Wales Cymru Spring Weather Discussion Thread

[TonyH]

Doubt it. Today is actually close to average temperatures for February.

[andymusic]

Doubt it. Today is actually close to average temperatures for February.

well yes 5c - but that's still quite chilly and a couple of days ago GFS and other models had us around 8-9c for today

edit:- still very foggy and damp and fairly cold around here right now - and the radar now showing that huge wadge of precip coming in - what a waste - just a couple of centigrade further down in temps and it could have been snow for us - but - GFS 12z now also showing further improvements for monday - more encroachment into the UK by the high pressure - lower temps - who knows - more influence of the cold and a nice front - could still result in something wintry for Wales if these improvements continue!

Edited February 18, 2011 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Still looks good for sleet snow monday night with the front stallng over wales, at last a chance to see some white stuff again!

[J10]

Went out for a walk lunchtime, and a definite cold feeling with temps around 5c, quite a bit damper than yesterday and that didn't help.

There was a definite westward movement on the GFS, unfortunately South Wales is pretty much in the worst place for next few days and as a result I cannot see any wintriness, only my opinion and would love to be wrong.

If we were further east I would be much more optimistic given current trends.

However next week looking mild on all major charts, GFS, UKMO and ECM. So pretty much set in stone.

[TonyH]

Apart from the high ground most parts of Wales reached 6-8c today, close to average. Milder tomorrow, with a cool down again Monday, before the mild south-westerlies sweep in proper.

[Cymro]

Apart from the high ground most parts of Wales reached 6-8c today, close to average. Milder tomorrow, with a cool down again Monday, before the mild south-westerlies sweep in proper.

Wasn't mild at all today, 6-8 is average not mild - 10 is mild for this time of year. It didn't get above 5 degrees here in the Aman Valley.

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - the pub run - definitely closer to delivering the cold goodies tonight - and if this relentless march of the cold keeps coming west as I've said before - who knows what is eventually possible!

[J10]

GFS 18z - the pub run - definitely closer to delivering the cold goodies tonight - and if this relentless march of the cold keeps coming west as I've said before - who knows what is eventually possible!

As I said earlier full agreement next week for mild between GFS, ECM and UKMO.

To be honest I find tonight's GFS remarkable, but almost certainly wrong alas.

Wasn't mild at all today, 6-8 is average not mild - 10 is mild for this time of year. It didn't get above 5 degrees here in the Aman Valley.

Looking at Wales averages, the average Max temp for Wales in February is 6.59c (30 yr average 1971-2000) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html, so today's temps are probably slightly below average for Wales for Late February, but not that much in it.

[andymusic]

As I said earlier full agreement next week for mild between GFS, ECM and UKMO.

To be honest I find tonight's GFS remarkable, but almost certainly wrong alas.

How can the following charts be agreement from the GFS that it's gonna be mild? - and the 12z wasn't far away from the 18z tonight

These two charts aren't mild from the middle of next week either

night time

day time

and they get even colder still as the week goes on

[J10]

How can the following charts be agreement from the GFS that it's gonna be mild? - and the 12z wasn't far away from the 18z tonight

These two charts aren't mild from the middle of next week either

I think you missed the part of my comment, which makes the world of difference in this instance.

[andymusic]

I think you missed the part of my comment, which makes the world of difference in this instance.

Sorry Jackone but this is what you said

"As I said earlier full agreement next week for mild between GFS, ECM and UKMO"

I agree that the ECM and UKMO are going down the mild route but

the GFS hasn't been showing mild and has been progressively pushing the high pressure slowly westwards over a number of model runs in the last 24 hours

can you explain in a little more detail for me

thanks Andy

edit:- added to that the GFS 18z run isn't an outlier either - seems we have a game on again - will need the ECM & UKMO to backtrack somewhat - but you never know - this weekend could be very interesting for weather model watching!

