Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[keithlucky]

Seems to be a general agreement amongst different forecasters that from Wednesday onwards a pretty cold 3 to 5 days ahead .with sleet and snow at times ,could be a very snowy week coming up.Hoping most of the showers occur overnight with temps around 0c plenty of chances of overnight snow cover.(BAR THE MET LOL)

Edited March 6, 2011 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

You must be looking at different models and forecasts to me then Keith if you get the impression that Wales will get any snow this week let alone a lot!

Cannot even see that lowland Scotland will see very much really from this set up. A brief colder shot to the north and east before damp warm sectors over Wales and the south at the end of this week.

Even the most optimistic model for a colder shot this week does little to suggest snow hopes. Maxima too high Wednesday for Wintry stuff:

GFS does show colder at the end of the week but too far out still, not really supported by the other models, for example this:

Edited March 6, 2011 by Tonyh

[keithlucky]

You must be looking at different models and forecasts to me then Keith if you get the impression that Wales will get any snow this week let alone a lot!

Cannot even see that lowland Scotland will see very much really from this set up. A brief colder shot to the north and east before damp warm sectors over Wales and the south at the end of this week.

As i said weatheronline weather outlook suggests pretty cold from Wednesday night onwards even down south with a N west flow wintry showers could well turn to snow overnight ,as often happens in march.

[TonyH]

OK we will see how Weatheronline (GFS based I guess) pans out this week, I think it is doubtful.

[J10]

There is a big difference between the models. The FAX Chart goes with the UKMO model which at the moment is forecasting a non event.

ECM is also reluctant.

However GFS has been going for a cold blast for a few days. Some of its runs have been suggesting the cold weather getting here for Thursday, but the operational has gone away from that, but not some of the ensembles.

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20110306;time=06;file=t850Abertawe~-~Swansea;sess=1718af7545c53e80ed73cc1ff22c9f44

But conversely it has upgraded the potential for next weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110306;time=06;ext=150;sess=80b34527fb5d5cc975fcb6848942fe16;file=tmp850

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110306;time=06;ext=159;sess=80b34527fb5d5cc975fcb6848942fe16;file=tmp850

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110306;time=06;ext=159;sess=80b34527fb5d5cc975fcb6848942fe16;file=h500slp

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110306;time=06;ext=159;sess=80b34527fb5d5cc975fcb6848942fe16;file=hgt850-1000

http://www.netweather.tv/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20110306;time=06;ext=144;sess=80b34527fb5d5cc975fcb6848942fe16;file=john

Given that the GFS operational run is one of the milder runs for mid next week, there remains considerable potential for a wintry blast, of course there is no guarantee this will happen.

One final wintry blast would suit me and then we can move onto spring weather.

Outside at the moment, glorious sunshine again.

[TonyH]

Agree with you Jackone. Getting a tan in the garden this afternoon listening to the birds singing.

Daffs being delayed by the hard frosts as only just coming into bloom.

[welshgritter]

My Netweather 'Freeze alert' long term forecasting is giving a 92% chance of snow next Sunday??? This Weather is mad !

I have pretty much had a fully week gritting. I have done more this week than I did for the whole of Feb! Gets rid of the mountain of Rock Salt I got anyway. More of the cold and a bit of the white stuff please!

Your local Welsh Gritting Machine.

[welshgritter]

Will it ................?? http://www.dailystar.co.uk/posts/view/180018/Snow-joke-White-stuff-s-on-the-way-/

[TonyH]

Out of the two guess who I would go with?

[TonyH]

Try not to take PWS too seriously.

Remarkable daily range again today, from -6.2c to +9.4c.

A very sunny, frosty and bone dry start to March for most of Wales.

Edited March 7, 2011 by Tonyh

[J10]

Try not to take PWS too seriously.

Remarkable daily range again today, from -6.2c to +9.4c.

A very sunny, frosty and bone dry start to March for most of Wales.

I agree with the comment about PWS, a bit more cloud here to start prevented a frost, but this soon cleared to give a gloriously sunny day.

GFS has downgraded today, however possibly some wintriness for the mid part this week, as opposed to snowiness.

Wouldn't be surprised though if we get nothing now.

[welshgritter]

Confidence has faded away on the freezealert data - no immediate cold weather for a considerable period of time - may even have seen the last of it!

[TonyH]

Another severe frost -7c low.

[welshgritter]

I need to get some sites in Lampeter....... bermuda shorts down here today.

[TonyH]

Indeed, the Arctic of Wales here!

17c range in temperature today, from -6.9c (the lowest of this spell), up to +9.9c this afternoon!

That's 4 nights below -6c in March, somewhat unprecedented.

Average of the nights minima so far -4.0c, while the days have averaged 9.7c.

A total change underway now, some much milder nights and a cloudier, damper theme for a while.

Edited March 8, 2011 by Tonyh

[TonyH]

No more ramping...Winter MUST be over

The colder model projections some were favouring for this week have most definitely not materialised, it's much milder, but only slightly damp. It will be interesting to see how dry March ends up, although more appreciable rain may fall over the coming weekend, then it looks like being mainly dry again next week.

[J10]

40mph winds today, not very nice weather at all.

Indeed, the Arctic of Wales here!

17c range in temperature today, from -6.9c (the lowest of this spell), up to +9.9c this afternoon!

That's 4 nights below -6c in March, somewhat unprecedented.

Average of the nights minima so far -4.0c, while the days have averaged 9.7c.

A total change underway now, some much milder nights and a cloudier, damper theme for a while.

There is a change today with a diurnal range of less than 2c here.

[TonyH]

Quite warm parts of Wales by next Wednesday with a SE flow:

[J10]

Quite warm parts of Wales by next Wednesday with a SE flow:

If that were to come off, it would be pretty sunny as well.

[Scarlet_Snow]

I'm actually looking forward to some warm weather now! Even though our snow chances are practically gone. Can't wait for the summer

[Snowmadsam]

I think its time for me to go into hibernation now until Autumn, see you in September

[TonyH]

Don't go there's more to the weather than snow and cold. Seems to be a lot of people that are only into those aspects though...their loss.

[J10]

Very nice day weather wise today with some warmth in the sun. Would be more than happy if it was wall to wall sunshine from now until October. Or even for July to more like Junes of recent years.

The odd thunderstorm too if I was bring picky.

[Stevetynant]

temp dipped to freezing driving home from Swansea tonight but rizing to 3.2c at the moment.

[georgiedre]

well i was suprised to see quitte a lot of snow on the mountains of snowdonia this morning! very nice to see some snow but hey summer is just around the corner!!!! lol hope we get a cold winter this time round!!!!!! allthough we had a lot of snow around my area.....