London & South East England - In Between The Cold Spells Discussion Part 30

[Jayces]

I'm going to be looking at mid month onwards as GFS has been showing a trend towards colder contions for sometime now. Even the MetO's 16-30 day outlook for over a week has also been trending towards colder conditions.

To kick off a snow fest day, let's start with GFS 12z 252h 19th Jan

So what happened to our snow fest then for Wednesday?

The weather couldn't be more different with the forecast being warmer and drier then this chart is showing, just showing why there really is no point in getting excited about charts so far ahead because invariably we are let down when the actual time arrives.

Now had that chart being showing now for wednesday then there would be reason to be excited.

[yamkin]

So what happened to our snow fest then for Wednesday?

The weather couldn't be more different with the forecast being warmer and drier then this chart is showing, just showing why there really is no point in getting excited about charts so far ahead because invariably we are let down when the actual time arrives.

Now had that chart being showing now for wednesday then there would be reason to be excited.

I was only showing what the chart looked like with humour :lol:

The models have been showing so many variations for sometime now. ECM 12Z looks like sticking to a much colder theme. I wonder what GFS 18Z is going to show tonight.

[Great Plum]

All that can be said is we'll have high pressure for a few days and then, well, anything goes!!

[yamkin]

All that can be said is we'll have high pressure for a few days and then, well, anything goes!!

I've got this feeling that GFS & UKMO will be falling into line with ECM

[ZONE 51]

Now cold is in the reliable time frame its back to the yo~YO ing models as to what might actually evolve at and after the weekend..

[ZONE 51]

===RAIN-WATCH===

Monday 17th January

#Heavy rain

#Flooding

Heavy rain is moving in this morning, a large area showing on the MetOffice Radar near and on south coast moving inland, GFS 00z shows this, the rain is likely to be prolonged and create a very wet day, local flooding is possible.

Further rain may affect the region into Tuesday.

-

Note: possible lightning/thunder over the next 24hrs Especially the channel/coast

WeatherWatch by nimbilus.

-

Edit: The large area of widespread and heavy rain now across much the region, moving into London.

Edited January 17, 2011 by nimbilus

[Great Plum]

I've got this feeling that GFS & UKMO will be falling into line with ECM

I hope so... Hasn't happened this morning though!

[yamkin]

I hope so... Hasn't happened this morning though!

Looks like ECM is falling into line with GFS & UKMO. I wouldn't be surprised if GFS & UKMO start showing E/NE flow later on and ECM shows High Pressure instead :lol:

[Coast]

Note: possible lightning/thunder over the next 24hrs Especially the channel/coast

Emphasis on the possible though!!!!

[Great Plum]

Looks like ECM is falling into line with GFS & UKMO. I wouldn't be surprised if GFS & UKMO start showing E/NE flow later on and ECM shows High Pressure instead :lol:

That tends to happen doesn't it...

Oh well, a week of quiet benign (and hopefully sunny and frosty weather) before the mother of all easterlies before a further week of probably more quiet benign weather to come!

[Jayces]

That tends to happen doesn't it...

Oh well, a week of quiet benign (and hopefully sunny and frosty weather) before the mother of all easterlies before a further week of probably more quiet benign weather to come!

Lol.

Looking at the latest Meto and various models at the moment a swift return to snowy conditions looks about as likely as it would in July!

Luckily for us changes in the models can happen quite dramatically within a short time frame so we can only hope.

[ZONE 51]

Some ACTIVE weather possible or id say likely heading our way this eve/overnight, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, lightning and thunder, even a chance of THUNDERSTORMS never know what might turn up!!

Thought more would be interested in this..?

Edited January 17, 2011 by nimbilus

[slb97]

Hello neighbours! I am definitely interested in thunderstorm potential and did see that GFS has a storm forecast of 51% for my area so you never know! I can see some hectic rain on the way by the radar but not sure if it will reach this far east as it appears to be rotating?? If we can't get any snow then bring on the storms lol

[Mike Storm]

well it was bloody wet this morning with flooded roads all over the place

[vortex_liam]

Watching the cells aproaching excter to bourmouth. I forcasted as soon as i saw them that they would expolode!!!

[xerxes]

Some ACTIVE weather possible or id say likely heading our way this eve/overnight, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, lightning and thunder, even a chance of THUNDERSTORMS never know what might turn up!!

Thought more would be interested in this..?

Being a storm fan I agree. Certainly some heavy rain now from the first pulse although developments near Bournemouth now look interesting. Some intense rainfall heading NE

[Upgrade]

well it was bloody wet this morning with flooded roads all over the place

Yes, i cycled through it to work! Ugh! There have been several big soakings for London since new year. Maybe the weather is going to settle down now.

Is it just me or do we get more of these intense rainstorm events nowadays then say 10 years ago? London is more known for light drizzle than hours and hours of frontal rainfall but we seem to get it more now.

From lookig at the charts though, and what some are saying in the model thread, we can forget about snow for the rest of the winter.

To be honest, i've had my fix , December was so special , if we got no more i wouldnt be annoyed.

Edited January 17, 2011 by Upgrade

[95 Degrees]

Just had a nice heavy shower

[Upgrade]

Flash Warnings issued :

London & South East England: Bracknell Forest

Brighton + Hove

E Sussex

Kent

Medway

Reading

Slough

Surrey

W Berkshire

Windsor + Maidenhead

Wokingham

Heavy Rain 2345 Mon 17 0800 Tue 18

Heavy rain will move eastwards through southern counties of England late this evening and into Tuesday morning, giving 15 mm of rain in three hours, with overall totals likely to exceed 30 mm locally.

Given saturated ground there is a risk of localised flooding.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the latest Environment Agency, Floodline, and Flood Warnings in force.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 2142 Mon 17 Jan

[95 Degrees]

Very heavy rain for about half an hour now in Hove, this is becoming quite an interesting night and localised flooding in some areas for sure!

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2042.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.png

very different charts from earlier and they scream

potential for end january start february

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

closer time frame would give a strong chance of snow for

the south east sunday and early part of next week

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif

fridays fax shows a weak easterly but worth

watching these over the next couple of days

to see how they unfold

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

ensembles look good as well

winters over :lol:

[snowydayz]

Oh the rain!!!! It's chucking it down here and has been for two hours now, garden is underwater at the bottom of the garden and it's creeping up the lawn now, not normally like that in January.

Some nice looking charts for another cold snap, I wonder if we will get some more of the lovely white stuff????

Snowy

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

looks pretty lively tonight

http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/

good link for radars and lightning data

[yamkin]

Flash Warnings issued :

London & South East England: Bracknell Forest

Brighton + Hove

E Sussex

Kent

Medway

Reading

Slough

Surrey

W Berkshire

Windsor + Maidenhead

Wokingham

Heavy Rain 2345 Mon 17 0800 Tue 18

Heavy rain will move eastwards through southern counties of England late this evening and into Tuesday morning, giving 15 mm of rain in three hours, with overall totals likely to exceed 30 mm locally.

Given saturated ground there is a risk of localised flooding.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the latest Environment Agency, Floodline, and Flood Warnings in force.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 2142 Mon 17 Jan

MetO will need to include London in the Flash warning as well

[ZONE 51]

Its been heavy for a couple of hours, really increasing the chance that a local large field thats got big ponds on it will be a lake soon! i really think the ground is still hard further down from the freeze, increasing flooding on grassland..

An exciting night..

Edited January 18, 2011 by nimbilus