happen like that but good to see an easterly progged inside 300 hours!

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110109/18/288/prectypeuktopo.png

just for fun :smiliz19:

or maybe a trend ???

ensembles could be interesting tonight

[Jayces]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110109/18/288/prectypeuktopo.png

just for fun :smiliz19:

or maybe a trend ???

ensembles could be interesting tonight

Predicting snow 12 days away, that really is just for fun ;-)

My forecast, wet, windy and mild until the start of February and then winter will return. No scientific reason behind that, just a gut feeling :-)

[Helvellyn]

colder than expected tonight. -2.6c and dead calm.

[ZONE 51]

===WEATHERWATCH===

Monday evening 10th to friday 14th january

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING

Periods of wet or very wet weather are likely through this week, their be long bright breaks inbetween the rainstorms and feeling mild or even very mild toward the middle of the week.

All the rain coming in one week means flooding is likely at times. Their also be strong winds on some weather fronts, we may get thunder with the channel and southcoast most at risk.

-

weatherwatch by nimbilus.

[Lampostwatcher]

So a wet week coming up with potential flooding looking at the latest radar

[mulzy]

Despite the efforts of Yamkin and co to keep spirits up, it is now evidently clear that most of January is going to be fairly zonal - mild to average temperatures. A little unclear what will happen after the 20th - might cool down a bit but defintely no "back in the freezer" conditions.

Sorry to burst the optimism bubble, but the next 2-3 weeks not looking good as far as snow and cold weather are concerned in this region. February might to be different of course....

Edited January 10, 2011 by mulzy