Edited February 18, 2011 by andymusic

[J10]

Sorry Jackone but this is what you said

"As I said earlier full agreement next week for mild between GFS, ECM and UKMO"

I agree that the ECM and UKMO are going down the mild route but

the GFS hasn't been showing mild and has been progressively pushing the high pressure slowly westwards over a number of model runs in the last 24 hours

can you explain in a little more detail for me

thanks Andy

edit:- added to that the GFS 18z run isn't an outlier either - seems we have a game on again - will need the ECM & UKMO to backtrack somewhat - but you never know - this weekend could be very interesting for weather model watching!

There was full agreement on mild SW winds sweeping in crossing the UK bringing in tropical Maritime air to all parts. with the 12Hz runs

If we look at the maximum temps bring projected by the GFS 12Hz run the temps for Wales for Tuesday next week was 10-13c, and milder on subsequent days.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110218/12/123/ukmaxtemp.png

I found it ironic given that comment, that the 18Hz turned out as it did. Hence the emoticon after the 18Hz run.

[andymusic]

There was full agreement on mild SW winds sweeping in crossing the UK bringing in tropical Maritime air to all parts. with the 12Hz runs

If we look at the maximum temps bring projected by the GFS 12Hz run the temps for Wales for Tuesday next week was 10-13c, and milder on subsequent days.

http://www.netweathe...3/ukmaxtemp.png

I found it ironic given that comment, that the 18Hz turned out as it did. Hence the emoticon after the 18Hz run.

Ok, sorry, fair comment!

to be fair the 18z has really taken things a lot further and it will need verifying with tomorrows runs to give us any real faith in tonight's run - but it could well be possible and the sign of even better cold to come

[Jayfromcardiff]

Ok, sorry, fair comment!

to be fair the 18z has really taken things a lot further and it will need verifying with tomorrows runs to give us any real faith in tonight's run - but it could well be possible and the sign of even better cold to come

No snow next thursday please mate, have my driving test for the 3rd time and i need and want to pass lol!

[keithlucky]

Ok, sorry, fair comment!

to be fair the 18z has really taken things a lot further and it will need verifying with tomorrows runs to give us any real faith in tonight's run - but it could well be possible and the sign of even better cold to come

Well if the gfs is correct the met needs to get its act together ,its done more u turns than the uk government,

[J10]

Ok, sorry, fair comment!

to be fair the 18z has really taken things a lot further and it will need verifying with tomorrows runs to give us any real faith in tonight's run - but it could well be possible and the sign of even better cold to come

OK not a problem.

I am trying not to get carried away with this.

Anyway I have spent too long on here tonight

[welshgritter]

How are the models looking today all?

[J10]

How are the models looking today all?

Generally mild to sum up very quickly.

[TonyH]

max 13c here.

[Marcus_surfer]

+11C here this afternoon, very nice.

[J10]

Very pleasant earlier in the sunshine and car thermometer topped 10c, now misted over.

[andymusic]

Flippin freezing up here

lovely day earlier though

signs of some snow within our borders come 6am monday morning - and again this situation seems to be improving by the model run

could this expand further by sunday night/monday morning as the Atlantic once again trys to come in and move the cold air away

the cold/snow seems even more widespread than this morning's event

Just saw BBC NEWS 24 forecast and he's giving temps of 11c for Monday in the day - GFS doesn't go past 5c in my neck of the woods

But he did say the mountains and north east of Wales would see snow on Sunday night/Monday morning

Edited February 19, 2011 by andymusic

[Cwmbran Eira]

Country tracks forecast says an increasingly mild week ahead. Looks like that's it for this year.

Looking forward to the spring proper now.

What a boring few months we've had. To be expected after Dcember I suppose.

[DeepSnow]

Well its been mild here, 10c by day and 5-6c by night, wouldn't suprise me if we got mild weather now and then cold and snow some time in spring! Its nice to see things are starting to very slowly grow back now though, with the buds opening on some hedges/trees!

[TonyH]

I am worried about the garden hedges, they were part decimated last Winter, and Decembers extreme cold seems to have completed the job. Not many buds showing and just hoping for at least patches of green to appear during March, so hopefully they will recover.

No Daffs out yet but the honeysuckle is coming into leaf.

This has been a very mild February indeed.